A couple of readers and at least one blogger have called into question my assertion that the flu shot shortage might lead to more deaths than the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. My statement was based on official CDC statistics–36,000 deaths per year–and my assumption that a flu shot shortage could increase that number by a small amount (say 10 percent).

My critics make two points: first, that the official CDC mortality figure (uncritically repeated by the MSM) is wildly inflated; and second, that the flu shot is not particularly effective in preventing the flu.

As to the first point, reader Richard Morton puts the case this way:

[U]ntil 2001, the CDC reported flu, pneumonia and ILI
(influenza-like-illness) deaths as a single statistic, around 36,000 a year. In 2001, the CDC separated out the influenza deaths and the actual number of deaths attributed to influenza fell to 895, with pneumonia taking the lions share of the remainder….Latest statistics show that there were approximate 142 deaths in children under 18 attributed to flu in the 2003-2004 flu season.
here’s the link.

At lewrrockwell.com, John Keller makes a similar argument:

The “Deaths: Final Data for 2001″ report is an 8MB PDF. Skip it unless you want all the charts detailing deaths by race, age, and ethnicity. The 2002 preliminary report contains the interesting parts of the 2001 final report, as well as data from 2002. The second search result for J10 (the mortality code for flu) brings us to page 16 of 48, which contains the breakout of flu and pneumonia. Total flu deaths for 2002: 753. Pneumonia accounted for the other 65,231 deaths. Scrolling to the right are the numbers for 2001. Again, total flu deaths were under one thousand, coming in at 257. That’s right, less than a thousand people died of the flu in 2001 and 2002, according to the CDC’s own numbers.

Keller goes on to make a very good point. If 36,000 Americans are dying from the flu every year, why did the flu pandemic of 1968-69 only kill 34,000 people? Shouldn’t the number of deaths in a pandemic be much higher than that in a typical year?

Like several of my readers, Keller questions the effectiveness of the flu shot. Consider the children who died from the flu shot last winter. The CDC got vaccination histories for 101 of them. Keller writes:

Of those, 22 had received at least one flu shot, and 4 had received multiple flu shots. That puts the percentage of immunized children that died at just under 22% of all children (page 10 of 23, Cochi Presentation.) Further in the report we learn that the CDC’s own studies show they believe the flu vaccine to be only 16%-63% effective against the flu, while a French report shows 61% effectiveness against influenza-like-illness (without confirming that it’s actually the flu). According to a Harvard study, (Nowak presentation, page 26), only 22% of parents of children 6–23 months had them immunized, and only 30% of children under 18 were immunized. Now, I’m no Dr. John Lott when it comes to statistics (sic!?!), but if the ratio of immunized to non-immunized children in the total population (22%–30%) is nearly identical to the immunized to non-immunized ratio of children in an admittedly small sample of children that died (22%), the case could be made that the flu vaccine is largely worthless.

I’ll need to look into this further, but Morton and Keller make a strong enough case to make me question my uncritical acceptance of the CDC’s statistics. Given the CDC’s history, I should have known better.

More: Reader Michael Jones is willing to bet that the flu shot shortage does not lead to thousands of flu deaths this winter:

May I please make a comment about the vaccine shortage? I
disagree on one small point, and it is NOT your point about the government-mandated bulk-buy pricing caused by the Clintons. That *is* the cause of the shortage. My disagreement is with this phrase:

“The shortage of the flu vaccine may lead to more deaths than the terrorist attacks that occurred on September 11, 2001.”

Yes, the flu kills people, but you are saying that as many as 3,000 or more extra citizens will die as a result of the flu shortage. (Let’s not count the poor elderly woman who collapsed and died while waiting in a flu shot line. Tragic.). I am not so convinced that flu shots actually work to the degree that is alleged. I would like to keep this email short, so I will skip the reasons why I believe this. If you are interested in the more long-winded explanation, I’d be happy to oblige.

So I’d like to make a bet with you that there will be *less* than 3000 more deaths this year than last year. In fact, I’ll bet you that the count for this year will be statistically the same as an average of the last few years. Would you like to take that bet?

Nope. Not after reading the comments by Morton and Keller.

Update: A physician e-mails me saying that the CDC estimates are extremely reliable. “Most patients with influenza who die will have developed complications, which is typically pneumonia,” he explains. “Therefore, a large number of deaths from influenza are ultimately from pneumonia.” He says the CDC figure of 36,000 is based on this study.

I’m hoping the medical bloggers can shed some light on this.

Update II: Medpundit weighs in here.

Update III: Based on Medpundit’s post and the e-mails I’ve received, I think the following conclusions are warranted:

1) It is difficult to calculate the number of influenza deaths because the proximate cause of death in patients is often a flu-related complication (for example, pneumonia) rather than the flu itself.
2) Experts estimate that 36,000 Americans die each year of flu-related complications. This is the best available estimate, published in a highly respected peer-reviewed journal; the CDC is not exaggerating it.
3) Only a small proportion of the 36,000 deaths are attributed to the flu. Most are attributed to pneumonia. It is more accurate to say that 36,000 Americans die of flu-related complications than to say that 36,000 Americans die from the flu.
4) The same experts who gave us the 36,000 flu-related deaths per year figure estimate fewer than 100 flu-related deaths per year among children under the age of 5.
5) For a typical (heathy) child, the risk of dying from the flu is exceeded by the risk of dying in a fire or drowning.
6) The risk of dying from a flu-related complication is much higher among the elderly than among the young.

Here is my bottom line, based on the admittedly incomplete information I’ve been able to gather thus far:

Does it make sense to vaccinate young children, such as my son? Probably. Is it a disaster if a healthy young child is not vaccinated? No.

Whew, I feel better now.

Many thanks to readers who sent their thoughts on this matter.

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