Cabinet minister says Israel will “attack Iran” over nuke program
Well, it’s the Transportation Minister, and he’s campaigning to take over Olmert’s job, so take a grain of salt with this. But just a grain.
According to the newspaper report, Mofaz — a former chief of staff and defense minister — has concluded that international sanctions haven’t curbed Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.
“If Iran continues its nuclear arms program — we will attack it,” the newspaper quoted Mofaz as saying. “The sanctions aren’t effective. There will be no choice but to attack Iran to halt the Iranian nuclear program.”
There is a precedent for Israeli military action: In 1981, Israeli planes destroyed an unfinished Iraqi reactor.
There’s actually a lot more recent precedent than that, of course. Wonder why the AP reporter left that out?
I’ve got to imagine this will resonate well in Israel. Right now they must realize that given his latest Kerryesque three-sixty half gainer triple-lindy flipflop about Israel and Palestine, Obama will be at best a fair-weather ally if he is elected, and probably (given his growing portfolio of endorsements from anti-Israel thugs like George Galloway) not even that.
And McCain–who knows?
As Captain Ed notes,
Their window of opportunity may be closing. If Obama wins the election, Israel would have two months to conduct an attack that would hopefully devastate Iranian nuclear facilities.
This would be a much trickier attempt than the Iraq or Syria missions, of course. In 1981 the bombing run on Saddam’s Osirak reactor was an amazing feat of logisitics and planning, stretching the range and capabilities of Israel’s new F-16s. Iran’s even farther, and its nuclear program is spread around the country so much that it would be a matter of weeks instead of days to really cripple its nuclear capacity.
Well, time’s a wastin’.
_________________
{Post by See-Dubya}
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I’d be surprised if Mr. Limpit did anything. He would need our help anyway and you know what Congress would say to that.
yup, to quote John Wayne in “The Cowboys”
“Burnin Daylight!”
Just send Jimma I’m sure he could work out a deal with the Iranians.
Well, time’s a wastin’.
I couldn’t agree more.
If they even try such a thing, Ima-nut-job will erase Israel from off the map – the map hanging on the wall of his underground bunker that is.
I’m all for taking the Iranian nuclear program out. Since nobody in our government has the stones to do it why not Israel.
How about some guy called “Boomer”? Sounds to me like he could get the job done!
Add in the variables that Iran (the leadership) wants Israel to throw the first punch so they can play the victim card to liberals around the world who will buy into their cover-story. Plus add in that Iran has been investing in air defense and sea defense in large numbers and you not only have a logistical nightmare of starting a war that would take at least a week by aerial bombing if they didn’t lose a single plane to ground forces.
But if anyone has the resolve and ability to do it there are few if any better than a determined Israel to pull it off.
Iran (the leadership) may be suicidal and wants to destroy Israel and the United States, but their plan thus far is nothing short of genius. They have the whole liberal world fooled that they are making mass amounts of enriched uranium for energy uses while building the very weapons that would provoke Israel to stop them. The only question I have is, is it too late? Do they already have a bomb secretly and are just waiting for Israel to bomb their nuke sites so they can claim they are justified in nuking Tel Aviv and the rest of Israel off the map?
If there’s anything that stands out in my mind from Israel’s history, it’s they are not to be messed with. Besides the examples already given, I would point to the Six Day War as an example of what they are capable of when pushed to defend themselves. The Iranians are truly insane to threaten such a country.
I wish all of you folks who want a war with Iran would sign up for military service instead of talking big and bad on a blog
I’m not sure it would be conducive to our efforts in Iraq at this time. Now that the world knows that Isreal has about 120 nukes (thanks to Jimma) the Iranians have to know that they can turn them into a fine piece of crystal, I think it is in our interest for Isreal to do the dirty work, especially since they are the one being threatened by Amapieceosh!t. I have no doubt that there are U.S. and Israeli opperatives in Iran already and they are working on the military solution as we speak.
I was a mission planner for the tanker support for the F-117s in Operation Just Cause and would love to plan this one considering I happen to be typing this from an Air Force Base that has plenty of F-15E Strike Eagles that could easily accomplish this mission. I wouldn’t mind another crack at aerial refueling them enroute to their target either. Send me in Coach I’m ready to play!
And let’s not forget that Hezbollah would immediately attack from Lebanon, and the Palis would launch a rocket attack from Gaza . . .oh wait, they’re already doing that.
The question is what would the Sowdis and the Jordanians do? Since they aren’t interested in having the Shiites be the regional power, but they want Israel destroyed, what a dilemma.
Has this guy thought about maybe something a little less drastic? Like maybe having the U.N. issue a strongly worded warning to Iran to cease it’s nuke program. That usually works. /sarc
I’ve already done my time, have you?
If your not going to contribute anything but bs please do this
Ditto.
Any other wise commentary you wish to opine about your vast knowledge of Iranian threats to Israel and the United States while making vast amounts of enriched uranium?
I served during VN, my oldest son served as a vehicle mechanic during the initial invasion of Iraq and my younger son is on his second enlistment as a crew chief of 4 EA6B prowler aircraft who’s planes were involved in the first battle for Fallujah. I have a neiece that served in the early part of the war (something to do with intelligence), a nephew in law that fought in the first battle for Fallujah and lost a number of his fellow Marines when their chopper went down in Iraq and is currently an instructor for Marine snipers, I have another nephew that is currently serving as an air combat controller in an AWACS, and another nephew that currently serves as a crew chief of a C-5.
And we all feel the same about Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and the threat that is islam.
Just doing the job Americans won’t do. If they do it now, at least they’ll have some support from Bush. Probably can’t count on Obama for anything.
I’ve been performing my service for 20 years so far so I believe I have the right to advocate taking out a nuclear weapon wielding (eventually) loose-cannon before he can strike. And if you think those warheads will not find their way into the US– You sir, or madam, are a damn fool.
Just go back to your internet and leave it to us.
God speed Israel!
Look at this, LGM in Drag.
Several others have echoed this already, but…until you know the backgrounds of some of us here, i would point out those kind of comments dont get you anywhere.
without going into detail, i’ve served my country. Where were you, ilove?
Anyway…
About the topic.
I believe that “pre-emptive self defense” in certain cases is, in fact justified. I would think that Iran’s continued push for nuclear technology, coupled with their intense hatred of the West, and the repeated statements of destroying Israel and the “Great Satan”, are largely too much to ignore.
If someone said repeatedly that they were going to come to your home and kill you, would you wait until they were in your home to deal with them, or would you try to safeguard yourself beforehand by having the person arrested, jailed, file restraining orders, and so on(different scenario and actions, but the principle i believe is the same)?
So then, when can we expect you to take action and sign up for human shield duty in Iran?
Haven’t you noticed that in the past years, Israel has become almost as much a bunch of wussess as the USA has become.
There will be no attack by Israel on Iran or on anyone else. They will cede more of their territory though.
I wish all of you folks who want a war with Iran would sign up for military service instead of talking big and bad on a blog
ILove, lots of vets here, you just let your bulldog mouth overload your poodle as*
FYI, 2 PH’s & Bronze Star in Vietnam,unlike Lurch Kerry I did not come home & lie about the vets.
You have to think that some of his generals are looking at Ahmadinejad & thinking Hummmmmmm…
I am ready for Israel to do it. They won’t get support after November. Just hope they bomb more than the reactor and take out as many militants as possible.
How much do you want to bet that behind closed doors they said the same thing about Saddam and Iraq? I have to wonder if we did not attack, what Israel would have done.
Been in 14 years active and reserve. Whats your address so I can send the recrutiers over to your place to sign you up. I will even wait untill the messiah saint obama
cuts and runsi mean tactical redeploys the us army from Iraq.very funny xblade
For those who think Israel can’t do this, i would remind you of a little operation in uganda…
What a load of BS! Keep spinning the same old right wing lie that Obama doesn’t support Israel. Please offer some factual proof of this!
The difference between Hawks and Doves is that Doves believe it’s a choice between fighting or not fighting. Hawks believe it’s a choice between fighting now and fighting later.*
Personally I think the Hawks are right. A war with Iran is unavoidable, arguably it’s underway right now. If we must fight them best to do it before they have nukes.
*this assumes honesty and goodwill on both sides, admittedly not usually a given in the real world.
Are you now saying obama will support a military strike on iran? From what I have seen he is dead set against it. (except when speaking in front of israel groups of course)
unless we can start drilling here quickly, you are correct.
I hope Israel knows where all the Iranian military installations are, not just the nuclear plant(s)…
I think a lot of Israel’s support in the U.S. comes from religious exhortations in the Bible to support “God’s chosen people”. It seems to me to be the unacknowledged basis for a lot of pro-Israeli-pre-emptive-strike comments.
Israel is a sovereign nation and will act in it’s own best interests. These interests will not necessarily coincide with the strategic interests of the U.S. in the region. The sabre-rattling by a candidate for high office in Israel is probably for domestic consumption but it does add to the tension in an already volatile part of the world.
Would a pre-emptive strike by Israel draw us into an escalated and intensified war in the middle east?
I believe that’s a very strong possibility.
So we need to be VERY sure that war with Iran is a good idea. I’m inclined to be skeptical of that position.
Without a doubt, but I feel like we are already there anyway, its just all covert right now.
I’m in my 19th year of service in the Air Force. What have you done to serve your country?
1) Thank you for your service, sincerely.
2) I think it’s a mistake for you to dignify his ad hominem “chickenhawk” argument with a response. It suggests that he’s made some valid point.
But you know what? For the sake of argument let’s stipulate that yes, the only people with standing to have an opinion on this matter are those in the military or veterans of it. Who here thinks that opinion is going to come down on the side of inaction or negotiation?
alaskangrizzly said
” Plus add in that Iran has been investing in air defense and sea defense in large numbers and you not only have a logistical nightmare of starting a war that would take at least a week by aerial bombing if they didn’t lose a single plane to ground forces.
”
buying the same equipment as the Syrians, ask them about how well it worked when Israel took out the nukeplant & the Syrians didn’t know anything about the attck until the plant was exploding
How about this article(and at the top, you can see the related articles that also support this idea)?
Need more? Not enough that he’s a bit shaky on this?
Here.
Here.
How about antiwar.com’s writeup? Does this work? A quote:
Yes, i’ve read the “Obama does in fact support Israel” articles too, so as to get the complete picture. In the end, I believe he would be more of a fairweather friend(as it was stated earlier), that he believes Israel to be an “open sore” as in one of the articles, and that he’s simply going to capitulate to places like Iran so that he can try to “make everyone play nice”.
The chickenhawk argument is the weakest and most cowardly of the liberal arguments because it assumes only veterans can say something on the topic and allows the liberal to get away with not having to do the very thing they demand the “chickenhawk” do. I see it as a sign of a weak argument. But we should always offer to hook up the liberal with a recrutier so that liberal can actualy serve.
With a nod and my everlasting gratitude to all the former, current and future servicemen and women that post here, since when did you have to be in the military to comment on military or current events issues?
Go Israel, we’ve got your back (until 1/20/09 anyway)!
The biggest issue with a war with iran is thier plan to sink oil tankers in the striaghts of homuz (sp?) anyway 3 or 4 super tankers down there would force oil up to 200 a barrel in a second.
How about from todays comment where Obama renig’d on his support for a undivided Jerusalem!
I’m a secular athiest. I often take heat on this board for my belief that no god exists.
And I support Israel.
To me the idea that we should support the lone liberal democracy in a region full of theocratic dictators is a no-brainer.
Nothing but crickets
Chirp, Chirp, Chirp, Chirp
Troll
Ilovemycountry seems to have moved to canada.
Your concern is valid. Alot of military folks opt for action. But as i’ve stated before, sitting down and talking to your enemies is still decent policy. Force shouldnt be the first resort.
However.
Our enemies don’t see things that way. Force and violence is their first and only acceptable response. When we are forced to respond to these threats and flex our military muscle, many times our hands are tied by politicians who just want everyone to get along. They dont realize that there are time when we face an adversary that doesn’t respond to anything *except* overwhelming force.
And its those people who have no spine, who dont want to fight, or refuse to acknowledge that there is a need to do so, that lessens us all in those times.
Once upon a time, the US could secretly send the CIA into Iran to get the job done. Those days appear to be over – we can’t even get Osama bin Laden!
“And I think that it is smart for us to — to work through a system in which everybody has access to the extraordinary religious sites in Old Jerusalem but that Israel has a legitimate claim on that city.”
Still sounds like he’s on Israel’s side to me.
TOS you mean besides his advisors working wth Hamas, his waffling once he left AIPAC, FARC documents, his willingness to negotiate unconditionally with those who want us and Israel gone, and Dhimmy Carter-like policies?
Oh, no reason at all to believe he’d abandon Israel
TOS: this morning he said that the fate of that city is something to be decided by the patries involved, which I agree with. But isreal isn’t going to budge on that one.
Israel has to and will act. There has obviously been nothing subtle about Iran’s intentions regarding Isarel. The only question is: will Iran commit suicide by using a nuke against Israel? But Israel will not let them get to that point. I support them 100%.
I still say drill here, dig up the shale oil, eventualy convert over to something else and then tell the entire middle east less israel to go #%%^# itself.
For my 2 cents worth on this subject, I am a retired Air Force Senior Master Sergeant with 25 years of service and coming up on my 7th year of service as a simple servant working for the Department of the Air Force currently fighting the battle of the budget trying to more with less funding.
During my time on active duty I was a SAC Combat Crewmember as a mission qualified Boom Operator in the KC-135A, KC-135A/RT (refuelable tanker), KC-135Q (refueled SR-71 in-flight for over 3 years), and hand picked to fly the KC-10A tankers. In this capacity I pulled SAC Alert, upgraded to instructor, and worked as a mission planner. I have flown combat and reconnaissance support missions all over the globe under some of the most adverse conditions imaginable. I have run away from three burning aircraft and saved 2 F-4s and one SR-71 during my time as an aviator and buried too many friends that were not as fortunate as I was.
After being medically disqualified for flight duty I was dragged kicking and screaming to sit behind a desk to include a by-name request to serve as a U.S. Nation Escort for the INF and START Treaties with the nations of the former Soviet Union conducting inspections throughout the Western half of the United States. Like most of my fellow veterans and active duty brothers and sisters that comment regularly on this site I have bet on the future of this country with my life and will gladly do it again if called back to active duty, which I am still eligible for the next 2 ½ years. What are your qualifications?
boomer, apprantly his qualifications include a fast car to canada, and vast consumption of weed.
I have to concede the point that we may already be in a covert war against Iran. And I do agree with the logic that if war with Iran is inevitable, it would be much better tactically to strike at them before they have nuclear capability.
But do we have the “blood and treasure” to expend on an expanded war front?
Wouldn’t an escalation of our military presence on a three front war require a re-instution of the draft to meet manpower requirements?
And wouldn’t punitive tax rates have to be imposed in order to support it logistically?
Oh..and as an aside, I remember first seeing the idea of military service being a requirement to participate in government in the Robert Heinlein novel “Starship Troopers”.
I concur with both sentiments. As far as ILoveMyCountry, President Roosevelt declared war on two separate fronts without ever having served. Are you suggesting that the disabled should not a voice because of their lack of service? How about President Clinton?
.
You may have misunderstood me. It’s not a “concern” of mine (I’m a vet myself and think an invasion is 25 years overdue). I was merely pointing out that in using the chickenhawk argument the doves not only commit a logical fallacy, they invalidate their own position.
Fair enough.
Sounds like we’re on the same page.
A draft for the iran war? not really. But without a vast increase in the size of the military you would probably have to call up the entire reserves for the duration. As for paying for it, we should have been funding this war differently since 9/12/2001. We should have also tripled the armed forces that same day.
Ahh, my mistake then. I thought that was the case, but i wasnt sure, and opted to write about it in different light.
Fair enough, good post
He’ll find room under the bus for them…i’m sure!
I don’t think anyone is saying you have to serve to comment on military issues. It’s just that ilovemycountry challenged everyone in the discussion to join up prior to expressing an opinion. We were just letting him/her know that we’ve “been there, done that”.
I wonder if Israel will use their nukes during the attack. You know the nukes that they don’t admit to having, but every well read person in the world knows they have.
If McCain was smart, he’d talk them into invading prior to the election. This would put Obama in a really difficult position in trying to keep his dove base while also trying to show just how much he supports Israel. Things could get pretty interesting and messy if Israel and Iran declare war on each other while we’re still at war with Iraq and Afghanistan. Al Queda could do some real damage during all of the chaos. Obama and McCain have a lot of guts to try to enter the WhiteHouse at a time like this.
#59 Though I agree with you. This will not be a feet on ground assault it will be completely done by air and sea.
On June 6th, 2008 at 2:56 pm, sonofdy said:
A draft for the iran war? not really. But without a vast increase in the size of the military you would probably have to call up the entire reserves for the duration. As for paying for it, we should have been funding this war differently since 9/12/2001. We should have also tripled the armed forces that same day.
I’m not sure I understand….
In an all-volunteer military how would you accomplish a vast increase in manpower or triple the size of our armed forces without a draft?
And as far as the increased financial burden goes, our government has chosen to fight this war with deficit financing. Is there an alternative to this fiscal policy? Other than punative taxation, that is?
Don’t need nukes. But they need to take out the mullah’s why there at it!
I’m not sure I understand….
In an all-volunteer military how would you accomplish a vast increase in manpower or triple the size of our armed forces without a draft?
—————-
On 9/12/2001 you could have done this with ease
And as far as the increased financial burden goes, our government has chosen to fight this war with deficit financing. Is there an alternative to this fiscal policy? Other than punative taxation, that is?
—————
Yes a war tax but also bonds etc. One of my harshest condemations of bush is his mishandling of the funding of this war and the fact he did not increase the size of the military enough.
#67
It will not remain an air war for long. In my opinion.
If Israel decides to attack (I don’t like that word because, in one sense, Iran is, via its actions and threats already attacking Israel…nevertheless) that is in their discretion, and I won’t second-guess them.
However, I wish they would stop saying it. They don’t have to say anything and, by making these threats they just provide their enemies with more ammunition.
In my view they should just regard Iran as having been put “on notice”. Then, if they need to do something, just do it.
#71 I hope you’re wrong.
#73
Me too, but I see this turning into a regional war very soon after the first bomb drops with Iran using every weapon it has. I see a possiable invasion of iraq and afganistan.
MJ, sometimes you and i see eye to eye, and other times not…but you do pose an interesting scenario.
Lets put this into perspective.
Israel squares off with Iran, and (for the sake of example) actually attacks them. The conflagaration would be massive, to say the least. I seriously don’t think Israel would use a nuclear weapon, for a few reasons:
1. If they do, it would prompt their enemies to acquire and utilize them directly, and claim justification.
2. They would, geographically, be dropping it in their own backyard.
3. The international community backlash directed to Israel would be one they would not be able to ignore.
I believe it would also prompt an immediate retalitory strike from pretty much every terrorist within 5000 miles. It would be a rally cry for everyone willing to go to Lebanon, Syria, or Iran and go on the offensive.
Tactically and logistically, alot of possibilities. We could go on about that all day (and honestly, i love that kind of discussion!). I’ll leave it at that though…but i think you’re thinking in the right direction, idea wise.
#74 I agree but, this crap with Israel has gone on long enough 4 wars started by arabs in which Israel won. Maybe it’s time for a regional conflict and be done with it. It is very reminiscent of Hitler’s land grab.
Speaking as a former Air Force weapon system officer on F-4E Phantom fighters, my somewhat informed opinion is that there are a few problems with the Israelis carrying out this mission.
The first problem is targeting. The Iranians aren’t as dumb as the Iraqis, who put all their atom bomb eggs in one reactor that could be taken out in one air strike. The Iranians have dispersed their atom bomb program. As I understand it, it is spread across hundreds of sites. How do you get reliable intelligence about the location of these sites, the nature of their construction, and their relative importance in the program? You would need some recent high-level defectors from the program to provide reliable targeting data.
The second problem is the massive size of the air campaign to strike these targets, once located. I’m reading three hundred sorties over three days. The Israeli Air Force has about four hundred fighters, but only a fraction of them can strike that far. They would need help to service all those targets from the USAF.
The third problem is access. The direct route from Israel to Iran flies over Iraq or Saudi Arabia. Of course, to fly over Iraq the Israelis would need US permission and cooperation. We control that air space. For lots of reasons, that’s unlikely to happen.
The Saudis are our allies, at least on paper though not in fact, which means that theoretically we should not turn a blind eye to Israelis flying strike packages over Saudi Arabia. Blatantly disrespecting the Saudis (not that there is anything wrong with that) to help the Israelis wage war against fellow Muslims would stir up the Muslim and Wahhabi pot.
However, it’s within the realm of possibility that the duplicitous Saudis could strike a secret deal to allow their hated Jewish enemies to strike their hated Shia enemies in Iran. The Saudi princes could pose as surprised and outraged at the incursion, however pleased with the outcome. They’re good at lying like that.
The fourth problem is the extreme range. It looks to me to be about 1000 miles, at least, as the crow flies from Israel to the centrifuge facility at Natanz, aka the Esfahan enrichment facility. Of course, the mission will be longer than this when you allow for an indirect route to targets deep inside Iran.
The F-15E Strike Eagle has a range of 2,400 miles (3,840 kilometers) ferry range with conformal fuel tanks and three external fuel tanks. However, that’s FERRY range, not carrying heavy bombs. I’m guessing that adding a couple 2000 pound laser-guided bombs would reduce the range of the F-15Es to less than distance to their targets. It seems obvious that these fighters would need to be air-refueled, optimally just outside the Iranian border. The range problem is worse with Israel’s 324 F-16s and 50 F-4Es.
Israel only has five tankers, B707 airframes roughly similar to the KC-135. If each tanker supported a flight of four fighters, that’s only twenty fighters Israel could project to Iran. Again, Israel would need US tanker support to fuel its strike force.
The bottom line is that Israel can not successfully take out the Iranian atom bomb program by itself, so the Transportation Minister’s threat is an idle one. Israel can only succeed with help from the US. However, if we must strike Iran, Israeli help is a political handicap in our foreign relations with the bigoted Middle Eastern and European states. If we must strike Iran, we must leave Israel out of it.
We have better weapons to strike Iran than Israel. Our Stealth aircraft such as the B-2 and F-22 can traverse Iranian airspace with little fear from the 1970s-era technology Iranian fields to defend itself. And who knows what wing of secret srike aircraft we have stashed out in the mountains of Nevada, ready to make its combat debut? Our B-1s, F-15Es, and F-16s would fly over the smoking remains of the Iranian defenses.
We are also better positioned to strike Iran, with air bases in the neighboring countries of Afghanistan and Iraq.
Even though I am an advocate of air power, the gains it makes are transient unless followed up by a ground campaign. Without a ground campaign, we’ve only temporarily set back the Iranian atom bomb.
I think we can stop Iranian aggression short of a war. Iran is economically fragile. Already, our financial measures have taken a toll on them. We can bring Iran to its knees without bloodshed by simply stopping it from shipping its oil and/or importing gasoline.
We can also lend support, carefully hidden, to Iran’s resistance. They could use money, training, communications equipment, et al to support their movement. Perhaps we can redirect the Iranian shaped charges we capture in Iraq back into the hands of the Iranian resistance. Let the mullahs fear the IEDs they export to harm the Great Satan.
Rather than a hard strategy of military action that would polarize Iranians against us, we might profit more by pursuing a soft strategy of support for the disaffected Iranians who want to topple the mullahs and restore ties with America.
An excellent post, and very well framed.
I would think, however, that if Israel was able to strike the reactor in Iraq in 1981, and if we were helping them, or if in your example SA was…i think that at least in that arena, they would have a better chance of success.
Good post abstract. Right now I think Israel is bluffing a little, and putting out feelers to see what type of support and response they’ll get from the international community if they strike. You’re probably right about why they wouldn’t go all out and use nukes.
Can they get away with tactical strikes and get out without a full scale invasion? If they invade, the intelligence better be airtight, unlike what we relied on going into Iraq, which turned out to be faulty in retrospect. I think they need the solid evidence. Some a-hole leader mouthing off about how you shouldn’t exist and calling the holocaust a lie, is infuriating, but doesn’t warrent military action. They have to have absolute, solid evidence of nuke making to get any worldwide support.
In most cases I don’t care if a country in nuclear armed(see North Korea), because most rational people understand mutual destruction.(The USSR NEVER would have nuked us, ever). I debate my fellow liberal friends that an Islamic Jihadists like the leader of Iran, do not care about mutual death and annihilation. It’s a whole different story. As a “liberal”, I can say that Iran in it’s current state can now way ever possess nukes. Israel just has to be careful and smart about how they handle this situation.
Isn’t I’mamadjacket in Italy for world food, or something like that. I bet he traveled by plane, and you know how those ground to air rockets get around.
BTW, Ilovemycountry, you better be standing at attention when you are talking to me, and don’t you eye F$#k the area!
Good, smart clear-headed post Tantor.
Thanks for the read.
YAHOO, Go Get em’ ! I hope the heat from the blast doesn’t burn my popcorn !
I’m totally not afraid of nor expecting Iran to lob nuke missiles at us when they can slip these warheads under the table to their terrorist buddies who’ll leave no fingerprints or return address. My long unanswered question is EXACTLY how would the U.S. respond if a nuke goes off in a U.S. city months or years after Iran has ginned up its fissionable stockpile. This has never been pinned down as far I know. Forget the “blow up Mecca” retaliation thing. That’s insane and suicidal for our international regard, sympathy and support; not even the Nazis in WWII commandeered the Vatican, so how do we respond to a “mystery” mushroom cloud? While Israel’s prempt Iran’s nuke teeth idea is understandable, Mofaz should learn that boasting like that is kind of counterproductive to their friends as well. He can learn a lesson from T.R. the Lion: “Walk Softly But Carry A Big Stick.” It works just as well without sounding recklessly belligerent.
James Greenidge
Queens NY
No such thing as a total mystery mushroom cloud. Sure, it would take some time to figure out the exact makeup of the uranium (and/or plutonium) used in the blast but that is as good as a fingerprint in seeing which country’s facilities made the bomb. The hard (if not impossible part) will be figuring out how it got from the facility it was made at into the hands of the people who used it on us.
For example:
Unless that country is Iran for example?
Anyhow, that topic is besides the point. Our southern border is so porous I could sneak an elephant across it with little trouble never mind a nuclear warhead that would take up very little space. Not to mention our northern border and ports being equally porous.
If Iran has any truth to their continuous threats to take down “the great Satan the US” they would have little trouble setting off a nuke in any major US city of their choosing. And with their global network of supporting guerrilla-style terrorist groups like Hezbollah how hard would it be for them to hand off a nuke to one of those groups and slip it across either border or into a port that has an extremely low scan rate on incoming materials?
Israel does not have to take out the whole program in one shot. Part of every war is political and an important part of that is ensuring your enemy knows you are not bluffing. A well executed mission taking down one facility that also provides absolute proof of a nuclear weapons program will accomplish much.
1. Iran can no longer peddle the lie that it wants nuclear material for energy.
2. It tells the Iranian people “We are prepared to go all the way on this one.” That is important given the vast array of concessions given by Israel over recent years. The gloves come off.
3. It also reminds them who the actual competent military power (native) is in the middle east.
4. Remember, the Iranian people were in the not so distant past very pro-West. This could be a wake-up call to take charge of their leadership or suffer the same fate as Iraq.
My 2 shekels.
Forgot to answer this part of your question on how do we respond. I’m not a general at the Pentagon, I was just lowly infantryman many moons ago. But if I had to give a simple guess to how such contingency plans are made I would guess they would retaliate with “extreme prejudice” to whichever country manufactured the bomb if it can be reasonably proven beyond a doubt that the country that produced it had motive to destroy one of our cities. So in the case of Iran who has continually threatened us and Israel with imminent destruction, if the bomb that went off in LA for a fictional example could be tied back to facilities that made it in Iran I would guess much of Iran would become a set of very shiny crystal bowls visible from space. But that’s just my guess.
Thanks MJ
I believe its completely possible they would use tactical, conventional weapon strikes to target Iranian facilities. But nukes would be a bit overboard (at this stage anyway).
Then again…if Israel really were faced with an attack that was immediate and certain…well, who knows. I guess it would depend on the level of the threat, which would have to be incredibly high for them to resort to nuclear weapons.
And the point you made about MAD is spot on. These jihad-waging morons could care less about MAD. to them, its just a faster way to paradise. As i’ve tried to tell lgm before, we arent dealing with conventional warfare here, where there are standing armies and people in uniforms running all over the place. This is a guerilla style combat scenario, where even people you think are your friends could very easily be your enemy, and are willing to slit your throat simply because they can.
As far as Iran having these types of weapons…its anyones guess as to what they have specifically right now. Do i believe that they have one right this second? no.
do i believe they want one in the worst possible way? Absolutely.
As pointed out elsewhere several times, Iraq had nuclear facilities in the early 80’s and Israel bombed the crap out of it. Tactically, I wouldn’t rule out the fact that if they (being iraq, but conceivably we could lump parts of the region into the example) were working on stuff like that 27 years ago…that something didnt come from it other than just a pile of rubble where their facility used to be standing. I find it hard to believe that no one else in the region didn’t attempt to (or sucessfully)steal or buy information about the creation of the components needed for nuclear weapons and reactors.
For my part, logistically, I would have to believe that because Iran has received aid from places such as North Korea, as well as Syria and so on…I simply cannot rule out the possibility they are working towards that end. Look at NK…they’ve told people before they wanted it for creating power stations and the like, and guess what they have now? Yeah.
I believe you’re also correct in the fact that Israel would really have to have rock solid evidence for attacking them, but i believe that 2 things work in their favor.
First is the very public admission that Iran is working on nuclear material. Whether its for power or weapons, they’ve made it clear they have the facilities and are working on *something*. It makes looking for the “if they have something at all” reasons less important, and makes wondering exactly what they have, and why, all the more important.
Secondly, and to couple along with the first, is the Israeli’s keen information gathering. They really do have some of the best intelligence gathering in the world, and I would think a bit higher of them than i would most other places. And with their daily survival at stake, as they are literally surrounded by enemies…I would put a little trust behind their observations.
One of the most salient points I have ever heard made on this issue.
I too do not see where or how Israel wait much longer before responding to the certain threat that is a nuclear armed Iran.
And, to be sure, should Israel attack Iran’s nuclear sites this very minute, I will support her in any I can and be grateful to her for doing what the world is apparently too cowardly to do for itself!
…and history is in the making here in Denver as Barack Obama steps to the podium to accept his party’s noninat…
…we interrupt our regularly scheduled programing to bring you this breaking news story, live from our Middle East correspondent…
Thanks for the very informative post Tantor. Posts like that are the primary reason I stop by this site from time to time. mj and abstract, I also enjoyed your exchange. Not much to add…the three of you covered it pretty well.
I think they should take out their one refinery and then block the tankers from entering the Gulf of Omen to deliver more. Iran’s economy would suffer a great deal. The people of Iran would be sure to turn on their leaders.
John Ansell, I agree. A few months ago when the supply of gas was kinked, Iranians started setting gas stations on fire. The Iranians are a cocked pistol.
SpeakEasy: “4. Remember, the Iranian people were in the not so distant past very pro-West. This could be a wake-up call to take charge of their leadership or suffer the same fate as Iraq.”
The Iranians were the only Muslims to demonstrate in support of the US after Sep 11. That’s significant. The Iranians also gave a surprisingly warm welcome to US Air Force crew who flew in disaster supplies after an earthquake there a few years ago. Iranians are willing to support America in private conversations in Tehran, as Mark Bowden found when he wrote about the Iranian hostage crisis in “Guests of the Ayatollah.”
We should not squander this good will and moral capital by directly attacking Iran. We should capitalize on it.
Taking out the Iranian nuclear facilities is long overdue. We can pay now or pay a much higher price later.
“I wish all of you folks who want a war with Iran would sign up for military service instead of talking big and bad on a blog”
I enlisted in the Air Force when I was 19; volunteered for combat rescue (Super Jolly Green Giants).
If they would let a 52 yo with asthma and 3 ruptured discs re-enlist I’d be there now.
To BOOMER AND ALL YOU OTHER SOLDIER BOYS, my undying thanks and gratitude. I spent a few years living in the Orient as a military spouse and I gotta tell you what thrill it still is for me to feel a part of something as incredible as the U S Military. THANKS for all you do.
The IDF can and will strike first and strike with full force. Have no doubts.
When years of worthless Diplomacy fails, the Threat remains, you are surrounded by Enemies, your Allies are thousands of miles away and the clock is ticking.
The IDF will do the job that Americans are too PC to do.
God Speed and Good Hunting to the IDF!
Here is reality. When you are standing alone and threatened, find the largest bully and hit him with your best punch. Let the World watch with gaping mouths and eyes huge.
The Generations of the Survivors of the Halocaust owe the World not a damn thing. That is a tough Neighborhood. The UN can watch and learn a lesson.
BTW, between my now deceased Father and myself, We fought Four Wars, gave over 60 years of Service in Boots and not a one of Us soiled our hands with Public Office.
The fine line that a dumbed up America does not see is Service in Uniform and Public Service (Feeding at the Public Trough without Risk to Life and Limb) is not equal.
Our first President served reluctantly as President but was a Soldier first.
Nuff said.
WEll, hopefully the Israelis have a few subs with cruise missiles…