Stimulapalooza: 3.6 Million Jobs Lost is “Quite Positive;” Update: Errors galore

By Michelle Malkin  •  October 16, 2009 03:54 PM

Conn Carroll at Heritage’s Foundry blog breaks down the stimulus spin from the White House today:

The Obama administration released the first hard numbers on how many jobs their $787 billion stimulus package has created or saved on Recovery.gov today. The number: 30,383 jobs from roughly $16 billion worth of stimulus contracts awarded directly by federal agencies.

Crunching the numbers, that comes to $533,000 per job “saved or created.” To put those 30,383 jobs in perspecitve, consider that the U.S. economy lost 263,000 net jobs just last month and has lost 3.6 million net jobs since President Barack Obama was sworn into office.

But the administration also claims that federal contractor spending is just one portion of the overall stimulus “buckshot.” Last month at the Brookings Institute, Vice President Joe Biden claimed that White House computer models showed their stimulus plan had already saved between 500,000 and 750,000. And just how accurate are these White House economic models? Well, when the White House was pitching its plan to the American people, White House economic adviser Jared Bernstein wrote a report claiming the stimulus would keep unemployment under a peak of 8%. And what have actual Bureau of Labor and Statistics shown? A a 26-year record high of 9.8% unemployment rate.

FAIL.

***

Error-palooza:

Gaffes in federal reports this week about stimulus have called into question the government’s ability to accurately track how many jobs are being created by the massive $787 billion Recovery Act.

The data in Thursday’s reports were filled with mistakes, including an error that made it look like a French vaccine maker received the largest stimulus contract, $1.4 billion, when in fact it has gotten an award one-100th the size.

Government research organization OMB Watch said its assessment of the reports revealed many inconsistencies in the job data.

“The data is rife with mistakes,” said Craig Jennings, senior federal fiscal policy analyst at OMB Watch. “When you put out data that hasn’t yet been checked, it undermines transparency, because you are putting out wrong information.”

…A mistake in the very first contract listed on the site prompted doubts about the reliability of the reports.

Recovery.gov erroneously reported Thursday that French vaccine maker Sanofi Pasteur had received $1.4 billion in stimulus funds from the Department of Health and Human Services. The company topped the site’s list titled “Largest federal contracts in U.S.”

When CNNMoney.com first asked about the contract Thursday, a spokeswoman from Sanofi Pasteur suspected the $1.4 billion figure was a mistake. HHS spokeswoman Vicki Rivas-Vazquez said the number on recovery.gov was erroneous and the actual amount was $10.4 million.

Sanofi Pasteur said Friday that $10.4 million is the correct figure.

“We anticipated errors in the reporting and so informed many reporters beforehand,” said Edward Pound, spokesman for the Recovery Board. “This is the first time this kind of reporting is being done. These reports are being reviewed by federal agencies and recipients to catch any errors or problems.”

The Recovery Board has the tall task of compiling all of the data, and is spending $18 million revamping its Web site to manage all of the information.

OMB Watch said its review yielded “really weird job numbers,” including many discrepancies within the reports themselves. For instance, Jennings said OMB Watch found that many companies said in a narrative portion of their reports that it was able to retain several employees because of stimulus funds, but the “jobs created” column read “zero.”

The Recovery Board aggregates its jobs data from the “jobs created” column to display the total number of jobs saved or created. Jennings speculated that recipients might have been confused about the scope of the term “created.”

“I would not stake any sort of claims on those job numbers,” said Jennings. “We don’t know what’s going on there.”

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Posted in: fiscal stimulus

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Comments


  1. #1
    On October 16th, 2009 at 3:57 pm, TheWriteJerry said:

    $533,000 per job? I could use that sort salary! Sign me up!

    (What do you mean I’m not from the right side of the tracks…?)

  2. #2
    On October 16th, 2009 at 4:03 pm, Flyoverman said:

    The White House’s argument will appeal to the same folks outside of Cobo Hall waiting for their “Obama Money.”

    Their propaganda efforts are truly pathetic.

  3. #3
    On October 16th, 2009 at 4:06 pm, verogolfer said:

    3.6 million jobs lost is “positive” in one sense. With this administration,we’re lucky there wasn’t 5.6 million jobs lost. We might look back to only 3.6 million lost as “the good old days.”

  4. #4
    On October 16th, 2009 at 4:12 pm, Rogue Cheddar said:

    Positive for the Dems because “The more on the dole, the more we control.”

  5. #5
    On October 16th, 2009 at 4:17 pm, WaterBoyz said:

    Figures lie and liars figure.

    It is kinda like the “Pay Czar”.
    He made million$ and million$ per year before taking the “zero salary” czar job. That in itself is suspicious. Anyway, he is telling the CEO of BofA (and others) to give up his $$$.

    I’d tell the PZar to stick it where the sun never shines.

  6. #6
    On October 16th, 2009 at 4:18 pm, Truesoldier said:

    If you took the $533,000 per job and divided by $40,000 you would end up with 13,325. Not a very good outcome is it.

  7. #7
    On October 16th, 2009 at 4:19 pm, John Deaux said:

    See, it’s all about the multiplier effect. That’s how I manage to save an average of 2.3 million jobs a day without spending any money.

  8. #8
    On October 16th, 2009 at 4:20 pm, tre said:

    Who’re you gonna believe!? The Heritage Foundation, an evil Conservative group. Or our Nobel Peace (of crap) Prize winning President!?

  9. #9
    On October 16th, 2009 at 4:24 pm, sonofdy said:

    WAHOOO WE SAVE OR CREATED 30,000 JOBS!!!

    YYYYAAAAYYYY

    oh and we lost 3.6 million at the same time

    WWWWWAAAHHHHHOOOOOOOO 30,000 JOBS!!!!

    :roll:

  10. #10
    On October 16th, 2009 at 4:25 pm, sonofdy said:

    BTW pointing out the 3.6 million jobs lost is racist.

    /liberal mode off.

  11. #11
    On October 16th, 2009 at 4:27 pm, prendad said:

    I see that Obama continues to fly the wings off of Air Force One on his never-ending campaign tour to continuously stroke his own ego. One fire and brimstone speech after another. That’s the only thing he knows how to do. And, he has promised us that he will “never give up”. Stay tuned as the “I’m Saving the World Single-Handedly” tour comes to a location near you!

  12. #12
    On October 16th, 2009 at 4:30 pm, John Deaux said:

    sonofdy,

    You’ll always be happy if all you have is good news.

    That glass is half full, buddy.

  13. #13
    On October 16th, 2009 at 4:31 pm, jsr said:

    I think what people are forgetting is Obama had the intention and aspiration to create jobs, which should have won him the Noble Prize in economics if there was any fairness in this world. Plus compared to all the hope he has given to poverty stricken people the world over, $787 billion is a small price to pay. Maybe next year.

  14. #14
    On October 16th, 2009 at 4:35 pm, WarTip said:

    Hey now, in all fairness there is one sector of the economy that is growing at record rates.

    Government jobs up. Government spending up. Bill attached pork up. United we Serve volunteers up. Acorn money up. Union monies paid out up. Government efficiency … well now we’re jes cookin’ wid gud gulf gas huh?

    Now where did I put that dang chart so as I can figger jes how many jobs I have saved today!?

  15. #15
    On October 16th, 2009 at 4:36 pm, tbear44 said:

    Vice President Joe Biden claimed that White House computer models showed their stimulus plan had already saved between 500,000 and 750,000.

    Would that be anything like the global warming computer models?

  16. #16
    On October 16th, 2009 at 4:45 pm, sonofdy said:

    On October 16th, 2009 at 4:30 pm, John Deaux said:
    sonofdy,

    You’ll always be happy if all you have is good news.

    That glass is half full, buddy.

    I am just STOKED that obama replaced 1 out of every 120 jobs he lost.

    yay somebody!!!

  17. #17
    On October 16th, 2009 at 4:46 pm, thetoysurgeon said:

    Yet my income tax return must be spot on….

  18. #18
    On October 16th, 2009 at 4:47 pm, right_on said:

    “We don’t know what’s going on there.”

    Yeah, well…a lot of us suspect what’s going on.

    How many members of the Obama administration have had years of experience cooking the books, hiding losses, exaggerating positive trends? They are practiced in covering the truth.

    Why should we expect this to be any different? We can also expect the corruptocrats in congress to continue to provide cover, and excuses. It helps their bottomline during their re-election campaigns.

  19. #19
    On October 16th, 2009 at 4:47 pm, thetoysurgeon said:

    When are those 3.6 million marching on DC? We need to join them if they do…

  20. #20
    On October 16th, 2009 at 4:49 pm, thetoysurgeon said:

    I also heard those 30,000 jobs are part time.

  21. #21
    On October 16th, 2009 at 4:49 pm, graysonret said:

    You’ve got a rookie skating on thin ice, flanked by “advisors” more interested in power and profits than helping the country. Sooner or later, the ice will give in, and he will “fall”, unless he finds some way, like Chavez and his other heroes, to keep the WH regardless of what happens. Either way, this country is in for a rough ride.

  22. #22
    On October 16th, 2009 at 5:06 pm, WarEagle82 said:

    Uh, could someone just write me a check for $500,000 and the government can keep the change. I am willing to be flexible here.

  23. #23
    On October 16th, 2009 at 5:18 pm, Rob said:

    Why in the heck can’t people take care of themselves?

  24. #24
    On October 16th, 2009 at 5:23 pm, walterc said:

    “We don’t know what’s going on there.”

    New motto to put on the money under a picture of the White House and/or the Capitol Building.

  25. #25
    On October 16th, 2009 at 5:25 pm, Republicanvet said:

    Last month at the Brookings Institute, Vice President Joe Biden claimed that White House computer models showed their stimulus plan had already saved between 500,000 and 750,000. And just how accurate are these White House economic models?

    The National Weather Service heavily uses computer models to predict the weather and issue forecasts.

    …and they still can’t predict what will happen in 12 hours.

  26. #26
    On October 16th, 2009 at 5:54 pm, tarpon said:

    I was arguing with some idiots today, the problem is like Ronald Reagan said what they know isn’t true … A product of our media.

  27. #27
    On October 16th, 2009 at 6:04 pm, AlohaGuy said:

    The Recovery Board has the tall task of compiling all of the data, and is spending $18 million revamping its Web site to manage all of the information.

    Or 18 trillion dollars, or something.

  28. #28
    On October 16th, 2009 at 6:05 pm, Pasadena Phil said:

    Almost all of the 3Q earnings, about 80% of which exceeded analyst expections, (snort) were the result of cost cutting (closing plants, offices and employee reductions). Pfizer today announced more layoffs today and their stock price rose.

    In this “green shoots” jobless recovery, every piece of catastrophic news is deemed to be positive because it is a “lagging” indicator. Unemployment is a true lagging indicator but… the private sector has not produced a net new job since 1997.

    Do you know what a leading indicator is? Capital expenditure. It continues to be way down and shrinking. The “recovery” is going to be jobless because no one is investing in job creation. Just an explosion of new deficit government spending paid for by running the Treasury currency printing presses full time at full speed.

    The banks are in worse shape than ever as they quietly add toxic debt onto the pile that they never reduced. BofA today, in reporting staggeringly negative numbers, revealed that they aren’t keeping up with the interest payments on their TARP debt. And then there is that nasty “shadow inventory” of mortgage defaults that are escaping be reported by being held in limbo for political reasons. The

    FDIC is predicting a flood (several hundred) more bank failures by next summer and they are out of money.

    Mid-size banks are soon to be whacked by massive failure of commercial loans to malls and office buildings.

    States will soon be forced to absorb a massive new unfunded federal mandate from what looks like will be a $2 trillion Obama/GOP-care bill. And the biggest states like CA, NY, NH and already bankrupt.

    Small business is being strangled by new fees, licensing, lack of credit and declining business. Small business creates every single new job in the private sector, when they can create jobs. They can’t with the government at war with entrepreneurs (like me).

    Face it folks, we are in very deep trouble and our one-party system is determined to wreck the economy. This stock market rally has occurred with investors standing on the sidelines while the Goldman Sachs crowd redirects TARP money into the stock market with their proprietary high-frequency trading programs re-inflate the asset bubble. There is no ownership behind this trading activity, it’s just “power trading” concentrated in the hands of a very small group of interests.

    The S&P 500 is now trading at 20 p/e which is as rich as at the peak of the dotcom bubble.

    Does anyone want more? I can do this all day. This is what I do for a living.

    I challenge anyone to come up with even one piece of evidence that there is an economic recovery underway. Just one.

  29. #29
    On October 16th, 2009 at 6:08 pm, Pasadena Phil said:

    Correction:

    And the biggest states like CA, NY, NH NJ and already bankrupt.

    (My apologies to my birth state NH. Very sorry. Didn’t mean to start a panic.)

  30. #30
    On October 16th, 2009 at 6:08 pm, AlohaGuy said:

    I challenge anyone to come up with even one piece of evidence that there is an economic recovery underway. Just one.

    Here, or in China?

  31. #31
    On October 16th, 2009 at 6:11 pm, bradley said:

    Well, the lack of jobs isn’t bothering ME one bit. I’m busy taking a bath and getting dressed and getting ready to go downtown to get my free car, my free big-screen HD TV, my free house, and all that free money Obama’s promising. Why work, when nirvana is FREE and already HERE? YAY. Now, how big a Kobe steak am I going to have for dinner tonight….

  32. #32
    On October 16th, 2009 at 6:12 pm, Pasadena Phil said:

    I might have been wrong about BofA being behind on TARP interest payments. I might have them confused with Midland bank who reported this in a footnote yesterday. The important point is that the banks are cooking their books.

  33. #33
    On October 16th, 2009 at 6:17 pm, Pasadena Phil said:

    AlohaGuy: I can give you a pretty extensive list of problems with the China story too. Yesterday, the Treasury released the results of an internal review declaring that China is not manipulating their currency. The message? Our government is now in such trouble with Treasury auctions that they have to tell big whoppers like that so as to not offend one of our biggest enemies.

    China is in a deep hole on energy since they consume twice as much energy per unit of output that we do.

    Their iron ore is crap which is why they import so much of it despite having large domestic sources available.

    I can go on but I’ll stop.

  34. #34
    On October 16th, 2009 at 6:24 pm, Pasadena Phil said:

    BTW, George Soros (relax) made a good point at the Buttonwood conference today. What is widely perceived as a dollar crisis is really more of a global paper currency problem. Although central banks are clearly diversifying their reserves away from the dollar, they are diversifying more into commodities than they are in other currencies. That puts the entire developed world in the same hole as the US.

    The Chinese invented paper money many centuries ago and ran into the same problem and abandoned it after their economy collapsed. Without economic discipline, paper money is no substitute for gold.

  35. #35
    On October 16th, 2009 at 6:36 pm, DagneyT said:

    I’m still waiting for someone from the administration to explain how they quantify a “saved” job! Until then, it goes in the same category as elves & fairies!

  36. #36
    On October 16th, 2009 at 7:05 pm, WaterBoyz said:

    Wasn’t there some state in the extreme Northwest that “created” a 1000 jobs? The part I do remember was that those jobs only lasted a week. But were posted in the “jobs created” column. Since the “job” is still there, there is no “job loss” even thought the actual people are long gone.

    Wonder if Charlie Rangel is working on that report team?

  37. #37
    On October 16th, 2009 at 7:37 pm, prendad said:

    All this and Obama says that “I have just begun”. Yipes. But of course when “Nancy and I are mopping up the mess left behind, we don’t want people telling us how to hold the mop”.
    Ha Ha Ha.
    And a yuck yuck too.

  38. #38
    On October 16th, 2009 at 8:11 pm, yohannbiimu said:

    This whole “created or saved jobs” nonsense would have been a national joke if the Dubya administration had tried to tout something like that. The hysteria of it would have crushed to the point of being an international embarrassment. It’s shocking how the media just reports this “created or saved” idiocy as if it were something legitimate.

    The fact that so few of these “created or saved jobs” are being reported ought to destroy the credibility of Obama’s administration and raise the scorn of the media to atmospheric heights, which increases the incredulity of the media’s total lack of integrity that they simply report it as if it were completely normal.

    It amazes me that Obama hasn’t been ruined by all of his failures and his rank stupidity and incompetence. The only thing that holds this disgusting charade together is the “news” media’s reporting that all’s normal, and we have nothing to worry about.

  39. #39
    On October 16th, 2009 at 8:51 pm, plymouthacclaim said:

    Millions of jobs lost is positive !?!?!?

    One might think they were trying to destroy the economy.

  40. #40
    On October 16th, 2009 at 9:59 pm, On-my-soap-box said:

    There is a bridge project in south Florida that is supposed to have “created” 3,200 jobs. A super lib in the office, where I was laid off and he was not, said “the stimulus is working, Obama “created” 3,200 jobs.” When I was laid off, along with over 10% of the office I looked at him and said, “We all thank Obama, even those of us who did not vote for him, for helping us keep our jobs.”

    Dumb stare was all I got – go figure.

    Oh, unemployment is 10.7% in Florida 1% higher than the country.

    THANKS STOOOOPID PEOPLE.

  41. #41
    On October 16th, 2009 at 10:11 pm, On-my-soap-box said:

    On October 16th, 2009 at 6:05 pm,
    Pasadena Phil said:
    States will soon be forced to absorb a massive new unfunded federal mandate from what looks like will be a $2 trillion Obama/GOP-care bill. And the biggest states like CA, NY, NH and already bankrupt.

    UMMMMM, not all states. Harry Reid is makin a provision to protect his state. He knows he is in trouble come election time so he is in heavy bribe mode. Of course, he can never make good on his promise; he is a liberal Democrat.

  42. #42
    On October 16th, 2009 at 10:48 pm, Truesoldier said:

    Gaffes in federal reports this week about stimulus have called into question the government’s ability to accurately track how many jobs are being created by the massive $787 billion Recovery Act.

    Oh so biden is running the show over there.

    “We anticipated errors in the reporting and so informed many reporters beforehand,” said Edward Pound, spokesman for the Recovery Board. “This is the first time this kind of reporting is being done. These reports are being reviewed by federal agencies and recipients to catch any errors or problems.”

    And the government wants us to believe that they will be better at policing Wall Street…..

  43. #43
    On October 17th, 2009 at 9:21 am, MichaelO said:

    If they spent all that $16 billion on building fences and walls along the southern border, it would have created a lot more than 30,383 jobs AND been easier to track.

  44. #44
    On October 17th, 2009 at 10:52 am, oldcollegeguy1980 said:

    For weeks, months, I have followed the FDIC debacle with interest. Over that period of time several things became apparent.

    First, the FDIC was writting larger and larger checks on an account that was already largely overdrawn.

    Second, the methods they were using to “solve” these problems were not solutions.

    Third, that behind the scenes, there had to be secret talks, pleadings, threats, etc., to get banks to play along, that were obvious to the skilled bankers that it was nothing more than a shell game.

    Fourth, the public wants blood, so the government has been dangling Ken Lewis as a possible sacrifice to the mob. Other have been hinted at. But what did he do wrong? If they attempt to sacrifice him and it falls apart, will the emperor be shown to have no clothes.

    Last week there were no FDIC takeovers. This week only

    The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. was appointed receiver of San Joaquin Bank, based in Bakersfield, Calif. It had $775 million in assets and $631 million in deposits as of Sept. 29.

    I suspected that last weeks hiatus from closures was more than just a end of fiscal year turnover. I suspect now I was right

    The FDIC is backed by the government, and deposits are guaranteed up to $250,000 per account. But the deposit insurance fund has fallen into the red. The FDIC board recently proposed to have U.S. banks prepay about $45 billion of their insurance premiums – three years’ worth.

    That plan isn’t a long-term remedy for the depleted fund. But it would spare ailing banks the immediate cost of an alternative idea: paying an emergency fee for the second time this year. And the FDIC still has billions in loss reserves apart from the insurance fund.

    I call BS on that last line. If they have billions in loss reserves then they are not in the red. And would not have to put the touch on the remaining banks for this advance payment scheme.

    Like any thief or liar sooner or later the story simply does not add up. The FDIC is getting sloppy with their lies. This my friends is a real sign of our economic predicament. When the regulators lies are so apparent the end is really closer than we care to think about.

  45. #45
    On October 17th, 2009 at 2:52 pm, SomeOtherSteve said:

    Yeah, with the precision and effectiveness of the Recovery Act, I can’t WAIT until these bozos control healthcare. I have to admit one thing, government control of healthcare might make me take better care of myself to keep away from them.

  46. #46
    On October 18th, 2009 at 4:34 pm, Illbay said:

    Gaffes in federal reports this week about stimulus have called into question the government’s ability to accurately track how many jobs are being created…

    Okay, I’m gonna say what I think most people are thinking: This has nothing to do with “ability to track” anything, it has to do with the fact that the White House has become a gigantic propaganda machine, spinning out distorted data and misinformation to support the Obama administration position on whatever.

    You’re never going to get the straight skinny from these people; it’s always going to cast whatever the current policy du jour is, in the most favorable light.

    You let the Chicago Democrat machine into D.C., that’s what you’re going to get.

  47. #47
    On October 18th, 2009 at 5:44 pm, cheapseat said:

    the recovery may well be in full swing aloha and pasadena, because soooo many small business people are closing their shops and soon to be closing more, and putting their dough in the stock market. 10% unemployment, but the stock market is very bullish. why? the 10% unemployment is here to stay unless someone is willing and able to clear out 2/3 of all regulations on business, and 1/2 the taxes. 2010 is the year of zero inheritance tax and will see the biggest boom in transfers in the form of stock/bond portfolios in our history. but to those who believe jobs are coming back, you got your change, and you better start looking for gubmint jobs.

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