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Sanctuary v. enforcement in neighboring counties: a natural experiment.

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By See-Dubya  •  July 27, 2008 10:02 AM

Here’s what the social-science types might call a “natural experiment”: have one county take a hard line on illegal immigration. Have the adjacent county adopt a sanctuary policy. What happens to crime rates as a result?

First, let’s see what happens in sanctuary land (under the auspices of aspiring congressman Gerry Connolly):

Overall crime in Fairfax County increased by nearly 22 percent for the first quarter 2008 compared to first quarter figures from last year.

Overall, property crimes, including burglary, larceny and car theft increased 24 percent, echoing “what appears to be happening in other localities in the region,” police said.

Well, not quite everywhere in the region: here’s a report from Fairfax County’s pro-enforcement neighbor, Prince William County:

Recently, Prince William County reported a 19.3 percent decline in crime, with chairman of the Board of County Supervisors Corey Stewart attributing the downturn to the hard line the county has taken toward illegal immigrants.

So, pretty much what common sense tells you would happen, then.

While I’m still on the subject, do check out this AP Report of a Congressional hearing about the Postville raids. The Congressional Hispanic Caucus is angry that ICE did its job in Postville, and the sob-story coverage is utterly infuriating:

Postville Mayor Robert Penrod told the congressmen to take the message back to Washington that immigration raids do not work.

“This raid did nothing for this community,” he said. “It downgraded us substantially. It caused people to suffer, and it caused our reputation to suffer clear across the country.”

Sires, the New Jersey congressman, said he was convinced.

“I don’t see this type of thing working someplace else,” he said. “We don’t want it to ever happen again.”

Wow, that’s some chutzpah right there. The federal government raids your town for an ongoing criminal enterprise and the mayor whines that the Feds are making you look bad?

Next up: Harley “Bubba” Drinkwater of Idabel, Oklahoma testifies before Congress that a DEA raid on the meth lab he was running out of his basement has severely “downgraded” the value of his property.

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{Post by See-Dubya. H/t on the Fairfax county item to Mrs. See-Dubya}

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