Why the GOP lost Hastert’s seat, continued
Over the weekend, I noted the GOP’s very significant defeat in the special election for former House Speaker Dennis Hastert’s congressional seat. Open-borders propagandists have seized the opportunity to blame losing Republican Jim Oberweis’s loss on his tough, pro-immigration enforcement stance. Reason magazine gloated and Wall Street Journal editorial board showed open glee:
Republicans such as Mr. Oberweis remain convinced that illegal immigration is a winning issue. And if the electorate were comprised mostly of Internet screechers and cable news anchors, they might be right. But the fact that Mr. McCain, the Presidential candidate most closely associated with immigration tolerance, has outlasted Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee and other immigration hardliners, should be an indication that other issues are foremost in the minds of even GOP voters.
Saturday’s result showed once again that a hard line on illegal immigration doesn’t win elections. The longer Republicans pretend that it does the more elections they will lose.
Once again, the Wall Street Journal gets it wrong. Here’s what those in the know–those without shamnesty-lust rotting their brains–had to say about Oberweis’s defeat:
The 14th District has long been considered a Republican stronghold. So how did Foster, a scientist and businessman from Geneva, muster enough votes to win? His campaign staffers believe that voters are hungry for change, and an endorsement by Illinois’ own political rock star, Sen. Barack Obama, certainly didn’t hurt the cause.
But prominent area Republicans think the difference might have had more to do with Republicans not turning up at the polls — or voting for Foster, if they did come out to vote. That, combined with low turnout overall (roughly 20 percent of registered voters cast ballots) turned the tide for Foster, some are saying.
Oberweis spokesman Bill Pascoe said Monday that it is too early to accurately assess how the election slipped away. He said he would need to see numbers telling him who voted, and where.
“One of two things is true,” Pascoe said. “Either we had a problem with our message, or a problem with organization.”
Kane County GOP Chairman Michael Kenyon said a Saturday election might have kept people away, but he also was critical of the campaigns both candidates ran. He suggested that there was too much negative campaigning on both sides, and too many automated calls to people’s homes.
“I got called by Barack Obama, Michelle Obama, Bill Foster, Denny Hastert, the NRCC (National Republican Congressional Committee), and Jim Oberweis himself,” Kenyon said. “I told them all I voted the first day of early voting.”
But Kenyon added that the intensely negative primary election between Oberweis and State Sen. Chris Lauzen might have convinced some Republicans to stay home. After being defeated, Lauzen declined to endorse Oberweis, holding out for an apology for what he saw as an unfair attempt to damage his reputation.
Kenyon said that might have made a difference, but chastised Lauzen for his decision. And political blogs this weekend filled up with comments criticizing Lauzen for not uniting the party when he had the chance.
“That was a bad choice on Lauzen’s part,” Kenyon said. “People never forget.”
Lauzen could not be reached for comment Monday, but his former campaign staffer (and former Kane GOP chairman) Denny Wiggins said that the negative campaigning of the primary election was certainly a factor in Saturday’s result.
“People were pretty turned off,” Wiggins said. “Lauzen supporters were disappointed, and either didn’t vote, or voted the wrong way.”
There are other Republicans, however, who blame Oberweis for the loss, citing his previous attempts at public office — he ran unsuccessfully for Senate in 2002 and 2004, and for governor in 2006. Some have called him an unlikable candidate, and one high-ranking Republican operative went so far as to suggest Oberweis step aside.
But the real reasons don’t fit the open-borders narrative. Self-delusion is a wonderful thing.
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I’m going to have to agree with the WSJ. At least for the here and now. This is a bad time to be running as a Republican no matter what your views on immigration are. A conservative immigration policy isn’t fixing that. Republicans need to find something else to run on in 2008. Tackle immigration when things are looking better for the party.
It’s hard to separate our passions from the reality on the ground. I’m staunchly against capital punishment in all scenarios, but that doesn’t mean my preferred candidates should be preaching against the death penalty in his/her stump speeches. The issue just isn’t a winner. The best I can hope for are gradual steps.
I think the GOP, at least in 2008, has to do the same.
Illinois’s own Rahm Emannuel knows what dems have to do as he stated earlier this year that his party must move center.
He was talking about tougher stance on immigration.
I am sick of hearing that this is illegal immigration is a non-issue.
I recommend everyone go to http://www.bordermovie.com and order this movie and support the Minutemen.
In this movie everyone will see how broken our border is and the amount of drugs pushed through the front lines in the war started on our southern border.
And if amnesty is granted they will NOT rush to vote for the GOP and they will lose even more elections….c’mon WSJ, are you trying to sabotage the GOP???
They only cite these examples when they are advantageous to their agenda. How about taking a look at the defeat of the licenses for illegals in New York debacle… New York? Or better yet, how about the message we sent when we shutdown the Congressional switchboards? No, don’t want to talk about that, huh? The time to address the invasion we are facing has passed. The time is now. We may not have tomorrow.
That’s my doomsday prediction and I’m sticking to it.
Senate Bill 2717 is being proposed. It will allow/require local law enforcement to be involved in illegal immigration issues.. ie. turn the suckers in or lock them up. Call your senator and ask that they support this bill. Then your congressman.person/ when it gets to the floor. The immigration issue is repeat is important.
Sadly, the WSJ is correct. The candidacies of Tancredo and Hunter — the two who were most closely identified with the issue — barely registered a blip on the radar. And, that’s with Republican voters.
To those who doubt me, I offer two words: John McCain.
#3… If amnesty is granted, no one will need to sabotage the GOP. The massive increase in democrat voters (illegals) will see to that.
Oberweis was already a three-time political loser and voters simply tuned him out.
See my #3 above, if the GOP just says to heck with it, and grants amnesty, we will LOSE even more elections.
In the past the GOP did the right thing and freed the slaves, then pushed through the civil rights amendment and now the GOP is considered the party of racists and bigots. If amnesty is granted, the GOP will still be the party of bigots and the democrats will get most of the “newly legal” vote.
to clarify, I am perfectly aware that the GOP is not the party of bigots, just the label the Dems have hung around their necks….
MM,
This was a good post, because it gives other reasons why the seat was lost. The view from the WSJ is downing everybody out.
jose
Sorry but you did not hit on the REAL reason he lost.
In other words voters have said time and again they didn’t want Oberweis as a candidate, yet the Illinois Republican committee keeps putting him on the ticket. This is like when they put Alan Keyes on the ticket and what the heck are they thinking in Illinois. The only reason he even got as many votes he did was because of those who vote for those with a (R) after their name, not that people supported him. I have to wonder what drugs are in the water the people from the Illinois Republican party are drinking by continuing to promote failed candidates.
This vote had nothing to do with immigration. There were 2 main factors:
- Oberweis was a weak candidate.
- People are tired of the Bush/ Republican oligarchy.
Whatever the reason, it doesn’t seem that a stance against illegal immigration is enough. I have no clue why, but all with strong stances on this seem to be voted out. People are more in tune with what they think they can get instead of common sense conservative values.
How much did each party spend on this campaign? I seem to recall reading that the GOP had $8 million to spend supporting the election of their candidate, but only actually spent $1 million.
People are voted out with strong conservative values???
Have you ever heard of Motor Voter Registration Law by Bill Clinton?
Did you ever wonder why license for illegals is even an issue?
We have no National Voter verification law or card. Anyone that says we do not have voter fraud is a fool.
How many City and County voter registration clerks verify every application for a voter card?
What is it that we sign when we register to vote…….under penalty of law do you affirm that you are a citizen?
The GOP needs to hold tight to its anti-illegal immigration stance and continue to push for the wall, because if the economy really does tank into recession and unemployment rises, the jobs Americans will not do are sure to become the jobs the Democrats denied Americans – and gave to illegals.
Likewise and in spite of what the WSJ may say, as newly unemployed citizens begin to assume day- and unskilled-labor jobs, the illegal immigrants problem will pretty much resolve itself!
I think the Repubs just plain stayed home because they are tired of the free-spending RINOs and the same-old, same-old Repub people telling us the same old lies about “enforcing the borders.”
Why should we believe anything the Republicans tell us at this point? I don’t. People are just plain dropping out.
We are tired and worn out with an endless war, no strategy in place to stop the Islamification of our country, no plan in place to stop the “invasion” from Mexico, the Iraqis that our kids fought and died to set free from Saddam Hussein are now kissing and holding hands with the Iranians, and it goes on and on……….
And don’t think I’m a dove. I’m as hawkish as anybody on this website about winning the War – but none of the Repubs has a clue about what is driving the jihad and none has shown the least interest in finding out what is driving it, including Senator McCain. It’s called Islam and Islamic doctrine.
I wouldn’t want to project my prejudices on the voters, as the pro-illegal propagandists are doing. I’m sure someone will get around to polling the dear voters.
In general I would surmise the Republicans have self-destructed with squandering trillions of dollars and American blood on an unnecessary war in Iraq for the benefit of Israel and the neocons, and demonstrating total incompetence afterwards in the colonization of Iraq. The sins of the Republicans have been so extensive I wouldn’t be surprised if even most Republicans would welcome a change, even if it is the Democrats. Certainly they cannot be more liberal in spending than the Republicans have been, or more corrupt on illegal migration, or more destructive with affirmative action, or more intolerant of freedom than Bush, etc.
Sadly Alphonse I have to agree with most of what you wrote.
I don’t live in Oberweiss’ district so I didn’t get any literature in the mail. But I did hear a zillion radio spots on the radio, and I believe there were only two different spots. The first kept citing a paper study that Foster’s liberal bent would cost every tax payer in that district $3914 in extra taxes. The other was a rebuttal to a Foster radio spot that mentioned illegal immigrants had been found working in one of Oberweiss’ business locations (of which there are many). Adds by both Foster and Oberweiss were very tiring to listen to with the usual amounts of misinformation or lack of information to skew the comments. For example the illegal immigrant workers were employees of a contractor and not of Oberweiss. But I think it was all very tiring and more of the same old stuff we always get from politicians so I could understand why voters were not extremely motivated to go out and vote.
Say, I wonder if that Jack Ryan goomer is up for running in November. At least that would be interesting.
The Republican party in Illinois has been in suicide mode for so many years now having been ground down by the Democrats and machine politics in the state. I have the feeling the same thing is about to happen to the national Republican party. Once you reach a critical mass of graft and corruption and dependence it becomes practically impossible to change the direction of the ship.
Nice catch, Michelle. We will all have to be on the lookout for this sort of biased coverage and criticize it openly wherever we find it.
Small Republican Voter Turnout… Coming to a Precinct near you!!!!
My Interest in Voting this year with McCain as the Candidate, rests between the interest I have in Picking out Socks, and attending an All day Insurance Seminar.
Amen!!!!
As a Republican living in Illinois, I know exactly what you are talking about. They were simply looking at skin color when it came to Alan Keyes. Carpetbagging be damned! (Although The IL Dems did this too with Tammy Duckworth, a Hawaiian they shipped in to run. She was an Iraq War vet against the war.)
The Chicago GOP can’t ever get any folks to win elections in the city.
The people they do put on the ballot are what they call “sacrificial lambs”. They tell these people right off the bat not to expect to win. In turn, these candidates get no money from the state or national GOP. They flitter about aimlessly, then come election night, they go to the city GOP party to watch the results on TV. Then they kid around with their fellow Chicago Republicans about how they “succeeded” in getting 15% of the vote.
(And I am the one told that I’m not ready to run for office??????) I guess I have too much political experience . I’m also too serious about elections.
I can’t sit back and let the Dems do everything, like a Republican in the Tip O’Neill Congress.
Those (here and elsewhere) arguing that illegal immigration is a losing issue has his/her head in the sand.
States are rushing to pass popular bi-partisan legislation while Bush and Congress fiddle.
Here is last year’s list of state initiatives.
And here is the story of success at the state level.
McCain’s own Arizona is in the lead, with a law signed by the Democrat governor.
Check out Democrat Heath Shuler’s SAVE Act here, and send a free FAX to your Congresscritters.
151 bi-partisan sponsors – are YOUR Senators and Rep. on board??
GOOD RIDDANCE! We should not rest until every stinkin’ sorry, perverted compromising, un-American RINO is tossed out of Washington!
And why should anyone come out and vote for the Republican party?? If you want a real socialst you go with the Demoncrats. If you want a conservative, you stay home. QED.
A pox on both their houses.
I am in the district in IL, and I can attest to the “Republican party wasn’t organized” end of things… I received no literature in the mail, only saw a handful of tv ads (none of which explained anything other than “the other candidate is a liar/loser,” not what they were running for or why), and saw nothing — zip. nada. bubkes — in the local newspapers. If that’s the way the party works to get people to the polls, it’s no wonder the Republicans lost this past weekend’s election and no wonder Springfield is in the clutches of so many spectacularly corrupt Chicago (Rezko-owned and operated) Democrats. The IL Republican party just keeps handing elections to them on a silver platter.
For crying out loud, they kicked a man off their ticket for his having wanted to have sex with his own famously hot wife, and replaced him with the carpetbagger! How inept can a party get?
The WSJ is so Full of S. I remember reading in The State Journal Register awhile back about a raid on illegals in Beardstown, Il. and the comment section on the website was full of pro enforcement comments. 1 or 2 open boarder comments made it though, probablly the same person using different handles. The paper is in Sangamon COunty and is solidly red. Look at how many REpublicans are on the county board and that will tell you.
The real issue is that Replublicans like myself saw how McCain and Mel Martinez and Gramnesty all pushed for the open boarder amnesty crap and it’s time we punished them for not listening to the base.
WSJ, there are other towns in Illinois that are not Chicago and that do not have Chicago’s frame of mind.
Rezko trial going to Harm Obama? Not a chance. It’s going to sting Gov. Rod Bag-o-chips, you can bet on that. Well, that is if the star witness stands up as credible after all the evidence of his alleged drug use comes out. We’re not talking a little Mary Jane either.
I was born and raised in Springfield and you are 100% correct. The Illinois Republican Party needs a shot in the arm and some folks need to step aside and let new blood in. (I double your comment on Jack’s wife, wow)
Sorry, Jack’s exwife.
Look at the same tired old faces. It appears that the Rep.party is locked in to the same old Rino’s and they are hanging on with bloody fingernails. Meanwhile the Dems show new fresh faces and get the energy the party needs. Shame on us.
The Chicago Tribune was instrumental in getting the guy’s divorce papers unsealed so his “sex life” with his wife could be exposed. this got him kicked off the ticket. That lousy paper never bothers to investigate any Dem’s habits before an election. This last election, since they are pro illegal alien, they endorsed the Dem that won the election because “we need a fresh face”. I don’t buy their paper any more because they are full of crap.
It should be noted that one of the reasons Oberweis was selected was because of his money. He could self fund and the state party wouldn’t have to kick in any money.
On a more worrisome note, I live next door to this district, in the 11th. Our Rep. congressman is retiring this year. Three challengers ran in the primary. The mayor of a local town won the primary on Feb. 5th. Approximately two weeks later this man dropped from the race, basically saying this was too hard, etc etc etc.
The district now has no Rep.to oppose the Dem.nominee.
Fact is, the most strident friends of border enforcement have been losing elections in disproportionate numbers- JD Hayworth, Randy Graf, Vernon Robinson to name a few.
Conservatives who want the borders enforced do not appear to be a majority in the electorate. Case in point, McCain is our nominee- ack.
The number one reason Bill Foster won was because he is a good candidate, a scientist who ran an excellent campaign. What put him over the top was the endorsement by Barack Obama, here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gnaGlxUUFv4
If Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee for President this “coattail effect” is going to have impact throughout the country. With an Obama candidacy Marilyn Musgrave in the Colorado 4th Congressional district is history. With the higher turnout for Barack she will be wiped out by newcomer Betsy Markey. Mark Udall will also easily win the US Senate seat if Obama is the nominee for the Democrats. (Republican Wayne Allard is retiring)
Conservatives better wake up because if Obama is the nominee he is going to approach 80 million popular votes in the general election. Consider the fact that John Kerry didn’t break the 60 million mark in 2004. McCain will be lucky to get 55 million in the general with many conservatives voting third party or staying home this fall.
I see the Democrats getting close to 60 Senators, a pickup of +9 and picking up 25 to 30 House seats in November.