Iran: What next?
Photo via #iranelection twitterer maydar
Michael Ledeen weighs in:
What’s going to happen?, you ask. Nobody knows, even the major actors. The regime has the guns, and the opposition has the numbers. The question is whether the numbers can be successfully organized into a disciplined force that demands the downfall of the regime. Yes, I know that there have been calls for a new election, or a runoff between Mousavi and Ahmadinezhad. But I don’t think that’s very likely now. The tens of millions of Iranians whose pent-up rage has driven them to risk life and limb against their oppressors are not likely to settle for a mere change in personnel at this point. And the mullahs surely know that if they lose, many of them will face a very nasty and very brief future.
If the disciplined force comes into being, the regime will fall. If not, the regime will survive. Can Mousavi lead such a force? If anyone had said, even a few days ago, that Mousavi would lead a nation-wide insurrection, he’d have been laughed out of the room. Very few foresaw anything like the current situation, although I will claim credit for predicting that neither side in the electoral circus would accept the official verdict.
Does Mousavi even want to change the system? I think he does, and in any event, I think that’s the wrong question. He is not a revolutionary leader, he is a leader who has been made into a revolutionary by a movement that grew up around him. The real revolutionary is his wife, Zahra Rahnavard. And the real question, the key question in all of this, is: why did Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei permit her to become such a charismatic figure? How could he have made such a colossal blunder? It should have been obvious that the very existence of such a woman threatened the dark heart of the Islamic Republic, based as it is on the disgusting misogyny of its founder, the Ayatollah Khomeini.
…Some have asked why Khamenei used such grossly implausible numbers to “reelect” Ahmadinezhad, but that bespeaks ignorance of the mullahs: there is no lie that will shame them. No, the real question is why Zahra Rahnavard was given a free hand, and the real answer is that the mullahs, with Khamenei in the lead, made a blunder.
In any event, all of that is irrelevant now. The only thing that matters is winning and losing. Whatever plans Mousavi had for a gradual transformation of the Islamic Republic, they have been overtaken by events; the issue now is the survival of the system. Mousavi has called for a general strike on Tuesday. That is the right strategy, since he must demonstrate that the overwhelming majority of Iranians want an end to the regime. And the dissidents must show that they are not afraid of the thugs. Mousavi has said that they must use flowers, not guns, since he must aim at the disintegration of the armed killers, not at winning a gunfight…
On Twitter, #iranelection is flooded. Foreign media have been banned. More on talks of a dubious recount here.
Where is Barack Obama?
Sitting on the sidelines, “troubled.” Allahpundit’s got the vid:
Here we get a hard dose of Hopenchange caution-speak, acknowledging that the protesters have “inspired” Americans and that we respect Iran’s right to decide its own fate but that we’ll continue to pursue “tough” diplomacy with the regime on nukes no matter how odious Ahmadinejad might be. Hey, if we wanted a president who’d throw down the gauntlet and walk away in a situation like this, we would have elected the other guy. Sorry, Iranian kids.
Fun fact: Whereas The One was “shocked and outraged” by the murder of George Tiller, the most he can muster here for mass beatings and cold-blooded killings across Iran is that he’s “troubled.” Make of it what you will.
See what others have said
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Trackbacks
- The sole of Obama’s shoe – will we see the end of Israel? « Jim Blazsik
- What Next for the U.S. and Iran? « NEOAVATARA
- A Hodgepodge of Voices on Iran « The Pugnacious Irishman
- A Hodgepodge of Voices on Iran | Mosaic Media
- Whats going to happen with Iran? NO one seems to know | Fire Andrea Mitchell!
- Barack Hamlet Obama–To Be or Not To Be President of The United States–Failing The Iranian Test « Pronk Palisades
- Iran: What is next? « The Daley Gator
- Too Upsetting for Commentary: Bloodshed in Iran vs. Obama’s Ice Cream Parlor Trip « Frugal Café Blog Zone
- The Hill’s Blog Briefing Room » MIDDAY ROUNDUP
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Categories: Iran
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I knew it would bother you lol…
and your ‘retort’ is??? lmao!!
Still waiting for an intelligent answer on this one?
when you agree to meet with a dictator with no preconditions…nothing…you appease that dictator…and you grant him legitimacy. and ahmadinajad just asked for more!! its too funny!!
I would say the principle of not supporting a ruthless dictator whose country has been at war with us for 30 years…but libs ALWAYS support anti-american dictators…
thats appeasement…now why don’t you try to intelligently answer where that has worked in history there neville!!
and now in the face of this latest outrage, we express nothing..no outrage, no condemnation, no standing with the people of iran against tyranny…
thats appesement…next obama will be bowing to the Ayatollah!!
appeasement
– right4life
By voting in an ‘unvarnished hardliner’ who has opportunistically re-cast himself as a reformer?
The guy (Moussavi) was involved in the start-up of Iran’s nuke program, and the formation of Hezbollah. That doesn’t sound like a route to getting rid of the Islamic dictatorship there. . .it sounds like more of the same. He WAS approved for candidacy by the mullahs, afterall.
Nice try. But that is called diplomacy.
thanks for the laughs, loser.
yeah I know, but this weakens the mullahs, which is what counts…Yeltsin wasn’t exactly Washington, but he did good…and this guy can’t do any worse than ahmadinajad…and this whole incident may turn him against the mullahs..worth a shot…
And what did you say about name-calling?
whats good for goose is good for the gander…wacko.
And what name did I call you? Please do tell.
You have some serious anger issues my friend.
I understand the concerns of those who fear that Moussavi is just a wolf in sheep’s clothing. However, once the public’s anger is uncorked, there is no telling where it’s going to lead. In the beginning of 1775, anyone who thought that we would be fighting a long war with the British for our independence would have been thought of as daft. After all, we only wanted equal treatment before the law as Britons on the home island, and had London taken measures to accommodate us, even through compromises, there would have been no revolution.
Barack is a witless idiot. No leadership. None. Nada. Zero. Zilch. Neutered by North Korea and dumbfounded by Iran. He is intellectually paralyzed. He waits silently hoping that Twitter will make things all better again.
Then heads to bed and laughs at Letterman’s sophomoric antics, meanwhile hoping Hillary will handle that 3AM phonecall.
We have a president that dry-labbed his way through college and stands speechless without a teleprompter.