Is Georgia in 2008 like Hungary in 1956?
I’ve said before that America needs to take up for her allies. It keeps the world safe:
The world works as well as it does–and, granted, that’s pretty marginal–in large part because the United States guarantees the security of its allies. Places like Taiwan and South Korea churn out magic toilets and miniature automobiles knowing that the United States will respond to incursions and aggression with overwhelming and sustained force. So far, our defense of the fledgling Iraqi government has confirmed that arrangement.
America does what it says. If you have an American security guarantee–and I’m looking at you,Saudi Arabia and Pakistan–you don’t need to build a nuclear arsenal. America honors its commitments, and the world keeps ticking–well, arrhythmically stuttering, anyhow–because there are big U.S. guns ready to retaliate against aggression. No better friend. No worse enemy. If America is backing you, you’re golden.
Unless I’m mistaken, we’ve signed no security guarantees with Georgia. But we are discussing bringing them into NATO, we’re training and supplying their soldiers, and they’ve been fighting in Iraq on our side.
So we’re not bound to do anything to help Georgia–except by our commitment to supporting freedom and opposing tyranny around the world. We’ve staked much of our identity as a nation on exactly that commitment, and as Georgian President Saakashvili notes, our reputation is under scrutiny:
If Georgia falls, this will also mean the fall of the West in the entire former Soviet Union and beyond. Leaders in neighboring states — whether in Ukraine, in other Caucasian states or in Central Asia — will have to consider whether the price of freedom and independence is indeed too high.
________________________________
We’ve faced such a situation before, and we chose, I think, quite poorly. We promised too much, and we delivered too little.
In 1956, Hungary was a member of the Warsaw Pact. After Stalin’s death, when Krushchev came to power, there was a bit of liberalization in Russia and Hungary picked up on that. In fact, they decided, spontaneously, to have a revolution and kick the commies out. Which they did, smashing the statue of Stalin in the process*, until Russia said “oh no you didn’t” and marched back in on November 4th and took it over again, with much repression and execution in their wake.
The story of the 1956 Hungarian Revolution is laid out here. This assessment bears excerpting:
Although the governments of the free world watched the Hungarian Revolution with deep admiration, they never seriously considered providing military support, nor condemnation strong enough to stop the brutal actions of the Soviet Union.
However, the heroes of 1956 did not die or suffer in vain. They demonstrated such uncommon bravery, such a universal yearning for freedom from foreign tyranny, that the whole world was forced to see the true face of communism at last.
If it is condemnation of Russian aggression that may make a difference, we’ll have plenty of that. Russia is, as Saakashvili notes, at war with Georgia, and their war has spread far beyond South Ossetia and into the rest of the country. Putin’s transparent rationalizations hide an avaricious agenda of conquest, and he must be opposed. We see the true face of Putin at last, and he’s every bit as ugly as the totalitarian Evil Empire which proceeded him (to which he bears an unmistakable family resemblance.)
Russia’s attacks are not only without justification, but they’re also indiscriminate and far out of any doctrine of proportion. No imminent threat justifies their actions. Nothing except a desire to punish and subjugate Georgia motivates their shelling of civilian targets far from South Ossetia. Russia should be ashamed of itself and of its leader.
I hope this naked aggression backfires on Russia like their catastrophic invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. They poured blood and treasure into that project for years, and earned the world’s opprobrium even as they hastened their empire’s downfall through their folly. We helped that defeat happen, of course, and I want to see us help out again.
Exactly how we do so…well, that’s the tough part, isn’t it?
On the other hand: one controversial detail of the uprising is whether or not Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty had extended false hope to the revolutionaries of military relief from America and/ or the U.N. A contemporary analysis of RFE/RL programmimg (available in pdf here) suggests there is some truth to that charge.
We must be careful in Georgia not to repeat that mistake. We must not bluff, and we can’t promise or imply what we will not back up. The stakes are too high.
But they’re too high to do nothing, as well.
*The Times of London article linked above notes that a statue of Stalin still stands in the town of Gori, Georgia –because it’s Stalin’s birthplace. No wonder Putin wants it back. It’s like Mount Vernon for him.
______________________________
{Post by See-Dubya.} Some more good points here at the Sundries Shack and at Ace’s. Oh, and once again, Tom Clancy’s writing…well, a Clancy-branded video game…feels eerily prophetic about world events.
I don’t like it when Clancy proves prophetic about world events. They’re never nice events.
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More so. Chechenia was never a republic of the former Soviet Union. Geogia was as was Armenia or Ukraine.
expat,
Yes, I see where you’re going. If I were to plan such an interdiction, I’d do just as you suggested. But at the same time, you must recognize that where you’re going is down the road to general war with Russia.
From every description I’ve read of the situation so far, the Georgians are also firing from their cities and towns, at the separatists, and later at the Russians from the same positions. Again, the bad behavior appears to be going both ways. . . and I don’t see how it’s possible to rationalize it away for one side, and not the other.
sonofdy…
I have been called a fascist by leftist liberals so I was hoping to be accused by a right-wing liberal of being a ‘dirty commie’. Being called a Syrian is so pedestrian. Oh well.
For historical interest;
North Ossetia/Alania first came under Russian rule in 1767.
The Ossetians first became part of the Russian Empire in 1774 following the Russo-Turkish War (1768–1774). The Treaty of Küçük Kaynarca gave Russia control of the Kabard’s, Ossetians and the important Dariel Pass.
The king of East Georgia (Kartli-Kakheti) asked the Russians in 1801 for help against the Persians and was rewarded by annexation from Tsar Paul. In 1810 Western Georgia (Imereti) was also annexed.
In 1917 following the collapse of Imperial Russia the Ossetians and Georgians went to war with thousands killed. In March of 1918, the entire area was declared an autonomous soviet republic, and in January of 1920, it was renamed the Mountain Autonomous Republic. In 1922 Ossetia was divided and North Ossetia became an autonomous republic of Russia and South Ossetia became an autonomous district of Georgia. In 1936, North Ossetia was made an autonomous republic.
South Ossetia lost its autonomous region status by an act of the Georgian Supreme Soviet in 1990. Following Georgia’s independence from the Soviet Union, Ossetian nationalists in the South demanded either independence from Georgia or incorporation into North Ossetia-Alania. In April, 1992, the South Ossetian Autonomous Region was reestablished in Georgia. Fighting in the region between Georgian and Ossetian forces was ended by a truce in July, which left South Ossetia under the control of the Ossetians. Russian troops have been there ever since.
I do not see much of a Georgian claim to South Ossetia here!
It is simple. Who has forgien troops on thier land? The Georgians.
QED.
– expat
You know as well as I, that you don’t move 500 freaking tanks and their logisitical supply line anywhere without sufficient anti-air defenses going along for the ride. And if they got 500 tanks into Georgia this fast (which I found a bit suprising, frankly), I have no doubt those anti-air defenses are in place as well.
Now that’s a rather extraordinary claim, chep. Got anything at all to back it up with?
Perhaps it’s that simple to you sonofdy, but it’s certainly not that simple to many of the rest of us, who don’t place a higher value on one set of civilians than another.
Exactly why I believe the Georgians are the instigators.
sharrukin: The mutliple username trick does not fool me. South Ossetia is legaly GEORGIAN land. Don’t believe me? Ask the UN.
This is no so much Hungary 1956 is it is the Sudeten in 1938.
Do we now stop Putin’s ultra-nationalist agression (like Hitler/Germany), or do we continue to equivocate and appease?
What’s it going to be? To Putin’s Hitler in the Sudeten, do we roll over and play Chamberlain or do we stand up to be Churchill?
That logic would make the north the instigators of the american civil war. Fact is Georgia move to reclaim its land which is legal under international law, then the russians used it as a pretext to take all of Georgia, which is not.
Interesting. I still could not see how direct air to air conflict would not lead to some US planes and possibly many Russian planes being shot down. Its not liek they are flying WWI bi planes or anything. They still have jets and quite a few of them. And remember the Wermacht Field Marshall in Stalingrad. In a letter to his wife before the Stalingrad assault he said “we are like an elephant in an ant bed. We will stomp and kill millions of them, but in the end the numbers will overwhelm us”.
BTW, your earlier post with the comment on the “poke in the eye” was excellent read and gives good food for thought. I admit though, I am much more inclined to help a christian nation out over a muslim one. I am sure that is biggoted or whatever, but I don’t care. I prdict we will only get a “poke in the eye” from all the “innocent” muslim nations in the end anyway.
The Georgians did not permit investigation and prosecution of Pankisi rebels in the past. From their point of view the unprovoked attacks on the Russian soldiers is a major problem and instability. Whether that is a direct connection to rebels (reports are that it was and was not) is not completely clear. Nevertheless Russia views this as an act of agression and is responding to protect what they see as citizens of their country. Something a lot more justified than Georgians since they have issued passports to the citizens and also have had military there since 1992. The recent attack is irresponsible and can also be viewed as an act of war by anyone.
Legal ownership is a majority of who is in possession. Russia has been there for a long time.
You liberals always want to go snivelling to the UN whenever anything happens. when was the last time those losers accomplished anything but handwringing?
multiple username’s?
BTW; what is my secret code name?
———–
If that were true them large portions of the border states would belong to mexico.
Mexicans have more rights than I do down there. Seems like a much wiser war for the US to be engaged in anyhow. Seeing that it’s right there.
Also since the Mexican army crosses the border into the US regularly.
Right, clemy. And I’m sure you saw this coming, eh? It happened pretty fast with no advance warning. The only ones who could have anticipated this were you and Miss Cleo.
Interesting. I still could not see how direct air to air conflict would not lead to some US planes and possibly many Russian planes being shot down.
Still not seeing much in the way of actual evidence here, just claims. But supposing this to be true, and not just Russia’s side of the story, shouldn’t the Russians be invading Pankisi Gorge instead of Ossetia?
“Being there” does not equal possession. We have military presence galore in (to name a few) Germany, Japan, Korea, Iraq, and Afghanistan, but that doesn’t give us any “possession” in any of those places, and those countries retain their full sovereignty over their territory.
Let me clear here. I think you may see me coming from a differnt angle than I intend. I am not one of the code pink morons who thinks we should have pillow fights so no on gets hurt. My angle was not the casualties becasue, you are correct, casualties are the end result of war. What I was getting at is that there would be planes shot down leading to escalations that could esaily spriral out of control. As soon as a plane was shot down, the government is required to make a decision: fromally declare war or not. I don’t see how we could avoid declaring war if our planes are being shot down. Likewise, Russia would make a declaration of war when one its military planes was shot down on a battlefied for sure. Which leads to further escalations and so on. All I was saying is the inevitable conclusion of an air campaign directly supporting Georgia is full scale war between 2 nuclear power heavyweights. With the ending not being pretty under any scenario.
I suppose we shuold be invading Pakistan then?
There is a clear distinction that they handed out passports and invite them as citizens. Not a good example you use there.
Some of you people are just part of the mob mentality. I am about as right wing as they get. The difference is that I am not knee jerk minded enough to suggest we embrace world war III in response to battles in an unstable region where we have little to gain and little business meddling in. I think we should tend to our business near home. When Russia enters Western Europe or another country unprovoked I will be worried.
I am not accusing you of being a code pink moron who engages in pillow fights. Although if the description fit it would make you the most macho code pinker out there.
I see your point but my gut feeling is that Putin is a bully and if he gets popped in the nose he will back down.
I base that on his KGB back groung where he was allowed to operate with no fear of reprisals. No one has challenged him since his rise to power. He runs roughshod over his own country and now he is running roughshod over Georgia.
Methinks that someone standing up to him will be a first and I am not sure he will know how to handle it. I am very certain that the Russian people and the non Putin politicians are not very happy with his actions.
Just my take on it.
LOL. I understand what you are saying now. It would ba calcualted risk, but if calculated and executed well, would be by far the best solution. I am not sure though. I think the RUssians are itching to become a super power again and this could provide the impetus of consolidating his power and solidifying the support of Russians through nationalistic fervor. Again, all depends on the calcualted risk taht he will back down.
Yep, that is what I am trying to say. It will take a lot of planning, intel collecting and study of the pulse of the people in Russia. Based on Putin putting down the free press, nationalizing businesses belonging to people he does not like and who are challenging him, my take is that they would not be unhappy to see him go and a loss in Georgia could be the impetus to rally the people and the gov’t to get rid of him.
Yes, I know he controls the organized crime rings, the internal security aparatus and rules through fear. But, an enraged populace will overmatch those elements. I know, how do we get the populace enraged? That is something to work out in the future. I am just laying out a strategy.
– WearyCitizen
Signs point to no. If a rocket attack on Russian citizens outside their own territory is all it took to cause them to go to war against Georgia, doesn’t it follow that an attack on their territory by the USA, who they know is heavily committed elsewhere, will provoke an even stronger reaction from the Russians?
expat,
I wouldn’t be so quick to judge the Russians as eager to see Putin go. Throughout Russia’s history, nationalism has tended to trump such concerns as market freedom and individual rights. I fear American involvement at this point might actually consolidate support for Putin and his cronies, rather than weaken it.
Sorry, in #228, I meant to say an attack on their armed forces, not their territory.
Yash,
You make a point that I pointed to at the end of my last post. However, the world has run from Russia/Soviet Union for decades until Ronald Reagan. Judging from when Russia/Soviet Union was stood up to, Putin can be backed down.
Listening to the Bush Speech and the talking heads afterwards maybe it is time that we along with France and possibly others are going to call Putin on his dare.
Could go either way. We should not allow Russia to dictate to us what the rules are and how the game will be played. It is time we got some back bone and make judicous decisions. I am not for flying off of the handle, but I am unwilling to let them dictate to us, which they are doing.
Based on what I can gather, I firmly beleive the best route at this point is diplomacy. I doubt it will do much good but the risk of an all out war and the consequences of such a war are far to great. This is no time to draw a line in the sand. Now, if Russia foolishly tries to put nukes in Cuba again, then the line must be drawn. And they will back down again. We would not back down on the threats on our own continent from Russia, just as Russia will not back down fomr threats so close to their home. They are threatening the Czech Republic over the missile shield. So why would they back down on this when Georgia borders them and they feel Georgia was the aggressor? I just don’t see it yet. But hey I am a simple peon with no power so who cares what I think.
Poti seems to have fallen to the russian invaders.
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/103/the-putin-popularity-score
Just a little article on Putin’s popularity at home. Apparently, some 75% of the population trust him to do the right thing, foreign policy-wise.
I don’t think that we can afford to hope that he’ll be unseated by a Russian popular uprising.
Maybe, just maybe, Bush means to call Putin’s bluff.
Interesting info at Georgia Embassy’s website:
http://embassy.mfa.gov.ge/
To email: Scroll to bottom of page; link at bottom right.
@Little Ma
re: “Does anyone on this thread know if the ethnic Georgians are descended from the Alans?”
–this was actually answered in a lengthy post above about the history of Ossetia, but to answer you directly: It is the Ossetian ethnics who are the decendents of the Alans. Georgian ethnics are… Georgian.
Hope that helps.
I found a link that might explain some of what is going on in Georgia. Like everyone here I’m trying to make sense of this. There have been tensions since 1990 and it looks like this ‘fight’ has been brewing for some time. This article in the link is from May of this year. Something triggered the Russians to do this now.
http://www.slate.com/id/2191588/entry/2191589/
-DownDiver
1) Sitting US President is a lame duck
2) World is distracted by the Olympics
3) US military resources are stretched by two regional conflicts.
4) Georgia gave them an excuse.
The combination of these for makes the timing serendipitous indeed for the Russians.
for=four
Then let these new citizens move to their new country. But it’s ludicrous to suggest that handing out passports to people in other countries entitles you to those countries’ territory. There’s no principle in international law that justifies that.
You’re saying a hell of a lot more than that. You said, “To me the action they [the Russians] have taken is justified.” You’re entitled to that opinion, however shaky the ground it rests on, but it’s disingenuous to pretend that you’re doing nothing more than advocating nonintervention.
At 6:06 pm, LDG said, re: Alans
Oh, thanks. I haven’t had time to catch up on all the posts, but I’ll read the referenced one now. I ran across the Alans a few years ago when I was reading a history of ancient Mother Russia, but further info about them sort of dried up. That was before I had a computer. Maybe I can find a couple of good books online now. Any suggestions? I’m not a student; I just like history.
@Little Ma
re: suggested reading — It is a little old to find, but the work of Bernard S. Bachrach around 1970 is considered solid work by an American researcher. His “History of the Alans in the West–” can still be found on Amazon dot com if you search for his books by name. (His focus is on their interaction with Europe, though.)
Sadly, I have no accounts to hand of the more modern history of the Alan peoples. Hope this is at least a start for you.
Love the connection to Hungary. I hope we do stand up for Georgia but in a limited amount. It will be increasingly tough to stand up to Russia as it becomes richer and I think we should think through these things especially because we are spread out sort of thinly already.
Why did Georgia attack first though? They stand no chance. Are they leveraging the attention they can get with the Olympics?
http://www.pmond.blogspot.com
Why would we want to stand up for a country that started a war by either killing its own people (assuming the South Ossetians are Georgians) or by killing citizens of another nation (assuming the South Ossetians are not Georgian).
The Georgians are not the good guys here.
The fact that Georgia sent a few troops to Iraq to curry favor with the US is meaningless. They are not a US ally and if they were, we don’t need allies that go out of their way to stir up the Russians..
“Something triggered the Russians to do this now”
Duh, yeah, the Georgians went on a killing spree in South Ossetia.
What we ever do if democracy were to be rolled back in the glorious former republics that seem bent on electing nothing but radical islamists (just like Egypt, Jordan, and Gaza?) Its almost certainly better for Putin and Russia to have a strong hand in Central Asia instead of the tinpot dictators that run the place now…
LDG, Thanks so much! I’ll look for Bachrach’s “History…” today.
Pmond,
Georgia was provoked by Russian backed separatists. The Russian units were infiltrated to the border over time under the auspices of peace keepers. The separatists attacked targets in Georgia at a time when world attention was on the Olympics. The Georgians went to put down the insurrection and the Russians drove in to “protect the Russian people of Ossetia.” This was a
Russian set up.
cristomer,
see above. Killing spree? The only killing spree I see is the Russians heading to Tblisi. They have commited more damage and killed many more people than the Georgians. Putin is a product of the KGB and he will orchestrate this to the utmost to make it look like the Georgians are the aggressors. Not really.
Little ma,
Good evening. At least it is for me. Have a good day.
expat,
Have a restful evening. Catch you later today.
The naivete and complete lack of understanding of the military by many in this comments section is staggering.
Even if the reports of Georgia “starting” this by shelling Russians in South Ossetia were true, do you at least comprehend that there is no possible way that Russia could have launched so complete and devastating a *mechanized* attack on Georgia in so little time? Even if the Georgians were the first to initiate hostilities, there is absolutely no accounting of how the Russians were able to respond so quickly with troop movements that simply cannot happen overnight.
I’m an armor officer in the U.S. Army and I can tell you from personal experience that conducting an assault of this magnitude in such a compressed timeline is an absolute impossibility. Go back and read up on Operation Desert Shield/Desert Storm for a basic application of the constraints and limitations of mechanized warfare. This was clearly planned, resourced and orchestrated in advance.
You folks ought to spend a little less time spouting empty platitudes on the internet and spend more time doing some basic research and executing some rational thought on this. You’re clearly not able to carry on an intelligent debate on this subject given your paltry knowledge and comprehension of what goes into the conduct of mechanized warfare.
This is a good place to start:
http://www.armchairgeneral.com/assault-on-georgia-exclusive-military-analysis-on-south-ossetia-conflict.htm
In short, save some of your outrage for those who are really responsible for this crisis and gain some understanding about the region and its people before being so quick to jump to conclusions.
Maj Kirk,
Glad to have you aboard. I will counsel you to not get too disheartened with the rank and file in the US. They are uneducated and have no idea of what they speak. Not sure how far you are in your career but I teach ILE and this is the scenario that we utilize. I have been looking at this for a few years now and my take is that we allow the bear to get away with these intrusions and are too scared to stand up. Basically the US populace is willing to be bullied because they are becoming soft.
I am sure you have deployed like I have and are not willing to be bullied. It is going to take a lot to get the US mobilized and focused. I post here and there are those who say that we are fully mobilized. They don’t know what that entails. Look at WWII. They have it easy.
Try to educate them and don’t get discouraged. We armor types need to band together.
Keep up the good work.
Ps. Check out my posts. I am with you and they have no basis to start from. Also the bear is not that strong. If you did a Bosnia/Kosovo tour you will know that.
Thanks, expat. Three-tour veteran of OIF with 3ID and 1ID here. But even without the combat experience, it doesn’t take a degree in rocket science to know that you just can’t move, shoot, communicate and resupply the armored columns, troops, and aircraft the Russians have without coordinating well in advance.
Hell- when I was a LT in the mid-90′s, my battalion had a hard enough time getting our butts to the NTC at Fort Irwin in the 10-12 month prep/deployment timeline laid out for us to get there. Now, you’re telling me that the Russian Army can drive deep into the heart of Georgia as a result of “shelling” of barracks in Ossetia? Yeah, um…OK.
I will take your advice on this one, though. As disappointed as I am in some of my countrymen who are so quick to espouse opinions about things they know nothing of, and have zero inclination educate themselves on. It’s far easier to simply copy and paste the parrot press corps talking points rather than look closely at the hard evidence that this was a calculated invasion strategy on the part of Russia.
Oh, yeah- did a 6-month turn in Bosnia in ’97 as well and even had an opportunity to work directly with a Russian airborne (BMD) battalion. So, yes- I know exactly what you mean about training, discipline and operational readiness (equipment).
The Russian bear is back. The timing of this war could not have been better. Winter is approaching in Europe and they need the oil and gas from Russia. The Olympics has created a popular diversion. The Bush presidency is coming to an end. Great opportunity to check out Obama as well.
Major Kirk and expat,
God bless you guys. You know what you’re talking about. I get so exasperated with wimpy Americans who ain’t got a clue!
We lived in Germany five years among Army people, and my kids thought of themselves as Army Brats. Later I worked for the Third Army, then FORSCOM. (Yeah, I know the Third Army thing dates me. I’m old.) My sister worked for ASA for years. I have friends permanently stationed in Arlington.
Go Army!!
That wasn’t a military analysis by Ralph Peters. That was a polemic.
As a military analysis it was one of the sloppiest ones I have ever seen. He doesn’t actually ‘analyse’ anything. Georgia was left with 200 tanks from the old Soviet arsenal and received 175 tanks from the Ukraine and elsewhere. 375 tanks. We have reports that Georgia has 126 tanks. What happened to the rest? How many are down for maintenance, or were they scrapped. Are the rest in storage? Why the hell does Georgia have only 7 (BBC report) combat aircraft as reported if they own a bloody aircraft factory? More like 35+ SU-25’s, with 22 currently in service and 13 others of unknown status. The answer? Tbilisi Aerospace Manufacturing (TAM) of Georgia seems to be no longer producing Su-25’s. They are upgrading though. The Elbit Su-25KM Scorpion upgrade. How capable is it?
The answers to these questions and more would have made it a military analysis. In its place we get just a spruced up op-ed piece.
Russia had already conducted military exercises just as across the border.
Ralph Peters forgets that to “replace deadlined vehicles, perform pre-combat maintenance of the rest, distribute full combat loads of ammunition (beyond what was already on the tanks and other armored vehicles), shift troops between garrisons, deploy forward logistics elements, and disseminate tactical plans…” are all part of preparing for a military exercise ‘Caucasus Frontier 2008′ which involved units of the North Caucasus Military District, mainly the 58th Army, the 4th Air Force Army, Interior Ministry troops, and border guards.
This was counter-poised by a NATO-Ukrainian naval exercise “Exercise Sea Breeze 2008″ (SB08) ending July 28th. A joint US-Georgian land force exercise “Immediate Response 2008″ took place in July as well as the planned exercise “Georgian Express 2008”, which was slotted for September. Plans for “Georgian Express 2008” are likely on hold.
The “vastly better prepared, better trained and better organized” American military has a weakness and that is operational inflexibility. With such a large logistical tail comes a greater need to plan and co-ordinate a greater number of disparate elements. This takes time and careful planning. A less elaborately equipped force correspondingly needs less preparation. This is why insurgent forces can almost always outperform more heavily equipped troops. Hence the need for light forces to deal with them.
In addition, no competent military DOES NOT have contingency plans for a great deal of eventualities, much less one where border skirmishing has already taken place. They would be grossly incompetent if they didn’t. We certainly have such plans in place.
Ralph Peters is playing the hack here!
Wow. Your complete arrogance is amazing. First, because you are a gunner does not make you a military strategist or a political expert (and beleive it or not politics is what starts wars not hte military). Hell, I can shoot a rifle pretty well. But that deos not make me a bear hunting expert. Second, this is a BLOG. That means it is here for people to state their opinions even if those opinions suck. It is not your repsonsiblity to monitor that. If you have pertinanet information that might help educate then share it. Otherwise, STFU. Thrid, I read the article you posted. Had some interesting points. But like some of the posters there said, you have to be stupid to not beleive Russia did not have battle plans and strategies in place for an invasion even before Georgia even moved into the region. I mean come on. There has been conflict around those areas going back to the 90′s. What kind of military staff would not have a plan in place to quickly take out strategic targets and routes for troop and amrment movement. Not to mention, having a sizeable force close to the area. Now, I agree that Russia probably provoked the whole incident. They needed the excuse to go in for 2 reasons. 1) regain some of their former empire 2) to show the world they are still a mjor player and not to be messed with. Finally, so what is your plan? You just rambled how nobody else knows anything. If your plan is to send troops and military weapons into the region and openly engage Russia, then you need to have your head examined. A 90% chance that leads to all out war (probably with a declaration of war by Russia to boot). That is on their border and they will not take kindly to US military being on their border fighting with their perceived enemy. And as the guy in the article points out. They may be clumsy and not use the best tactics, they use a sledge hammer and bulldoze. In other words, they have sufficent armments and personnel to inflict amjor damage on ANY military WW. Additaionlly, we are stretched thin due to other engagements. So just wehre will we get the ground forces necessary to open a 3rd front? Russia also possesses the raw materials and factories to produce their own armaments in a drawn out war. Now, could we defeat them in a conventiaonl war. Most likely. However, that brings me to the final point. Thye have something called inter-continental ballistic nuclear missiles. So if you have any bright ideas of sending a few tomahawks (or whatever) over Russian soil if it does become an all out war, then you better think again. Becasue that is the exact kind of misinterpretation of our intentions that could easily lead to nuclear strikes. They don’t knwo what is on the missile jsut that it is in the air. So they could easily say it is a nuclear strike and get an itchy triger finger. Look, this is not an easy situation to reolve. But out right confrontation with someone like Russia is a very very dangerous risk. Even if you win, there is a chance you lose.
Don’t worry, It always helps if you just look out at us and pretend that we dont have any clothes on… (well im sure some of them really dont..lol) We all had a first post too. Welcome!
*Chuckles*
Only in America I guess do you spend 14 years of your life serving and defending the right to free speech only to be told to STFU by some internet tough guy.
Weary Citizen- There are two types of people in the world: Those who talk out of their behinds and then cry and whine about their right to an opinion, and those who admit that their knowledge in certain areas is lacking and go out and try to educate themselves so that the basis for their opinions can be stronger. Which one are you?
Now, I admit that I’m one of those knuckle-dragger military types who had nothing else but an army career to fall back on because I wasn’t intelligent enough to make it in the *real* world, but I know what I know, and that is simply, no matter how many “contingencies” the Russians may have had, there is no possible way they could have launched so comprehensive and coordinated an attack without planning for one months if not years in advance. Now, before you start bloviating again, why don’t you tell the rest of us what makes *you* such an expert in armored warfare and the enormous logistical tail that employing a mere battalion of tanks involves let alone multiple mechanized brigades and divisions? Do you even know the difference between a battalion, brigade and division?
As for what I would have done, well- I was never advocating putting American troops on the ground in Georgia in the first place, but Russia understands force, so I would have moved a carrier group into striking range and perhaps sent some squadrons of naval fighters into Georgian airspace (with their permission of course) just to make sure that the Russians “kept the peace.” Secondly, I would have moved to kick Russia out of the G8 and frozen their assets in the United States to show them that this type of action would not be tolerated. All three options would have sent a stronger message and at least affirmed to Georgia that we support them. The U.S. did none of those things other than offer a tepid condemnation. I admit that I have an emotional stake in this; I served with Georgian troops in Iraq and made friends with several officers, so this event has touched me personally. How many Georgians do you know? Oh, that’s right. Pretty easy to be cavalier when you have no real interest or stake in the event, eh?
Now, agree or disagree, I really don’t care. Arrogant? Perhaps. Like I said- I know what I know because I’ve commanded tank platoons and companies, as well as served as a battalion logistics/supply officer and operations officer. Maybe arrogance in this case beats being ignorant, emotional and willfully stubborn. I don’t know you or what you do. By the way you type, you must be some kind of Ultimate Fighting champion or something, because you’d have to be to tell me to STFU to my face. I’ve spent 3.5 years of my life away from my family serving in foreign countries so that you can sit behind your computer and talk tough. That’s your right, but it’s also pretty disgraceful.
Yes, I did that by choice, and am happy to serve. I just get reminded every once in awhile that there are some Americans out there who sometimes act unworthy of the freedoms that are their birthright. I’ve paid my dues and stand by my opinions. You’re welcome to yours no matter how emotion-based and uninformed they are.
You’ve painted this issue into some kind of we must respond in force scenario and it’s not that complicated. Unfortunately, we did nothing of consequence, so now the Georgians won’t ever take us at our word again, nor will anyone else we reach out to.
Sure looks a lot like we have peace in our time, but I hope we all don’t look back on our lack of a response later with regret. After all- Russia and China are watching. And, if you don’t think they are threats to our way of life, then you’re more naive than I thought.
Ok Major Kirk.
Well, go back and read. I was clear. If you have something to add that is useful to informing people, then add it. But don’t sit there and try to degrade everyone for their OPINIONS. Throw strawman out there all you want about telling you to STFU. it is easy to see what I meant.
The 2 types of people you mention. Well, as for me, if I was in the military, I would be an expert in my area wothout a doubt. That is just the way I am. But I am not in the military I am just a working shmo. I respect the military guys (gradnfather: WWI, Father: WWII, both brothers and most army/navy/marines and many career), so it is not like I ma some anti military nut as you intimate. Again, another strawman. I respect what the military does for all of us. But please spare me the “I fight for the free speech you used on this BLOG” crap. I don’t do the “thank you” everytime I see someone in the military. I see it as degrading to military guys. But I would do whatever I could to ehlp any of them. It’s their job and pray they do it well and stay safe.
I am not “an expert” (show me where I claimed to be) in this area and neither is anyone on this blog. Everyone states their opinions based on the information they have. But you come on like some blow hard telling everyone their opinions stink and we shouldn’t even state it. Not everyone can spend hours researching the nuances to arrive at the best solution. And thankfully, they are only opinons and our leaders don’t listen to us. But it is our right (fought for by many previous generations of my family as well) to state opinions even if you disagree. Instead, try stating why someone said something wrong then give the counter. You will find many, including myself, will listen and even change opinion form a well stated counter. Most have no ego in this. This is just an outlet since our leaders don’t listen any longer to the people on many subjects. And leave the tough guy stuff alone. I am sure you could take me out in minutes but what exactly does that prove? Nothing.
Now, for your solution. Thank you. It is a reasoned and well thought out response. That many others in the media have preferred. My own OPINION is this:
Moving a battle group into the region within aircraft strike distance is a very provocative move. Again, this is not the Iranian navy. If mexico was killing civilians and we moved to stop that by invading mexico and the russians sent a battle group off Baja what would we do (even if we provoked the incident)? Attack the group. We would not tolerate such and action and neither will Russia. If you do this and Russia responds, you better be ready to send in planes an escalate the situation. Not to mention we are kind of tied up in other areas, as well as a problem wiht Iran on potential nukes. We need to be ready there too.
Kicking them out of the G8 would isolate them which cold be used to consolidate power by Putin and rally the national zeal of Russians. That could lead to another cold war and Russia feeling they must take back buffer zones around their border, ike the Ukraine. It is a possibility and could also escalate tensions.
I don’t know the correct course of action. I am just looking through the potential outcomes to see what could happen. this is not a scenario where if we fail we simply have ot swallow our pride and go home like with some bananna republic or weak country. This has serious potential consequences to our homeland as well. Again, they have serious nuclear arsenal that must be considered. The reason I talk about using force is because ratcheting up the pressure could lead to all out conflict as stated above. It is a dangerous game that we better be ready to back up if we go down that path.
I hate abandoning Gorgia and I certainly see your point about losing credibilty with other allies as well a domino effect. It is a real possiblity. I just think we should sue much the same methods we have used against other countries. Diplomacy followed by sanctions etc over a period of time. We shouldn’t back Russia into a corner right off the bat. Allow them to pull back with pride in place that they are still a mjor power. Then help Georgia get back on its feet.
Anyway, that is my 2 cents and I know that is all it is worth. This is an extremmly dangerous situation that could easily explode into something much bigger. National pride and politacal maneuvering is tricky and can easily throw gas on the fire. I do apolgize for some of my remarks. Your post got under my skin when you must remember, this is just a BLOG wiht a bunch of people simply stating their opinions and you were trying to tell eveyone that their opinion should nto even be stated. They can state that opinion even if it is misinformed.
Let’s just clear something up. Georgia was not wantonly “killing civilians”. It was putting down an insurrection. Now you’re saying what if we openly provoked a separatist group in Mexico for the blatant purpose of annexing Mexican territory, and then followed up by making war on Mexico ourselves? It’s hard to say what our reaction would be to a Russian naval response, because to do something like that we’d have to be a very different country than we are now. We’d be, well, more like Russia is today.
Now as for the right response to this situation, you have a point that if we do anything at all with our own military, we should be prepared to go all the way, no half-measures, no bluffing. You mention other things like sanctions. There is a third option, though, such as what we did last time Russia unjustifiably invaded a neighboring country, during the 1980s. We can provide material support to the country’s defenders.
Citizen Weary- Apology accepted.
Just a bit of advice, though. Don’t preach to people about having the right to an opinion, but in the same post, tell someone to “But please spare me the “I fight for the free speech you used on this BLOG” crap.” It kinda takes the air out of your argument.
I earned the right to say that with over 1,100 days deployed in three different combat tours in Iraq since 2003. You may not respect the Iraq War or our reasons for going in, but you owe your basic freedoms to guys like me whether I make you angry or not. Talk on the internet is cheap- you’ve gone to great lengths to remind me that you have the basic right to an opinion, but then you turn around and slap me in the face with your comments. Like it or not, I, along with countless others (including members of your own family), *am* responsible for your right to do and say what you want without being held accountable by some higher power or government.
You’re obviously passionate about your ideas, so I’ll leave it at that. But just understand one thing- if I want to say that I’m fighting for your freedoms I will, and I don’t need you to sanctimoniously tell me that you need to be spared of that view. I earned the right to say that, and I’ll not have it taken away by the likes of you.
Major Kirk…
The question I would have is, what word exactly did we give to the Georgians?
We live in a democracy not a private country club where the gold star patrons dictate the rules. That is no small part of what so many paid in blood for. It isn’t up to the Rockefeller Republicans or Democratic Party insiders to be giving assurances and alliances out without public knowledge and debate.
So what alliance or agreement did we sign with Georgia? Some have suggested that they sent troops to help us in Iraq. Well Syria sent the 9th Armored Division, and a separate Brigade, 19,000 troops in total to help us in 1991 against Iraq. Is Syria now our ally? Are they ten times the ally that Australia is? Australia only sent 1,800 troops in 1991.
Russia backed the Northern Alliance in the fight against Al’Qaeda and the Taliban, and helped us with over-flight and airbases. They did that when we needed it. Why doesn’t that make them our ally? Mongolia has troops in Iraq right now. Are we obligated to them if they make trouble with China over Inner Mongolia?
Ok. But I earned the right to say what I want by being an American citizen and mainly thanks to the generosity of our hostess on this BLOG. I owe my basic freedoms to every person who fougth for those freedoms over the course of our history. My father, Marine infantry WWII, 5 battle stars (including iwo jima) for storming the beaches, 2 purple hearts, a total of 36 wounds, and more. My father did not want me to join the military but wanted me to get an education (1st in family to receive grad degree). So he sacrificed for me, his family to do what he thought best for us (frankly I wish I had served sometimes).
You seem to have this belief I dislike military or the Irap war and somehow that is a personal attack on you. Not even close to the truth. And a huge chip on your shoulder that seems to say I MUST respect you. No I don’t have to respect you personally. I respect your job and your chosen career, but I don’t have to respect someone who starts screaimng that everyone is basically an idiot, except you of course, and that we should not say anything if we don’t serve in the military. I am not a recruit in basic training. That is BS. Respect is earned at a job or in a persaonl setting. I am about as pro military as you get. You can have your opinion on how “soft” or whatever you think I am, but I will express my opinion no matter what. I HAVE earned that right as well.
Now, enough of the personal stuff. I still beleive provoking Russia or backing them into a corner is not a wise move at this time. Let things cool down and give them an out of the situation before we poke them in the eye. But, hey, I could be completly wrong and this becomes the domino effect. But ony history will prove either of us out.
Blackstone, I like that idea as well. Fight a proxy war like we did during the cold war. This is where I would need a much better understanding of the region, topograhy and people to form an opinion. For that plan to work you need radicals, like the islamic taliban, to win (or draw out the war indefinitely). Regardless, we could try but I think the one drawback would be, we lose our ability to reason with Russia and convince them to ever pullback out of the region. Which is why I still beleive we need to give them a little time to abide by the cease fire treaty they just signed. Which calls for them to withdraw back to the origainal territories they were in. If they don’t then all other options should be considered. Ossetia and the other region is gone fro all intents and purposes. We should focus on saving the rest of georgia form Russian rule. Wait and see is all I am saying. I just am firmly against anything that is overtly provocative (ie anything we can not deny) as it sounds liek you are. That is just too dangerous to bet our nation on at this point.
Weary Citizen- You sure make a lot of assumptions.
I never once singled you out until you attacked me first. Go back and look at my post and you’ll see that I didn’t address you.
In other words- relax and enjoy life a little. Stop being so thin skinned. I said in my last post that as an American, you’re born with rights that others don’t have. Enjoy them. Just don’t make a habit of telling me what I can and can’t talk about. That’s a liberal/leftist technique and it’s just plain rude.
Frankie sez relax.
Weary Citizen,
My considered opinions:
It is impossible to “reason” with Russia. Putin, et al, speak the language of force, not of reason. From Putin’s point of view, reason bespeaks weakness. He does not respect weakness; he respects the strength inherent in forcefulness.
There is no risk of Russia using a nuclear weapon against the United States, if that is what you fear. Putin is a bully, but he isn’t stupid.
Western Europe kisses Putin’s feet for fear he will cut off their supply of oil. But if he did, it would cut off the flow of money into Russia. I cannot believe he wants that.
I fervently hope our country will stand up to Russia and the diabolical Putin. I pray we will force the Russians to get out of Georgia. As a civilian, I do not know how that can be done; but our military people know, and I trust them to do it. We owe it to the Georgians.
Scots Wha Hae
Asuumptions are all any of us have at this point. That’s the bad thing. I like to deal in absolutes (math and science is my thing). All anyone can do, including our own leaders is devise solutions based on assumptions of the likely outcomes. Otherwise, leading the free worlkd would be a cake walk (I wouldn’t want that terrible potitcal job, yuk). Easier to monday QB it. LOL.
I was not trying to tell you what you could say. Your original post was certainly slanted to demeaning anyone who had an oppinion that was different than yours, which got my dander up (shouldn’t have just caught me wrong). Anyway, peace taco. I hope this all works out for the best. my wife and family are from czechoslovakia and i sure would hate to see them have to scramble out of there to avoid antoher occupation. That worries me a great deal. Stay safe and hope you get to relax for a while wiht your family and Iraq/Afghanistan are stabilized so you you never have to go back. Good luck.
I hope oyu are right. i too doubt he would use nuclear weapons. However, consider this. If we did have to fight them, and I am sure we would if we back them into a corner on this issue, do you really think Russia would ever surrender to the us? And even if he did not use nukes, he most certainly could inflict very heavy casulties on our military. Make no mistake about it. I am not willing to take the chance that putin is bluffing and a bully. Too much to lose.
Well, at any rate, I hope we can resolve this without escalating to a point of open hostilities. I have faith it will work out in time.
Well, as major said to relax, I am getting ready to take my kids to Seaworld tomorrow. i think that will be more fun than arguing politics. Have a good evening.
Weary Citizen,
re: your message to Major Kirk
Now I understand. You deal in absolutes – math and science. Assumptions make you uncomfortable because you think of them as ethereal. They aren’t. They are educated guesses.
The brain is a computer; it absorbs a multitude of facts about many diverse things. When you ask a “what if” question, Bang! You get an instant answer based on known facts, taking into account all the odds, pro and con. That’s an educated guess. (It’s sometimes called “intuition.”)
You could also try thinking of “acting on assumptions” as a chess game.
Then there’s always Einstein. His theory of relativity came to him in a brilliant, intuitive flash. He worked out the math later.
Hope I made sense. It’s bedtime, and I’m a bit sleepy. I wish you a good evening.
Y’all have fun at Seaworld!
Rats! I forgot to say: An educated guess is as absolute to me as a mathematical equation is to you.
Ta!
My fear is not only for Georgia and its people, but for our wonderful USA. We have no leadership and in the coming years our enemies will begin the attacks on us and all that tend to value life and freedom.
Lets not let them down as we did the Hungarians in 1956.