Michelle Malkin » New Hampshire youth vote: Will it come down to college towns?

New Hampshire youth vote: Will it come down to college towns?

By Michelle Malkin • January 8, 2008 10:09 PM

Update 10:51pm Eastern. Obama concedes.

Update 10:35pm Eastern. Still no word from Hanover, Exeter, Durham.

***
Exit polls show Hillary leading Obama among women, elderly, and union voters. Obama grabbed the youth vote by a big margin. Late-deciders are splitting evenly between them. So, will it come down to college towns? Jim Geraghty shared this from an NH consultant yesterday:

Obama will win college towns “by ridiculously large margins,” this consultant predicts. There are roughly 70,000 college students in the state. The Union Leader suggests that the number of absentee ballots isn’t overwhelming, but if these statistics from 2004 hold up,many of them may need them: “State residents made up 53 percent of all freshmen enrolled in New Hampshire in the fall of 2004 who had graduated from high school in the previous year; 55 percent of all New Hampshire residents who were freshmen attended college in their home state.”

A recent change in state law allows college students to register under their school addresses without losing residency status in their home states.

The NYT says Obama “owned” Dartmouth yesterday. Quotes like this were typical:

Nobody was walking out of Mr. Obama’s rally this morning. In fact, as early as 7:15 a.m. hundreds of people were in line to hear him speak, students said. Jasmine Richards, 19, a sophomore who was there, said she felt connected to Mr. Obama.

“I kind of got the fever when I heard him speak last spring,” said Ms. Richards, who is from Lafayette, La. “I still have it.”

Did the kids tell the reporters one thing and wake up cured from their Obama fever the next day? Did the Hillary campaign find a way to finagle those votes away from the Magic Man? Would another Scarlet Johannson appearance have helped?

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Comments

#1

On January 8th, 2008 at 10:15 pm, Nashoa said:

Most likely they forgot to vote, like every other “huge youth turnout.”
#2

On January 8th, 2008 at 10:21 pm, wrcnossen said:

I think a small youth vote is a great thing. The foolish and uninformed should always stay home.
#3

On January 8th, 2008 at 10:24 pm, Gator70 said:

Why dont they have to use absentee ballots like the rest of us? Is it too taxing on the poor dears?
#4

On January 8th, 2008 at 10:38 pm, meatpieandtatters said:

hahahah. Paul is beating Fred. Fred’ having a bad day.
#5

On January 8th, 2008 at 10:42 pm, ThatSamIAm said:

Polls off by a mile. Media reports not even close. Suddenly Hillary support surges.

As I predicted, without explanation voters will turn up to vote for Hillary.

As I predicted, there will be more voter fraud on her behalf than any canidate has ever received. More dead will vote. More illegal immigrants will vote. More felons will vote.

All those polls were off? Every survey as of yesterday completely wrong?

This screams of tainted votes, which is absolutely a Clinton favorite.
#6

On January 8th, 2008 at 10:49 pm, BlameAmericaLast said:

All those polls were off? Every survey as of yesterday completely wrong?

This screams of tainted votes, which is absolutely a Clinton favorite.

This smells of fraud. I called it a while ago, early on. I wouldn’t put it past these people. It’s HERS damn it! HERS. She’s OWED this, and she’s going to do anything to get it…

BY ANY MEANS NECESSARY.
#7

On January 8th, 2008 at 10:54 pm, TK-421 said:

I would not count the youth vote out this time, thanks to blogging BS and the monkey see monkey do and the heavily liberal leaning college systems that they will just sit it out. Nevermind short of greed, the need to save one’s cowardly ass, and lack of responsibility they know next to nothing on responsibilty, history and the importance of war at times in national survivle. I said it once I will again,.

America in 08 no matter who wins you loose. Ron Pual hasn’t a snow balls chance in hell, and even if he wins some how he can’t just go Hey now lets do this and this etc. He would be like Grant and at odds with his congress and nothing will be done. Obama, why don’t people just say it, hes nothing more than a Black Jimmy Carter, smiles and hugs all around. Actully I haven’t seen one person running yet that would not make me build a fallout shelter if elected..
#8

On January 8th, 2008 at 10:57 pm, TK-421 said:

and be at odds* typo, but really this is my faith in the current prospects. Too many Children with companies pushing the bill and not one, least as I see it, Strong Leadership figure.
#9

On January 8th, 2008 at 10:58 pm, greenfairie said:

Youth vote? Pfft! The media has gone on and on about the youth vote for years but the youth never turns out in the huge numbers it keeps predicting. Hillary carried every traditional and actively voting Democratic subgroup, except for the union vote (split with John Edwards).

The Hildebeast is like Freddy Krueger or Jason Voorhees…just as you think you’ve killed him, he suddenly grabs your ankle! I knew it wasn’t over after Iowa. Never underestimate the Clintons.
#10

On January 8th, 2008 at 11:04 pm, TK-421 said:

@9 I say don’t count them out as you have so many youths that are pissing their pants about the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and relations elsewhere. They are scared of having to fight for anything that they would sale the nations soul to stop it, so they can stay home, spout off how better they are and play the playstation. Some may think they are cowards or liberal intelectuals, but thats why I would not count them out. In a fox hole they say to worry about a hero. No, I worry about the people that would sell their own mothers to save ones skin.

I would not count them out at all.
#11

On January 8th, 2008 at 11:12 pm, BlameAmericaLast said:

Hillary, shrilling about Big Oil, Big Pharma, Big Healthcare, etc…etc..etc…the same old, same old diatribe.

EVER THINK that these big companies typically provide the best benefits in the world?

EVER THINK that the drug companies have done the best work in the world in providing hundreds of drugs, vaccines, etc., that save LIVES?

Government is the answer.

Idiot. I really can’t stand this woman.
#12

On January 8th, 2008 at 11:25 pm, Jim M. said:

If New Hampshire is like the rest of the country, those students would have to be registered to vote in that particular town. That means they would have to have legal residence there.

While I can see college students attending rallies (good way to get out of class), I believe that few of them would actually be voting in the town.

Apparently, the analysts at Fox know something I don’t.
#13

On January 8th, 2008 at 11:41 pm, SHoward said:

Wow, with the speculation that there may be (shock) voter fraud in the Dem race, I wonder if the leftists will find a way to blame Boooosh.
#14

On January 8th, 2008 at 11:51 pm, scooter56 said:

Since it’s only the 8th, I would think that many college age students who are residents, and are students elsewhere, are still between semesters. This may explain the large herd chasing Sean Hannity down the street.
As far as the young voters not turning out, yes older voters have higher turnout rates by percentage, but by those numbers anyone not carrying an AARP card would be considered the youth vote.
#15

On January 8th, 2008 at 11:55 pm, Miss Ladybug said:

Read somewhere this evening that NH law allows college students to register to vote with their college addresses without affecting residency.

And Thompson never expected to do well in NH, so didn’t campaign there. Paul did campaign there.
#16

On January 9th, 2008 at 12:02 am, gandolphxx said:

Unpopular as this may be it might not be the college kids.

This phenomenon was first noticed in the 1982 race for governor of California, where Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, a black Democrat, narrowly lost to Republican George Deukmejian, despite polls showing him with a lead ranging from 9 to 22 points. The next year, African-American Democrat Harold Washington barely won his race for mayor of Chicago against Republican Bernard Epton. Pre-election polls taken within the last two weeks of the campaign showed Washington with a 14-point lead.

– Can You Trust What Polls Say about Obama’s Electoral Prospects?

There is a possibility that the privacy of a polling booth versus a poll which involves two people will provide different results.

I am only suggesting this, not advocating nor approving – I would have hoped that was long behind us.
#17

On January 9th, 2008 at 12:09 am, Miss Ladybug said:

FoxNews/Opinion Dynamis polls was closest – 32/28 – a 4pt spread, and it looks like it will be 39/36 right now. Can’t forget, also, every poll has a margin of error…
#18

On January 9th, 2008 at 7:18 am, evilned said:

Yesterday, as I was getting ready to head out and vote, I noticed some kid walking up to my front door wearing an Obama t-shirt.

My first thought was, “Is this kid old enough to vote?”

My second thought was, “So this is where that Bong hits for Jesus guy ended up, helping the Obama campaign.”

It was a spectacularly beautiful day yesterday. The Global warming arrived right on schedule.
Someone must have duct taped Al Gore’s mouth shut)

Fred didn’t do well in this state, but he never planned to. The campaign put almost nothing in here. We’ll know how it goes after Super Tuesday I think.

Of course, there’s always the Kucinich/Paul third party campaign.