Super Tuesday: It begins
Scroll down for updates…interactive results map here…West Virginia GOP convention on second vote (Huck voters to throw to McCain?) 2:02pm McCain concedes defeat in WVa…WVa goes to Huck…
Scott at Election Projection has his big Super Duper Mega Jumbo Tuesday predictions up. Reality bites:
Here’s how I see the Republican races unfolding today. John McCain will be the big winner. He is still riding the momentum from his victories in South Carolina and Florida – plus he enjoys a structural advantage. Unlike the Democrats, who award all delegates (except super delegates) proportionally according to the vote, state GOP conventions have several methods for allocating their delegates. Many states have a winner-take-all format. Others use a proportional model. Still others choose a modified winner-take-all system which takes congressional district results into account.
It just so happens that in many states where McCain is ahead, the method is winner-take-all. As a result, he stands to gain large delegate blocks in such states as New York, Arizona, Missouri, and New Jersey. One the other hand, with the exception of Utah, states Mitt Romney might be expected to win break down the allocation of delegates to more than one candidate. For example, Romney’s home state of Massachusetts employs a proportional model.
The bottom line is that McCain’s delegates will come easier than Romney’s, increasing the effect of his strong polling numbers nationwide. I’m predicting McCain will win 60% to 65% of the delegates at stake today. Mitt Romney will come in with 25% to 30% or so, and Mike Huckabee, around 10%. Ron Paul’s best chance of picking up delegates will come in Alaska. Other than that, he may snatch a delegate here and there, but his haul won’t amount to much.
On the Dem side, it looks like there still won’t be a clear winner at the end of the day.
If you’re voting today, let us know how you voted and what the mood is at the polls.
YouTube has a Super Tuesday page here. If you’ve got a camera, make sure to upload your video and provide some conservative flavor.
States/territories voting:
Alabama
Alaska
American Samoa
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Georgia
Idaho
Illinois
Kansas
Massachusetts
Minnesota
Missouri
Montana
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Dakota
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Utah
West Virginia
From the USAToday cheat sheet:
7 p.m. ET: Polls close in Georgia, where Democrats award 87 delegates and Republicans award 72.
• 8 p.m. ET: Polls close in Illinois (153 Democratic delegates, 57 Republican); Massachusetts (93 Democratic, 40 Republican); Missouri (72 Democratic and 58 Republican); and New Jersey (107 Democratic, 52 Republican).
• 9 p.m. ET: Polls close in Arizona (56 Democratic and 50 Republican); and New York (232 Democratic, 101 Republican).
• 10 p.m. ET: Polls close in Utah (23 Democratic; 36 Republican).
• 11 p.m. ET: Polls close in California (370 Democratic; 170 Republican).
More helpful info here.
***
Reader David L. sends this graphic on the front page of the Wisconsin State Journal, which has apparently decided that the GOP race is already over:
PJM has a big round-up here.
David Harsanyi at the Denver Post weighs in on McCain vs. conservatives:
This week McCain will be stopping in at the Conservative Political Action Conference to cultivate the hard hearts of the rank and file.
He will, self-effacingly, forward the fable that he was a mere “foot soldier” in the Reagan Revolution. Serving in the house beginning in 1983, McCain was, at best, a soldier in mop-up operations.
Who knows? The mood of the country might be swinging towards John McCain pragmatism. Conservatives might be an ideological minority in the Republican Party, once again. But things change.
After all, one day Karl Rove is planning a permanent Republican majority, the next day he’s a Fox News analyst, pondering whether Democrats will have a veto-proof majority in the Senate in 2009.
And perhaps conservatives are dead wrong. Maybe McCain will become a great Republican president. Still, there’s nothing shameful about holding your ground on principle.
***
Update 10:10am Eastern. There’s bad weather in the Upper Midwest.
And as usual, a small spate of voting problems have already been reported. Glitches in NJ kept Dem. Gov Jon Corzine from casting his ballot.
A left-wing group is complaning about an extra bubble voters in Los Angeles County have to fill in to complete their ballots.
Update 11:21am Eastern. All the latest on the Dole/McCain vs. Rush scuffle here.
Update 12:27pm Eastern. Newsflash: Hillary coughed. I’m sure the WaPo reporter who covered Maureen Dowd’s stomach bug will be on the case ASAP!
Update 12:34pm Eastern. FNC reporting that West Virginia’s convention cast votes. No candidate received more than 50 percent, so they are re-voting. More at the Charleston Gazette, which reports that the Huck folks may be working to deny Romney a win: “There is speculation on the convention floor that rather than stay with McCain on the second ballot, his supporters may switch to Huckabee in order to give him a victory over Romney.”
Update 2:02pm Eastern. McCain concedes defeat in WVa- via Charleston Gazette…
Former Louisiana Gov. Buddy Roemer conceded defeat for Sen. John McCain at West Virginia’s Republican state convention on Tuesday.
Roemer, who represented McCain at the Charleston event, asked McCain boosters to support Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee on the second ballot in order to block former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.
Update 2:27pm Eastern. McCain voters’ assist gives Huck the win in WVa.
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Just once I would like someone say Mitt is going to WIN and that he is doing great…
Super – schmuper.
Michelle, I’m praying for a Super Upset.
ROMNEY at 85%!
I don’t believe the polls. Romney will upset McCain and I’m looking forward to seeing the egg all over the faces of McCain supporters.
I haven’t voted yet today. However, I plan on voting after work today. I’ll be certain to report back at that time.
I’m voting for Romney and I reside in NJ… We’ll see how it goes.
Good ol’ Wisconsin. We don’t get to vote in Super Tuesday & they’ve already decided for me anyway. I just hope the predictions are wrong & Romney will still be in the race when I finally get a chance to vote.
I saw MSNBC Super Tuesday preview last night (O’Reilly was talking about Britney Spears AGAIN so I switched over), and even though Mitt was very close to McCain in many states, they would always give it to McCain. Likewise, they kept saying that Huckabee wasn’t siphoning votes from Romney. Right.
I’m praying that you’re right Sailor. I’d like to see a little egg-face paint on some of those left biased broadcasters too.
Oh, I went with Romney and Steve Sauerberg, early Illinois voting last Friday.
Going to the polls tonight.
Going to close that window behind me.
Going to take my ballot.
Going to write in “neither of these two” if I can fit it in.
And going to cast that ballot.
Shame on the RNC for abandoning us.
You can almost smell a new party being brewed, can’tcha?
I sure hope this puts the end to Huckabee and Romney comes out ahead.
My brain feels like that old commercial with the egg in the frying pan. ugh.
Well, call me crazy, but I just voted in MO, and “wasted” it on Fred!
I just haven’t been convinced by either of them that I should vote ‘for’ them, and I’m not (yet) cynical enough to vote ‘against’ someone else in a primary. Nov is another story…
That being said, I really do hope that Romney pulls out a couple of decent upsets tonight
Does anyone know of a good site with continuous running updates on Super Tuesday state voting totals? (Besides Scott’s site above.)?
I’d love it if Michelle had something like that, but we can’t ask for everything I guess.
JamesLee,
Do waiters at restaurants smack you over the head with a menu when their taking your order? sheesh.
I realize how emotionally invested FredHeads are to Fred even though he’s no longer in the race. I fully understand that because I AM a FredHead. Everyone has the right to vote as they choose (thank GOD), but if I lived in a Super Tuesday voting state, I would NOT be voting for Fred. I would be voting for Mitt Romney/against John McCain. It’s strategy and it starts NOW, not November. All of this is strictly my opinion and I am not slamming anyone else for their vote.
Did anyone notice the continuous ads for Huckabee after his on the air interview?
I wanted to puke a nuke.
I hope MITT wins and I mean BIG so those loudmouths on all the MSM will eat the egg on their faces.
Maybe off topic a little bit but my 6 year old son was particularly insightful this morning.
I told him we had to go vote at his school this morning. He asked if he would get to vote. I told him he is too young but he can go with me to learn how to vote, when he is old enough to do it himself. He asked me, “Dad, will I lose my mind then?”
Out of the mouths of babes….
What do you tell him?
Tell him the truth.
Yes, you will lose your mind and your money.
There goes the MSM again…shoving their wishes down everyone’s throat. Amazing they left Romney out of that front page story. Unbelievable.
Sorry, I’m still voting for Mitt. I’m not stupid enough to go with what the MSM vote, and I certainly don’t have herd mentality like the rest of the McCan’t pushers.
oink, I honestly didnt mean to slam james but if he’s hoping for “upsets” by Romney why wouldnt he contribute to that cause? just seemed a wishy washy statement.. sorry if I offended, I guess I could worded it differently.
#3 — me too, and I am the eggman! Goo goo gajoob.
I really hope that Mitt Romney can make a “surge” like Obama apparently has. If that happens, McCain’s inevitable tag will definitely have some wear and tear. It probabably won’t happen but one can hope.
As to the Dems, I’m not sure any of the posters have brought this up but I will. I’m fearful of what an Obama presidency could look like. The man has already compared himself to Lincoln, MLK, and JFK but has nothing “real” to offer except his Chicago community activism. Our country will surely take a Jimmah Carter hit. However, it may be a good rebuilding time for Republicans to get their acts together and rediscover what made them a great party in the first place.
I wish all these candidates… McCain, Obama, Clinton, Romney would discuss how they’re going to improve our country. I want “real” ideas, not pretty rhetoric. Bumper stickers are nice, meaningful messages are better.
You just voted for Fred Thompson but you hope Mitt Romney pulls off an upset? Huh?! What!?
Well, I voted for Mitt. McFool turns my stomach.
I just wish there was someone who feels that government “help” creates only slaves and dependency. In order to have freedom, failure must be permitted.
Jeesh. I must be evil incarnate. I’d rather Romney then McCain, but I don’t think McCain is incubus. If McCain takes the GOP nomination, I can back him, easily over Clinton or Obama.
I just voted for Romney in Mass this morning. I had to check 3 times to make sure I hadn’t mistakenly filled in the oval next to Huck by mistake since they were right next to one another…Yikes!
aj, you crack me up—this was what I was feeling as well about James, but your analogy was much better than the $#@% I was thinking.
Sad to say, my husband and I voted for Rudy in New York absentee voting. We were going back and forth between him and Romney. My in-laws (downstate NY) are voting for Romney and I don’t know who my parents are voting for (they’re voting Republican I just don’t know who).
This is one of those elections (like the Bob Dole election) where there aren’t really any “grab ya” candidates. Romney is in many respects a
conservative but has his flaws. Is anybody else feeling perturbed about this election season like I am?
Another question: how many of you are acquainted with Republicans supporting Obama? What are your thoughts regarding these people? Are they supporting him because he’s the uniter not the divider candidate (haven’t we heard this before) or because they’re simply disenchanted? In your minds, are they still Republicans or were they ever? Because in my mind, if anybody votes for Obama, they’re definitely not doing it because he’s conservative.
I voted in Manhattan this morning for Romney. You should have seen the unorganized poll workers….really elderly confused ladies, antiquated equipment (from the stone age) and slow, slow, slow. I’m sure some people’s votes didn’t get logged correctly. Typical New York election.
P.S.
Win Mitt, WIN!
I try not to believe polls (except the one in California showing Mitt winning!)
Lots of prayers today about this election.
Voted Mitt in GA. I think Huckelberry has this county (we’re in GOOOODDS country-since no one else can stand the people here) and Huck’s big w/ baptists. But I peeked at another voter on my way out and he had Mitt too, there may be hope
Vote: None of the above!
Oh no! Don’t apologize to me! I typed my comment before yours even appeared to me. We must have been doing it at the same time.
I’m just stating that emotionally I understand why folks are voting for Fred, but really, don’t vote for Fred and then hope McCain gets beat because it won’t happen that way!
Alas … if that option were automatically there on every election ballot I think it would win more times than not … and I don’t just mean the current election …
No offense taken.
I know Fred has no chance today, but as I said, during a primary, I can’t be calculating and place a vote for someone which is actually a vote against someone else, especially when the second name on the list here was someone I can actually be ‘for.’
Now, I will feel really really bad if it comes down to one vote in this state.
Theme song of the day
Ok JamesLee, but you’re certainly not the only one to vote that way. It adds up.
I can be calculating any time it’s necessary.
As much as it broke my heart to give my vote to someone other than Fred, *sniff* I voted for Mitt in Manhattan this morning.
Hoping and praying for a large conservative voter turnout to begin the McCain Mutiny hopefully teaching the Stupid Party a very important lesson.
I really resent the way people try to label someone as ideological or dogmatic when ever they have principles and are not willing to waver from them for the flavor of the month.
Oh why, oh why did McCain’s campaign not go completely bankrupt when it had the chance? Hope he doesn’t do the same thing with his first month in office – It would be embarrassing to see the Commander in Chief carrying his own bags through the airport.
Voted this morning in AZ.
I had a different polling from last time, actually a little closer to my home. I was the only voter there, one guy appeared to be leaving as I pulled in. This was just over an hour after the polls opened.
Nice elderly ladies, possibly save for the one that said “oh, he’s Republican” as I signed my name. I couldn’t really pick out if it was innocent or if I was reading too much into it.
Chalk one up for Romney. I know the odds are long in McCain’s state, but if people ignored the MSM and voted for who they wanted instead of the media-chosen candidate, we’d be in better shape anyway.
FYI, a Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby poll has Romney 7 points UP in California and Obama has a 13 point lead over Hillary.
Read that on Drudge and Fox.
But what about Barrack?
This is priceless
That’s too funny. Dogmatic and ideological aren’t bad things in of themselves. How is being principled unique from being ideological or dogmatic? What are your principals based upon? Good chance against dogma or ideals. Why is that bad?
Brokenman… I am amazed that McCain is leading in his own state since he is Mr. McAmnesty and AZ is a border state. I really haven’t been able to figure that out!
Report her.
I’m in Oklahoma and voting for Romney. They are predicting a record turnout in our state today….
Oink
It’s because of massive population growth with mostly people from other states coming here and registering as Republican and not knowing McCain’s real history as our Senator so they don’t know any better and aren’t listening to others locally …
But don’t throw that towel in just yet … long way to go today … and most people here in the Phx area tend to vote in the afternoon by leaving work early and stopping at the polls on the way home …
I’ve had it with the Doles (altho Liz voted against shamesty). We don’t get to vote until May, so this election must be kept alive or MSM is to blame.
A local columnist refers to John Edwards as “NC’s perpetual embarrassment”. Would Hill name him AG? Probably not. Scary thought though.
E-mailed Special@FoxNews.com last night to vent rage about their “it’s too late” mantra. Go Mitt!!
#42 jenmom
I’m an Okie, too. I heard on the radio this morning that some are predicting only a 20% turnout.
However, I’m going to be one of them. My heart wants me to vote for Fred. But, my head says to vote for Mitt. I disagree with him on many issues, such as gun control. And, as an Evangelical Christian I have issues with the Mormon religion. But, I know that McShame will be a disaster for this country.
USMCgramma… I started emailing Fox back in October 2007. I quit watching them altogether in November 2007. Fox News = MSM in my opinion.
Romney coming on FNC after commercial
Name recognition and, probably, nothing more.
I just took my 6 year old son to vote with me. What a disaster for a ballot layout. When it got to Romney’s delegates, they have them spread out on two different pages, with delegates for Huckabee and others listed between the first nine and the last three of Romney’s. Seemed like a peculiar layout to me.
Did my part for Massachusetts this morning. Mitt all the way!
Vote: Quimby
Don’t fool yourself.
RomnestyCare=McAmnesty=Anti-Conservative
Think it is any coincidence that the DOW is off 200+ points today????
Coincidence? No.
A clue of things, maybe, yet to come? Quite possibly.
man-o-man fox sure does give Huckty Dumpty alot of air time… grrrrrrr
If Mitt don’t win it….
If we vote in McCain, and he screws us all – how can we get the “public” to vote in a good conservative next time with a bad taste of republicans in their mouth?
If Hillary/Obama gets elected – won’t we have a better chance of electing who we want next time?
Any thoughts?
I have a question. Isn’t the primary from what I know unless things changed only for Rep/Dem to vote? No independents may vote. If so NJ let an ind vote this morning in my district.
Please, oh please let Mitt still have life when we get to vote here in Wisconsin.
I think our primary is in July or August.
At least it seems so.
Milwaukee Mike, from the sidelines, out.
I can’t speak for other states, xler8bmw. But, in Tennessee, it is an open primary state.
You have to declare in which you want to vote but it is not closed just to registered Republicans to vote in their primary.
As a former fredhead I will be heading out shortly to vote for Mitt here in Ca. The only thing I can’t figure out is whether or not to tax the Indians to pay for what the illegals have taken from us.
Well, it’s going to be a long day of voting and I’ve got things to do.
I had better make the most of it and work on some things here around the house, since I have the day off from the office.
I have some sheetrock calling my name that needs to be sanded in an bathroom addition we are adding on. My wife will have my head, if I sit here at the computer all day and don’t get some of it done.
xler8bmw and Barry F.
The rules vary from state to state … You have hit on one of my complaints about the whole process …
I compared it yesterday to letting the NBA commissioner set rulings for the NFL …
Only those that are registered party members should be allowed to vote in party primary that is intended to select that party’s candidates …
In my view that invalidates the entire vote and opens it up to corruption and manipulation by the opposing party …
I actually believe we have had exactly that in some of these early primaries … although I can’t prove it …
Barack Obama is not Generation X. He is a baby boomer. Gen X started in 1965.
Any idea what Mitt Romney is (presumably baby boomer)?
Bigurn
Baby Boomer … 1947
Again a weak showing by the conservative “leaders” and pundits…Ladies and gentlemen the next President of the United States….Mr. Barak Obama
I believe it too!!!!
# 62 that’s what I’m saying this voter didn’t declare prior to 12/17 which is the cut-off for NJ and picked her party today. Maybe I aksed incorrectly. She said she wasn’t affiliated she was independent then when she was told she had to pick a party she picked a party right there.
#66 On February 5th, 2008 at 10:24 am, Bigurn said:
“Barack Obama is not Generation X. He is a baby boomer. Gen X started in 1965.”
Correct.
#71 he’s not a baby boome rhe’s only 47. Baby’s boomers were born 1946. Get a clue!
On February 5th, 2008 at 10:15 am, Milwaukee Mike said:
Please, oh please let Mitt still have life when we get to vote here in Wisconsin.
Mke Mike, I am with you. I am also in the area & want to vote for Mitt. I feel disenfranchised! What will we do if he drops out bebfore we get our say?
Sometimes its nice to come here to MM just to see that i’m not the only one depressed about McCain. I will never vote for him and won’t be swayed. The man is dangerous.
dartagnans_blade
You are misinterpreting my statement … I am only referring to the primaries in that statement …
In a general election you can vote for anyone you want … but cross party voting in primaries that are designed to determine the candidate of a party should not be open …
In the primaries so far they show that Romney has gotten the most “conservative” votes … but McCain is getting all the cross-over and independent voters where the primary is “open” … and Florida was found to have had a massive amount of voter registration changes right before the elections …
Hmmm … the DNC disenfranchised the FL voters so their votes don’t cound at the convention … so they register as Republicans and vote for McCain in the Rep primary … if that doesn’t sound like a contaminated vote I guess there is no such thing …
If that is the case I guess that means the Pope and all the bishops and priests around the world can vote at the southern Baptist convention next year …
Or all the members of the Elks can vote at the next Masonic Lodge meeting …
Would be the same thing at a different level …
Has anyone seen a site with continuous delegate result updates? or early voting results? Trying to stay on top of this but haven’t found a good site yet. Is there not any news yet?
Just curious.
FredHead in AZ. Just voted for Romney. I don’t want Romney for POTUS but I don’t want Hillary/Obama/McCain to be POTUS worser;)
There was one doofus, standing out in the school parking lot saying nothing, just wearing his most groovy Ron Paul rEVOLution t-shirt.
Riiiiiiiiiiiight.
I’m in NY, and I voted for Romney this morning… He wasn’t my first choice, but I like him a lot better than McCain.
MrVIBEMAN
Once the polls start closing on the east coast there will be several of the major news sites and newspaper sites that will have them …
My preference is to go to individual state election board sites for updating …
FYI d’Artagnan, you are a democrat “for all intents and purposes”, regardless of how intense you are;)
I’m counting on the silent Romney Majority to rise and vote today.
Let’s give McCan’t a run for the money here.
Don’t believe the media-created/invented polls. These are as phony as they can get.
I don’t understand why that beacon of free speech (McCain-Feingold) legislation does not force equal time on the MSM? The TODAY Show was a virtual love fest for Hillary and Obama. Seems to me the pubah of media bragged their reporting would give John (he served in Vietnam) Kerry 16 points.
Romney, like Thompson, is blacked out in all major newspapers, wires, and TV. If I were him, I’d at least test it in court.
#72 xler8bmw
Kill the motor, dude.
The baby boom began in 1946 and ran through 1964. Hence, there are approximately 78 million of us.
jukin
All of the candidates and some of their supporters have been on Fox this morning starting with all of them being interviewed on Fox & Friends early this A.M. …
*Thinking out loud*
Sooo..if the polls start closing at 5pm, that’s 3pm Illinois time…
I guess I’ll start seeing early results right after work.
I predict a huge win for Romney in California and Georgia. I think after today, McCain will look like a deer in the headlights.
I’ll vote Hillary before I vote McCain. Obama, eh.
I need something like this, too. Anyone got any ideas?
The liberal mindset is a scary thing.
Yes, and unfortunately the MSM will start “calling” races which influences voters in the western states (CA) unfortunately.
#84 there was a huge decline starting in 1960’s depending on what you read we’re really not the population considered the real boomers but, crossed over into gen xers. Thanks for playing.
I have found this site to be good in the past.
Please think before you write. Sound it out if you have to.
I think Romney is a little more dangerous than McCain. Republicans are more unfamiliar with Romney and his liberalism and so he is more likely to slip through and do damage. Whereas more people know about McCain’s sorry record first hand and will actively oppose him.
http://www.trueromney.com
http://michellemalkin.com/2007/12/13/digging-deeper-the-enviro-nitwit-ization-of-the-gop/
http://michellemalkin.com/2007/12/16/romney-on-meet-the-press-gun-rightsimmigration-positions-under-fire/
Intents and purposes… Did we all know what the writer meant? Can we skip the school marm stuff and just talk about politics today?