Ballot Watch: Waiting for the results that everyone tells us mean nothing; Update: GOP sweep in Va.; voting machine glitches in NY-23; Obama says he’s not watching; Update: GOP gov wins in NJ/Va; Update: Hoffman concedes
Guess it’ll be an early night for all the Democrat water-carriers in the media who have already filed their preemptive pieces downplaying whatever happens tonight after the polls close and the ballots are counting.
Here’s a bit of the Obama-as-a-factor-but-not-as-much-as-we-want-you-to-think analysis of exit poll results.
Politicker reports on the return of “It’s the economy, stupid:”
Forty-six percent of Virginian voting Tuesday, as Republican Bob McDonnell and Democrat Creigh Deeds faced off for the governor’s mansion, say that the economy and jobs are the most important issue to their vote. One in four indicate that health care reform is their most pressing issue, 14 percent said taxes were upmost on their minds, and 8 percent suggest that transportation woes were most pressing.
“The economy as the number one issue probably bodes well for the Republicans in Virginia,” says CNN Senior Political Correspondent Candy Crowley.
Here’s another Democrat screaming about GOP “extremism” in the NY-23 race.
The Hill shows Hoffman ahead at the finish line:
Jim Geraghty jumps ahead of the pack and calls Virginia for the Republicans:
With the polls in Virginia closing in one minute, the Campaign Spot Decision Desk gets a jump on the competition and declares the winners in the statewide races: Bob McDonnell wins the governor’s race, Bill Bolling wins the lieutenant governor’s race, and Ken Cuccinelli wins the attorney general’s race.
Early turnout indicates that Cuccinelli is the winner of the 2013 governor’s race as well.
In NJ, pollster Pat Caddell blows the whistle on Democrat fraud:
Democratic pollster Patrick Caddell blew the whistle Tuesday on vote fraud in New Jersey’s race for governor, citing “chicanery” in the bitterly contested gubernatorial race between incumbent Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine and Republican Chris Christie.
“I’m convinced Christie has the votes,” Caddell told Fox News host Neil Cavuto. “The question is whether he has a lead that’s steal proof, as I call it, with all the things going on.”
“That’s rather damning,” Cavuto replied.
“Well,” Caddell replied, “you’ve got to be damning when you see what’s going on. You know, I attacked Republicans when they were intimidating voters not to vote — the American people have a right to have their votes counted right, and not played with.”
Caddell, who has conducted polling for the likes of former President Jimmy Carter, then-Sen. Joe Biden, and former California Gov. Jerry Brown, pointed to unusual absentee-ballot voting patterns in some areas of the state.
Stay tuned.
***
Here are the live-updated Va. governor’s race election results from the Virginia Board of Electionsv.
GOP candidate McDonnell wins in Va.
With 80 percent of precincts reporting:
Robert F. “Bob” McDonnell 910,309 60.50%
R. Creigh Deeds 592,662 39.39%
Write In 1,442 0.09%
GOP sweeps other top Va posts: Wins for Republican Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling and Republican Attorney General-elect Ken Cuccinelli.
***
NY-23 election results will be live-updated here.
Watertown Daily News reports that four St. Lawrence towns suffered machine glitches that may delay vote tallying until tomorrow.
In NJ, GOP candidate Christie is crushing among independents.
***
Update: 8:53pm Eastern. Via Lorie Byrd, Obama claims he’s not watching the election results. He’s watching basketball instead:
President Obama is not planning to watch Tuesday nights election returns, Obama aides Robert Gibbs and David Axelrod tell CNN.
Obama is more likely to watch Tuesday night’s Chicago Bulls game than any political coverage, according to Axelrod.
The president’s senior staff have also decided not to hold a watch party to keep an eye on election returns as they come in.
Well, of course, since the results Don’t Mean Anything, there’s no need to watch!
Perfect symbolism: The American people speak across the country on Election Day. Obama switches channel from elections to…basketball. Deliberately not paying attention — just like he did with Tea Party protests.
***
10:11pm Eastern – AP has called NJ for GOP candidate Christie, but not seeing anyone else calling it yet. Meanwhile, Hoffman is trailing Owens with about 20 percent of precincts reporting.
NBC, Fox all call for Christie.
10:41pm Eastern. Latest on NY-23:
Owens 49%
Hoffman 46%
Scozzafava 5%
11:20pm Eastern. Voting machine problems create court order in Fulton County NY:
NewsChannel 9 has learned voting machines in Fulton County, which is a part of the 23rd Congressional District, have been impounded, after the machines were not working property today, the Fulton County Board of Elections confirms.
The county was forced to switch over to paper ballots.
They were not planning on counting any votes Tuesday night. We’re told by the Board of Elections, the paper ballots cannot be touched until the absentee ballots are opened a week from Tuesday.
The Board of Elections says they do not know how many people voted, but there are 22 districts in Fulton County.
It’s a squeaker with Hoffman “closing in:”
The Plattsburgh attorney has 57,050 votes compared to Conservative Doug Hoffman, a Lake Placid CPA, with 54,538 votes.
Dede Scozzafava, a Republican who dropped out of the race Saturday, has 6,982 votes.
There are more than 10,000 absentee votes to still be counted.
Owens now leads in Jefferson, St. Lawrence, Franklin, Clinton and Essex counties.
Hoffman leads in Lewis, Oswego, Oneida, Fulton, Hamilton and Madison counties.
Owens is maintaining a 48 percent to 46 percent lead.
Four precincts in St. Lawrence County are having mechanical problems and total results for the county won’t be available tonight.
***
12:23am Eastern. Hoffman concedes. Stand by for more post-race analysis.
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Fox news projects Christie over Corzine in NJ. More good news.
Fox has called NJ Gov for Christie.
emjem24-
Doesn’t matter, you will be involved wherever you go, and believe me, the enemy is everywhere. There is much to do.
Thank you for your service.
Dang, two commenters beat me to it, heh.
Unfortunately, things don’t look good for Hoffman. A 7% difference with 31% of precincts reporting is not where I’d want to be if I were running. I don’t think it is statistically impossible to over take Owens but Hoffman will have to win very big in a lot of precincts to catch up.
We should all be prepared to thank Gingrich and Steele for their stellar work in electing Democrats to the House. JOB WELL DONE!
Politico calls it for Christie.
Who really believes Obama is not watching or interested now?
Now to see what 23 does.
That’s okay. I’ll take 2 out of 3, these days, with the odd one out, being a district, rather than a governorship.
zeroangle, why did I think you were a janitor at MIT? Didn’t you say something about that in the monster thread? Did I get the school wrong? Is it Princeton?
And the night is still young, vote-wise, graysonnet. Hoffman is slowly creeping up on Owens, it’s still in play.
A conclusion I reached about 25 years ago. I didn’t want to go back anyway, because they would have wanted to claim about 15 years worth of back state taxes for when I was in the military (even though I’d been a Texas resident for that time). I still like to visit and I do love the Adirondacks, but I’d never live there again.
Dang. And I was so looking forward to see that I think I pooped my pants look on Gingrich’s face
It ain’t over yet, jangar. I’d love to see that look too.
It’s now less than a 3 point difference in 23.
Oh, I’m hanging in there, PurplePeep. Haven’t folded “my cards” yet.
Anything to shut up that has-been.
A couple of the southern counties haven’t reported in on the NY23 race yet and they tend to run pretty conservative, so he isn’t dead yet. OTOH, I see 4 St Lawrence precincts are holding on to their ballots to see how many Owens will need to put him over the top.
corkie:
It’s really rather amazing that over the countless threads you are the very first one to pick up on that. I commute. Anyhow, yay Christie!
Well, it is a sitting on needles and pins situation! Hoffman’s still slowly gaining and I’m guessing there might be some good news in the rural vote, which is usually late to come in. Could make the difference. Gonna be close either way.
Ummm…Michelle, you might want to fix your update –
I’m pretty sure you have Hoffman and Scozzafava reversed!!
Oh, if there were a way to get rid of those pesky city slickers…
Can’t believe that Hoffman is “trailing.” Does anybody know how the Scozzafava supporters shaked out? Who did they go to? I’d be curious.
Zero:
I thought you were a contractor overseas. Boy, do I gotta catch up. Perhaps, you can be in two places at once.
Uh, I think something got transposed here.
Hopefully we haven’t been too affected by the error here. It’s Hoffman with 46% and Scuzz with 5%.
RWR
http://www.rightwingrocker.com
Not only that, but what kind of voter votes for a candidate that dropped out of a race, especially one so heavily publicized? Talk about throwing your vote away!
hoffman has proven himself a fighter. I will not believe in anything other than his win in ny23. With all those machine irregularities, there was likely fraud involved and even if the count doesn’t favor him, i would seriously question those results. my prediction, is that in the end hoffman will win ny23
Assuming NY-23 were a two-way race (which it isn’t) Hoffman will have to take at least 53.25% of the remaining votes to pull this out. I don’t know which precincts have and have not reported. But he was polling very strongly in some areas.
He’s not trailing by much. 4 percentage points at most. Even if Doug loses, this is an amazing showing. Plus there are several districts that will report all at once, and they may move the numbers the other way.
Gotta love the liberal Republican eating the single digit number though. Proof positive that the conservative movement isn’t some big joke.
RWR
http://www.rightwingrocker.com
Now you’ve gone and insulted the “City Slicker Community”, jangar!
You can bet there’s huge fraud in favor of the Democrat.
Here in NJ, Christie won as governor 49%-45%. Take out the fraud factor, and you’re probably looking at something more like 57%-42%.
Looks like it will factor into NY-23 in a much bigger way.
RWR
http://www.rightwingrocker.com
4) Can I have my money back now?
I starting to think there’s a strong likelihood we might have to wait til tomorrow for the scoop on 23.
BS. He’s sitting there conjuring up his next move to screw Americans.
Agreed. Good night.
Anybody know anything on Maine’s referrendum on gay marriage?
FIFY
Not hitting the sack yet, jangar, I just don’t know how many votes there are left yet to come in. We’ve got 2/3 of the precincts, but that’s not a vote total. If the late reporters tend conservative it’ll likely be positive news for Hoffman.
Still, ya can just as well wait til morn and see how it all shakes out. If it’s very close, the results will be contested and, as you know, that can take a looong time!
Oh, count on that!
Well, tomorrow, we’ll hear one of two things from the socialists: The elections weren’t important, or, there were “inconsistencies” in the election process and the votes were to be recounted, with Acorn running the recount.
NY-23 is starting to appear mathematically impossible for Hoffman. Scuzzyface actually picked up a few points in the recent count and Hoffman slipped.
With 71.1% of precincts reporting Hoffman will have to get 54.8% of all remaining votes to carry the election.
Looks like Gingrich and Steele are going to get their wish that a conservative NOT take this seat…
Let the revolution begin. A Republican BIG WINNER IN BLUE STATE NJ!!!!
Its over for the dems. We take back the Congress in 2010. We will elect CONSERVATIVE candidates. This socialist administration is on their way out.
But will either realize that they should have either kept their fingers out of it or, better yet, backed the conservative? They screwed the pooch on 2 counts.
Not if Newt has anything to say about it…
How did you work out that number, WE82?
I’m also considering some of the problems in the vote count, e.g. this late item:
Fulton County machines break; court order issued
Could this be another nail biter? How many districts have yet to report? Are they all rural or urban? What factor did fraud play? I’d be curious.
The other factor was that I think there were about 18% of voters (from the Scozzafava supporters) undecided about who to vote for. I’m not sure about the number but I wonder if some of those 18% voted for Owens to spite Hoffman.
I guess we’ll find out in the morning. Sigh…
Anyone else have DirecTV? Fox News is completely screwed up. The sound is choppy and so is the video. Almost like watching my family’s old 70′s home videos on 8mm. It appears speeded up. Kind of like old kung foo movies. All other channels on DirecTV are fine. Did Obama initiate his Net Neutrality rules already?
It isn’t over yet. Don’t underestimate the “enemy”. We have to keep the pressure up…more tea parties, and more letters/e-mails. Don’t give them any respite. We have them “backing into the ropes” but the pressure has to be continued. Let them know that America isn’t a good place to start changing everything from democracy to a totalitarian government.
I have come to the conclusion that Newt is either sniffing glue regularly, or else someone is slipping ‘ludes into his morning roughage. Either way, he’s done as far as I’m concerned.
PurplePeep,
I just ran a simple model through a spreadsheet. It is crude but it should be fairly accurate.
Yup, emjem, too many questions to figure, it’ll be very late tonight or early tomorrow before things are clear. I don’t know the local electoral makeup, so I don’t if the votes are there for Hoffman or not. If things hold, it’ll be Owens by a few points.
On November 3rd, 2009 at 11:20 pm, Dan Lee said:
When Christie is doing his acceptance/victory speech, the crowd started chanting “Yes We Can”! AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
Oh NOOonnnoooooOOOOoooooo! This is not a referendum on Obama though..
Earlier this evening I got a phone call with a recorded message from Gingrich, asking for $100-$200 for a donation to the “Presidential Coalition” and a DVD…he actually had the nerve to talk about “good, solid conservatives” and “clear, conservative viewpoints”…
Normally, I’d hang up on such a call, but I waited for a live person to come on asking me for the donation.
My reply: “I can’t afford it right now. And besides, how can I take Gingrich seriously when he stumped for Dede Scozzafava? She’s just like Obama.”
The guy on the line replied, “Yeah, I’ve heard that a lot tonight.”
Wonder why.
I was shocked to see Christie win in NJ. I was certain voter fraud would get him there. Maybe it was a rouse to distract from fraud in NY-23.
And I shouldn’t have said “mathematically impossible” but rather “extremely unlikely.”
But, if Hoffman has a REALLY BIG FAMILY and they haven’t counted those precincts yet he could turn it around. If only he were a Mormon!
Prepare for LDS flames in 3…2…1…
I agree, but you will see the pressure continue to be placed on dems. Most notably their horrific economic policies will continue to be their own self-imposed downfall. We are NOT a socialist Country. The Manchurian Candidate’s secret is exposed. Thursday there will be a massive rally in Washington DC. This has only begun for conservatives. Let’s just hope that Repub pols have heard the conservative base loud and clear. We want our Country back, and we don’t want half-azzed RINO policies.
Shame we couldn’t have a conservative win in NJ.
Don’t think for a minute that Christie is an indication of any sort of conservative gain. We had a conservative in the primaries, and the Republicans wouldn’t let it happen.
RWR
http://www.rightwingrocker.com
Yeah, it’s kind of difficult when you’re factoring in people. If we have someone local to NY23 hereabouts, they might be able to shed some light on how the unreported votes might go. Are they from areas that are pockets of conservatism, liberal or evenly spread? I dunno.
I suspect Hoffman’s going to wait til tomorrow to make a statement either way.
Watching Christie’s speech on DirecTV/Fox News right now.
Picture and sound are as clear as ever.
RWR
http://www.rightwingrocker.com
PurplePeep,
That is not why I consider the model crude. I don’t know the actual votes cast but rather the percentages. If there are ~500000 people in NY-23 and 50% are eligible voters and 50% of them turn out then Hoffman and Owens are separated by only about 3400 votes right now.
But if my assumptions are off by a few percent then the number of actual votes could change dramatically. Crude, but probably fairly accurate in the end.
Hoffman has picked up only 1/10th of a percent in the last few minutes. That isn’t going to carry him over the top unless there are a lot of missing votes. And we all know how “missing ballots” are counted…
Now that’s Change We Can Believe In. Hehehehehe.
The FOOL.
The voters are trying to send message to the incompetent-in-chief and to Pelosi / Reid. And he is showing indifference!
I bet, if the results were favorable to him, he would have been mmm-mm-mmmm!
Did all the text of all the posts just turn RED???
Is anyone else seeing this site with red print?
REDRUM! REDRUM!
For what it’s worth Owens is dropping slightly and Hoffman is picking up slightly and there’s this:
HOFFMAN CLOSING ON OWENS
“Democrat ahead of Conservative by 2,512 votes
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 3, 2009
Democrat Bill Owens is leading in the 23rd Congressional District race.
The Plattsburgh attorney has 57,050 votes compared to Conservative Doug Hoffman, a Lake Placid CPA, with 54,538 votes.
Dede Scozzafava, a Republican who dropped out of the race Saturday, has 6,982 votes.
There are more than 10,000 absentee votes to still be counted.
Owens now leads in Jefferson, St. Lawrence, Franklin, Clinton and Essex counties.
Hoffman leads in Lewis, Oswego, Oneida, Fulton, Hamilton and Madison counties.
Owens is maintaining a 48 percent to 46 percent lead.
Four precincts in St. Lawrence County are having mechanical problems and total results for the county won’t be available tonight.”
Yes…red print. Maybe to celebrate blue states turning red.
Maybe that’s a good sign!
The Commies must be attacking Michelle’s web site! I feared they would strike at election time! To arms, to arms!
AWAKE! FEAR! FIRE! FOES! AWAKE!
FEAR! FIRE! FOES!
AWAKE! AWAKE!
–J. R. R. Tolkien Quote info
Conventional wisdom would have that most absentee ballots are from military members away from home and military members vote heavily for conservatives.
FWIW
Yes. It looks like a lot of the stuff that was in black is now red. It’s not illegible, but it really is a strain on the eyes.
For what it’s worth, in Maine as of 11:19 pm, the marriage amendment was 51-48% in favor of traditional marriage.
Oh, the text is back to black. Is that an Amy Winehouse song?
I guess Michelle’s defenses were sufficient to repel the invaders…
So far I don’t think any media is making a call on NY-23, for what that’s worth.
Don’t trifle with Michelle. Her powers are awesome.
No, the Stones – “I see a red text and I want it painted black”…
The gay/lesbian movement will sue, find a sympathetic judge and have the results overturned. When you lose to a referedum, turn to the courts. It’s a trend today.
Hoffman hasn’t really picked up any significant vote percent over the last hour. He has been at 45.5% to 45.6% since the reporting started. With 83% of precincts reporting it doesn’t look good for the man.
10,000 absentee ballots could swing the election but does anyone seriously consider judges in NY will allow the votes to be counted if the election is on the line?
“Till they glow”
MMM MMM MMM …. November 3rd elections.
A happy day to be alive.
The Liberals just dropped 4 of 5.
MMM MMM MMM …. November 3rd elections.
The live stream from both Hoffman and Owens HQ are on this page:
LINK
WE:
I thought I was the only one. Then I thought, maybe it’s that second glas of White Zinfandel I just had (I toasted Christie’s victory). I decided to restart my computer after that.
I gotta say, whoever is the webmaster of Michelle’s site needs improvements. Such as the blog count scheme, the graphics, along with the big to small to big again text.
You gotta say one thing: there’s always something new on Michelle’s site.
Amy Winehouse was “Back to Black.”
I like The Stones better but she does have quite a voice.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dKtK5p8UdE
Been watching the military channel since a little after 9pm, watching ships being built. Got to get to bed shortly. Here in this house, we watch educational or sports shows only. TV is a learning tool. Favorite show is Sunrise Earth on HD theatre. Great with coffee. Hopefully, more good news in the morning. You all have a good restful night.
Hoffman’s gotta pick up 3-4,000 votes to catch up, dunno if they’re out there yet tonight or tomorrow. No calls from the media on the race yet.
Not much of a fan but I like her cover of Will You Still Love Me Tomorrow.
PurplePeep,
Assuming they end up at the 49/45 split now and they are 4000 votes apart then Hoffman would have to take slightly more than 70% of the 10,000 absentee ballots to win. It could happen but I wouldn’t bet the farm on it.
And if the Dems throw out 3,000 absentee ballots then it becomes mathematically impossible for Hoffman to win.
FYI there are not 10,000 absentee ballots. 10,000 were sent. Less than 6,000 had been recieved as of today though more could make the postmark deadline.
Well, if there are fewer than 10,000 absentee ballots then Hoffman is pretty well done.
Winehouse has an amazing voice. I never pictured her as a 20-something English girl. It is a shame she is most likely going to kill herself with booze and drugs before she hits 30.
I have no idea how many votes are still to be reported, WE82, but I wouldn’t wager the farm on it either.
Think I’ll check things out in the morn. Good news is always great to wake up to and bad news can always wait til the morn – so it works out OK either way to sleep on it.
PurplePeep,
There is good news. God is still on His throne and Obama will answer to Him one day.
Good night.
Reminds me of Leno’s ACORN commercial where the ‘drug entrepreneur’ says “Gotta take this call – it’s Amy Winehouse.”
And a G’nite to you, too.
I see Fox is projecting Owens as winner. That’s enuf bad news for tonight!
Hoffman expected to concede in NY23. Steele and Gingrich allowed Scozzafava to infiltrate and destroy. Let this be a lesson to RNC leadership that they made this loss happen and if they want more of it keep it up, we will be happy to help.
If I were Hoffman I would wait a day before making any concession.
There is little to be gained by rushing to concede even if it would take a miracle to pull it out at this point.
Too late. Hoffman conceding now.
Wow.
Well, at least NY-23wasn’t decided by some moistened bint lobbing a scimitar…
Yeah, I just heard CNN is projecting Owens to be the winnder in the NY 23 race. I think it’s a bit early to project. Even though there’s about 80-88% of districts reporting, this is still a close race.
CNN is also reporting that Hoffman has called Owens to concede. A bad idea in my opinion.
If this is true, this Dem win signals the further slide into the abys for New York. The handouts, subsidies, and gimme gimme promises by Owens won out. I guess those few thousand Scozzafava supporters were the spoilers of the race.
What a pity. New Yorkers thinking the federal government will help prevent their further slide into oblivion. Good luck with that, suckers. Yet another reason I live in Colorado now.
Really too bad. Hoffman would have been the attitude adjustment this district could have used.
Those missing Fulton County ballots should go heavily to Hoffman but they’ll more than likely be too little too late.
winnder=winner… spell check is our freind.
I don’t understand how they can make a call until all the ballots are counted. C’mon now… let the voters be heard. This smells fishy.
Hoffman’s loss is what the media will focus on, rejection of conservatism by sober voters, sticking with the tried and true, and so on. There is no question that if the GOP establishment had not screwed this up so royally, Hoffman would have won. But a loss is a loss and we will have to eat it. This is a big disappointment, no doubt about it.