The NY-20 race; Updated: Too close to call
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Polls will close in a bit in New York’s 20th congressional district special election to replace Democrat Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand.
If you voted, let us know.
The race is a political inkblot — with some seeing it as a litmus test on Obama, others seeing it as a litmus test on Rush Limbaugh or AIG.
Newsday has this to say:
When she served in the House, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand was a quasi-Republican who voted with the NRA and the first federal bailout bill. Her former 20th district has a 75,000-voter GOP edge.
So the hype over today’s vote to replace her may look and sound and smell like some sort of wider test — who knows on what — but really it seems to boil down to which of two candidates about half a degree apart on the political spectrum, whose party-line votes as a freshman would probably be in tandem with the party leadership, can get his vote out.
In sum, this is a very local upstate race.
Greg Giroux at CQ also says not to read too much into it:
Tuesday’s special election in New York’s 20th District has received substantial national attention, though it’s probably a mistake to read too much into the result of the balloting between Republican James Tedisco and Democrat Scott Murphy.
The most obvious reason is that the Obama administration is barely two months old and that 20 months remain until the 2010 midterm elections, which will be a much broader referendum on the president’s policies and the Democratic-run Congress.
Moreover, a history of House special elections dating to 1968, which I compiled and posted on Greg’s List, should also give pause to ascribing too much importance to the outcome of a low-turnout election in a district that voted narrowly for Barack Obama in the 2008 election.
Obvious bottom line: The winner will overstate the significance of victory. The loser will downplay the ramifications of defeat.
And conservatives will be left wondering why the best their candidates can do is punt on fundamental questions about whether they are for generational thievery or whether they are against it.
Sigh.
***
11:51pm Eastern. It’s a squeaker. Too close to call.
Here’s the NRCC statement issued late tonight…
Statement from NRCC Chairman Pete Sessions on New York Special Election
Washington- National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) Chairman Pete Sessions released the following statement tonight on the status of the special election in New York’s 20th Congressional District:
“As the latest vote totals reflect, there still remain thousands of absentee and military ballots that have to be counted. Rest assured that Republicans will ensure that the integrity of the election is protected and every vote is counted. As it stands now, there is a Republican advantage in the number of absentee and military ballots that have been returned.
“With that being said, Jim Tedisco has closed the gap in a district that has come to exemplify Democratic dominance in the Northeast in recent elections. That is a testament to the strength of Jim’s campaign and the effectiveness of the Republican message of fiscal responsibility and accountability that Americans are demanding in the wake of the AIG scandal.
“Less than 150 days ago, President Obama carried New York’s 20th District, and former Congresswoman Gillibrand was handily reelected in this district by a margin of 62-38 percent, despite the fact that her Republican opponent spent $6 million trying to defeat her. For the first time in a long time, a Republican candidate went toe-to-toe with a Democrat in a hard-fought battle over independent voters. This was hardly a common phenomenon in 2008, particularly in the Northeast.”
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Those splinters must be hurting from sitting on the fence.
Voting FOR the pork-bill and he would loose some votes.
Voting AGAINST the pork-bill and he would loose some votes.
Catch 22. A terrible place for a politician.
But… it is obvious that he has no cojones for what is a conservative vote which will follow him forever.
James Tedisco doesn’t get it. He’s playing the hypothetical question game when the answer is obvious. When handed an 1,100 page bill you haven’t read and there is no time to read the only safe vote is no.
We are so screwed.
zorro …
B I N G O ! ! !
That would have been a totally safe answer … not having the opportunity to read it the only “responsible” vote had to be “NO” …
Exactly. And now with GM going BK anyway, every penny was a total waste, except that I hear the outgoing CEO gets his $20 million parachute landing.
I’m admittedly lightweight in matters of money, but even I can get that we’re screwed.
If Tedisco doesn’t win, Republicans have noone to blame but themselves. Too lazy to go to the polls.
BK?? What’s that? BanKrupt? Belly Kup? I don’t recognize the abbreviation.
Illinois are you watching. This how you fill a vacant seat.
Barack
Kontrolled
Vickisoup …
I can see the other BK reference … he definitely thinks he is a “king” and he is determined to “have it his way” …
He sounds like a typical CC Republican, just what this country needs another squishy Repub.
I know, DL, I’m loving the “fun with BK” comments. “BK” does refer to “Bankrupt”, but I don’t know why that nickname was given to it. Terry_Jim, both you and DL are my faves so far.
Maybe there just aren’t any good republicans anymore. Cantor let me down, Tesdisco is a weeney. Oy.
Vicki …
Could also be an abbreviation for …
Barack the King …
How about this: “Bad Karma”
LOL … definitely a good one Vicki …
And where is Michael Steele today? Not in Upstate New York. I’m beginning to think the republicans would rather be the minority party. No responsibility, no need to craft good legislation and having a good excuse to tell the folks back home when the kaka hits the fan.
I don’t wonder. I know exactly why: the conservatives “best” candidates are party-first Constitution-last unprincipled power craving sell-outs (a.k.a. “Republicans”).
Some others see it as an opportunity to be represented in the House.
Obvious bottom line: The winner will overstate the significance of victory. The loser will downplay the ramifications of defeat.
This I agree with.
Not to mention the supporters of the winner and loser, as well as, every talking head, blogger, pundit, twitterer, etc. They will all try to spin it, too.
I am thinking some others will be happy to have representation in the House.
So, then, BK stands for Big Kaka?
This is where he is….
WTH ???
Isn’t one of Steele’s jobs is to get Repubs elected?
The trend continues….we’re screwed.
The Democrat candidate will win by one vote, and the person casting the deciding vote died in 1983.
Oh yeah of little faith…
Obamas First car…runs on alcohol!!!
http://www.thesmokinggun.com/archive/years/2009/0331091stool1.html
Does Obama own a car? Has he ever owned a car, I mean one bought with his own money?
Based on the seat color, it must be the SE Model.
The latest on Drudge as of 7:35 PDT:
D 77,208
R 77,127
If the GOP loses this seat, Michael Steele should be fired.
I’m not certain that the nation has suffered enough as yet for to GOP to benefit from it. Once we see folks looking for liberals to lynch, then perhaps the GOP can dig itself out of the hole it has put itself in.
Not good if first returns are favoring Murphy. Democratic returns tend to come in later, gives them more time to make them up even as we wait.
7:55pm PDT:
D 77,344
R 77,279
Interesting, Lifeofthemind, about that Dem stat. I think the reason the Dem’s votes come in later is because it takes longer to manufacture them, you know, like in Minnesota. Gotta find all those car trunks to “find” the ballots in. We should try to be more understanding. “It’s hard out here for a Lib”.
Amen! Only an idiot would sign a contract without reading it. Why should voting for a bill be any different?
Craptastic!
Surprise, the Republicans pull out another guy sitting on the fence, testing the wind to see what he needs to say to get a hopefully lifetime job that will seed him in luxury.
I live in the district, the military and snowbird absentees are going to go big for Tedisco, he’s only 59 behind right now per the local cable news station.
If this is one of Soros’ Sec of State, and goes to a recount/hand count, I know how it will turn out already.
Sarge
People keep saying just wait for 2010. Wait for 2010 for what? These days there isn’t a dimes difference between a Republican or Democrat.
It’s even funnier here in Texas because it’s going to be a battle between two illegal loving CINO’s for Governor. Gov. Good Hair Perry vs Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson. I’m going to lose my spleen from laughing too hard if Carol Keeton Strayhorn…Carol Keeton Rylander…whatever she decides to name herself today/tomorrow. George W Bush may be a weak spineless jellyfish RINO but what Scott McClellan (Carol Keeton insert last name son) done is still fresh on people’s minds here.
Amen, I’ve had it up to here with Kay.
At least I have Hensarling in the House.
Not holding my breath here…. With 110% of the votes counted, the democrat will win. The “illegal aliens” vote was the clincher.
Yea, right! Just like in Minnesota!
If it’s close, the Dems in NY State will just fabricate votes. It’s what they do here.
But, the fact that it was this close after a blowout in November could be an indication of what’s in store for 2010. Problem is, if the RNC puts up RINOs, which they almost certainly will, 10% of the R’s in the house will still cave in like the pansies that they are and vote with Dems.
Given what I know of the race, I’d have voted against Tedisci. I will vote against the RNC again and again and again until they start fielding true conservatives. I am SO sick of this.
OT: Anybody here think Gingrich will raise nearly as much money at the House-Senate fundraising dinner as Palin would have?
I don’t wonder either – but my reason is a bit different. The conservatives are not republicans. The republicans left them.
We are screwed. Although, this election seems to reflect the mounting dissatisfaction with the Obama regime. Still, the RINO James Tedisco is a despicable thug, and if the votes start going his way, you bet your a$$ that the Dems will steal the seat a la Minnesota.
We need a revolution, not an election.
all those good new york city residents with cabins in the poconoes voted again. hard to keep a good dem down, even when dead.
All those good NYC residents with cabins in the poconos that also reside in Saratoga Springs?
I was a a lib/dem friend’s apartment in NYC last week when he started criticizing Kirsten Gillibrand.
I stopped him with the words: “I will not allow you to criticize a loyal Democratic Party member, a Woman appointed by New York’s first African-American Governor.”
Pick them off, one by one, to undo the horrible damage Obama is doing to this country.
Are you sure this isn’t another ACORN take over?