Fox News Channel just called my childhood home state for Kerry. Disappointing if that holds up, given the pre-election day Quinnipiac poll that had Bush and Kerry in a dead heat. According to the Home News Tribune, the final Star-Ledger/Eagleton-Rutgers poll, published Sunday, found Kerry leading by 45 percent to 41 percent. Two weeks ago, Kerry had a 13 percentage-point lead, at 51 to 38.

Jim Geraghty’s call from this morning is looking spot-on:

New Jersey: Kerry. Maybe I’m wrong; maybe I’m overreacting to my bad prediction of 2000. Maybe I’m underestimating the 9/11 effect; and maybe the Osama tape enhances a pro-Bush 9/11 effect. I actually think this one will be surprisingly close (Doh! There I go again!), but let’s keep this state blue, with Kerry winning by two or three points. A showing like that wouldn’t be anything for Bush to be ashamed of, considering that he lost the state by 16 points four years ago.

Now, if only more Americans could find NJ on a map…

Update: Mark Smith reports at The Command Post that media exit polls show Kerry winning NJ by 10%. Reportedly, Iraq was Bush’s Achilles Heel in NJ. A large percentage of voters supported Bush’s actions on terrorism, but a similar large percentage of voters were unhappy with Bush’s actions in Iraq. Minorities overwhelming went for Kerry.

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