Iran: What next?

Photo via #iranelection twitterer maydar
Michael Ledeen weighs in:
What’s going to happen?, you ask. Nobody knows, even the major actors. The regime has the guns, and the opposition has the numbers. The question is whether the numbers can be successfully organized into a disciplined force that demands the downfall of the regime. Yes, I know that there have been calls for a new election, or a runoff between Mousavi and Ahmadinezhad. But I don’t think that’s very likely now. The tens of millions of Iranians whose pent-up rage has driven them to risk life and limb against their oppressors are not likely to settle for a mere change in personnel at this point. And the mullahs surely know that if they lose, many of them will face a very nasty and very brief future.
If the disciplined force comes into being, the regime will fall. If not, the regime will survive. Can Mousavi lead such a force? If anyone had said, even a few days ago, that Mousavi would lead a nation-wide insurrection, he’d have been laughed out of the room. Very few foresaw anything like the current situation, although I will claim credit for predicting that neither side in the electoral circus would accept the official verdict.
Does Mousavi even want to change the system? I think he does, and in any event, I think that’s the wrong question. He is not a revolutionary leader, he is a leader who has been made into a revolutionary by a movement that grew up around him. The real revolutionary is his wife, Zahra Rahnavard. And the real question, the key question in all of this, is: why did Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei permit her to become such a charismatic figure? How could he have made such a colossal blunder? It should have been obvious that the very existence of such a woman threatened the dark heart of the Islamic Republic, based as it is on the disgusting misogyny of its founder, the Ayatollah Khomeini.
…Some have asked why Khamenei used such grossly implausible numbers to “reelect” Ahmadinezhad, but that bespeaks ignorance of the mullahs: there is no lie that will shame them. No, the real question is why Zahra Rahnavard was given a free hand, and the real answer is that the mullahs, with Khamenei in the lead, made a blunder.
In any event, all of that is irrelevant now. The only thing that matters is winning and losing. Whatever plans Mousavi had for a gradual transformation of the Islamic Republic, they have been overtaken by events; the issue now is the survival of the system. Mousavi has called for a general strike on Tuesday. That is the right strategy, since he must demonstrate that the overwhelming majority of Iranians want an end to the regime. And the dissidents must show that they are not afraid of the thugs. Mousavi has said that they must use flowers, not guns, since he must aim at the disintegration of the armed killers, not at winning a gunfight…
On Twitter, #iranelection is flooded. Foreign media have been banned. More on talks of a dubious recount here.
Where is Barack Obama?
Sitting on the sidelines, “troubled.” Allahpundit’s got the vid:
Here we get a hard dose of Hopenchange caution-speak, acknowledging that the protesters have “inspired” Americans and that we respect Iran’s right to decide its own fate but that we’ll continue to pursue “tough” diplomacy with the regime on nukes no matter how odious Ahmadinejad might be. Hey, if we wanted a president who’d throw down the gauntlet and walk away in a situation like this, we would have elected the other guy. Sorry, Iranian kids.
Fun fact: Whereas The One was “shocked and outraged” by the murder of George Tiller, the most he can muster here for mass beatings and cold-blooded killings across Iran is that he’s “troubled.” Make of it what you will.
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Categories: Iran
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I’m not sure Michael LeDeen is totally accurate about Mousavi when he says “…He is not a revolutionary leader, he is a leader who has been made into a revolutionary by a movement that grew up around him…”.
He’s cut from the same cloth as Ahmadinijad.
I read these tidbits from Jack Kinsella and have no reason to doubt their accuracy.
This is reminding me of Hungary in 1956. The US quiety sat by and watched the tanks mow the people down. Tianamen Square was also similar.
Obama seems more interested in “stability” than change. Translation is that he would rather deal with the tyrants.
I hope this time the people finally win.
BO would rather deal with tyrants because he is one (well, in the closet tyrant but becoming more transparent daily).
On one hand, I could respect Obama sitting on the sidelines. After all, is it up to the US to get involved in every international event? Aren’t there some things we should just stay out of and mind our own business? Does Obama have the answer to every problem? Typically, I think he does beleive he can solve every problem. That is why I beleive his lack of statement or action is not due to restraint, but rather a lack of effective plan or any idea about what to do.
Look closely people, Iranian citizens are unarmed and being attacked by their own government. Protect our 2nd amendment rights!
If Iran didn’t have such a control of a major oil supply lines that we depend on and wasn’t developing nukes, I would say let them burn.
Dennis Ross was reassigned away as Iran envoy, probably because the Iranians didn’t want a hawkish supplicant. Or maybe because Ross is Jewish.
The Won folded for them like a cheap suit.
Expect nothing for the Obammunist.
Isn’t there some way to get help in there? Or arms to the people? I wish we could help them. But it looks like they have to do this on their own. The only problem is, what will they do if they overthrow the regime? If it is anything like when Castro overthrew Batista, it will be going from bad to worse. They don’t have a clue about democracy or running a free country. It will just be another dictatorship. Those people desperately want FREEDOM, as every human being wants, needs, and is entitled to. I don’t think that will happen.
Another thing…Obama’s statement mentioned that he is “troubled” by the violence, but we are staying out of it. The response from Iran is “U.S., none of your business. Death to America.” So, those are the folks Obama wants to sit down and “talk with”. Other countries have made statements about this event and Iran did not respond that way. Only to us. Obama’s reaching out to them and they are cutting his arms off. Will he learn from this? No.
Is it me, or did the militiamen wielding batons look remarkably like the pro Obambi New Black Panther Poll “Watchers?”
DITTO!
Obama’s befuddlement over events in Iran reminds me of how Jimmy Carter felt the loss of control over events when Sadat went to Jerusalem to sue for peace.
IIRC, Mousavi was appointed to the leadership council of Hezb’Allah, the Iranian Arab Foreign Legion in 1982, by Khomeini.
Hezb’Allah blew up the Marine barracks, the US embassy in Beirut, kidnapped Americans in Lebanon, killing some, bombed the Jewish cultural center in Buenos Aires, and bombed the USAF barracks at Khobar Towers. Not to mention the war a couple of years back against Israel.
Iran, via proxy, has been at war with the US and its allies for thirty years, and Mousavi is apparently part of it.
If he was approved by the mullahs to run, he isn’t a reformer, and he is an aggressive Islamist.
This will not end well for the Iranian people no matter what happens. The regime will still be virulently anti-American and anti-Israel. Obambi doesn’t care because it fits his agenda either way.
Good articles at Americanthinker this morning. Especially at the link.
http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/06/obamas_real_agenda_israels_dim.html
one word
Armenians…
…they didn’t have guns either.
this administration won’t blatantly take our guns. We just won’t be able to buy any ammo.
Is there any way to make our own ammo? Just curious. I know nothing about guns.
Yes, you can make your own ammo.
You still have to buy brass and other supplies.
People “make” their own ammo every day, but they have the supplies to do it. That can change. Actually, it is really difficult right now to buy ammo.
So, will Obama also make those items hard to get? This whole thing is so surreal. I can’t believe I am even asking such questions.
My brother told me there is a gun shop by him that has lots of ammo. I guess you can find it if you “hunt” for it…pardon the pun. Regarding Iran’s people, I don’t hold much hope for them. They will lose a lot of their patriots in this battle and they will lose the battle, one way or the other. There is really no hope for freedom in that wretched place.
The Atlas Shrugs article linked to below:
http://atlasshrugs2000.typepad.com/atlas_shrugs/2009/06/irans-election-wolf-vs-wolf-in-sheeps-clothing.html
mentions a comment about a John Bolton interview:
HS, I don’t think there is a dime’s worth of difference between the two Iranian “candidates”.
Agreed.
For our self-preservation,…agreed.
Not as long as it is an Islamic “Republic”, and is a majority moslem nation, anyway.
I wonder how many of these protesters in Iran would let me walk around in public wearing a Cross and carrying a Bible, without attacking me….
To paraphrase what Henry Kissinger said about Iran and Iraq during their war…it’s a pity both sides cannot lose.
Selected vote recount?
Oh ya, that will resolve things.
/sarc
I guess all of those protesters must be Christian conservative right wing extremists.
How does the Taliban get all it’s ammo? There are plenty of people around the world who will supply it. And the guns to go with it. Money talks.
Where is BHO? He is probably making crude remarks about tea-bagging with his cronies.
I agree in that there is no significant difference between these candidates, and that is why the mullahs let them both run in the election. However, the people protesting in the street seem to think there is a fundamental difference between them. It would be something if these protesters actually get a chance to hold their elected leaders accountable and obtain real government representation. That might be revolutionary.
What if…
That photo illustrates Persians using the universal hand gesture for peace. What if it is actually a coded message to the mullahs?
Hint: Drop one finger… No, lgm, the other one.
– CaliforniaRed
Moreover, as has been noted, if Moussavi is simply adopting the mantle of a reformer as an opportunistic move to gain office, it would be foolish of Obama to come out and make too strong a statement in favor of his supporters.
If he does, a year or two from now, we might just be criticizing him for his support of Iran’s next hardliner.
As far as I know Michelle, you are not an expert on Iran. I’m guessing former Bush negotiator with Iran, Ambassador Nicholas Burns, might have a little more expertise:
Negotiated for what? How did it go?
My son called me chortling about the Iranian election. His take:
N-a-a-a-a-a-w, even Joe Biden isn’t that stupid. But I am ABSOLUTELY SURE ACORN and Obamessiah are very busy taking notes on how they can effect this scenario here in the USSA.
“If we could only do something about those pesky gun-n-God-clingers,” muses Obamessiah outloud….
Perhaps it is because Obama has no idea what a truly fair election would look like?
Seriously, I think THE PRESIDENT of the worlds largest democracy has an obligation to speak out and state that it is incumbent on the Iranian leadership to ensure that the results of the voting are accurate and valid.
To my knowledge he has not even said that.
The difference between the two sides in the election dispute is something called political patronage, or “follow the money.” Anyone who thinks that a theocracy is incorruptible is a fool, especially when the ruling clique has been in power too long.
I know Wikipedia is not comprehensive, but I don’t see a post for him involving Iran.
Can you cite a reference for something he did of significance relating to Iran, please? Other than the above highlighted “let’s talk to Iran” and “let’s give a bunch of money to the baby-killers in Gaza” and hope for the best.
I’ll let you guess who said that.
I’m not worried. The Dear Leader will have a nice cup of organic tea with the little dwarf, and everything will be fine.
Sarah Palin?
So, Obama doesn’t want to meddle eh? Then he should STFU about Israel!
Somehow I doubt that Ronald Reagan would’ve kept his mouth shut about Iran! But then, he was a Statesman!
You never know considering the statement I posted above was from Reagan’s White House Communications Director.
He didn’t stop Reagan from calling out Gorbachev to tear down that wall.
***
The candidates in the Iranian election were picked by the Mullahs. There isn’t a dimes worth of difference between them. Which was better during WW2–the really bad SS troops, or the more “moderate” regular German Army? Their victims couldn’t tell the difference. This is mostly an internal Iranian power struggle going on.
***
As far as the universal peace “hand gesture”–in many countries this is the first half of a “middle finger” type of obscene gesture.
***
As far as what is going to happen next–on the international scene–sameo–sameo.
***
As far as the regime change / freedom protesters that can be identified on the videos or by informants–the bullet, lash, stone, noose, club, and / or prison. The red Chinese Tieneman Square actions are the model–Deja Vu all over again. President Obama (PBUH) has given the Mullahs the “all clear” signs in his appeasement speeches.
***
John Bibb
***
Covert support of the dissidents is the way to go, and I assume this is already happening. However any public promise of support for the opposition would be disastrous.
I find the sudden concern for the Iranians by the same people who approved of bombing them not long ago really ironic. Remember the hilarious John McCain Bomb Iran song?
When Pat Buchanan is on the road he is depriving his village of its idiot.
What’s this talk that Middle East Muslims don’t want Democracy?
So he’s going to prevent North Korea from possessing bombs even though they already have them (calling lgm for a logic explanation), but Iran – who doesn’t have them yet – he will do nothing about?
I know, right? If ANYONE can influence an Iranian election, it’s the president of the Great Satan himself.
“When the people fear the government, there is tyranny.
When the government fears the people, there is liberty!”
Instead of wondering why Obama isn’t dealing with this situation immediately – why don’t you “Tea Party, Liberty Loving” people go to Iran?
I have been up for that since November 4, 1979.
Works for me. When can we start?
I don’t think that would be a good idea. Why would the Iranian people welcome the side that was totally okay with bombing them several months ago?
Hey Flyoverman
Stop talking and get over there.
maybe because those that are protesting would be happy to get rid of the islamic dictatorship.
why? when we’re too busy here trying to stop people like you from turning this country into a socialist dictatorship.
he could say the equivalent of ‘TEAR DOWN THIS WALL’
but he won’t…nor will he do anything to destabilize a muslim dictatorship, or any other dictatorship.
maybe obama could say he no longer wants to meet with a dictator who has blood on his hands…
but he won’t…he’ll still welcome ahmadinajad with open arms…
how about something like this:
“Our sympathies are with the people, not the government.”
or
The people of
PolandIRAN are giving us an imperishable example of courage and devotion to the values of freedom in the face of relentless opposition. Left to themselves, thePolishIRANIAN people would enjoy a new birth of freedomthat was REAGAN
here’s OBAMA..
oh yeah he’s a bulwark of freedom
Anyone in their right mind hopes they manage to get rid if the islamic dictatorship. Glad to see that everyone now(suddenly) see’s them as more than just some collateral damage.
oh please, do you even know any iranians?? I have known some of them, and as I stated in another thread, they were very decent people, especially compared to the palestinians I have known…
anyway, wanting to get rid of the bloody dictatorship of iran and stop their nuclear program doesn’t mean we want to kill ever iranian…please….
Bombing countries tend to like kill innocent people and stuff. They mattered just as much before the uprising etc.
People just need to stop the silliness and realize everyone wants these people to have the freedom they deserve.
so we shouldn’t have bombed japan or nazi germany right?
doesn’t sound like obama does…you libs didn’t want us to get rid of saddam, did you now??
and remember in Nam all the libs who didn’t want us to defeat the North vietnamese???
so no, liberals don’t want freedom for everyone…they’re perfectly happy with dictatorships…as long as they are anti-US dictatorships..
If Jimmah had let us go in 1979, we would not be discussing it now and we would have saved the lives of all the people that Iran directly and through it proxies have killed for the last thrity years.
You do not talk to a snake. You crush its head.
Obama has no interest in protecting the Iranian masses who are speaking out..On the other hand, He might want to be interested in the American masses because it could be coming to the USA!
I’ve been thinking… especially looking at some of these young peace-sign-proffering Iranians.
It’s possible that many of these young people are just as ignorant and misinformed as ours. never read a paper, watch th enews, etc. They probably no nothing about Mossaui, only they hate Ahmanidiot as much as our idiots hate Bush…
Iranian who are struggling for freedom might be the example for the Iraqis. Winning freedom isn’t given out like candy nor is it won for you by another country’s army.
you’re too far gone and lunatic fringe to debate. I’m sure you really do believe what you’re saying…I’ll pass and wish you a good day though.
looks like the truth hurts…calling names is all you left-wing wackos can do…
because you sure can’t debate the issues…
Quoted For Hilarity.
oh the irony
uh I didn’t until I was called..
get a clue
why don’t you go ahead and answer what your ‘friend’ could not??
tell me how you libs are for freedom for all!! right…
lot of trolls on this thread..
Way to take the moral high ground.
I guess the same “eye for an eye” rationale doesn’t apply to me.
I think both sides of the political divide here in the U.S. are in agreement over their detestion of the current Islamic Republic regime and are hopeful for a positive outcome for the opposition. Where we differ is on what role the U.S. should play in it. Please read my posts #28 & #34 for my take on it. It think your opinion “liberals don’t want freedom for everyone…they’re perfectly happy with dictatorships” is a little short-sighted, as I believe we are all on the same page with wanting freedom for everyone, our differences lie in how to get there.
p.s. Would it be to much to ask to condense your posts into 1 rather than4 or 5 in a row.
whats good for the goose is good for the gander, don’t ya think??
as far as the ‘high ground’ you libs support of every dictatorship around has disqualified you from any moral judgments…along with your support of killing unborn babies….
but historically you have not shown any support of getting rid of dictators…especially socialist dictators…remember how duranty went to Stalin’s russia and said he’d ‘seen the future, and it works’ while stalin was killing millions??
when you libs talk about ‘freedom’ its nothing more than ‘words just words’
and obama apparently has no qualms about legitimizing ahmadinajad…meeting with him without preconditions…
even now he hasn’t said he won’t meet with him, or work with him..
iran has been at war with us for 30 years..how many *more* americans have to die before liberals figure this out?
this is naive and laughable…oh yeah we shouldn’t upset the nice dictators..please…
confronting dictators works…as Reagan showed with the soviet bloc..appeasing them as obama has…and carter did, does not.
Reagan Envoy Rumsfeld Bravely Confronts Brutal Dicator Saddam Hussein With One-Handed Death Grip: Shocking Photos Inside!
Tell that to conservative pundit and former REAGAN White House Communications Director, Pat Buchanan.
Looks like moonshot was right about you.
oh you mean the guy who thought it was churchill’s fault Hitler started WWII??
you libs are good for a laugh….too bad your policies create such misery, suffering and death for so many…
ROOSEVELT turns over Eastern Europe to STALIN!!! hundreds of millions ENSLAVED….
oh and he also turned over some german POWS to the russians, so they would be tortured and murderd too..
oh and huggyboob…ever hear of the enemy of our enemy is our friend?? we used saddam to fight the mad mullahs in iran…
and it worked pretty well for some years…
but that strategic thinking is beyond the talking point wacko left!
you libs cannot move beyond talking points…but if you could actually think for yourselves, you wouldn’t be liberals!!
I see, so it’s not about “defending freedom for everyone” or absolute moral truths. Sometimes it’s okay to be BFFs with a murderous tyrant if it suits your strategic interests. Thanks for clarifying!
so do you think Roosevelt was mistaken in allying the US with STALIN??? hmmmm???
just curious…
lmao…that is the pot calling the kettle black.
right, bringing up pat buchanan is really an argument
so Neville, show me historically where appeasement has worked and brought freedom…go ahead and use buchanan’s argument, since you know them so well…
huggy:
whassa matter, can’t answer that question?? its a simple yes or no…
still doing your ah ‘research’ there neville?
or are you just waiting for a fax from the DNC???
Why? Where have I argued for appeasement? Or are you just parroting what the right-wing punditry?
Good grief, do you actually have time for to sift through the annals of American history to try and prove… something? I certainly don’t. I’m just here to point and laugh.
I’m not the one claiming it’s my duty to defend “freedom for everyone*” (*except for some people, sometimes). Those were your words, not mine. Besides, I’m a liberal, remember? “Words just words” and stuff? Why do you even care what I think since, as you have so shrewdly observed, we’re not capable of thinking for ourselves? Well, the rumors are true — Everything I say is actually the intellectual property of George Soros. Why not just go straight to the horse’s mouth?
But seriously, folks… if this is a war of attrition, you win — I surrender (It’s in my blood, I’m part French. I also have a life).
#28 and #34…what else do you call it??? hmmmmm??
I don’t have to ‘sift’…I’ve already read it…perhaps you should try history 101…you’re good for a few laughs…thats about it…
where’d I say that?? are there any libs who don’t lie??
but continue with your lies…its all ya got…
lol…maybe you should research what appeasement is…’cause those examples you cite our not it.
appeasement: to buy off (an aggressor) by concessions usually at the sacrifice of principles
Now tell me, what concessions/buy offs our we making in #28 & #34 and what principles are we sacrificing?
And how come I was only given 11 minutes to respond but it took you 29? lmao @ right4life…if ignorance is bliss, you must be in heaven my friend.
oh its ARE there einstein!!
lmao at liberal losers like you!!!
your ‘response’ was BS, as is everything else you post
you’re so used to bending over for the democRATs you wouldn’t know appeasement if it bit ya!!
you’re right, you libs have NO principles…
Come on now right4life…couldn’t you put those into one post? lol
And what brilliant retorts I might add. lmao
I knew it would bother you lol…
and your ‘retort’ is??? lmao!!
Still waiting for an intelligent answer on this one?
when you agree to meet with a dictator with no preconditions…nothing…you appease that dictator…and you grant him legitimacy. and ahmadinajad just asked for more!! its too funny!!
I would say the principle of not supporting a ruthless dictator whose country has been at war with us for 30 years…but libs ALWAYS support anti-american dictators…
thats appeasement…now why don’t you try to intelligently answer where that has worked in history there neville!!
and now in the face of this latest outrage, we express nothing..no outrage, no condemnation, no standing with the people of iran against tyranny…
thats appesement…next obama will be bowing to the Ayatollah!!
appeasement