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Super Tuesday: It begins

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By Michelle Malkin  •  February 5, 2008 08:04 AM

Scroll down for updates…interactive results map here…West Virginia GOP convention on second vote (Huck voters to throw to McCain?) 2:02pm McCain concedes defeat in WVa…WVa goes to Huck…

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Scott at Election Projection has his big Super Duper Mega Jumbo Tuesday predictions up. Reality bites:

Here’s how I see the Republican races unfolding today. John McCain will be the big winner. He is still riding the momentum from his victories in South Carolina and Florida – plus he enjoys a structural advantage. Unlike the Democrats, who award all delegates (except super delegates) proportionally according to the vote, state GOP conventions have several methods for allocating their delegates. Many states have a winner-take-all format. Others use a proportional model. Still others choose a modified winner-take-all system which takes congressional district results into account.

It just so happens that in many states where McCain is ahead, the method is winner-take-all. As a result, he stands to gain large delegate blocks in such states as New York, Arizona, Missouri, and New Jersey. One the other hand, with the exception of Utah, states Mitt Romney might be expected to win break down the allocation of delegates to more than one candidate. For example, Romney’s home state of Massachusetts employs a proportional model.

The bottom line is that McCain’s delegates will come easier than Romney’s, increasing the effect of his strong polling numbers nationwide. I’m predicting McCain will win 60% to 65% of the delegates at stake today. Mitt Romney will come in with 25% to 30% or so, and Mike Huckabee, around 10%. Ron Paul’s best chance of picking up delegates will come in Alaska. Other than that, he may snatch a delegate here and there, but his haul won’t amount to much.

On the Dem side, it looks like there still won’t be a clear winner at the end of the day.

If you’re voting today, let us know how you voted and what the mood is at the polls.

YouTube has a Super Tuesday page here. If you’ve got a camera, make sure to upload your video and provide some conservative flavor.

States/territories voting:

Alabama
Alaska
American Samoa
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Georgia
Idaho
Illinois
Kansas
Massachusetts
Minnesota
Missouri
Montana
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Dakota
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Utah
West Virginia

From the USAToday cheat sheet:

7 p.m. ET: Polls close in Georgia, where Democrats award 87 delegates and Republicans award 72.

• 8 p.m. ET: Polls close in Illinois (153 Democratic delegates, 57 Republican); Massachusetts (93 Democratic, 40 Republican); Missouri (72 Democratic and 58 Republican); and New Jersey (107 Democratic, 52 Republican).

• 9 p.m. ET: Polls close in Arizona (56 Democratic and 50 Republican); and New York (232 Democratic, 101 Republican).

• 10 p.m. ET: Polls close in Utah (23 Democratic; 36 Republican).

• 11 p.m. ET: Polls close in California (370 Democratic; 170 Republican).

More helpful info here.

***

Reader David L. sends this graphic on the front page of the Wisconsin State Journal, which has apparently decided that the GOP race is already over:

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PJM has a big round-up here.

David Harsanyi at the Denver Post weighs in on McCain vs. conservatives:

This week McCain will be stopping in at the Conservative Political Action Conference to cultivate the hard hearts of the rank and file.

He will, self-effacingly, forward the fable that he was a mere “foot soldier” in the Reagan Revolution. Serving in the house beginning in 1983, McCain was, at best, a soldier in mop-up operations.

Who knows? The mood of the country might be swinging towards John McCain pragmatism. Conservatives might be an ideological minority in the Republican Party, once again. But things change.

After all, one day Karl Rove is planning a permanent Republican majority, the next day he’s a Fox News analyst, pondering whether Democrats will have a veto-proof majority in the Senate in 2009.
And perhaps conservatives are dead wrong. Maybe McCain will become a great Republican president. Still, there’s nothing shameful about holding your ground on principle.

***

Update 10:10am Eastern. There’s bad weather in the Upper Midwest.

And as usual, a small spate of voting problems have already been reported. Glitches in NJ kept Dem. Gov Jon Corzine from casting his ballot.

A left-wing group is complaning about an extra bubble voters in Los Angeles County have to fill in to complete their ballots.

Update 11:21am Eastern. All the latest on the Dole/McCain vs. Rush scuffle here.

Update 12:27pm Eastern. Newsflash: Hillary coughed. I’m sure the WaPo reporter who covered Maureen Dowd’s stomach bug will be on the case ASAP!

Update 12:34pm Eastern. FNC reporting that West Virginia’s convention cast votes. No candidate received more than 50 percent, so they are re-voting. More at the Charleston Gazette, which reports that the Huck folks may be working to deny Romney a win: “There is speculation on the convention floor that rather than stay with McCain on the second ballot, his supporters may switch to Huckabee in order to give him a victory over Romney.”

Update 2:02pm Eastern. McCain concedes defeat in WVa- via Charleston Gazette…

Former Louisiana Gov. Buddy Roemer conceded defeat for Sen. John McCain at West Virginia’s Republican state convention on Tuesday.

Roemer, who represented McCain at the Charleston event, asked McCain boosters to support Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee on the second ballot in order to block former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

Update 2:27pm Eastern. McCain voters’ assist gives Huck the win in WVa.

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Categories: 2008 campaign, 2012 Campaign, Barack Obama, John McCain