Document drop: CBO scores the health care takeover
A Senate staffer passes along the CBO/Joint Committee on Taxation report scoring the House health care takeover.
Bottom line from the staffer:
$1.042 trillion over “ten years”, though the program really gets going in 2015 so its more like a 5 year score. Also, don’t forget most bills carve out unions so that they have a reprieve. Who needs card check [with] US government health insurance as a recruiting tool.
I’ve uploaded the full report: Read it here.
From the caveats section of the report intro:
Important Caveats Regarding This Preliminary Analysis
There are several reasons why the preliminary analysis that is provided in this letter and its attachments does not constitute a comprehensive cost estimate for the coverage provisions of America’s Affordable Health Choices Act:
• First, our analysis was based on specifications regarding insurance coverage that were provided by the tri-committee group and that differ in important ways from the “discussion draft” version of legislative language that was released on June 19, 2009. The specifications that we analyzed are supposed to be reflected in the draft language released by the three committees today, but we have not yet been able to analyze that language to determine whether it conforms to those specifications. Our review of that language could have a significant effect on our analysis. More generally, as our understanding of the specifications improves, that also could affect our future estimates.
• Second, some effects of the proposal have not yet been fully captured in our analysis. In particular, we have not yet estimated the administrative costs to the federal government of implementing the specified policies, nor have we accounted for all of the proposal’s likely effects on spending for other federal
programs. We expect to include those effects in the near future, but we also expect that they will not have a sizable impact on our analysis.• Third, the budgetary information shown in the attached table reflects many of the major cash flows that would affect the federal budget as a result of implementing the specified policies, and it provides our preliminary assessment of the proposal’s net effects on the federal budget deficit (subject to the caveats listed above). Some additional cash flows would appear in the budget—either as outlays and offsetting receipts or outlays and revenues—but would net to zero and thus would not affect the deficit. CBO and the JCT staff have not yet estimated all of those cash flows but expect to do so in the near
future.2 Those additional cash flows would include the premiums collected by the public plan and its outlays as well as risk-adjustment transfers from plans with relatively healthy enrollees to plans with relatively unhealthy enrollees.
***
Update: Check out the very handy chart from Philip Klein making clear how the CBO’s 10-Year time frame obscures the full cost of Obamacare. Some 83 percent of the spending in the Dems’ House plan doesn’t kick in until the second 5-year period.
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Trackbacks
- The American Spectator : AmSpecBlog : House Dems Propose Massive Tax Hikes to Pay For Government Health Care
- Health Care Reform: CBO Realities « NEOAVATARA
- The American Spectator : AmSpecBlog : 10-Year Time Frame Obscures Full Cost of Democratic Health Care Plan
- CBO scores the health care takeover « POLITISITE: Politics from the RIGHT Side of the WEB
- PunditKix
- How to pay for the democRATS health care bill – surtaxes | Fire Andrea Mitchell!
- CBO takes a stab at calculating the cost of federal health care | Radio Vice Online
- The real reason behind the economic meltdown – government (particularly Democrats) « Jim Blazsik
- Billions, Trillions, and More: CBO Releases Appalling Dollar Amount for Crappy ObamaCare « Frugal Café Blog Zone
- House pushes $1 trillion health care reform bill « Wellsy’s World
- GraniteGrok
- Conservative Free-Market Solutions to Health Care Reform | The Patriot's Mind
- The $1 Trillion Health Care Debacle | Axis of Right
- Health care reality… « Time for Thorns
- Health Care Roundup: DNC Targets Democratic Senators on Health Care | The Substratum
- Random Nuclear Strikes » A very worthy twenty minutes
- A Thousand Points Of Light On Health Care, All Put Into One Post « Around The Sphere
- ObamaCare: War on the Middle Class… Buy Health Insurance or Pay More Taxes « Frugal Café Blog Zone
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- ~ Health Care Nightmare: Just Follow the Money — If You Can « Quick Daily Hits — Politics and Such
- ‘Fat-Cat City’ with Bloated, Complicated ObamaCare Bureaucracy: Check Out the Scary-Huge Organizational Chart of House Democrats’ Single-Payer Health Plan « Frugal Café Blog Zone
- Ten Ways ObamaCare will Kill You - WOSG’s blog - RedState
- How Obamacare will Cripple the Economy | The Patriot's Mind
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And it will be “paid” for by a tax method that has never failed to reduce revenues!!!
WWWEEEEEEEE pass the crack pipe, this is going to get rough.
I do believe obamacare and his czars have done smoked it all.
And medicare was going to max out at $12 billion a year.
All government heath care does is trigger infinite demand. Which in turn requires granny to die with the cure costs more than the worth to the collective.
Eugenics, the NAZIs favorite science. And now the world’s most prominent eugenics scientist is none other than Colonel Obama’s science adviser.
Government speak meaning less than $25 billion.
Over $1 Trillion.
Now, can anyone cite a single example of the government underestimating the costs of a program? That’s not a rhetorical question, I’d really like to know if anything has been cheaper than they thought.
That one-trillion is probably more like two-trillion in reality, not counting the expense of having our economy weighted down with taxes and fees to pay for this boondoggle.
sucker bet.
How can people be so care-less.
Making me sick.
Suppose, it’s better to be sick now then later.
Obama:
It will not add any new deficits, I repeat no new deficits. This was when he introduced new surgeon general yesterday.
Let’s not forget that these numbers are coming from the Congressional Budget Office. The real effect in terms of additional spending and increase to budget deficits is probably several times the CBO’s estimate.
$1 Trillion.. and likely over much less than 5 years…. and consider the unlikely case of a Gov’t Entitlement program actually running at or under it’s budget.
So figure the REAL cost of this is more like $4 Trillion over 10 years.
Anyone want to chime in on the damage that can be done by a gov’t that chews up THAT much of the credit market with deficit spending?
Err… $1 Trillion over much less than 10 years…. according to the staffer.
I
Exactly.
And, if passed, will be the proverbial nail-in-the-coffin to any economic recovery, much less, our very lives in the long run. I’m more and more convinced this country will have to totally bankrupt before clear heads are voted into office. It’s also becoming clear that they can pass any bill, for any amount of expenditure, but paying for it isn’t even considered. We are broke.
I was just wondering when the so-called “independent” CBO is going to muzzled by the Obama thugs. They keep bringing up these embarrassing facts about how much these bloated, socialist programs cost.
Does this plan cover illegal aliens?
I guess I better tell my mom to get her knee replacement NOW.
I know this sounds crazy but if the health care bill is passed. One of the first questions I will ask any ‘conservative’ or ‘ republican’challenger to the house or Senate is, “How will you make sure the health care legislation is repealed?”
In the New wOrld Order…. there are no such individuals.
And yes… ObamaCare covers anyone with a pulse…. and probably some without. In that ACORN sort of way.
Obama on video!
Will NOT ADD TO OUR DEFICIT IN NEXT DECADE about 1:03 into video!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=73mS1iOxtK4
Speculation is it will be almost if not impossible to be repealed!
Depending on exactly how you calculate the figures, the Apollo Program cost between 20 and 25 billion dollars. It was originally estimated at 22.7 billion.
So maybe that’s one.
This is being crafted by the same people who lost $18 million in seven years trying to run a resturant.
It will be a disaster.
“….unauthorized immigrants….” Snicker.
Not to be overly nitpicky, but perhaps you meant overestimate?
Or “overestimating,” even.
This is so sickening.
The apt question with respect to any social program in my memory is: by what multiple of the published estimate at year x will the actual costs exceed what we were told they would be?
And we got velcro in our every day lives. That is so worth it.
Tang: remember TANG.
But also bear in mind that Apollo was NOT a social program, and dealt with “real stuff” that engineers could kind of estimate.
Universal health care is a very bad idea. I don’t want a Republican version of the plan. I want the private sector to provide the coverage. The federal government needs to stay out of it.
*They say that it will be funded by taxing the rich; Remember, when you soak the rich, everybody gets wet.
*I am originally from Canada, where they have what P-BO actually desires for us here in the USA; I called it the Universal Premature Death Care Plan; It sucks and sucks bad.
*One teeny, tiny example is that there are more MRI machines in the Atlanta area than in all of Canada; Government mandates or free market, take your pick.
A couple of models of Federal health-care:
VA hospitals.
Indian Reservations.
Look them up. It SHOULD scare you to death, even if you are fearless.
Universal. adj. See Mandatory
Um. Did the CBO take into account the number of job losses there will be when they remove the influence of the private sector? The health care industry is the only one adding jobs. If this thing passes, that job creation machine will stop immediately.
Also, this is an attack at the evil insurance companies that make a profit. If profits are bad, then where will they get the taxes from? You only tax profitable companies.
Health insurance companies pay huge amounts of taxes to federal, state, and local governments. If they aren’t allowed to make a profit, that tax revenue dries up at a time when tax revenues are dwindling.
Of course. Who do you think all those “uninsured” people are? They get free healthcare now anyway. But now, they will be given insurance so we all have to do with less coverage. A classic example of everyone suffering for the good of a few losers. This is leveling the playing field, to make things “fair” even for people who have no right to be in this country. There is some serious insantity in our government. We are now officially in a class, race and culture war. And a big cause of it is rampant illegal immigration.
Biologically speaking, a kidney doesn’t care if its transplanted into an American citizen or an illegal alien. Politically speaking, Obama feels the same way. If you like California in 2009, you will love the USA in 2042. The demographics are/will be the same.
Stop amnesty at NumbersUSA here.
Hope everyone gets to those offices on Friday and screams bloody murder about this. Laughing about reading bills leaders, not enough info to do full cost estimates, and still this big government “leadership” intends to ram this through as quickly as possible to assure socialism replaces American freedom!
Love with both the cap and trade and health care bills major spending conveniently falls after the 2012 election?
Rats are everywhere ruining everything even though they are transparent!
agreed, it is not a place for the giverment,but then again why are they in 95% of the programs their in?
FYI, it’s a health care mandate, not a takeover. People will be required to buy insurance. If you cannot afford insurance, there will be subsidies for you. Most health care will be provided by private insurers and providers.
Hillarycare was a takeover. Read the fine print — heck read anything at all — and you’ll learn the difference.
It’s not Constitutional. Even if it is a good thing, which I don’t believe in this case, there is no provision in the Constitution to allow this. So how can it be justified???
The push in our technology/industrial base is incalculable and grossly unsung. It was one of the best investments the nation ever had, even though disasterously pennywise pound-foolish pols have hijacked and wrecked NASA”s original plans and visions.
James Greenidge
Queens NY
lgm: If its going to save the country money, then why does the congress need 1 trillion dollars to fund it? I assume the insurance plans will have to meet government standards to be eligable for the subsidies. That makes the government in control. This plan is a disaster. It is a government take over and will INCREASE unemployment as more and more private insurers go bankrupt.
You are an idiot if you can’t see this coming.
And even if you don’t take the government insurance, you will pay taxes to fund it. You will also still have to suffer all the negatives because the doctors and hospitals will be swamped with those who don’t have to pay for the services. And if its so great and works so well, WHY IS CONGRESS EXCLUDED FROM IT???
Why don’t GOP plants read something besides TPM.com before rehashing that leftist drivel here?
lgm,
Since when does a savings of $2000 to $3000 dollars per family (Obama’s campaign rhetoric) cost $ 1 or 2 trillion dollars. Your a math expert. Please show me the math.
Rags #32, absolutely dead on. in 1966 when a solid democrat congress with a democrat potus swept through medicare and medicaid, these same wise democrats scoffed at bob dole who said these measures would bankrupt the u.s. and the dems said they would never reach 1 billion dollars per year. barely 40 years later we spend 2.5 trillion dollars on these 2 programs, and these same or similar math whizzes say paying for 15 – 40% more uninsured people will only cost 130 billion per year more (1 trillion over 10 years). who do they think they are fooling. they spend a billion dollars hiring the ad agency to sell america on this nonsense. they spend a billion on allah’s trips to spread the word of the new koran. 1 trillion is 1 million million dollar bills folks, or 3,333 dollars for every man woman and child in america.
I’m not saying the health care plan is cheap or even good. All I’m saying is that it isn’t a takeover.
If MM would call’em correctly, she would be taken more seriously. Maybe Andrew Sullivan would drop the “Malkin award” for wacky right wing commentary.
Why should a successful and celebrated author, columnist, commentator and blogger like MM take writing and journalistic research advice from anyone outside that field? That would make no sense whatsoever.
lgm, it is a takeover. How dense can you be? The government will be controling every sector of healthcare. The only reason it is not called a “takeover” is because obama didn’t use that word. And YOU bought the propoganda. AGAIN. If idiots like Sullivan would stop acting like reporters for pravda under stalin, they would see that as well. They never question ANYTHING obama says.
What is wacky about calling a mandate, a takeover? What is wacky however is thinking that medicine is not already socialized. It has been for a long, long time.
What I want to see is Republicans saying that they will REPEAL every one of OBAMA’s wacky programs. I don’t want to see them complain about socialism, then watch all the programs stay with them in power.
BTW lgm if you can force “mandates” on the medical industry you ARE taking it over. Its a freaking game of sematics.
And you completely ignored the questions about cost. And the congresses exemptions.
We’re not seeing what you’re saying about the health plan at all, just comments once again about how you feel about Michelle.
So, is this quote an indication that you are opposed to the plan? Or are you being coy about keeping the argument focused on the word usage?
I just posted this on another thread, but it seems to belong here…
I have a question…maybe someone can enlighten me. Why does the government always have to make things so dang complicated??? (tax code, healthcare plan, etc.) Why, in the name of all common sense, doesn’t the government just spend that trillion or so that they want to use to overhall the entire healthcare system…and just use it to cover the uninsured citizens??? Those who already have insurance, leave it alone. Take all the money they were going to use to destroy the insurance industry and use it for government funded insurance, like medicare, just for those who don’t have it. What am I missing??? I know that won’t help odumbo socialize our healthcare system, but it would SAVE it! Oh, never mind.