they’d rather bury their head in the sand and think they can declare victory based on polls and the economy 11 months out.

Yes. I don’t understand it. They should at least be thinking about hedging their bets a bit.

Oh well, all the better for my side.

Argh. Concur.

So many new dynamics that could throw all the best laid plans & predictions askew.

What new dynamics?

I wouldn’t bet the farm either way, but I’d hang on to my hat because I expect there to be more stuff coming along to hit the fan. Some of the stuff might be sunshine & roses, some won’t be.

Look. I completely agree that many factors could disrupt the weak recovery that I’m predicting. Cap&Trade was the biggest, but I don’t see that as likely for some time if at all. A liberal healthcare system scares me, but I don’t really see that having much of a negative impact prior to Nov 2011. I think healthcare will get worse over time and economic growth will be dampened in the future, but I don’t think it will disrupt the weak recovery (I’ll be wrong, however, if the stock and bond markets immediately react strongly negative to it – but I don’t think they will).

For the record, I’m predicting positive GDP between now and the next election and unemployment to drop below 8%. This doesn’t mean we’ll have a great economy, but it’s better than most conservative politicos are predicting right now. I just don’t want them basing strategy on it.

Next, are most of you still convinced that the economy will be in the gutter in November 2011? Or are some of you starting to realize that it’s possible that we could have a year’s worth of positive GDP and unemployment diminished to a mere 7.5%?

No…they’d rather bury their head in the sand and think they can declare victory based on polls and the economy 11 months out. You are exactly right on wrt this. Oh well, all the better for my side.

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corkie said:
Next, are most of you still convinced that the economy will be in the gutter in November 2011? Or are some of you starting to realize that it’s possible that we could have a year’s worth of positive GDP and unemployment diminished to a mere 7.5%?

No comment on all that, Corkie. I’d just add it’s really a whole lot tougher gazing into the economics crystal ball than it was, say, in the 60s & 70s. So many new dynamics that could throw all the best laid plans & predictions askew.

I wouldn’t bet the farm either way, but I’d hang on to my hat because I expect there to be more stuff coming along to hit the fan. Some of the stuff might be sunshine & roses, some won’t be.

Happy not to be a pro economist.

chapoutier said:
there is the Wine Spectator I get every couple weeks

Chap’s talkin’ about me there. I drop in every fortnight to see what vino he’s pouring down the ol’ hatch.

So, do most of you still think that Paulson’s TARP program won’t receive any repayment for any of the loans issued during the Fall 2008? Sorry, that’s a trick question, the program has already received repayment from many of the participating banks.

Next, are most of you still convinced that the economy will be in the gutter in November 2011? Or are some of you starting to realize that it’s possible that we could have a year’s worth of positive GDP and unemployment diminished to a mere 7.5%?

Yes, I would not want marked bills. The funds must be untraceable for my purposes.

Oh, and thanks for reminding me. The serial numbers must not be consecutive.

Is there anyway that I can mediate a cease fire between you?

They enjoy it.
I find it all quite entertaining.

WE82: check the last page on the Christmas thread for your fan mail.

P.S. Why would you care if I sent you marked bills?

Is there anyway that I can mediate a cease fire between you?

I know that neither of you wants to waste any additional time on the other.

WarEagle82, chapoutier is a smart guy that adds value to MM’s blog by keeping us honest – I’m happy he’s here. It’s also quite obvious that he’s not a communist. Can I convince you to lighten up on him for awhile?

chapoutier, if WarEagle82 lightens up, can you avoid casting dispersions?

I’m open to other ideas on this.