***scroll down for continuous updates***

The Phog Blog says, “Pray for New Orleans:”

As I write this, Hurricane Katrina is approaching New Orleans. New Orleans is about 12 feet below sea level and has always lived under a death sentence of a nightmare scenario which may very well unfold in the next 12-18 hours. Basically, if Katrina’s storm surge causes Lake Ponchartrain to flood the levees surrounding the city, New Orleans will be under 30 feet of water.

Experts say that such a scenario could lead to a death toll in the tens of thousands. Some place the toll as high as 50,000-100,000. The city has no natural drainage and some estimate that it could take up to 10 months for the lake of the dead to drain.

In short, tomorrow could be one of the deadliest days in American History.

Jeff Masters at Weather Underground’s Wunder Blog has a list of the strongest hurricanes in history and notes:

Katrina has continued to expand in size, and now rivals Hurricane Gilbert and Hurricane Allen as the largest hurricanes in size. When hurricanes reach such enormous sizes, they tend to create their own upper-air environment, making them highly resistant to external wind shear. The global computer models are not really hinting at any wind shear that might affect Katrina before landfall, and the only thing that might weaken her is an eyewall replacement cycle. Even if one of these happens in the next 12 hours, the weakest Katrina is likely to get before landfall is a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds. Katrina is so huge and powerful that she will still do incredible damage even at this level. The track forecast has not changed significantly, and the area from New Orleans to the Mississippi-Louisiana border is going to get a catastrophic blow. I put the odds of New Orleans getting its levees breached and the city submerged at about 70%. This scenario, which has been discussed extensively in literature I have read, could result in a death toll in the thousands, since many people will be unable or unwilling to get out of the city.

Paul at Wizbang on riding out Katrina at the Superdome:

It’s a near certainty the electricity will go out about midday Monday. The Dome has backup power but it is only for lighting -no environmental controls- and the backup lighting is not full power. The Dome is about 20 stories high, but people will be scattered all thru it.

If the worst happens -and at this point it seems implausible that it won’t- the bottom 2 stories will fill with water. Dirty nasty foul water full of chemicals and raw sewerage. Further the bathroom facilities are only expected to function for the first day.

So in rough terms, 40,000+ people will be trapped in a building with no plumbing, little light and no air conditioning. The temps after the storm rolls thru will probably be in the low 90s. Considerably hotter in the building.

There is an elevated paved deck that surrounds the Dome. It will most probably be above water but inaccessible until probably daylight Tuesday. Once the people can get out to the deck, they will still be trapped there because the city will be underwater. They will be an island. We have no idea how long it will take to remove the water from the city. I’ve seen estimates from 10 weeks to 10 months… yes months.

Brendan Loy is on top of all the latest developments. Stormtrack is blogging Katrina’s path. Joe Gandelman’s got a good round-up.

AP reports that Katrina could leave 1 million people homeless.

Eric Berger, the SciGuy, has damage estimates–pegged at $30 billion plus–and notes the potential impact on oil production. More on oil.

The Washington Post remembers Hurricane Camille. Here’s a Camille photo gallery- before and after the destruction (via Colorado’s Center for Science and Technology Policy Research).

I kid you not: A left-wing blogger is already blaming Bush for Katrina. More Bush-bashing.

Technorati tag: Katrina.

StormDigest blog asks: “Superdome: Can It Withstand The Winds.”

Here’s a prescient piece on hurricanes and New Orleans by Chris Mooney from May 2005.

***
8/28, 11pm EDT update:

Hugh Hewitt writes: “Cay you say $4 a gallon gas?” He also points to New Orleans Baton Rouge resident Josh Britton, who is defending local pols’ delayed evacuation announcement.

N.Z. Bear begs to differ.

Jeff Jarvis has a good hurricane blogger round-up.

NYTimes coverage here.

Breaking news blogging from the New Orleans Times Picayune’s blog at Nola.com.

Angry in the Great White North highlights potentially devastating cultural losses.

***
8/29, 1am EDT update:

Snippet from the latest National Hurricane Center public advisory…

CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY DETERIORATING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST…AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 160 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL…AND
KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT EITHER CATEGORY FOUR OR
FIVE INTENSITY. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE
BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND
LEVEL.

KATRINA REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. A WIND GUST TO 98 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED FROM SOUTHWEST PASS LOUISIANA.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 908 MB…26.81 INCHES.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING KATRINA.

***
8/29, 6am EDT update:

According to The National Hurricane Center, the eye of the hurricane was located “about 90 miles south-southeast of New Orleans” at 5 am eastern time this morning and moving north at about 15 miles per hour. By my calculation, that means Katrina could hit New Orleans at around 11 am eastern time.

It appears that Katrina “will make landfall as a category 4 hurricane” rather than a category 5 hurricane. There is some talk that Katrina is weakening and/or will head toward the Mississippi coastline rather than directly hitting New Orleans. Steven Gregory writes:

LATEST Storm surge calculations from the USGS Hazards site are calling for an 18-22ft storm surge[.] Locally, storm surge heights along the east shore of the Mississippi Delta will reach 28ft cutting off some vital oil related pipeline/offloading locations. I BELIEVE THIS MAY PROVE TO BE TOO HIGH.

The New Orleans levees are likely to be breached - but NOT of Catastrophic proportions — but they will be breeched and cause major flooding…. My current, and last forecast until morning — Landfall will result in 115mph sustained winds and gusts to 150mph — significantly below hurricane Camille….

On the other hand, this prediction from the National Weather Center (via VodkaPundit) is hardly reassuring:

AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL…LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. MANY WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE…INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY…A FEW POSSIBLY TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. MANY WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD…AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS…PETS…AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES MAY LAST FOR WEEKS…AS MANY POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING…BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED.

***
Update 8/29, 7:20 am EDT: AP is reporting that Katrina hit shore just east of Grand Isle, La., at about 6:30 a.m. EDT this morning. The storm is indeed weakening slightly and is now edging just east of New Orleans, “providing some hope that the worst of the storm’s 150 mph winds might not directly strike the city.” Obviously, New Orleans is still in for a rough day, but probably not nearly as bad as the worst-case predictions.

***
Update 8/29, 9:10 am EDT: AP reports that electrical power at the Superdome has been out since 5:02 am EDT. The backup power system is not strong enough to run the air conditioning. Paul at Wizbang predicted this yesterday.

Chenel Lagarde, spokesman for Entergy Corp., tells AP that 370,000 customers in southeast Louisiana are already without power.

According to Brendan Loy, CNN is reporting that the Superdome roof is starting to come apart: “Everyone is just kind of looking up in awe, that this is supposed to be the safest place in New Orleans, and now the Superdome is giving way to this Superstorm.”

Update 8/30 11pm EDT: Lots of updates. See here for the latest.

***
Previous: Hurricane Katrina blogging (Florida)

comments (0)   trackbacks (34)