War between Russia and Georgia?
When I scanned the headlines this morning this conflict didn’t look that serious. I thought it was Georgia vs. Russian-backed rebels. No, it’s Russia. Captain Ed, Gerard, and Ace’s co-blogger Gabriel Malor all insist this is very serious.
Not much to add from me, but I thought it’s interesting that the Russian media has started churning out propaganda already.
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{Post by See-Dubya.}
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Yeah, this could be a powderkeg in Europe… again.
yes, this is extremely serious – I can’t believe no one is taking much notice..
(yawn) Is the fence built yet?
For the liberals, Its georgia the COUNTRY, its next to russia not alabama, and yes I am following this since we are allied with georgia. I believe we even wanted georgia to be part of nato. I believe we have trainers there or at least we did.
saw some vid on fox news, not pretty.
they also showed opening night fireworks from Beijing that you couldnt even see through the smog….
yes we have trainers there And had about 1000 troops there as of july 15th. They are us allies. This could get bad quickly.
I don’t understand how this could happen. Did Russia pass the global test and get UN approval beforehand, or are they acting unilaterally?
Probably unilateral – and they know they can get away with it too because the Euroweenies depend on Russia for gas, etc… They will side with Russia against Georgia, and we will be on Georgia’s side.
Not good.
Cheddar:
Nuclear power at war with our ally. I’m not yawning.
Sonofdy: Yep, trainers. (I saw another link that said the U.S. troops doing the training were actually based in Georgia the state.)
I suspect their desire to join NATO might have set off Russia’s desire to teach them a lesson.
Oh George. Where are you? Your “good man” is starting a war.
Russia is at war. Again. And it’s obvious this has been in planning for a while. The guns of August again, and where are our intelligence services? Anybody home? I hear we’ll be sending an envoy. I bet Putin is quaking in his jackboots.
This is very bad, people. And it is just the beginning.
The MSN isn’t paying much attention to it while they figure out how to blame it on Bush and how Obama will magically make it all better.
Obamas plan, withdraw…
Russia will claim they are acting in defense since Georgia initiated the combat by “re-taking” sections of their country from Russian backed rebels trying to control the region. But anyone with any common sense will see that South Ossetia is under the country of Georgia and any incursion into that region is an attack on Georgia’s sovereignty. But the area has a lot of Russian backed rebels trying to take over that region. But any combat in this region is taking place on Georgian soil, so the Russians are clearly invading another country at the moment.
Yeah, this could get even more messy as they continue shooting at each other.
My interpretation on the matter is that Russia supports the breakaway countries and wants to recognize their independence. The US does this all th time. I don’t believe Russia has any genuine interest in taking control of Georgia. I don’t care what those articles say that’s what I believe.
this could get very nasty.
already hearing of near 2k dead…
Oh My Goodness!
I hope the US doesn’t get pulled in.
I disagree, I think russia wants land it lost when the USSR broke up. This land will go back to russia if they win.
This can’t help Michelle O’s kids.
This is a time for the US to lead. Will George Bush do anything?
One of the two airbases that Russia has bombed was reported to have US trainers. I’ve been following this all morning and missed out on most the fun with the Big O salute.
LGM he already is.
I hope so since it’s a 50/50 chance that our next president will NOT be a leader!
The US troops were stationed at the Georgian military base that was attacked … 15 miles from the capitol … reportedly about 125 American personnel there …
Georgia has become a Democracy and an American ally and has also been providing troops to the coalition in Iraq …
Russia (meaning Putin) went bonkers when Georgia was trying to get into NATO …
As far as I am concerned this is just the continuation of Putin’s plan to escalate military conflict in the region in an attempt to recapture Russia’s position of power in the world …
Lgm – have you gone down to your recruiter’s office to enlist? When are YOU going to do YOUR part instead of sitting back on your @$$ and criticize? Put up or shut up. If we get involved, are you going to be there, volunteering to go to Georgia? Stop calling names – you don’t have a leg to stand on.
I heard they announced todate that they are pulling their 2000 troops out.
Sorry to change the subject
sambo …
Correct … they are needed for this unexpected fight at home … not a planned pull-out …
lgm- not to worry. Obamadinejad will, with a wave of his hand, make it rain gumdrops and teddy bears. What a schmendrick.
Think about it. The Soviet Union disintegrats, allowing it to disband, and eliminate all debts. Then its prime state Russia uses capitalism to rebuild, then it starts reassembling the old soviet union.
Yes DesertLover. Sorry I didn’t articulate that…not one of my strong points.
So what do you suggest he do?
So what do you suggest he do?
sambo …
no problem … just clarifying …
Good analysis of the situation and updates here.
This is indeed a very, very, very serious conflict. I am quite shocked that the US media is not in full “Breaking News” mode – appearantly covering the Olympics is more important and since neither Britney nor Paris are involved….
Sarcasm aside – this could very well be the beginning of an all-out war in the caucasus region. The German news media is all over this story which is given way much air time than the Olympics. This is a very serious situation. It seems that Georgian forces have alredy shot down five russian bombers. Right now, military forces of both nations are fighting inside and around the regional capital of Zchinwali.
If you believe russian media reports (Interfax – always take them with a grain of salt), more than 1.400 people have been killed since the fighting broke out this morning…
here you go lgm:
Yikes.
And Obama on vacation, what’re we gonna do?
Sambo,
Sounds a lot like Obama’s press release:
here’s the Mr 0 comment LGM
Chris from Germany:
Fox has it here as “urgent”.
TOS: only saw part of it. Sounds like McCains also
-Mister P
Whatever it is, you can rest assured lgm will be opposed to it.
Personally, I’m not sure we should do anything. Georgia isn’t a member of NATO yet, and as such action by Russia doesn’t constitute an attack on an ally yet. Our trans-Caucasus air corridor isn’t disrupted by trouble in this small breakaway region, so our efforts in Afghanistan shouldn’t be hindered.
It sounds to me like this is a legitimate beef between Russia and Georgia, with Russia responding to a legitimate threat to Russian citizens, and Georgia desiring to maintain its geographical integrity, as parts of the breakaway region are primarily Georgian.
We can’t fight everywhere at once. We’re committed to two theatre level low-intensity conflicts already, which has stretched our military as it is. I think we should be very hesitant about confronting the bear in its own backyard.
That’s what Russia is counting on.
TOS, doesn’t look like “restraint” and Obama needs to stop at just saying that because the president needs to deal with this and not some president wannabe. This goes for McCain as well.
interestingly, thats what the logic was for the nazi invasion of poland.
atheling, russia would actualy be wrong on that count. No by much, but wrong.
@atheling: I noticed, although Fox lead story on the web for today seems to be “Our dogs were our children” about some botched drug raid in Maryland. Aside from Fox, CNN has covered the story to some extent (at least before the Olympic ceremonies started) but that seems to be about it. MSNBC (yes, I know…) and ABC News don’t seem to be interested and the story is not even highlighted on Drudge…
All I am saying is that over here, there has been nothing else on TV or radio for about 10 straight hours now – this is how serious our media is taking it. I sure hope they are wrong in doing so, but at the moment I doubt it… From what I hear in our media, Zchinwali has been shelled and bombarded for four or five hours now – this is a city of 35.000 people…
Additionally, a number of US military advisors are stationed in Georgia right now and the Georgian president has already asked for US assistance.
Unfortunately, Russia counting on it doesn’t mean I’m wrong.
Seriously, what are we going to do, engage Russian forces in open battle? Who here honestly thinks we can maintain the tempo in Afghanistan and Iraq, AND accomplish that? That’d be like us defending our Mexican border with military force, and Russia sending forces to Mexico.
Bad idea.
Yashmak:
I didn’t mean to say you were wrong. But it certainly means that our position is between a rock and a hard place.
No. Surrender. No doubt Obama admires the old USSR and its communist leanings and the people of Georgia are just silly for resisting a return to being subjugated to a world power.
I’m with see-dubya. This is bad and I’m not yawning.
@Chris from Germany:
Funny, I went to Fox’s site, and the first screaming headline is:
Russia invades Georgia.
Yashmak, No war is a good idea, but there are times when you don’t have a choice. We bugged out on one ally in my lifetime. I don’t ever want to have that happen again! If one of our allies asks us for help, regardless of lgm and others views to the contrary, we CANNOT say “Sorry, I’m otherwise occupied at the moment. I’d like to help you, but I just can’t seem to find the time or resources to do it. Try to work it out by yourself for now. Check back with me later.”
– aethling
Agreed. . .although I’d say it’s Georgia and its breakaway region that are between a rock and a hard place. Caught between a re-awakening bear, and a friendly superpower that’s probably not capable (at this point) of providing the level military assistance they’d need to beat that bear.
TOS: here was McCains statement…much stronger than the summary I saw.
Sambo:
Thanks. At least McCain sounds like a leader who takes action.
One doesn’t follow from the other. We have a lot of allies (via treaty) who aren’t in NATO. The fact that they are supporting us in Iraq argues that they are a closer ally than most of NATO. You’re right about us not being able to do anything, though. Our military has been rebuilt to fight assymetric guerilla type wars. We don’t begin to have the manpower or equipment for another land war on the Euro/Asian continent.
– cpodug
Yeah, it galls. But a wise nation picks its battles, and those whose battles are picked for them tend to do poorly. I don’t even know enough about this struggle to claim from authority that Georgia is in the right here. I doubt most of the rest of us do either.
Anything is possible with Putin. He murdered his opposition, basically took control of the government, and is now trying to blackmail the west economically. Perhaps Bush can borrow Obama’s line: “This is not the Putin that I once knew…”
@cpodug: Sorry, I’m otherwise occupied at the moment… This is exactly what will happen. One can only hope that this situation will not end with Georgia loosing its independence. They are probably counting on a US intervention now (having sent troops to Iraq and all), but I doubt anything like that will happen. As I said, one can only hope that these people will not loose their independence over this conflict.
Yeah, we really got our butts kicked in WWII. I’m glad those German troops aren’t occupying us anymore, though.
Funny, they’re not speaking Japanese at the Beijing Olympics, either. You can’t win a war on two fronts, remember?
We can, and we would beat them. The question would be is it worth it?
txvet2 said: “We have a lot of allies (via treaty) who aren’t in NATO.”
What treaty have we signed with Georgia? I’m honestly curious, as about 30 minutes of searching hasn’t turned up anything except an ‘Open Air Agreement’, and lots of mentions of how our nations are very friendly. We’re tied by treaty obligation to help NATO members. We’re NOT tied to help every nation that’s friendly or cooperative with us, even if they’re seeking membership in NATO. It’s harsh, but it’s an important distinction, especially when our military resources are already stretched to the point where we CAN’T do anything.
Hypothetical situation: Fighting continues, and we decide to send aerial support. We tangle with Russia, drawing retaliation and escalation. . .at which point. . .WHAT?
We withdraw from Iraq, abandoning a work in progress, work we’ve all been insisting must be completed? From Afghanistan? Same story there. Our involvement would carry the very real risk that Georgia (who may well prevail here, for all I know) as a whole would fall back under Russian sway, instead of the relatively small area currently being contested. THAT would be a far bigger tradgedy, and I find it difficult to see the situation working out any other way
Georgian president Saakashvili pleads on CNN for the West to “wake up”:
http://edition.cnn.com/video/#/video/world/2008/08/08/intv.saakashvili.cnn
“Wake up … this is about the basic western values … this is about the values the US has always preached us … we are attacked because we want to be free … because we want to build a genuine democracy … because we have built a free-enterprise society … if Americans and Europeans don’t stand up for their own priciples and values, those values will be in danger – today in Georgia and tomorrow elsewhere …”
A must-watch interview:
http://edition.cnn.com/video/#/video/world/2008/08/08/intv.saakashvili.cnn
– txvet2
The exception doesn’t disprove the general rule, and the situations have vast and obvious differences.
– sonofdy
You might be right, assuming things didn’t go nuclear (in which case we’d ALL lose). Your question is key. Where will our nation be when we’re drawn into another conflict, in a region most Americans don’t even know about, to fight a conflict most Americans don’t understand? It’s hard to say where such a conflict would stop even if it remained conventional, so it’s hard to say who would win or lose, and what would be left when the dust
cleared.
We are a superpower, but there are limits to what even we can do. To act otherwise carries a deep risk to our nation.
We have a lot we can do:
- Economic (Russia markets are way down today and 25 percent on the year)
- Anti tank weapons
- surface to air weapons (we make the best!)
- political pressure
ect…
And lgm is running down to his local military recruiting office to enlist
sambo,
I fully support any of those sorts of assistance, and really do hope this situation doesn’t blow up in Georgia’s face any further.
Just watched the interview with Saakashvili to the very end:
“We are in the same place that Afghanistan was … it took the courage of Ronald Regan to reverse the Soviet adventures in Afghanistan … looks like the adventures are back … human rights and freedom are in grave danger again … President Bush always said that Georgia is a beacon of liberty … we did not do it for him, we did it for our people … we believe in democracy and we believe in freedom … I went to an university in America and they taught me that America always stands up for freedom and that America always helps freedom-loving countries … this is the moment of truth for everybody … are we willing to protect a people that deserves to be protected? … it is high-time to wake up for Europe.”
I already said it and I am saying it again – a must-watch interview:
http://edition.cnn.com/video/#/video/world/2008/08/08/intv.saakashvili.cnn
Agreed Yashmak…I’m just not sure whether Russia will/wants to cooperate.
WOW Sambo, just replace Russia with Mexico and Georgia with the USA and that’s what we had the other day.
good stuff ChrisFromGermany . Keep it coming.
“ethinic cleansing…” is what they are calling it.
-Misscheryl
That’s what they’re calling the Georgian bombardment of the city in South Ossetia? Or the Russian response?
Honest question.
McCain has already made a strong statement against the Russians (pretty much all he can do, in all honesty).
I’m waiting to hear if Obama has counseled evacuating Charleston.
Deja vu moment – I was on watch, listening to the USS Maddox being attacked in the Gulf of Tonkin. I hear the same sense of urgency now from Georgian president Saakashvili.
Russians don’t really care for Georgians or Georgia.
Furthermore if they wanted land they lost they could just take the Ukraine under their wing. There are a lot of Ukrainians who believe that they belong to Russia instead. In addition to that the land in this region where the incident is happenning is not really of any strategic or economic value IMHO. I think they just got pissed that the Georgians killed their troops.
Russia has, pretty recently, indicated its support for Georgia maintaining its integrity as a unified republic (including South Ossetia). My take at this point, is that this really is as it’s being reported, a Russian retaliation for the Georgian bombardment of a city inhabited by many Russian citizens.
I sincerely hope it goes no further (i.e., general invasion of Georgia by Russia).
yashmak, so you honestly expect me to believe that russia invaded georgia to prevent georgia from bombing georgia???
That is what is happening.
You would sound urgent as well if you were being invaded by another nation.
Honestly, I’m not sure Yashmak – I heard the comment when reporting the casualties and I tried to find out who called it that. I’m sure you agree – whatever excuse they are using for the purpose of this conflict – you can be sure “ethnic cleansing” cannot be justified, unless, that is the true reason for it.
Off topic: ABC headline right now – Edwards Admits Sexual Affair; Lied as Presidential Candidate
http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=5441195&page=1
There is a rather substantial oil pipeline that runs through a small section of Georgia and ends up in Turkey. If this conflict cannot be contained or Russia ends up invading Georgia, then this could be a very serious situation in deed. To assume that this is a Russia-Georgia war with no other implications is a bit foolish at this time.
I asked becayse it occurs to me, why would Russia engage in ethnic cleansing? It’s a nation with dozens of ethnicities itself.
I discussed this today with my son-in-law who is Russian (been in the states four years). It is interesting to hear his perspective as a Russian compared to what our news media feeds us. Bottom line is that this issue has been going on for years and years and much of it is tied to the region in dispute being used as a hideaway for terrorists. This is nothing new. There is a lot of Russian “irritation” that Georgia allows the terrorists to hide there without facing justice. My SIL is not a fan of Putin at all and believes Russia is headed backwards towards a more communist rather than socialist government but he says most Russians are fiercely protective of their land and they feel that Georgia is aiding and abetting the terrorists there as well as the neighboring Chechen rebels. Needless to say we didn’t discuss the US setting up the Georgian army……
Oh… and also my SIL says that South Ossetia is Russian, not Georgian so there is dispute as to who even owns the region.
ptrmom, you hit the nail right on the head. Thank you.
-sonofdy
I mean, beyond South Ossetia, the focal point of this whole debacle. . .I mean an general invasion of the rest of Georgia. If THAT happens, then there may be real trouble.
Nope. It’s the Russian citizens who were living in the part of Georgia that Georgia bombed that are (if the reports are to be believed) the impetus for Russia’s actions. That, I can understand.
It is time for Western Europe to step up to the plate in their own interest here. Do England, France and Germany, not to mention Poland and Turkey, want another round of aggression from Russia and another cold or even partially hot war? Appeasement was tried about 50 years ago and didn’t work. Maybe some strong language and economic sanctions will work to head this off it gets out of control. Of course, the likelihood is that such action won’t work anyway – it certainly hasn’t stopped Iran. But it is worth a try before the situation escalates to a regional war.
Misscheryl,
I found the ‘ethnic cleansing’ comment. . .or at least A ethnic cleansing comment. . .on MSNBC related to this:
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused Georgia of driving people from their homes. “We are receiving reports that a policy of ethnic cleansing was being conducted in villages in South Ossetia, the number of refugees is climbing, the panic is growing, people are trying to save their lives,” he said.
Based on this report, which of course requires independent verification before I totally buy into it, and the comments above of ptrmom (#86), and the likelihood that this was all triggered by Georgia’s bombardment of Tskhinavli, I humbly submit that it’s a bit early for us to be talking about whose side to take.
Sounds like both sides have some explaining to do.
Wow some of you are banging the war drums! I suggest you walk your butts down to the recruiters office and enlist, I can assure you that we are short a few ground troops to battle Russia in it’s own back yard. We have problems enough scraping up enough Marines to deploy to Iraq as it is. Don’t believe everything you see on the Military channel.
It does sound like it could get worse.
Georgia like Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania doesn’t want to be reconquered by the Russians, so they’ve tried to join NATO…and so far NATO has rebuffed them-although NATO did take in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania…perhaps the NATO naybobs will reconsider-certainly the US should continue to put on pressure.
I firmly believe that Putin intends to remake himself as a Quasi-Czar and intends to reconstitute the Russian Empire
I spoke too soon …the Russians have invaded Georgia it appears and there is fighting as i write this
Abkhazia is another part of Georgia according to the UN, if the Wiki article is up to date, but is a separate state according to, well, Abkhazia. Apparently 80% of its inhabitants are Russian citizens. If the numbers in South Ossetia are similar, it’s even less surprising that Russia would take action after the Georgian bombardment.
Pat Buchanan has been right all along.
I find this note troubling:
– MSNBC
So just hours after he announces a cease-fire with the separatists, he has the Georgian army commence bombardment of the South Ossetian capital?
From what I have seen over the past couple of years Putin has been wanting to use any excuse to mix it up with the US. His threats about the missile defense shield (a good plan if Iran start lobbing nuclear armed missiles at Europe), or by helping Iran with their weapons grade fissile material enrichment program, and by selling Iran the latest in airspace defense technology.
This could get scary if the small contingent of troops we have in the area come under direct attack. Hopefully the fighting will stay localized to the disputed region and diplomacy and win the day otherwise it could get really ugly really fast depending on how President Bush decides to support the Georgians. Not that anyone can count on the toothless NATO member nations to do anything to come to Georgia’s aid.
Gator70 I see you have jumped on the old tried and failed chickenhawk strategy. Not that I want to see our military fighting on another front right now, but there are times when one has to stand and fight in the face of aggression.
Damn! Looks like it is getting ugly I sure hope we don’t see another “Guns of August” scenario that brought the Western World into the great meat grinder that began in 1914.
Yashmak, I believed you missed part of it.
“Fierce fighting is under way,” he said.[8] Georgian commander Mamuka Kurashvili, on the other hand, was quoted to have said, “Despite our call for peace and a unilateral cease-fire, separatists continued shelling Georgian villages. We are forced to restore constitutional order in the whole region.” He did not specify the action Georgia planned to take but Tbilisi does not recognize the South Ossetian government and has pledged to restore its control over the province.[