Is Georgia in 2008 like Hungary in 1956?
I’ve said before that America needs to take up for her allies. It keeps the world safe:
The world works as well as it does–and, granted, that’s pretty marginal–in large part because the United States guarantees the security of its allies. Places like Taiwan and South Korea churn out magic toilets and miniature automobiles knowing that the United States will respond to incursions and aggression with overwhelming and sustained force. So far, our defense of the fledgling Iraqi government has confirmed that arrangement.
America does what it says. If you have an American security guarantee–and I’m looking at you,Saudi Arabia and Pakistan–you don’t need to build a nuclear arsenal. America honors its commitments, and the world keeps ticking–well, arrhythmically stuttering, anyhow–because there are big U.S. guns ready to retaliate against aggression. No better friend. No worse enemy. If America is backing you, you’re golden.
Unless I’m mistaken, we’ve signed no security guarantees with Georgia. But we are discussing bringing them into NATO, we’re training and supplying their soldiers, and they’ve been fighting in Iraq on our side.
So we’re not bound to do anything to help Georgia–except by our commitment to supporting freedom and opposing tyranny around the world. We’ve staked much of our identity as a nation on exactly that commitment, and as Georgian President Saakashvili notes, our reputation is under scrutiny:
If Georgia falls, this will also mean the fall of the West in the entire former Soviet Union and beyond. Leaders in neighboring states — whether in Ukraine, in other Caucasian states or in Central Asia — will have to consider whether the price of freedom and independence is indeed too high.
________________________________
We’ve faced such a situation before, and we chose, I think, quite poorly. We promised too much, and we delivered too little.
In 1956, Hungary was a member of the Warsaw Pact. After Stalin’s death, when Krushchev came to power, there was a bit of liberalization in Russia and Hungary picked up on that. In fact, they decided, spontaneously, to have a revolution and kick the commies out. Which they did, smashing the statue of Stalin in the process*, until Russia said “oh no you didn’t” and marched back in on November 4th and took it over again, with much repression and execution in their wake.
The story of the 1956 Hungarian Revolution is laid out here. This assessment bears excerpting:
Although the governments of the free world watched the Hungarian Revolution with deep admiration, they never seriously considered providing military support, nor condemnation strong enough to stop the brutal actions of the Soviet Union.
However, the heroes of 1956 did not die or suffer in vain. They demonstrated such uncommon bravery, such a universal yearning for freedom from foreign tyranny, that the whole world was forced to see the true face of communism at last.
If it is condemnation of Russian aggression that may make a difference, we’ll have plenty of that. Russia is, as Saakashvili notes, at war with Georgia, and their war has spread far beyond South Ossetia and into the rest of the country. Putin’s transparent rationalizations hide an avaricious agenda of conquest, and he must be opposed. We see the true face of Putin at last, and he’s every bit as ugly as the totalitarian Evil Empire which proceeded him (to which he bears an unmistakable family resemblance.)
Russia’s attacks are not only without justification, but they’re also indiscriminate and far out of any doctrine of proportion. No imminent threat justifies their actions. Nothing except a desire to punish and subjugate Georgia motivates their shelling of civilian targets far from South Ossetia. Russia should be ashamed of itself and of its leader.
I hope this naked aggression backfires on Russia like their catastrophic invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. They poured blood and treasure into that project for years, and earned the world’s opprobrium even as they hastened their empire’s downfall through their folly. We helped that defeat happen, of course, and I want to see us help out again.
Exactly how we do so…well, that’s the tough part, isn’t it?
On the other hand: one controversial detail of the uprising is whether or not Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty had extended false hope to the revolutionaries of military relief from America and/ or the U.N. A contemporary analysis of RFE/RL programmimg (available in pdf here) suggests there is some truth to that charge.
We must be careful in Georgia not to repeat that mistake. We must not bluff, and we can’t promise or imply what we will not back up. The stakes are too high.
But they’re too high to do nothing, as well.
*The Times of London article linked above notes that a statue of Stalin still stands in the town of Gori, Georgia –because it’s Stalin’s birthplace. No wonder Putin wants it back. It’s like Mount Vernon for him.
______________________________
{Post by See-Dubya.} Some more good points here at the Sundries Shack and at Ace’s. Oh, and once again, Tom Clancy’s writing…well, a Clancy-branded video game…feels eerily prophetic about world events.
I don’t like it when Clancy proves prophetic about world events. They’re never nice events.
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er – I’d actually agree with you on that point. Trying to paint me as a liberal is not going to get you anywhere. I’ve stated my opinion – that this conflict is not for us to get involved in – and if you are going to start “emoting” (in your own words) about liberal provocations passing for “art” (and randomly assuming me to be a liberal based on what, exactly?) rather than the situation at hand then this discussion is pointless.
2 kopeks from the new guy:
You blame Georgia? fine. Get the Russians out and an OSCE
observerintervention force in the breakaway territories to resettle refugees and disarm militias.You blame Russia? fine. Find away to force them out. Intervene directly and pay the price of defending a friend.
You blame Russia, but can’t see how to do anything on the ground in Georgia? fine. Russia is vulnerable to retaliation-in-kind, away from strength. Poland and/or Lithuania stage vs. Kaliningrad. Ukraine and/or Romania stage vs. Trans-dniester. U.S. forces support those efforts, or roll up in the North Pacific by sea off the occupied Northern Territories of Japan.
Make it clear that either the Georgia issue is resolved without force as of right now, or several frozen conflicts will be resolved using the *exact same standards in mirror view* to what Russia is doing in the Republic of Georgia.
But if you value the freedoms won in Eastern Europe and in the Color Revolutions, don’t just sit there and do nothing.
expat,
As sonofdy put it. . .”if you say so, eyes rolling”.
I absolutely LOVE this sort of comment, by the way:
“There is not enough time or space on here to educate you and A.”
“I won’t get into specifics so you cannot spill the beans to the NYT.”
“Too much info so far.”
They provide a convenient substitute for displaying any actual knowledge of the region’s history, the causes for this conflict, or anything else for that matter.
And I suspect if certain rablerousers in the South West wanted to join Mexico, you’d give away California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas and if the US Citizens of those states complained, you’d tell them they were morally wrong.
South Ossetia is a part of Georgia. They don’t want independence, they want to be absorbed by Russia. This isn’t some freedom movement, it’s organized and funded by Russia to regain control of Georgia as part of their long range plan to retake much of the territory they lost.
Georgia wants to join NATO. The United States wants Georgia as a part of NATO. France and Germany blocked that move because they didn’t want to piss off Putin. Do you see anything moral in that?
Georgia has sacrificed its own blood in order to paint us a picture of the real horror going on in neo-Soviet Russia, which is run by a proud KGB spy. If we can’t understand what we see before us now, etched in blood, then we deserve the suffering we will receive after we allow Putin to consolidate his malignant regime.
For this reason, if no other, John McCain must be our next president. Putin is simply licking his lips at the prospect of dealing with Obama, whose response on Georgia has been pathetic.
I’m blogging about the outrage taking place in Georgia at La Russophobe.
The fighting is now in Georgia Proper. No big suprise to us who pay attention. Thats right, it is now outside of the so called “breakaway” regions. The illegal war of aggression in Georgia is expanding. Is a genocide of the Georgians next?
Russians take GORI outside of south ossetia
Where are the russian propogandists who said the russians would stop at the border?
Russians in senaki also outside of any “breakaway” region.
sonofdy,
What actions should President George Bush take right now?
Sorry folks but the last time I checked Georgia instigated the entire mess. I’m not buying that they are the victims without any blood on their hands. I don’t see much to be gained by having Georgia as an ally. I don’t believe in NATO or the UN as I believe their time as relevent or even remotely useful tools of diplomacy and military power has faded into obscurity and uselessness. I would rather much have the efforts that the United States uses there to be instead used right here at home building a wall on our southern borders. There are only so many battles that we must engage in while being viewed as a world police force. I think in this example it is a good one to draw the line and say “you’re on your own Georgia because you started this mess”. The whole suggestion that France and Germany did not want Georgia in NATO underscores my thoughts. France is about the most useless ally and ungrateful country I can recall in my life. Why should I care what they think? Why should the United States even ally ourselves with such arrogant and ingoramus countries anyway.
I believe that instability in this regiion might cause oil prices to change but the big and real battle in oil prices is or should be in the Persian Gulf. After our country funnelled billions of dollars into the Iraqui state we get nothing but some pats on the back from merely a few ungrateful folks in that country.
This Russian behavior also smacks of Hitler in the very earliest stages of war prior to the onset of full scale hostilities throughout Europe. Ignoring the aggression and appeasing the Russians will only lead to more aggression and more appeasement. Would the Russians try to re-establish the old boundaries of the Soviet Union? If so, then you are looking at full scale modern war once again on the European continent.
That would be true if Georgia had actualy attacked russia.
mpchops, there is little we can do at this point, besides use air power. Russia is about to distroy the entire country of Georgia and everybody is just going to watch. Expect other countries to suffer the same fate. Looking at you armenia.
Who is next? Estonia? Armenia? Belorussia? Who?
sonofdy,
Georgia attacked south ossetia.
CHEP: south ossetia is IN georgia. It is internationaly recongized as part of Georgia. What Georgia did was attack a seperatist rebel stronghold on south ossetia to regain control of its own land.
And it does not explain why russia is now within 35 miles of the georgian capital and is taking over the entire country of georgia!!!
Sonofdy,
I don’t agree that it was their own land. I believe the breakaway region had a sincere interest to be a part of Russia. Considering that this did not develop overnight and that Russia had already issued passports to people of South Ossetia I disagree. In addition to that I am not trying to tell you what to believe, but your responses are only half truths. I believe that if Georgia wanted to remain peaceful they would have let the “seperatists be”. I don’t agree with that term as I believe South Ossetia was no different than Georgia in wanting it’s own independence from Russia.
It’s never so black and white but I firmly believe that Georgia was “asking for it” and they very well intended to spark the conflict with the intention of draggin the United States into a war I do not believe in myself. We have enough problems here at home.
Sonofdy,
I agree that there is little we can do, so the discussion of who’s fault this is is largely academic.
Personally, I think that Russia was waiting for this oppurtunity, which Georgia provided. However, I am still unsure of Georgia’s intentions in this whole matter. That is to say, I’m sure Russia intends on taking over Georgia, but I think there may be some truth in Georgia wanting Russia to attack so that their “big brother”, the US, would come help them out.
There’s a lot of talk about if the US should or shouldn’t help them out, but ultimately, I think there’s little we can do, both politically and physically. If Generals are saying that they’re waiting for resources to be freed in Iraq to suppliment the ones in Afghanistan, I doubt we have the manpower to sustain a defense in Georgia alone if Russia is dedicated to having it.
We can put some troops on the ground and hop that Russia doesn’t want to escalate things by attacking US forces. We could push Georgia’s membership into NATO and hope that Russia doesn’t want to escalate things by attacking a member of NATO. But ultimately, I don’t think we’re in a position to FORCE Russia to stop. The only the we can do, beyond issuing equally as effective(which is to say, USELESS) McCain and Obama statementes, is try to call their bluff. But do we really want to go there?
Chep-
When the media first broadcasted the story it was because of a Russian press release. It was only after the fact did they realize that the press release was incorrect. Georgia responded to the attacks by Russia by trying to take control of their wayward region. Never, ever read just one newspaper.
The End.
Yeah and I don’t feel anything for Georgia. They reap what they have sown.
chep, well enjoy the genocide.
Yep. Let them be. I am tired of countries getting into war with the intention of dragging in the United States. Let’s keep our money and troops at home this time. I don’t want another ungrateful ally.
I agree there is little we can do. South Ossetia has had a problem with rebels and terrorist activity for years. SO rebels often attack Georgia like Palestine extremists attack Israel.
Genocide happens all over the world and the US never steps in. How many times did it happen in Africa in the last 10 years? It doesn’t make it right. However I think the US has to be intelligent on where and what we commit to in a military manner. This does not warrant anything just yet from my point of view.
Your responses are very personal in nature. My responses are very opposite. I believe that you are treading on somewhat juvenile territory because of that. However I will try to explain my point of view anyway.
Georgia did not attack Russia. Russia, in Hitlerian fashion, claims to be helping Russians in South Ossetia. This is a great pretext to take more land than and gain full control of a Southern Warm Water port.
My guess is that America is helping Georgia with logistics (troop transport) and, hopefully some surface to air missiles bought in the arms market. If I was Georgia, I would blow up the oil pipeline (second longest in the world) to create more international pressure.
That will ignite the all out war some of you seek.
Ha, you right-wingers are really bizarre. This is a huge setback to U.S. foreign policy and some of you don’t think it’s very important. Some even think Russia did the right thing.
A lot you admire Putin– his unbridled use of military force, his disdain for the legal system, unregulated markets. But the problem is that he is better at playing this game than Bush. Putin is a KGB man, smart and brutal. Bush is an upperclass twit. We Americans can never out do the Russians in their game,and why would we? Respect for human rights and the law, military restraint — that’s what we used to be good at and it allowed us to win the Cold War. We used to understand the value of both hard and soft power. Now we’ve lost our way and our global power is on the decline. At least McCain understands this.
Nope it would just bug the living crap out of the russians. It doesn’t pass that much oil. Besides the pipline is in GEORGIA so it only makes sense to deny an enemy invading and raping your country any advantage you can.
Right now the “leader” we need to concern ourselves with is GW Bush…if he allows Georgia to fall -thanks to Germany’s Merkels opposition to Georgia’s immediate entrance to NATO- then Ukraine and even the new NATO members of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are next.
If Putin thinks we will do nothing about Georgia, he will try with Estonia-for which the both Estonian and Russian foreign ministers signed an agreement with respect to territory-but Putin did not-and there are Russian minorities in Estonia (Westernmost tip bordering Russian Federation–which once again sets up pretext for another Hitler-like invasion.
US policy at least should be to defend Georgia surrounding Soth Ossetia.
I suppose I agree. At the same time some people are declaring that it is the big reason why Russia wants to invade. My previous response was that there was nothing of any great economic value there to the US. I still believe that is true.
I seek no war, but neither do I ignore the lessons of history or the nature of geopolitical reality. If your survival is at stake, and that is apparently the case with Georgia, you do what ever is necessary no matter how futile.
The leftist appeasers prior to WW-II constantly ridiculed Winston Churchill until he was proved all too right. I consider it a badge of honor to be ridiculed by the appeasers and apologists of the left who are unable to confront evil. (Oh, I forgot, in the secular world, there is no evil only better or worse relativist thinking.)
My view is that they are looking to re-create the USSR. And blowing the pipe will annoy the russians but it would take very little time to repair it. Either way, russia gets one of the old soviet republics back.
True, but the goal is to stop the NEXT war. Barring air power, the russians have already taken Georgia. If the usa was going to do something militarily, we should have done it friday. I wouldn’t be suprised to see the gulags reopened in the next little while.
Now Russia is launching cyber attacks on the Georgian internet, striking telephone towers and apparently trying to bomb the democratically elected president of the country and kill him.
It’s also invaded Abkhazia, where Georgian troops had no involvement whatsoever.
What does any of this have to do with their so-called effort to “defend” Ossetia?
How can Russians possibly justify this type of interference in Ossetia when they insisted nobody could interfere when Chechnya wanted out of Russia. Then it was a “domestic” problem for the home country only.
How neo-Soviet can you get?
Notice the apologist language here. The oil pipeline doesn’t pass all that much oil and Georgia doesn’t have much economic value, and after all the South Ossetians are really Russians. This is almost word for word the language of the English and the French leadership prior to WW-II when Hitler made his first conquest to test the resolve of the Western powers.
Unless you confront naked power in the beginning, you will have to confront it at your disadvantage in the future. It appears that the latest generation of Americans hasn’t been taught that lesson.
sonofdy said: “Russians take GORI outside of south ossetia.” “Russians in senaki also outside of any ‘breakaway’ region.”
Yes, I saw that on Fox during my lunch hour. Also heard the Georgian Ambadassor asking (read pleading) for America’s help.
Antaradus, with his mewling about tax dollars and Russian winters, is trying to distract us from the truth. I echo other commenters who have strongly suggested that he educate himself about the region: its history, its geography, its people, etc.
Right now we can aid Georgia with technology. But if the time comes when they need our troops, we must send them in! We help our friends because we are Americans. That’s how we think. That’s what we do.
Antaradus doesn’t get it.
I don’t believe we are at a crossroads with evidence that would promote US intervention. I would not call that leftis appeaser. ridicule, or apologetic. It is what it is and everyone is entitle to believe what they may.
My thoughts are that this is something that the US should stay out of at this point. If it grows to an infection in some of the other countries mentioned that I am wrong. I believe that is ok to be wrong because the reality is nobody is perfect and nobody knows all the facts and what is going on in the minds at the Kremlin.
Lots of right wing people use these sort of scare tactics (as do left wing nutcases) in order to incite the mob mentality. It is too early for that IMHO. The US needs to remain fast until we have more clear evidence which supports some of the ideas of genocide and nation building which have been suggested here. In light of the conflict here the region has been very unstable for years and this is not a surprise to many people who did not become politically aware or alerted to this area recently. Being calculated and ready are as important as choosing the battles to fight.
Maybe it isn’t any different, but when Georgia wanted independence from Russia, that would not have justified a neighboring country invading Russia to help Georgia secede. That would be aggression, plain and simple.
It’s one thing if somebody’s human rights were being threatened or abused, but unless you’re making that case here, then it’s just some demographic group that wants its own way, and Russia throwing its weight around just because because it can.
I am worried and sad about what’s happening in Georgia. You know, I am romanian, so for us that lived in the former soviet block what happens right now is a bad remeinder of a not so long ago era. If Georgia falls to Rusia who is the next ex soviet republic or former Warsaw’s pact nation to fall? And where is USA when you need it? George Bush was cosy with the athlets in Beijing instead of being in Washington DC trying to defend a friend in need. Its sad and tragic.
According to what i’ve read today, its a 1 million bbp supply.
Not just a small amount.
Little Ma:
Too late. Georgia has about 48 hours left before it is part of “greater russia”
This is a huge setback to U.S. foreign policy and some of you don’t think it’s very important.
My thoughts are that this is something that the US should stay out of at this point.
Georgia just said thier country is “effectively cut in half”. The UN security counil is going to meet and do nothing because russia has veto power. Georgia is doomed. Sorry Georgia. Armenia, you could be next. Or any of the other old soviet republics.
Yes. Useless. See my previous comment.
Clemy,
As harsh a idea as this is, what is the risks associated with US involvement in this situation relative to the reward we would gain from such actions?
I don’t think you have it correct. Most people would agree that it is a huge setback to our efforts. However there are many opinions on what is the correct course of action at this very moment in time.
As harsh a idea as this is, what is the risks associated with US involvement in this situation relative to the reward we would gain from such actions?
Some of my thoughts on this as well….
I would not call leftists appeasers or apologists. Everyone is entitled to believe what they may.
————————————-
The point is that WW-II resulted from the inaction of democratically elected government leaders. The likes of Chamberlain constantly apologized for Hitler. In the end, the apologies and appeasement only emboldened Hitler and led to the deaths of 10s of millions of people.
Most of the left loves to condemn people with a conservative view as warmongers and scaremongers. The truth is that most on the right hate war far more than those on the left because it is the right that sends their sons and daughters to war.
Question: Did the posters here support Serbia and her rights to Kosovo as much as you are now supporting Georgia with regards to S. Ossetia and Abkhazia?
That statement makes no sense. Are you arguing that their are more conservative soldiers than liberal soldiers? I would strongly disagree, and I beleive the facts prove otherwise.
Futhermore, you cannot support “pre-emptive rights” and hate war more than those that oppose it. It just doesn’t make sense. A preemtive strike is a war act designed to negate the “possibility” of the opposing side’s actions. For all intents and purposes, pre-emptive strikes start wars.
mpChops,
Well, and I hate to use the words, through a materialistic point of view you are right and USA has nothing to gain by helping Georgia. But what USA loses by not helping is its prestige as a world power, as a protector of the weak and the simpathy of the whole eastern europe. The antiamerican phobia didn’t touch eastern europe but with the Georgia debacle things can change.But I imagine this was the thinking back when Hitler invaded Chechoslovakia and then Poland.
From Foxnews: With Europe depending on Russia for a quarter of the oil it consumes — and half of its gas needs — the conflict serves as a vivid demonstration of Russian power in the Caspian region.
If Europe does not respond forcefully here, then Russia can logically assume that further blackmail will work.
sonofdy,
Not the sandbox, A-stan. The appeasers here would have us abandon all of the good people that only want what we want but are not able to protect that right now. We are the protectors, teachers and mentors. As a PRT CDR I dealt with everyone from the smallest farmer to the Ambassador and Vice President. Actually second VP, they have two.
I told you I was supposed to go to Georgia. I am working with people who are being evacuated as we speak. The Georgians are not nameless, faceless entities to us. Maybe we should abandon the US Southwest? I don’t know anyone there. Its no sweat off my nose.
I don’t get these folks. Abstract mind gets it, little ma gets it, what’s wrong with the rest of you. I asked you earlier to do a little research. Too difficult a task I guess. This not only affects Georgia, it affects all of Western Europe. That will affect us. Just like the people here who said that playing chamberlain here will provide the same results as WWII.
11B: I support any war that us troops are being shot at in. Doesn’t mean I agree 100%, just that while troops are in harms way, I am not going to back stab them.
I hear your words. I just don’t think we’re there yet. I think I have said that about 3-4 times. If Europ has a true vested interest in the Oil consumption then they should be the ones to get the ball rolling. I have zero faith that they will do anything. However I don’t believe it is time to step into a country immediately next to Russia which has such large military force and economic strength and then expect us to fight with them and win something other than some kudos.
Missed that. I would not object to going to georgia either.
@sonofdy, I agree with you. I said it before, as a romanian, my heart is breaking when I see the “mighty” USA not capable to help a friend in need:the republic of Georgia and the american people looking the other way. Shamfull.
11B,
Do you know the whole story of Kosovo? I mean going back as far as the Ottoman conquest? I support Serbia keeping Kosovo. Look it up,I hate to say that again, and you will find that the KLA, Kosovar Liberation Army, was the aggressor against Serbia. You will also find that the ones committing genocide were the KLA. They burned churches, towns and intimidated people to move back to Serbia. People who had property that they were living on for many generations were forced off or burned out. No one was lilly white in that altercation but the KLA was pretty awful.
Is this really the way it happened? Was there an election held with the majority voting to secede? So if Michigan decided to secede and asked Canada to back them up we should just let them go? And what about all the money the rest of us have spent on Michigan’s infrastructure? This has gone beyond theoretical folks.
@chep, European Union has no army and no oil. So they are at the mercy of Russia. They are not going to act. They can’t even if they want. The only country that can help Georgia is USA.
I wasn’t referring to materialistic items, such as gold or oil or anything. I’m referring more to the possibility of a global conflict that may occur if the US and Russia directly face off against one another. On the other hand, with inaction, we risk losing prestige, among other things.
The one you put in the middle is the most interesting: Protector of the Weak. How much risk to its security should the US take on to protect the weak outside of it? It’s not really a question that can easily be answered, but I think it’s the guiding question to our actions(or inaction) regarding Georgia.
Bosnia was worse. The stories I heard while I was there. WOW.
At the very least Sec. Rice should be over there to sign an accord. If the Russians escalate this they will be doing so with an official partner. Would they risk a war over this or would decisive action stop this before it builds too much momentum?
It seems that you want to act because you are fearful that inaction would produce a situation that will effect us. That may be true, but acting will
a situation that will directly effect us, and not only in Eastern Europe, but in Afghanistan and Iraq as well.
sonofdy, You’re right. I suppose the Georgians have no option now but to hide in their awe-inspiring mountains and conduct a guerilla war.
I’m so angry! And frustrated because there’s nothing I can do but sit here and watch a country disappear.
Does anyone on this thread know if the ethnic Georgians are descended from the Alans?
Does anyone know what happened to the ethnic Georgians that Putin pushed out of Ossetia and Abkhazia?
Gotta leave for a while. Carry on, son. You’re doing good!
mp,
The Russians are not the juggernaught that many make them out to be. There was a lot of thought put into this operation and they have been planning this for a long time. They have not upgraded their equipment significantly since their defeat in Afghanistan. We bank rupted them and they still have not recovered. There are sanctions that can be put in place and if we take out their Air Superiority, which we can pretty quickly, and assist with protecting the Caspian Coast of Georgia, along with the Black Sea, then we will hurt the Russians to an extent that they will take a long time to recover.
Russia cannot afford an altercation with us either militarily or economically. We are stronger, much stronger, in both cases.
sonofdy can tell stories of the Russians when they were in Bosnia “with” us. They were so under supported that they would come to the PX on their payday and leave with all of the boots, socks, underwear and toiletries that they could get their hands on. Things are not any better now. It will take them a long time to support this operation if we support the Georgians and assist with non troop support.
Goning by the past history of the general region, this is what will happen, it will be bloody, and it will fail. Unless they get outside help.
Saakashvili is a George Soros stooge, and I do not think we should ride to his rescue when he is the one who attacked South Ossetia. South Ossetia has been independent from Georgia (indep 1991) since 1992. Saakashvili attacked and killed Russian troops deployed in South Ossetia since 1992. What would we do if someone did that to us?
It is a VERY bad idea to get involved in the Caucasus region. There are over 40 different languages and dialects and more ethnic groups who all have some reason or another to hate their neighbours. It is not a simple question of democracy-good, Soviets-bad. We cannot go in there to right some wrong because these feuds and injuries go back before the US even existed. There are no good guys here, and Georgian paramilitaries have been just as brutal as anyone else.
Saakashvili’s is not democracies golden boy any more than Izetbegovic was, Ahmad Chalabi, or Aristide that former “courageous reformer” and Haiti’s “best hope”. How many times have we been down this road? When do we refuse to believe that Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia?
I think a little conservative distrust of the government is in order here.
For sonofdy benefit;
p.s. I am off to collect my paycheck from the KGB, I hope they don’t pay me in Rubles.
@mpChops,
Georgia is a friend of USA and US goverment promised their elected leaders help if they are in need. And when they were in need the US goverment was nowhere to be seen.
@speakeasy,
I am afraid that the moment of a decisive action from US in Georgia’s part
is long gone. Where was the Stade Departament when everything started. They slept. If they were to state that Georgia has the right to defend its integrity the russians could have thought more. But well, the president was in Beijing talking to Vladimir Putin, Mrs.Rice was busy with things we don’t know and Georgia was let alone. I must add:it’s an ilusion the fact that the russians are going to be happy just making Georgia again part of its sphere of influence. Other former soviet republics are going to follow. And some of them are NATO countries. What is US going to do then? Send an envoy?
Those poor bastards. The serbs were almost better off. When we went to thier camps we took mre’s. When they came to our camps, they ate anything they could get thier hands on.
You guys can’t be serious. Look, as I have said, I am not fully versed on the nuances of this conflict, but to suggest we send troops into Georgia against Russian troops is absoutley insane. Now, if it was Austria or France, heck yea. There is no debating the right move there. But this is not so clear cut.
The Russian military is a well equipped well trained fighting force with all the technology backing to boot. We are already stretched thin in afghanistan and iraq. Where would we get new troops? Much less troops ready to deploy in such a short period of time. Look, something that stupid could easily escalate into a full blown war between 2 nuclear powers (I hope nobody is under the impression Russia no longer has nuclear weapons ready). To just jump feet first in this conflict would be a monumental mistake that would destabilize the world. Russia is not someone you want to fight even when your army is at its peak. Diplomacy is our only option here. And, FTR, I am not some russian “propoganda spreader”. It is ridiclous to even make that asinine statement. I understand where many of you are coming from but the statement above was way over the line of any rational course of action.
sharrukin: the next username you should use probably shouldn’t have a syrian or turkish link to it. Thanks.
The situation seems to deteriorate with every passing hour:
“Georgia’s president says Russia’s troops have effectively cut the country in half by seizing a strategic city that straddles the country’s main east-west highway. A a top official at the Georgian embassy in Moscow, Givi Shugarov, said Russian troops appeared to be moving toward Tbilisi and he alleged Russia’s goal was “complete liquidation” of the Georgian government.”
Source: http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D92G8DKO0&show_article=1
When this thing started I was quite certain that the Russians would try to capture South Ossetia, leave the rest of Georgia alone and install some sort of puppet government in South Ossetia. Now, I am not so certain anymore. It looks as if they were actually planning to seize the whole country and topple the government. What a catastrophy for the people of Georgia…
Will you be satisfied with simply protecting Georgia if Russian forces were to attack Americans? I doubt that the aggressive nature of the ruling party, and those that support it, will allow a Russian attack on American forces to go unanswered. Essentially, I don’t believe what you suggest can be done with the neccessary restraint it’d require.
Weary Citizen: The time to send troops was Friday. Its too late now. All we could do is send the air force, but even that would be too little, too late. Georgia is doomed. The only think we can do is prevent the next “georgia”.
I apologize for quoting my aunt but she summed it up well:
The damage to our message of “we are with you” that we projected for 40 to 50 years from Eisenhower to Kennedy to Johnson to Nixon to Ford to Carter to Reagan to Bush. And the continuation after the Soviet Union broke up to say “we include you” for the last 17 years with Clinton and Bush; to have all that turned back but with the caveat that when the going got tough, when Russia pushed again we wobbled; for that to be the new historical message, is such a dangerous, undermining and internationally weakening position, I can’t believe we will chose to follow such a message and allow it to happen. It will harm us message-wise, economically, militarily – we won’t be trusted or have our world view desired if we allow ourselves or Europe to stab these countries in the back. It may be starting with Georgia, but does anyone think it will stop there if Russia is allowed to prevail?
ChrisFromGermany: Sucks to see this and know nothing will stop it. A german can tell you how much “fun” it is to be invaded by russians.
It looks like Israel is going to abandon Georgia. They are suspending arms sales.
I will take your word for it. I just don’t know enough about the area to say this is a disaster or not. I don’ trust Putin though. He is aggressive and my father-in-law (a Czech) said when Putin came to power, that Russia would move back to communism. We have to wait and see if Georgia gets absorbed into greater russia or if Russia simply pulls back when conflicts are over to the region it started in. I am doubtful but all we can do is see. My point has always been on this though, that a direct military conflict with Russia is a VERY serious undertaking and could end very badly for everyone. One mis-step, taken in the wrong way by either side could result in the unthinkable. That’s all.
11B, well sending arms to Georgia would be sending arms to Russia. Not suprised.
@sonofdy,
True. And what was US goverment doing on friday? Oh, I forgot. The olympics started and president Bush talked to mr.Putin.
That is going to be a tricky thing to do. Who in the East Europe is going to trust US to help them to prevent the next anexation move?
Can’t argue with that.
I do believe that we are fully capable of surgical strikes against sea, air, and land assets. Someone needs to stand up to Putin and make it abundantly clear that he cannot do this.
A previous poster talked about S. Ossetia holding elections to gain independence. I can agree with that. I am very certain that the separatist movement was supported by the Russians and that this operation has been in the works for a long time.
The poster who said the Russians are very well trained and equipped is correct if he is talking about the elite troops. The rest are not. I know from Bosnia rotations where I saw first hand how well they were trained and supported.
Weary Citizen I think you have laid the truth out quite well. I could not see anything that I disagree with. Whether or not someone perceives Russia as a “juggernaut” is not a reason to distance yourself from them and discard their opinions -as someone has strongly suggesting with their words. I too believe it would be a losing battle and for no gain. Europe should be paying close attention to this a lot more than the US. We are at odds with other things which keep us busy. We do not have the substantial evidence or reason to try and convince all of the US to engage in a military war with a nuclear powered enemy on such grounds just yet. A lot of people are adamantly against the was in Iraq and Afghanistan already. To expect the general populace to willingly fit the bill and the young soldiers in this incident is a stretch of reality. I believe it would be political suicide for McCain or Obama to suggest such a move. In addition to the fact that I don’t believe it warrants such a move just yet.
Who in the East Europe is going to trust US to help them to prevent the next anexation move?
——-
Fast trak all ex-soviet republics application to join NATO??
I know Armenia and azerbaijan are probably feeling nervous right now.
Meanwhile, Code Pink, Cindy Sheehan, and every other armpit-braiding, unwashed hippie “anti-war” type, American or European, is maintaining a curious SILENCE about the Russians’ indiscriminate air attacks against civilians. Or for that matter, Georgian indiscriminate shelling of civilians in South Ossetia.
No protest marches, no vigils in front of embassies or consulates, no nuthin’.
Fact is, the only wars such protesters are “anti” about are the ones WE fight, ones upon which they impose impossibily high standards, but only on OUR troops.
Chep,
You are right to see this as a VERY serious undertaking. And I am not saying that it would be a cake walk. I am saying we can supply Georgia with updated arms and supplies and let them fight the ground war while we fly cover for them. They are more than willing to fight and fight they are.
To allow the meglamaniac Putin to get away with this is crazy. You are right about the europeans. However the europeans had the mighty US backing them and did not build as large a military as we had during the cold war and they don’t have even a 20th of what we have now. Germany cannot stand up a corps if they wanted to. Same with France. Britain has to rob from one Division to outfit the other being mobilized. The socialist countries who had no desire to go back to colonialism relied on US too protect them and used the “dividend” to maintain small armies, navies, and airforces while they spent their money elsewhere. We are needed but they too need to take responsibility. This will affect them much quicker than us.
I just don’t like going to their country, training them their and here in Germany, being their friend and big brother and then saying “the Russians are coming, good luck with that. We’ll stand over here and see how things work out.”
need to use the preview key. appologize for the misspellings.
Us telling other countries who to invade and who not to invade is comical
I’m with you. I was stationed in Germany 1990-1992. I know very well what you speak of. Lots of Europeans still view the US in disdain as we protect their interests abroad. Time for them to protect their own for once.
Fox has announced that the Russians are within 35 miles of Tblisi.
expat and sonofdy:
Just finished catching up on this thread. My God! The appeasers are swarming out of the woodwork!
Weary Citizen, the Russians aren’t quite as powerful as you think. (Read comments by expat and sonofdy.) They’re bullies, picking on a weak little country.
One by one, Putin will take back all the little countries that were formerly in the USSR, while the citizens of the so-called free world cower under the covers, wetting their pants in fear.
Disgraceful!
– expat
Agreement on both points. On a previous thread related to this topic, I noted that only last year did the Russian army start to modernize. Most combat units haven’t received new equipment since the end of the Cold War, and so far, all additional money has been going into increasing pay for the troops (many of whom were being paid sporadically, if at all). They have a huge morale and readiness problem, and the recent Chechen ugliness highlighted that.
As chep said, the Georgians brought the initial retaliation on themselves, however the Russians have now responded all out of proportion, driving (against their stated intentions) out of the Ossetian and Abkhazian regions into the rest of Georgia. I can understand a nation reponding to attacks on its citizens, but the Russian response is now far beyond the pale.
So the question falls to “what next?”
I question the wisdom of airstrikes on Russian forces. I don’t disagree that we’re capable of conducting them, but to what end? Airstrikes alone are unlikely to stop a Russian ground offensive, and will almost certainly result in a general war with Russia. Moreover, military involvement against Russia would be a boon to the Islamists, taking attention off of the war we’re fighting (successfully!) against them.
I don’t think we can afford to involve ourselves militarily, without full cooperation from the remainder of NATO. Too many of our resources are already tied up.
fulldroolcup – #180, full agreement. Of course, some people here seem blind to Georgia’s shelling of civilians too.
All good points. One exception for me. If we were to “fly cover” for the Georgian troops, there would be major loss of planes on one side or the other. Ignoring the highly sophisticated anti aircraft SAM’s Russia possesses, if a russian aircraft shoots down one of our planes, what would be our response? Declare war? It is highly likely Russia would view this as an act of war and declare one based solely on our military being so close to its own borders. We have never engaged Russia directly in warfare, but this would end that drought. In either case, I think this course of action has only one outcome. And that is all out war. Not a regional conflict like Iraq is. But a real escalation to the seas as well, with the world taking up sides.
We’ve had our 9-11 and the Russians had theirs. It was in Beslan on September 1, 2004 and that school massacre isn’t something easily forgotten.
There are many reasons for Russia going into Georgia, many we can only guess at but I’d have to say this response to Beslan was a long time in coming.
We may have forgotten but the Russians have long memories. They extracted their due on Germany and will do so for Beslan.
What are the ethnic demographics of that area?
Agreed 100%. I forgive the people who are intent on using that to form their personal attacks.
Having served in the military for 7 years including some time during the small fights in Mogadishu Somalia during the early 1990s I have come to respect the work the soldiers do. In light of that I also believe that our politicians and the President should move carefully on this. We don’t need World War III. I think that this situation will simmer down after a couple of weeks. When Russia attacks someone else along their border unprovoked then I will have reason for concern.
– WearyCitizen
I fear you are right. Lest there be any doubt, that’s the likely end result of the use of the US military against Russia. They are as proud a people as we are, and cannot see them tolerating an attack by US forces on their military without going to war. . .