Iowa: Place your bets; Update: Caucus kick-off; Early results coming in: Huck up, Dem three-way tie; 8:56pm Eastern – Fox calls it for Huckabee; 9:29pm Eastern Fox, NBC call it for Obama; 10:29pm Eastern Hillary: “This is a great night for Democrats.”; 10:40pm Eastern: Huck: “I love Iowa a whole lot.”; 11:08pm Eastern Obamamania!
Update 1:02am Eastern. I’m giving the last word to Paul Mirengoff at Power Line, who sums up tonight’s results with the perfect blend of pith and sarcasm:
“Iowa has given its seal of approval to (1) a one-term Senator who stands for “hope” and “change” and (2) a tacky, big spending governor who doesn’t know much about foreign policy but did stay at a Holiday Inn Express. The common demoninator here, other than a patent lack of qualifications for the presidency, is likeability. Well done, (small fraction of) Iowa.”
Update 12:26am Eastern. Shepherd Smith asks, in light of Ron Paul’s 10 percent showing, whether Fox should reconsider its exclusion of Paul from the NH debate next week. Greta says yes. “Why not pull up another chair?” Smith appears to agree.
Update 11:55pm Eastern. Hah.
Update 11:06pm Eastern. Obamamania! “They said this day would never come. They said our sights were set too high…but on this January night, at this defining moment in history, you have done what the cynics said we couldn’t do…Our time for change has come!”
ChangeChangeChangeChangeChangeChangeChangeChangeChangeChange! Invokes Selma, the American Dream. An inspired speech.
I’ll say this: Obama gave the peppiest speech of the night–and his supporters registered the loudest on the applause-o-meter.
Hillary must be feeling a mighty chill wind.
Update 10:40pm Eastern. Huck takes the stage. Chuck Norris right behind him. “I love Iowa a whole lot!…It’s a new day in American politics…People are really more important than the purse.”
Update 10:27pm Eastern. Hillary takes the stage. I see Madeline Albright behind her. “This is a great night for Democrats.”
Just not for you, hon.
It’s all about “change.” ChangeChangeChangeChangeChangeChangeChangeChangeChangeChange. HRC: “I am so ready to lead!”
Update 10:15pm Eastern. Silky takes the stage to claim second place victory. “The status quo lost and change won.” Ugh. He’s talking about having a spine. I can’t watch anymore.
Update 10:02pm Eastern. Hill turned upside-down…For all her gender card-playing, it was Obama who won the women’s vote in Iowa…
Update 9:56pm Eastern. A Johnston, Iowa reader e-mails, “I just got home from my precinct’s caucus…here are the results:”
Johnston Iowa – Precinct 2
*Huckabee – 83 votes
*Romney – 64 votes
*Thompson – 35 votes
*McCain – 25 votes
*Ron Paul – 13 votes
*Keyes & Rudy – 6 votes
*Hunter – 1 vote
Update 9:29pm Eastern. 76 percent of Dem precincts reporting…Obama declared winner by FNC…and NBC…
Update 9:11pm Eastern. On the Dem side…
Senator Barack Obama : 33.88%
Senator John Edwards : 31.84%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 31.60%
What’s the deal with the deal rumors? Lefty blog Iowa Independent reports:
It seems that the under-the-radar caucus night dealmaking first reported by Iowa Independent last night may be even more complicated than once thought, according to additional reports from sources on the ground across the state.
Two well-placed sources told Iowa Independent last night that Gov. Bill Richardson’s campaign plans to direct their supporters to Sen. Barack Obama in precincts where their candidate does not reach the 15% threshold for viability.
Today, more sources have come forward to tell Iowa Independent that some supporters of Sen. Barack Obama have been directed to swing delegates to Gov. Bill Richardson in certain counties and precincts. Sources confirm that in at least three counties, Obama campaign field organizers have told their supporters to drive support to Richardson. The three confirmed counties are all likely Obama strongholds, and each county will assign a relatively high number of delegates tonight. We have decided not to list the counties by name to protect sources’ anonymity.
Obama activists in certain other counties denied receiving instructions for Richardson-Obama vote-swapping. We have heard similar rumors about precinct-specific deals between Obama and Sen. Joe Biden, although we have been unable to confirm them.
Here are the denials.
Update 9:03pm Eastern. McCain and Ron Paul neck and neck at 12 and 11 percent respectively.
Update 8:56pm Eastern. With 15 percent of precincts reporting, Fox projects win for Huckabee.
Romney with Chris Wallace for reax. “This is a 50-inning ball game. Congrats to Mike and we’ll go on to New Hampshire.”
Update 8:51pm Eastern. McCain is on Fox praising Huckabee; attributes Huck’s success to his debate performances.
Early results coming in…Huck is up; Dems are neck and neck and neck.
Update 8:27pm Eastern. A Democrat caucusgoer yells “Troops out of Iraq now!” Another caucusgoer says Hillary’s running in third place at Precinct 53.
Update 8:04pm Eastern. C-SPAN is showing the opening statement of Jim Sutton, Democrat Precinct 53 Caucus temporary chairman. He’s filibustering for the camera. A caucusgoer jibes: “Jim, move it along!”
“Are you ready to cha-cha?” Nominations being taken for permanent caucus chair.
Update:
Live results will be here for the Dems and here for the Repubs.
***
I’m not a gambling woman, but if you want to weigh in with your predictions, feel free.
Scott Elliott at Election Projection shares his:
Mike Huckabee – 30%
Mitt Romney – 19%
Fred Thompson – 18%
Barack Obama – 38%
John Edwards – 29%
Hillary Clinton – 25%
Who’ll still be around next week? Allah peers into his crystal ball.
Rich Lowry lays out various optimal scenarios.
And via Intrade (hat tip – FR)…
More:
Richelieu at the Weekly Standard gives it to Obama by a lot and Huckabee by a sliver.
See what others have said
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Categories: 2008 campaign
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THOMPSON / HUNTER
Sadly, all the GOP seems to be doing is invoking the memory of Reagan. Not a single major Republican candidate is standing up for a re-introduction of the principles of Reagan.
/sigh
I still think Romney will take Iowa. That momentum will lead him through New Hampshire and probably give him the nomination.
Democrats, who knows. My best guess is that Biden and Richardson will urge their supporters to vote Clinton once they fail to hit 15%. HRC is still the favorite and both want to be in her good graces for a VP and/or Sec. of State spot. That should swing it towards Hillary.
I just don’t want Billary in the White House ever again. I’ll take anyone on any side as long as its not them.
I don’t want the principles of Reagan, at least not all of them. He gave us amnesty.
I so wanted to vote FOR somebody. Unless Thompson takes off I will be voting AGAINST somebody.
*sigh*
Still voting for Thompson in my Primary. I think I’m one of like 18 people in Massachusetts who will, though.
I’ll be voting for Fred Thompson here in Virginia! Go Fred!
Hello World, if you’re out there and voting for Huckabee, please log in and give us a coherent explanation as to why…
Short version (longer back at No Runny Eggs – side note; kids, that “link” button is your friend)
Republicans
Huckabee – 26%
Romney – 24%
Thompson – 19%
Paul – 10%
McCain – 9%
Hunter – 5% (beats Giuliani by fractions of a percent)
Giuliani – 5%
Keyes – 2%
Democrats
Edwards – 30%
Obama – 29%
Clinton – 28%
I’m gonna say Huckabee and Hillary.
I’m an Iowan, so I will be voting in tonight’s caucuses.
I can’t really predict anything about the Republican choice, because there are so few Republicans around in Iowa City. Most that I do know are leaning toward Romney or Huckabee. My in-laws are voting for Edwards, but as far as I can see in this town, the candidate with the most support is Obama.
All I really know is my own mind and I will be supporting Thompson this evening.
JimBob, take a look at Hunter. At this point it doesn’t look like he’s going anywhere, but I would submit he’s the kind of person you could vote for
My vegas money is on Huckabee 1st with Fred!, in second.
the guerilla
You GO Raised Right!! And why don’t you bring a friend or two or ten with you tonight. YOU could be the real rEVOLution.
To bad Michelle won’t run I would vote for her in a minute, as it is going to the polls will be a painful experience for me.
I wonder if Rush’s skewering of Huckabee less than an hour ago will make difference?
Thompson 1st, well I can hope. Tired of hearing all the Bullcrap being rammed down our throats from the so called top tier candidates….
Go Fred!!!!!
I would love to, but like-minded friends are scarce around here. I will be going with my like-minded husband though, so that’s two.
Does it really matter who wins in this caucus state, except to have bragging rights? With the only positive for any of these candidates being the free national news coverage, I believe Iowa has been a monumental monetary sink hole…money not well spent.
Those who win will say winning in Iowa was important…those who lose, will say Iowa wasn’t important. I think it is more about momentum than anything else.
In my humble opinion, Huckabee is a train wreck waiting to happen! Plus, too many liberals like him…a clear red flag for me. Thompson, well, I am not convinced…good foundation, just not a great building. John McCain? Uh-uh!!! A conservative in sheep’s clothing. Despite what the pundits say, he is NOT electable. Giuliani has played it smart by not playing in Iowa. Ron Paul…cannot win nationally, nor in Iowa, but the nutcases love him. Hunter just doesn’t have the support he needs to win, although he is probably the most conservative of the bunch.
That leaves Mitt Romney. He may not win Iowa, but he is, at this point, the most electable Republican, along with Giuliani.
On the Dhimmi side, it doesn’t matter, either. Osama-Obama spent 9 mil in Iowa! It may pay off in momentum, but a small victory if he tops Hillary. Edwards, the smooth talker may sway a lot of the simple minds, but cannot win overall. Clinton…what else can be said about her that hasn’t already been said. She hasn’t started to fight for real yet…no lives destroyed, nor mysterious suicides reported…holding my breath. No one else has a chance. I think Obama will squeak by.
Aloha, based on the way you phrase the question, I doubt I can give you an answer you’d consider coherent. But, very short version, here goes. I support his positions on; Tax Reform, Abortion, immigration, The War on Terror. And, I feel (yes, feel, for all that’s worth or not worth) that he’s more honest and more in line with my values than the other candidates.
Taylor, my gut feeling is I doubt it, for two reasons. One, most Huckabee supporters have tuned out Rush on this subject. And two, I don’t think there are many people (in Iowa at least) who are on the fence about Huckabee.
By the way, I’m waiting for someone to tell me (it’d be nice if it were Fred) why I should vote for him. So far what I hear is “vote for Fred because he’s not .”
To save you time, I’ll admit I don’t know what “only true conservative” means.
Not trying to bash Iowa here but I am trying to understand why anyone thinks Iowa is representative of anything other than democrats for farm subsidies.
It is, at best, a state stocked with democrats and RINOs. Conservatives are few and far between.
It only took the state about 180 years to become an election barometer because…umm…the media wanted it to be?
Isn’t the conference that wins the Super Bowl method in an election year method more accurate..
Hmmm. Ok, that didn’t show up like I thought. It should read, “vote for Fred because he’s not ((insert opponent’s name here)).”
Radiojoe1470, check out the video from Fred Thompson to the Iowa voters on Fred08.com. It should give you an idea why Fred is the man for the job.
I think what many of us are trying to point out is that beause of the massive amounts of time and money spent in Iowa and NH people that would have done well in later states end up dropping out too early and therefore we often no longer have any real choices left in our later primaries …
I recommended this site to friends who weren’t sure who they would vote for. I found that it matched me up well, putting Hunter and Thompson at the top for me. Plus, it links to this site, which breaks down each candidates stances.
Like my Gramma used to say, we shall see what we shall see.
So, Hillary is NOT dangerous for the country?
Romney by 5%.
I don’t care who wins for the dems. Hillary is Orwellian, and frighteningly so. Obama is about on my level politically (I am 22). And Edwards is a straight up Marxist. Hillary has the best chance of doing the most lasting damage, but all of them will botch defense and security. And all of them will try to impose income redistribution programs.
link for Fred’s message to Iowa voters:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VblJq4j0_SE
The punditry flail while the media wail. The politicos fail and the people hail whom THEY want to be their leadership: Ron Paul is my guy.
Mitt takes it, with Huckabee close behind. McCain, Fred, and Paul all battle for third, fourth, and fifth. I’m guessing McCain, Paul, Fred. Rudy, Hunter, Keyes, etc with a negligible showing.
Here is Bill Clinton’s victory speech after Hillary comes in third: “Tonight, the voters of Iowa just made me the comeback kid “(oops, Freudian slip, Bill. You meant to say Hillary, right?).
I think a lot of undecideds will get in caucus tonight and think twice about all those pollsters telling them what they’re expected to do. The vocal ones will express their doubts about all of the candidates, and that will cause enough votes to swing it Mitt’s way.
REP: Mitt (comfortably), then Huck, then Fred (strong 3rd).
DEM: Clinton, Obama, Edwards
Raised Right #26—Great links.Just the kind of information needed to make one’s decision.Many thanks.I think I’ll be visiting them often over the next few months.
Best case scenario, a brokered convention for the GOP. Personally, I’d like to see a “draft Duncan Hunter”. If we could really hear him, and with the money that would come flooding in for the general, he could actually pull it out…especially if he’s up against Shrillary or Barack.
On the donk side; I believe the Breck Girl will surprise folks in Iowa, and could either win or statistically tie Obama. My family lives there, and the support is surprising. He’ll fizzle after that, but so did Pat and others.
Iowa donk race could turn on a dime with the insane way they run their caucae. If the likes of Biden, Kucinic, etc. do not get their 15% on the first vote, those caucus goers can switch. That Richardson (surprisingly), Kucinic & Biden have directed their supporters to throw their votes to Obama could bring some really interesting aspects into the whole mix! Shrillary will not be a fun person to be around tonight!
Now that we are officially in the election season with the Iowa caucus tonight, time for some fun. Since according to their campaigns all of the candidates are the solution to all of our problems, time for a reality check. Here are some categories the pollsters don’t bother to list & my selections for each. Feel free to add more categories as needed. I am naming a Dem. & Repub. for each
Biggest Nut Job: Ron Paul & Dennis Kuchinich
Most Plastic Appearance: Mitt Romney & John Edwards Has anyone ever seen either of these candidates & their hair was not perfect?
Most Sincere in their Beliefs: Rudy Guliani & Dennis Kuchinich Both have been focused on their core issues for a long time
The Candidate you would like to sit down with & have a beer with & discuss politics: Obama & Fred Thompson Both come across as real people vs. a media talking head
Special Category, given that Hillary is the most divisive candidate in the mix, people either love her or hate her & their are very few people that just shrug their shoulders about her. If you are in the hate her category what would cause you to hold your nose & pull the lever to vote for her. For me it would be Ron Paul is the Repub. candidate. I never said this was a test of reality.
Have fun.
ezupirate75
Ron Paul or Shrillary….hmmm….if a gun were held to my head, I would just have to say, “pull the trigger”.
“On January 3rd, 2008 at 1:11 pm, taylork said:
I wonder if Rush’s skewering of Huckabee less than an hour ago will make difference?”
I hope so, taylork, I’ve blogged about this guy. I’ve gone over his “positions” and all I can think is that this is the GOP Jimmy Carter! Other than marriage & abortion, I cannot see anything even remotely conservative in this guy! When he “apologized” for the death of Benazir Bhutto, I got to looking further into him, and his positions. He’s another Arkansas con man! Who has he got on his team, anyone know? My bet is that there are more former Clintonistas than just Dick Morris behind him. I like Guiliani’s team; Ted Olson stands out to me! It’s not just the candidate, it’s the team they bring with them.
you may have chosen the best option, I would probably go ahead & retire & move to my townhouse in Aruba & never look back. I would feel bad for my daughter having to live thru the mess either would make.
All,
I decided to after reading so many blogs and articles either starting with or including Imus in the body of their articles. I decided to write my latest blog “Imus & The Ho’er in Review” yes I mention Satan, Hell Freezing over, Iowa ect..
http://www.myspace.com/cantgetherefromthere
ezupirate75, I would add one category to your “most” list;
Most not-who-they-appear-to-be; Shrillary Clinton & Mike Huckabee.
How about another post, Michelle? What would your dream ticket be? Mine would be Duncan Hunter & Michael Steele.
How about Rudy & Michael? That’d be my 2nd choice.
Dagney, you may be on to something, every time I see Steele I come away impressed.
Anyone would have to try hard not to be impressed with Mr. Steele. I’ve seen him on a number of venues, and his common sense and solid conservative values make him the only conservative I’ve seen in the mold of Ronald Reagan…though George Allen comes fairly close. The makaka nonsense ended that…thanks to the drive-by media who could not allow him to become a power to be reckoned with!
So long as Hillary loses (the bigger the better) I will wake up a happy man tomorrow. May her coach hit a pothole on the way to her coronation! I would like to thank all of the democraps who are running against her for at least making her spend her war chest. It will get interesting to see which of the loser sycophants (Richardson, Biden, Dodd) toss their pathetic support her way to stay in her good VP graces. If she does lose (Oh God let it happen!!), I would expect her and Bill to get real nasty in the next week in an attempt to turn it around in New Hampshire (they are of the same ilk in this regard). Obama (or that fool Edwards) are so beatable in the general election that I swoon at the prospect of either one being the democrap nominee.
Let’s hope for Obama. He’ll be destroyed in a general election by any Republican except Huckleberry Hound–which is why the MSM wants liberal Huckabee to get the nomination so badly.
Huckabee is the worst Republican candidate I can imagine.
The ‘Pubbies:
1. Mike Huckabee – 24%
2. Mitt Romney – 22%
3. Fred Thompson – 18%
4. John McCain – 12%
5. Ron Paul 8%
6. Rudy Giuliani – etc…
7. Alan Keyes
8. Duncan Hunter
And the Donks:
1. John Edwards – 34%
2. Barack Obama – 30%
3. Hillary Clinton – 24%
4. Bill Richardson – 5%
5. Chris Dodd – etc…
6. Joe Biden
7. Dennis Kucinich
8. Mike Gravel
No need to wait for results, when your humble correspondent can give them to you now.
Couple of more hours and this Iowa nonsense will be over. I can’t wait. I will be doing my best to give Thompson a boost. The Carolinas is where he will shine. Reading the comments and I saw a name that I haven’t seen for a while. Michael Steele. He is impressive. I would like to hear more of him. The fact that he lasted as long as he did in Maryland says a bunch. I think he would really shine on the national stage. Very intelligent and a great speaker.
Just for kicks I’ll play…
McCain
Thompson
Romney
Huckabee
Hunter
Guiliani
Paul
Keyes
__________________
Edwards
Obama
Clinton
Kucinich
Biden
Richardson
Dodd
Gravel
Starting to look like the same o, same o…the best man (whooops person) for the job is over looked and will be gone.
Pathetic
Yes above post is a S.W.A.G.
thompson #1
huckster #2
paul #3
dems- who cares
This is a vote for the highest office in the land. Commit to one (crappy) candidate and live with the results!
If I thought Huckabee was a threat to Shrillary, I’d know where this was coming from; http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080103/huckabee_letters.html?.v=1
Since he’s not, who’s the culprit? Ideas, anyone? I know dirty tricks are not solely the purview of the left, but I’d hate it if any of our guys did this…Oh, wait! Somebody WANTS the Huckster to be the GOP nominee…things that make me go, “hmmmmmmmmmmm….”
OK, so you get the tin-foil hats together, and, thinking they get their “do-over i’m switching my vote now b/c my guy didn’t get his 15%”, Denny K. gets 15%+ and is locked in!
Conservatives can think crazy too y’know
MM, you really need to learn how the Democrat Iowa caucae work…they take a vote at each caucus site, and if a candidate does not receive 15%, the delegate is then asked to caste a 2nd vote on another candidate. They continue until there is a consensus in that caucus.
Take your tinfoil hat off, and go research how the dumocraps run their Iowa caucus!
On the Republican side, you go to the caucus, vote your favorite, then go home and watch your favorite TV show!
Reality is what it is, Mikey.
Dt, what about my scenario was inconsistant with your description?
My apologies, MM…You couldn’t be more correct in your assessment! Silly me.
Just a wild dream, man!
GO GO GO Julie Annie!!!!! And Take McCslain with you. both are not wanted in the Republican Party.
Innismir, make that 21…my household is voting FRED!!
careful – MM can be Michelle too!
Regardless of what happens tonight Mitt or Rudy are the only candidates that will challenge the Dems in the general. The Dems will clean up if they run against anyone else. That’s why they are rooting for Huckabee or McCain.
Said on another thread, but it bears repetition in this one.
We have such an excellent team in the primaries, it seems a shame to whittle it down. So here’s my suggestion:
Pres.: Fred Thompson
Vice-Pres.: Mitt Romney
Sec. of State: Rudy Giuliani
Sec. of War: John McCain
Sec. of Treasury: Steve Forbes
Atty. General: Andy McCarthy
Sec. of Homeland Security: Duncan Hunter
National Security Adviser: John Bolton
A team that can take on the world!
Surak#65 No question that there is a lot of talent there but, Rudy and Mitt are chief execs. and would not want to be in a secondary position.
Nice job on the Republican results site. What are they running at, 9600 baud?
MrC_5150, #67
You echoed my sentiments EXACTLY. The Democratic website is zippy, fast, and automatically updating. Meanwhile I’ve been waiting 2 minutes for the GOP website to haul itself up.
As a Republican Techie, I’m disappointed. As a Thompson supporter, I hope Fred takes out their IT department. ;D
coldfront, #62
Hey! A fellow MassHole! Greetings! Glad to see I’m not the only one who has his head screwed on straight in this state.
The former supporters of Jimmy Carter are having some temporary impact in Iowa, apparently. My bet is that their support is short-lived…unless they’re basing their support only on his religiosity, and not his actual policies. When the truth of his positions become known to them, he’ll be abandoned.
I know that Jim Gilchrist endorsed Huckabee so this is relatively on-topic. Can anyone familiar with the Minutemen and Gilchrist tell me if he’s gone completely off the rails or has he always been this nuts?
What about the Huckster? He actually does play a pretty mean electric bass.
Score! Those arrogant Klinton’s must be fuming.
Let’s see…
Scarecrow check, Cowardly lion check, Tin-man check…
S#!^ ,
TotoMSM! get offa my leg! Bad dog!Obama wins and leads by 7% points. That is rubbing her nose in it.
Ron Paul is kicking Julie Annie’s rear end.
Huckabee isn’t my choice, but oh wellz. I figured he was going to win. But I think we can all agree about The Hildebeast coming in third…bwahahahaha! Oh sure, she’s not out yet. But my God, I’d pay to be a fly on the wall just to see her tear into her staff with that infamous temper tantrum. It’ll be just like the St. Valentine’s Day Massacre, only with more f-bombs.
A Pope and a Hope, A Pope and a Hope, celebrate all, A Pope and a Hope.
Huckleberry Hound defeated Deputy Dawg, Dick Tracy, Rupaul, Grumpy, and Rudy.
The man preaching hope beat the woman married to the man from Hope.
Ok all, what do these results mean…
ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!
eric
aka the Tygrrrr Express
http://www.blacktygrrrr.wordpress.com
Hellary will be assuming her true form shortly – watch out, the gust from those wings can raise some dust!
In Iowa it is time to bring in the brass monkey and hide the ashtrays from Hillary – LOL.
I have to admit that the Huckster is going to be real hard to support.
MrC_5150, #76
Unsurprising really, considering that Rudy broke camp a while ago in Iowa and essentially conceded it before the Straw Poll.
Upside: She lost…
Downside: Soros air is cleared for takeoff.
Whatever: 400 dolla hair cuts still look good.
Not only is Andrea Mitchell throwing Hillary under the bus, she’s backing up to make sure she runs her over.
Brooklyn…tell me about it, I look fabulous in a non-metrosexual sort of way!
eric
aka the Tygrrrr Express
Man, is he depressing or what? Where’s the hook?
Elizabeth Edwards looks really tired.
Please don’t let her cackle.
Watching Fox and is that Helen Thomas behind Hillary or her mother?
I’m watching Edwards make his “acceptance of second place” speech. I’ve never really seen him speak before.
Holy crap the guy sounds like a cross between Oprah, an infomercial and a televangelist. When he was taking the podium they were playing U2’s “(Pride) In the Name of Love” which is either about Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. or Jesus Christ, or both. What balls this guy has.
He told sob story after sob story, children dying and old people losing their jobs (his grandfather was partialy parlized you know). Everything was emotional, sappy nonsense.
He just sounded like such a fake I can’t imagine that anyone would vote for him if he weren’t rich & good lookin’.
Now Hillary’s speaking. I gotta get a bucket.
Watched Silky,too sick now to sit through the Beast.