On September 6, 2007, Fred Thompson will be announcing his intention to run for President of the United States with a webcast available to millions at http://www.imwithfred.com.

That was right out of my “Friends of Fred Thompson” e-mail… So apparently he’s letting us know that he’ll soon be telling us he’s running.

Reminds me of a bit from Futurama, where Hermes gets a letter from “The Central Burocracy”, telling him that he’s about to recieve a letter from TCB…

That again only gives you a ‘feel’ for what might happen during the nomination convention – but, it ought to tell you that in no way has the nomination been sewed up by any of the prospective candidates. It might also mean that Thompson, once declared, may easily bypass Guiliani.

On August 31st, 2007 at 6:18 am, Ron C said:
Sad to say, comment here doesn’t show much political acumen among posters.

Out of 55 comments, the majority of them (22) aren’t related pro or con to Thompson’s declaration -

Did I say he had? No, I didn’t. Go back to sleep.

Straw polls

NFRA

Rasmussen Daily

Ron C said:
Out of 55 comments, the majority of them (22) aren’t related pro or con to Thompson’s declaration

Thompson hasn’t declared anything yet. and as for the rest of you’re post with the non-link links. Yawn.

Out of 55 comments, the majority of them (22) aren’t related pro or con to Thompson’s declaration – another half dozen are indeterminate blither. Roughly 14 are negative reactions, 8 neutral reactions – and only five are somewhat positive reactions.

Not to worry – public opinion here or elsewhere has little to do with who the GOP candidate will be. Nor really does how much money any of them has raised – at this point. Later, the amount of money being raised will become more important.

Thankfully, it will not be affiliated voters that chose who the GOP candidate is – and that is by design. Most definitely, the candidate won’t be selected by general public opinion or polling.

GOP members from the states, at the nominating convention, will choose the candidate. It matters not how the candidates poll among the public now, or at the time of the nominating convention. What matters is what kind of people represent the majority of actual elected or appointed members of the states GOP membership – and more specifically, who they send from the states to vote at the national nominating convention.

If you want a ‘temperature setting’ – or to get a feel for how delegates to the national GOP nominating convention might vote – take a look at the following two polls. The first one includes quite a number of delegates to the national convention – and as you will note, the field in the polling is quite conservative. (Be sure to hit the “View Blogosphere-wide Results” to see the entire polling, also very conservative but with many more of those in the general public voting. )

The second link takes you to polling of probably the most politically effective group in the US – and the most conservative group – with the most influence on the actual nomination process. More than half of these people are known convention delegates.

Note the lopsided Thompson lead – among these most conservative and most active involved – and while you’re at it take a look at the Daily Rasmussen polling that shows very little to no spread between Thompson and Giuliani (from the general public.)

Bottom line – MUCH will change in a short period of time after Thompson declares, and very much will depend on those who attend the nominating convention (the huge majority of which will be very conservative – with the exception of those from left-leaning GOP states – like California.) In addition, the ‘early primaries’ will have great influence, but may have less effect on the nomination convention (often) than most people realize, or understand. It is after all, the state party delegates determine the nomination, not polls, definitely not leftist-media generated public opinion, and not even the opinions of those here that consider themselves conservative or somewhat so.

Remember ‘04? Most know-it-all commentators figured Kerry had it wrapped up until some guys who’d served with him decades before and knew his sleazy character first hand spoke up. So, my prediction is that in a few months this race will have changed. How? I don’t know.

Is September to late for Fred? Of course not. The thing that will matter in the long run is does he have a vision and set of goals that fire the imaginations and hopes of plain ordinary folks. If he does, then he’ll upend the conventional wisdom and perceived ‘order of the universe’ (in BOTH parties!). If not, then no amount of organization, fund raising or advertising will really separate him from the rest of the candidates. It really is that simple.

This race needs shaking up. So, swing for the fence Fred! let’s make it interesting!

C’mon Lightning!

He would have to shock Romney in Iowa and be competitive in New Hampshire to have a chance. And I just don’t see it.

He is still an asterisk in S. Carolina which is where I think he and McCain will make their last stands.

Ineresting fellow. But no shot.

You’re right. Fred can’t match Rudy and Mitt in raising 100 million so he was forced to carry out this internet campaign that sort of fizzled out the last 3 or 4 weeks.

Now he’s got to raise at least $15 million to be competitive they say. Could be. He’s winning in S. Carolina in the polls and not too far behind Rudy in Florida. He could take 3 or 4 states on the big primary day of 2/5.

How things shake out after that should be interesting. It might only be Mitt, Rudy and Fred which means a pile of conservative money would flow his way. He’s just got to hope he’s not too far behind the frontrunner at the end of the day on 2/5.