Super Tuesday: It begins
Scroll down for updates…interactive results map here…West Virginia GOP convention on second vote (Huck voters to throw to McCain?) 2:02pm McCain concedes defeat in WVa…WVa goes to Huck…
Scott at Election Projection has his big Super Duper Mega Jumbo Tuesday predictions up. Reality bites:
Here’s how I see the Republican races unfolding today. John McCain will be the big winner. He is still riding the momentum from his victories in South Carolina and Florida - plus he enjoys a structural advantage. Unlike the Democrats, who award all delegates (except super delegates) proportionally according to the vote, state GOP conventions have several methods for allocating their delegates. Many states have a winner-take-all format. Others use a proportional model. Still others choose a modified winner-take-all system which takes congressional district results into account.
It just so happens that in many states where McCain is ahead, the method is winner-take-all. As a result, he stands to gain large delegate blocks in such states as New York, Arizona, Missouri, and New Jersey. One the other hand, with the exception of Utah, states Mitt Romney might be expected to win break down the allocation of delegates to more than one candidate. For example, Romney’s home state of Massachusetts employs a proportional model.
The bottom line is that McCain’s delegates will come easier than Romney’s, increasing the effect of his strong polling numbers nationwide. I’m predicting McCain will win 60% to 65% of the delegates at stake today. Mitt Romney will come in with 25% to 30% or so, and Mike Huckabee, around 10%. Ron Paul’s best chance of picking up delegates will come in Alaska. Other than that, he may snatch a delegate here and there, but his haul won’t amount to much.
On the Dem side, it looks like there still won’t be a clear winner at the end of the day.
If you’re voting today, let us know how you voted and what the mood is at the polls.
YouTube has a Super Tuesday page here. If you’ve got a camera, make sure to upload your video and provide some conservative flavor.
States/territories voting:
Alabama
Alaska
American Samoa
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Georgia
Idaho
Illinois
Kansas
Massachusetts
Minnesota
Missouri
Montana
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Dakota
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Utah
West Virginia
From the USAToday cheat sheet:
7 p.m. ET: Polls close in Georgia, where Democrats award 87 delegates and Republicans award 72.
• 8 p.m. ET: Polls close in Illinois (153 Democratic delegates, 57 Republican); Massachusetts (93 Democratic, 40 Republican); Missouri (72 Democratic and 58 Republican); and New Jersey (107 Democratic, 52 Republican).
• 9 p.m. ET: Polls close in Arizona (56 Democratic and 50 Republican); and New York (232 Democratic, 101 Republican).
• 10 p.m. ET: Polls close in Utah (23 Democratic; 36 Republican).
• 11 p.m. ET: Polls close in California (370 Democratic; 170 Republican).
More helpful info here.
***
Reader David L. sends this graphic on the front page of the Wisconsin State Journal, which has apparently decided that the GOP race is already over:
PJM has a big round-up here.
David Harsanyi at the Denver Post weighs in on McCain vs. conservatives:
This week McCain will be stopping in at the Conservative Political Action Conference to cultivate the hard hearts of the rank and file.
He will, self-effacingly, forward the fable that he was a mere “foot soldier” in the Reagan Revolution. Serving in the house beginning in 1983, McCain was, at best, a soldier in mop-up operations.
Who knows? The mood of the country might be swinging towards John McCain pragmatism. Conservatives might be an ideological minority in the Republican Party, once again. But things change.
After all, one day Karl Rove is planning a permanent Republican majority, the next day he’s a Fox News analyst, pondering whether Democrats will have a veto-proof majority in the Senate in 2009.
And perhaps conservatives are dead wrong. Maybe McCain will become a great Republican president. Still, there’s nothing shameful about holding your ground on principle.
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Update 10:10am Eastern. There’s bad weather in the Upper Midwest.
And as usual, a small spate of voting problems have already been reported. Glitches in NJ kept Dem. Gov Jon Corzine from casting his ballot.
A left-wing group is complaning about an extra bubble voters in Los Angeles County have to fill in to complete their ballots.
Update 11:21am Eastern. All the latest on the Dole/McCain vs. Rush scuffle here.
Update 12:27pm Eastern. Newsflash: Hillary coughed. I’m sure the WaPo reporter who covered Maureen Dowd’s stomach bug will be on the case ASAP!
Update 12:34pm Eastern. FNC reporting that West Virginia’s convention cast votes. No candidate received more than 50 percent, so they are re-voting. More at the Charleston Gazette, which reports that the Huck folks may be working to deny Romney a win: “There is speculation on the convention floor that rather than stay with McCain on the second ballot, his supporters may switch to Huckabee in order to give him a victory over Romney.”
Update 2:02pm Eastern. McCain concedes defeat in WVa- via Charleston Gazette…
Former Louisiana Gov. Buddy Roemer conceded defeat for Sen. John McCain at West Virginia’s Republican state convention on Tuesday.
Roemer, who represented McCain at the Charleston event, asked McCain boosters to support Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee on the second ballot in order to block former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.
Update 2:27pm Eastern. McCain voters’ assist gives Huck the win in WVa.
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Categories: 2008 campaign, John McCain, Mitt Romney
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On February 5th, 2008 at 3:14 pm, JamesLee said:
Article 2 Section 1:
No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any Person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty five Years, and been fourteen Years a Resident within the United States.
“Natural born citizen” I don’t think means exclusively born on the mainland. If I’m not mistaken, military bases are considered United States soil, I know US Navy ships are. It would make an interesting argument, but I don’t think it would go anywhere.
OK, to set the matter straight, it does not matter if a person is born on US soil, a military base or in the middle of Iran. If one of his or her parents are a US citizen, he or she is US citizen by birth.
Are there really people out there so stupid that they believe if a couple is vacationing in Europe and the woman goes into labor that the baby would not be a US citizen?
As for any hope of disqualifying McCain based on his being a military brat, it is the Democrats who hate the military and want to f@#% them over, not the Republican party. At least that is the way it used to be.
They close at different times.
I hope Mitt cries fowl over what McCain/Huck have done in WV. And the voters themselves should be thrown in prison for corrupting the process.
I remember learning way back that ONE of the U.S. Presidents, whose father was ambassador to Mexico at the time, was NOT born in the “U.S.A.”; but, was born at the American Embassy in Mexico (I believe in the mid-19th century), and therefore had been born on “American soil”, and was therefore eligible to become President.
I’ve struck out trying to confirm this, and which President it was, on the ‘net, however.
I found ONE site, a suggested lesson for teachers, that listed the Presidents’ birth states - no U.S. Embassy listed…*sigh*.
Anybody got an old-fashioned book about the Presidents?
West Virginia = I call Shenanigans!
Anyone still doubt the Huckster is nothing more than McCain’s willing TOOL?
But seriously though, who’s going to vote for a general election Presidency based on the boast that they carried Iowa and West Virginia? People that marry their cousins?
Status of forces agreement
Negotiating a SOFA begins with the assumption that the presence of U.S. military forces is in the interests of the host government as well as the U.S. government. The starting proposition is that the host country exercises complete authority over all of its territory and over anyone who is in that territory, subject to any agreements that make exceptions to that authority.
Most SOFAs recognize the right of the host government to “primary jurisdiction,” which is to say the host country exercises jurisdiction for all cases in which U.S. military personnel violate the host country’s laws. There are two exceptions, however, which generally apply only in criminal cases involving U.S. forces personnel: When the offense is committed by Americans against Americans (”inter se” cases), and when the offense is committed by Americans in carrying out official duty. In these situations, the United States has primary jurisdiction over the accused American.
#204 Granite - I posted further up (#195) - George Romney, presidential candidate and father of candidate Mitt Romney, was born in Mexico to U.S. citizens.
If everything is decided today I will be disenfranchised (sp?) because I live in Texas and we don’t vote until March. Sooooo whats the point. It all started in Iowa like they were the ones to set the stage and it has rolled down hill from there. I’m starting to think all primarys should be held nation-wide on the same day so everyone has a chance to vote for the person they want and then let the games start.
I can understand that there are people upset with the results in WV, but anyone calling it “illegal” or against the rules really needs to step back and look at what happens at any convention.
Have you never heard the term “brokered convention”?
There was nothing illegal or unethical about it and it doesn’t show that Huck is in the bag for McCain.
It was a smart strategic move by McCain. His campaign doesn’t fear Huck.
What was Huck supposed to do, ask people not to vote for him?
Romney has played the whole campaign dirty and the second something doesn’t go his way his supporters are the first to cry.
#209 “What was Huck supposed to do, ask people not to vote for him?”
Actually, if he had any morals, he’d be telling voters to vote for who they believe in, whether that person is leading or not.
However I’m not one to talk - if McCain ends up on top, I’m voting Hillary come November. I’d rather generations to come learn a lesson about voting Dem than having a RINO take the fall for what will happen in the US over the coming years.
I like the illustration. Sour wine made from the grapes of wrath, no doubt.
This is rather off subject but did anyone besides me get the free premiere issue of Townhall’s print edition in the mail yesterday? It has Michelle in the lower right corner, along with some others scattered about the page with a caption that says “WHO decides?”
Look out! It looks like Michelle has some stroke!
I don’t like the Iowa-NH system either, but Mrs. Malkin made a great point a while back about the need to have some form of retail politics. Shaking hands, kissing babies, getting to know the “common man.”
Of course, the large number of disenfranchised every year is unacceptable. Hopefully 2012 will offer a new and better way.
#209, please inform me how Romney has played dirty…I’d like to know what in thunder you are boasting about.
If McCain ends up winning this thing we can blame it all on John Edwards’ hair. Why you ask? Because it was a well-timed joke on Edwards’ hair that got Mike Huckabee the initial bit of media attention that got the MSM talking about Huck (remeberm Brownback tells the same joke in the next debate, bombs it, and is out of the race shortly afterwards).
Huck’s folksiness impresses enough people to give him the support needed to climb in the polls and he continues to show the same charm in the proceeding debates. By the time most people get a hold of Huck’s record he’s challenging Rudy in Florida and taking away Romney’s votes in South Carolina.
While never getting enough support to win the nomination, Huckabee siphons enough votes away from Romney, which gives McCain wins in key states (most likely) a Romey defeats where he would have otherwise won (W. Virginia).
So remember if the guy who eschews converatism on every major issue becomes the GOP candidate, the root cause of it all (pun sligtly intended), may be John Edwards hair.
I have decided not to vote this year. This is the first time ever for me to not vote. I am 49. Best I can tell I would be voting for a Democrat regardless if there is an (R) or (D) after their name. What is the point? I decided after the Iraq war vote that I wouldn’t support Duncan (TN, Republican) for congressman any longer either. Do I feel bad about his? Yes. But I would feel worse voting for any of these clowns.
MM has a new Super Tuesday thread going now.
Just got back from my small town polling place. Voted for Romney.
My husband and I went there, not too many people voting. But that’s usual here, as the town population is only 15K if you don’t count the illegals.
I used the new electronic voting machine (has a paper record too by law here in CA) and my husband used the traditional scanning paper ballot.
My husband’s paper ballot refused to scan several times. Finally it went through. The workers there weren’t the brightest bulbs either.