***Updated below: Nagin retreats…NHC forecast…***

As if thousands of Katrina evacuees hadn’t already seen enough miserable bad weather, Tropical Storm Rita is headed toward the Florida Keys, Texas, and possibly Louisiana.

Houston blogger Jason Smith writes: “Say a prayer for us, this looks like it’s gonna be nasty.”

Galveston has announced voluntary evacuations.

Oil companies are pulling out of the Gulf of Mexico.

National Hurricane Center advisory expected at 5pm EDT.

Weather blogger Jeff Masters predicts:

Once Rita emerges into the Gulf of Mexico, continued strengthening is expected, and she will likely attain at least Category 3 status by Wednesday. However, water temperatures over the middle of the Gulf of Mexico are 1 – 2C cooler than those near Key West, thanks to all the cold water stirred up by Katrina. This cooler water should not allow Rita to grow as strong as Katrina (not a very bold statement, considering Katrina was the 4th strongest hurricane on record!) Rita will probably grow to a Category 3, and has a chance at Category 4 status if she passes over the Gulf Stream loop current, an eddy of very warm water south of New Orleans near 26N latitude…

…my best guess is that Rita will hit Louisiana Friday as a Category 3 hurricane. What’s the average error for a 5-day forecast? 270 miles. So, everyone from the Florida Panhandle to the Mexican border is still at risk.”

***
Update: Nagin says never mind to reopening New Orleans…

“We are suspending all re-entry into the city of New Orleans,” Nagin said in a news conference.

“Our levee systems are still in a very weak condition, our pumping stations are still not at full capacity and any type of storm that heads this way and hits us will put the east bank of Orleans Parish in very significant harm’s way, so I’m encouraging everyone to leave,” Nagin said.

“If we have anything over nine inches of rain and a three-foot surge in any storm we will once again have significant flooding on the east bank,” he said.

“Prepare yourself to evacuate Wednesday or even earlier.”

Update II: From the National Hurricane Center…

AT 8 PM EDT…0000Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH… LONGITUDE 77.0 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES… 225 KM… SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 315 MILES…
510 KM…EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

RITA HAS WOBBLED WESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH…21 KM/HR…IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK…THE CENTER OF RITA WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR ANDROS ISLAND IN
THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT…AND APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS TUESDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH…110 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS…
AND RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
…165 KM FROM THE CENTER.