The consequences of Iran’s nuclear project
Pretend for a second that we’re all wrong about Iran. Think like a liberal.
Assume that Iran tells the truth when they say that they just really want some nuclear energy, and that’s why they’ve started enriching uranium. Imagine, if you can, that the Israel-off-the-map stuff from Ahmedinejad really was just rhetoric to keep the yokels in line and not any kind of serious threat.
So say we’ve just misunderstood Iran. Turns out we’re not the only ones who are misunderstanding them:
In the 11 months that followed the onset of this procedure [uranium enrichment--SeeDub] in Iran in 2006, 13 countries across the Middle East drew up new plans – or revived old ones – for building nuclear power stations.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies believes they were acting “in the shadow of Iran” and preparing for Tehran’s possible entry into the nuclear weapons club.
All the proposed nuclear programmes are civilian schemes designed to generate electricity. At present, there is no question of any international safeguards being breached. Yet if Iran were to test a nuclear bomb, every country in the Middle East would be forced to re-assess its defence policies.
So maybe you think the news about Iran making nuclear weapons is just a neocon lie. Do you think that’s also true of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and nearly a dozen other nations in the region ready to spin up centrifuges of their own?
Are they also all as well-intended as we are assuming that Iran is?
(And even ignoring the possibility of bad intentions: Will they all be sufficiently careful with these things? These are nuclear weapons we’re talking about. In Al Qaeda country.)
Anyway, all these nations–Islamic nations, most of them, and not those neocon Islamophobe warmongers–are signalling their own willingness to go nuclear to deter what they believe to be Iran’s nascent nuclear arsenal.
This means we’ve hit a situation where Iran’s desire to make itself more secure (or, since we are assuming the best about them here–to make themselves less reliant on fossil fuels and more reliant on nuclear power)–actually makes the region less secure.
There’s a name for this effect among the international-relations set: it’s called the security dilemma:
A frequently cited example of the security dilemma is the beginning of World War I. Supporters of this viewpoint argue that the major European powers felt forced to go to war by feelings of insecurity over the alliances of their neighbors, despite not actually desiring the war. Furthermore, the time necessary to mobilize large amounts of troops for defense led some Great Powers (such as Russia) to adopt a particularly accelerated mobilization timetable, which in turn put pressure on other states to mobilize early as well.
Iran knows this, of course, and they know what their neighbors are up to. If Iran wanted to stop this effect, they would comply with international law. They aren’t doing so. It’s a risky game, but if you think the Mahdi’s return is just around the corner and he’s on your side, why should you care? Especially if Al Qaeda (or Hezbollah) detonates a Saudi nuclear device in Riyadh or Long Beach.
Of course, once the Obamessiah sits down and explains all this to them, they’ll just slap their foreheads and say “Oh, we’re such ninnies! We’ll dismantle the whole nuclear program tomorrow. Sorry for the confusion.”
__________
{Post by See-Dubya; related previous Iran proliferation post here.}
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Categories: Iran
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I think we’re in store for an October surprise.
Oh. I missunderstood those nice Iranians. They are just clinging to nuclear energy and religeon just like me! Thanks cdub for the illumination!
Ugh. Do I have to?
No matter the outcome. Dems have the uncanny ability to absolve themselves from all accountability. In essence should Iran further their nuclear weapons ambitions and should, hypothetically speaking, anyone be harmed in their acquisition of said weapons, the blame will fall upon what is happening in Iraq and Afghanistan. Ultimately, BDS will reign supreme.
Damn close to an oxymoron there SeeDub!!
You mean smoke a doob and just “be”.
The liberals only want proof. Unfortuniately thier bar is set so high that thier “proof” will be the first weapons test of a fully functional bomb. Then it will be too late. Once Iran gets the bomb, every arab state will be working full speed to get thier own. Then its only a matter of time. They will use them.
Think like a liberal? Okay i am going to need oxycotton, rum, and mary jane….
When Bush went to Saudi Arabia to sign an agreement to provide the Saudis with nuclear technology, he was signaling his intent to set up a long term containment of Iran. There is no other rational reason for giving the Saudis nukes. After all, a major selling point for denying the Iranians nuclear technology is that they are swimming atop a sea of oil. Either Saudi Arabia is no longer swimming on a sea of oil or they need a deterrant against the Iranians. Plus, the Saudis actually have the capability to deliver nuclear weapons throughout the neighborhood with the CSS-2 MRBMs that they bought from China in the late 80s, unlike the Iranians who are still probably a decade away from being able to deliver a nuclear payload anywhere. We are going to use Israeli/Saudi nukes to deter Iran.
This doesn’t mean that there may not be localized, tactical clashes with the Iranians, but, I think it does rule out some major strategic clash with the Iranians, assuming they don’t mess up royally.
OK, it won’t be good if Iran gets the bomb. But America has faced more dangerous situations. The Soviets had thousands of nukes, ICMBs that could take them to American cities, and a conventional military stronger than NATO. We managed that conflict with negotiations.
There was another thread about Obama gaffes, like mistating the number of states (an attempt at humor?). McCain saying Iran is more dangerous than the former Soviet Union is a whole different level of gaffe. It’s not a slip of the tongue or a minor misunderstanding (Sioux Falls or Sioux City) but shows such a thorough misunderstanding of the past and present that the guy should be nowhere near command.
Sorry See-Dubya no can do. Being an old SAC trained killer I believe in the old mantra of “nuke’em till they glow so you can strafe them in the dark.” Iran has been a clear and present danger to our country since 4 Nov 79 and it is long since time we take care of this real threat to not only our national security, but that of the entire gulf region.
LGM, Are you serious? The USSR didn’t launch because they didn’t want to die, in Iran we are facing leaders who have no problem dying if they get to take out americans while doing so. The MAD doctrine just doesn’t apply. To compare the threat from Iran to the threat from the USSR is just stupid. They are completely different. Iran will use the bomb if it gets it, probably through a 3rd party. Hundreds of thousands will die. Isreal will attempt to take out Iran if it is not dealt with.
lgm said:
You mean like the proxy war fought in Afghanistan
lgm please stop thinking like a liberal. The old “Cold War” threat of mutually assured destruction (MAD) does not work with the Islamic Jihadist nut jobs. The only reason the Soviets did not attack us is they understood the threat and capabilities of the US nuclear arsenal and loved their form of life too much to commit suicide in a nuclear exchange. I certified for SAC Alert Duty under the Single Integrated Operation Plan (SIOP) under Emergency War Orders (EWO) for 11 years or as we called it the suicide mission to off load gas to our mated bomber giving every thing but the 300 gallons we couldn’t offload. Do you honestly think these people in a rush to get to their 72 virgins in paradise would worry about our retaliatory capability? If you do you are as clueless as Obama Lama Ding Dong.
The Russians treated nuclear war as a war they could win. They had the largest system of civil defense in the world. I have been to Young Pioneer camps where there were murals on the wall in the mess hall depicting cartoons of little kids in gas masks giving themselves atropine injections in anticipation of the enemy (us) using chemical weapons after the nuclear strikes.
Show me a 10 year old in the United States during the Cold War that would know what to do with an atropine injector.
I was at a conference in Monterey, CA, where one of the participants was a retired Strategic Rocket Forces Colonel-General. When he was a young Major in Cuba, he was in charge of a FROG missile unit. He had authority, independent of Moscow, to launch nuclear weapons on an American invasion.
Go to the National Security Archives and check out the account of the Captain of a Russian Foxtrot Submarine who came this close to launching a nuclear tipped torpedo at a harassing American destroyer.
If the Russians were afraid of starting a nuclear war, they sure had a funny way of showing it.
sonofdy has it correct.
When the US and the USSR were going back and forth, both were completely aware that any attack from the other would result in MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction).
Iran, however, does not hold that belief. They are just fine killing themselves in the process of trying to kill someone else, simply because they believe that doing so is fundamentally rewarded in the afterlife.
Iran has also directly stated their intent to destroy Israel. They have made their views on us clear. And I dont believe it would stop with us. I believe, based on the statements coming from Tehran, that they would use the weapons they create on anyone that didnt agree with them.
And has been demonstrated time and again, lgm, these people are not ones that listen well, or respond well, to negotiations.
lgm: You are an idiot! We were able to deter the Soviets from using their nukes BECAUSE, like us they DID NOT want to die! In this case we are dealing with a religion that CELEBRATES DEATH! They DO NOT care if they die! You get virgins in heaven if you die for allah!!!
Lets see how well kennedy’s first “negotiations” went with the USSR. Within a year after that little chat the berlin wall construction increased. Within 2 years there were nukes arriving in Cuba. In fact the repercussions from Kennedy’s little chat were only stopped when Kennedy loaded up for bear and threatened all out nuclear war. And that is the model Obama wants to follow.
calipygian, That explains all the nuclear exchanges during the cold war, oh wait…
Wrong, sir. McCain’s statement (”more dangerous”) is an opinion, open to discussion/debate. The Obamboozler’s numerous errors (”57 states”) are that – black/white, right/wrong…y’know…one of those absolutes moral relativists somehow have cognitive dissonance perceiving.
But please add to that Obi’s credibility-destroying Sunday-Obama-Iran-is-tiny-not-a-problem coupled with Monday-Obama-Iran-is-a-grave-threat.
How many sides of his mouth does The Obamboozler have to talk out of?! (pardon the dangling preposition!)
Is Obama willing to talk to a person who
-hangs gays for being gay?
-excutes girls for the crime of zina?
-jails women for not dressing correctly?
-Openly supports the genocide of an entire people?
And that is just to start with.
Let me wrap some duct tape around my head first, Dub.
Chamberlands discussions with Hitler worked out just great as well.
Think like a Liberal? I can’t. I don’t have drain bamage.
How long before Israel takes out the Iranian nuke facilities? US will not do it. Iran knows this and knows what they and some of their allies will do when this happens.
Will it happen before the US elections or after and if its before, how does that influence the elections? wink wink
This single issue may determine life in the US of A as we currently know it. We better start lots of drilling and building refineries right now and like our lives depend on it……because it does! (We know this will NOT happen because of LIBERALS!)
Muslims are and have been gearing up for the ultimate showdown. They are SERIOUS about bringing down the GREAT SATAN. Somebody please tell me how we are going to deal with this? Brack, Hildabeast, um….ahem….JSM? Anybody?
simple, they get the bomb. once they have it, they lead a muslim confederacy, plus russia, against Israel, in order to usher in their mahdi, their savior.
The US will do nothing..how could they lose?? but they’re in for a very ugly surprise….
oh yeah Iran will use the bomb against us, probably in an explosion 200 miles or so above the US. resulting in an electromagnetic pulse that will take out our civilian electronics infrastructure.
no power, no water, cars won’t run…we’ll be sent back to the late 19th century…many will die. and our savior, obama, will do nothing in response, because we can’t be sure of who is responsible.
we will submit.
I’m sorry see-dub. I can’t think like a Liberal, I don’t smoke weed.
But meanwhile, over at LGMs basement
This alone should remind everyone that this is more than a struggle between two nations with opposing views. This is serious theological warfare that Ahmedenajahd is trying to bring forth. Now when people thought Bush was trying to bring forth the end times prophecy and bring Christ back… well, we just can’t have that now???
Some of us were around during the Cuban missile crisis. One of the combatants blinked on the eve of all out war. Was it the U.S. or the Soviets?
Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?
The answer is the Soviets blinked and Khrushchev took the fall:
Think like a liberal?
I just had dental surgery and would rather repeat that experience!!
Unfortunately some have to learn the hard way. Even more unfortunately, in the case of many libs, they don’t learn at all. Ever.
Sorry, add me to the chorus of can’t think like a liberal. I know what you mean about dental surgery Expat, I agree with you on that.
Ahmadinnerjacket is NOT going to talk to Obama simply because he lets his wife tell him what to do ! Women do not wipe their feet on a man like Mama Obama seems to. He will get NO respect. Neville Chamberlin lives…………..
I’m trying to find data to support this, but…i was under the impression that the EMP you are describing, to have that sort of effect would require incredibly large yields to make that happen. I want to guess at least 10 or higher, but it could be higher.
I guess the next question would be, how large of a bomb are they making, to determine the damage it would cause.
#15:
You mean like, NOT starting one? Thisclose only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.
I want to guess at least 10 megatons or higher, but it could be higher.
sorry, forgot that part.
#15 again:
I ask this in complete seriousness, because I’ve never seen the murals you’re talking about: were the charicatures injecting themselves due to a retaliatory chemical strike, or an unprovoked chemical strike? It’s no secret that the Soviet propaganda machine worked hard to convince people that the US was just itching to annihilate the Soviets…
If Obama is elected then Israel will be forced to act.
abstractmind,
The EMP effects of a nuclear device is dependent on yield based on the gamma radiation “cone” the device covers.
At 200 miles above the Earth, it would have to have a fairly hefty yield.
But it is not necessary to go 200 miles up to get an EMP effect. EMP also occurs in a ground blast.
It is basically a line of sight effect, so even a device set off say, 10 miles up will knock out electronic devices within a certain radius, that radius based on the yield of the device relative to it’s altitude.
It is possible for say a 10 kiloton device detonated at 50,000 feet or 60,000 feet to have an EMP zone of a few hundred miles; the EMP effects decreasing the further out you go from the center of the blast.
While a 50 megaton device detonated at an altitude of 200 miles over the middle of the US would fry communications and electrical grids through most of the continental US, a smaller device detonated at a lower altitude could produce significant regional damage.
you might find this interesting…
Depending primarily on the burst height and to a lesser extent on yield, a high altitude burst can bathe a continental size region in EMP. Such a detonation causes particular concern because of the sensitivity of modern electronics to strong electromagnetic fields. A knowledgeable adversary could attempt to exploit such a perceived weakness, thereby severely degrading the U.S. technological advantage, and he could do so in a way that would not likely provoke an immediate nuclear retaliation
A less well known effect of high altitude bursts, but also one with potentially devastating consequences, is the artificial “pumping” of the Van Allen belt with large numbers of electrons. The bomb-induced electrons will remain trapped in these belts for periods exceeding one year. All unhardened satellites traversing these belts in low earth orbit could demise in a matter of days to weeks following even one high altitude burst.
http://www.fas.org/spp/starwars/congress/1997_h/h970716u.htm
from the same site…
Starfish Prime, a 1.4 megaton device, was detonated at an altitude of 400 kilometers over Johnston Island. Failures of electronic systems resulted in Hawaii, 1,300 kilometers away from the detonation.
To the guys supporting the emp theory.
Why go to all that trouble when it is much easier to ship it in a cargo container and have a suicide bomber push a button?
sonofdy
A ground detonation would certainly cause extensive damage, but it would be highly localized when compared to the mayhem that would result from electrical devices and grids being rendered inoperable.
The more concealable devices (in the 10 kiloton range) would primarily effect an area through heat and blast. Radiation would be of great concern, but again it would be relatively localized and would be very dependent on the prevailing winds, the topography of the area and atmospheric factors like cloud cover and humidity.
An EMP weapon would be devastating to a far wider area, particularly areas dependent on electricity. Our “vertical” cities are particularly prone to the impact of EMP.
Iran has surprised intelligence analysts by describing the mid-flight detonations of missiles fired from ships on the Caspian Sea as “successful” tests.
…..
A terrorist organization might have trouble putting a nuclear warhead “on target” with a Scud, but it would be much easier to simply launch and detonate in the atmosphere. No need for the risk and difficulty of trying to smuggle a nuclear weapon over the border or hit a particular city. Just launch a cheap missile from a freighter in international waters — al Qaeda is believed to own about 80 such vessels — and make sure to get it a few miles in the air.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A57774-2005Apr15.html
maybe they think its easier…its hard for me to fathom that sort of evil…
Firstly, we should focus on the fact that our national security wouldn’t always be threatened by tin-pot dictators if we actually secured this country. Open borders, lax inspection on imports/immigrants and an inept DHS, has lead to each American citizen hysterically fearing any bogeyman that the government or media throws at us.
Secondly, we have gone completely nuts with ‘Policing the World’. Israel would wipe out Iran in a couple of days, why should we be the ones expending resources on ineptly dealing with them. If Israel feels threatened, they can deal with it – remember, since Israel was formed, they have a much better war record than we do. Also don’t forget the Sunni countries that feel threatened by Iran – we have been giving them billions of dollars in weapons for a long time now – they have the ability to defend themselves as well.
Lastly, Ahminajad is simply a figurehead, he makes no policy decisions and his rhetoric is empty. The Mullahs run Iran – as they have since the revolution. They people of Iran are the most Pro-America population in the Middle East. This is not a country full of extremist suicide bombers, bent of fulfilling some religious prophecy, it’s a country with shrewd leaders opposed to an educated citizenry. This leads to a situation ripe for revolt, most Iranians hate Ahminajad and the Mullahs, and the strict religious law put in place. The country’s economy is very weak with rampant inflation and a high cost of commodities.
The point is, this is not our problem. If we don’t like what Iran is doing, then we simply stop importing their goods – mainly oil. Talk about a catalyst for revolt over there, and working for energy independence over here.
Thanks for the EMP info. I wasnt sure of the mass effect, and didnt have time to research it or comment intelligently on the subject.
As far as the actual EMP, the facts presented are correct, as far as the effect of the pulse itself. Would be devestating to civilian and military electronics alike.
I’m still surprised this tactic isnt employed against our enemies more frequently before we move in on a target. would be incredibly effect, methinks.
I am old enough to remember vividly the cost of appeasement – the price was paid by my parents generation.
MADD – the US vs USSR was a different case – even the wingnuts in Moscow didn’t want to die so it worked. The jihadists could care less – they think they are going to get served in paradise.
We need to assist them in their trip plans.
Perhaps another reason the USSR did not wish to start a nuclear war was because their weapons had an astonishingly high failure rate. This was primarily due to poor workmanship and substandard quality of materials.
I wish I had links to this information…I’ve read reports and seen programs where inspectors who supervised the dismantling of old Soviet warheads have stated, with a high level of confidence, that a majority of these weapons would’ve never detonated if launched.
spot on #48!
I think without the word “ninnies” it will happen. When Barack takes over it will be a sign of relief, because for once they have someone to negotiate terms with instead of holding a gun to their head, while the Mullahs hold a gun to the other side of their head. Never corner a rabid dog.
We should be looking at the nuclear bomb less as a weapon, and more as an international bargaining chip. Look at North Korea, they have tested a nuke, tested ICBM’s, have a lunatic dictator who doesn’t care about killing his own people, and have a standing military of over 1 million. Compare this to Iran, very small standing military, no ICBM’s, pro-America population, and a strict theocracy. We conduct negotiations, provide aid and technology and unequivocally state we will not attack one, and threaten to bomb the other. They are both on the infamous ‘Axis of Evil’ list. The difference here? One already has the bomb, and one doesn’t.
The bomb is the holy grail for these dictatorships, it’s pretty obvious why they sacrifice so much to get the bomb – because the payoff is so sweet.
If Iran can just get a nuclear weapon, it can look forward to all types of rewards from the international community. Obama can talk with them till he’s blue in the face, but it won’t matter. They want their bargaining chip.
Ha! Should liberal democracies survive this century.
Hmmm… where to start?
Whomever mentioned that BDS will reign supreme: spot on. While real adults discuss the realities of hate, the emotional children of this country try to vote a hate-monger in – and crown him Messiah.
How a man with limited intellect, zero foreign policy experience, and deep seated (but well fed) issues (hate?)with white America is going to “negotiate us out of this” is beyond me.
OTOH, a muchroom cloud over NYC, the Cheasapeake, Boston, or just about any other port city most decidedly is not…
EMP? Much too challenging for a neophyte nuclear power like Iran, at least for another 5 or 10 years. By the time they get the delivery vehicle and payload, they will have to face the reality of the US having a pretty functional ABM capability. ABM’s are particularly good at foiling an EMP attack.
Don’t be surprised to see USN cruisers doing a lot more “port’o'call” visits on both coasts in the coming years. They’ll basically be providing an ABM shield.
And 1.5MT? Not Iran, and not Al Qaeda. Most basic fission weapons don’t even get to 50kT. To get much past that the technologies are pretty fancy. For megaton ranges, you’re pretty much talking about a thermonuclear device. I’m not thinking that the gang in Iran are even close to that.
But, let’s face it, a small fission device isn’t that hard to make if you have the fissile matarial… and even a 10kT device can ruin your whole week.
A ship-canister bomb is a very, very real threat, and it’s extremely possible that an Obama presidency will allow one. Once Iran is allowed to proliferate more than it is now, all bets are off.
And if basic fission weapons aren’t that tough to make, imagine the threat of a dirty bomb. Given the prevailing winds, I’m thinking a West Coast attack would be both simple and effective.
I shudder to think what someone as messed up as Obama is going to do in the face of that threat. Sorry, but “no sudden movements” ain’t gonna cut it.
I was doing some extra reading on this earlier.
While they may not have the ability to launch something from Iran to here (obvious anyway), they do have ships they could load missiles and sail into international waters off the coast and fire from there. And even with low yield weapons, those would still cause sufficient damage.
I’m pretty OK with the USN tracking any ship that’s not obviously commercial in nature. It’s pretty hard to disguise a missile like you’re thinking of.
OTOH, to simply place a weapon in a container that is loaded on a regular’ol container ship and shipped to a US harbor? That’s much more feasible. And the USN wouldn’t really have reason to suspect, without intelligence.
And *that’s* what scares me.
Bill Clinton is a man with many demons, as we know, and one of those demons had him pathological about the CIA. He gutted it like a fish during his 8 years.
I daresay that Obama’s many demons make Clinton look like a choirboy. What do any of us expect him to do to the CIA when he’s elected?
That’s the danger. While he’s busy talking to terrorists and allowing them to enrich uranium, what little intelligence we gather dries up.
Should be an interesting 4 years…
… within CONUS.
there, fixed it. [wink]
I personally think that the CONUS phase of their Noke-Ops will incl. small smuggled (via the southern border…) devices detonated in private single/dual engine aircraft.
Piper Cub [dated reference] & others come to mind…
- martin.musculus
errr
Noke-Ops = Nuke-Ops
- musculus
you’re correct, and i agree. I think the USN is incredibly vigiliant. I’m not saying that we probably wouldnt catch them. I’m just showing the possibility exists, nothing more. It would be hard to hide, hard to actually get into the air, but…we’ve found our adversary to be rather adept at trying these types of things. i am just saying, dont count them out on that sort of thing.