CBO already revising its Demcare math
Oops.
How many more bad estimates did the CBO make in its rush to get its Demcare scoring out yesterday?
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) corrected its estimate of the Senate health bill’s costs on Sunday, saying it would reduce deficits slightly less than they’d predicted.
In a letter to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), CBO Director Douglas Elmendorf said that the nonpartisan budget office had overestimated the extent to which the legislation’s new Independent Payment Advisory Board would bring down the deficit.
While the CBO’s estimates of the board’s and overall bill’s impact in its first 10 years of the legislation are correct, Elmendorf wrote, the program’s effects on deficit reduction during the second decade of the program were overestimated.
“CBO expects that the legislation, if enacted, would reduce federal budget deficits over the decade after 2019 relative to those projected under current law—with a total effect during that decade that is in a broad range between one-quarter percent and one-half percent of GDP,” Elmendorf said. “In comparison, the extrapolations in the initial estimate implied a reduction in deficits in the 2020–2029 period that would be in a broad range around one-half percent of GDP.”
The full CBO correction is here and it underscores how dismal the government’s record is in projecting the true costs of massive entitlement programs:
All told, CBO expects that the legislation, if enacted, would reduce federal budget deficits over the decade after 2019 relative to those projected under current law—with a total effect during that decade that is in a broad range between one-quarter percent and one-half percent of GDP. In comparison, the extrapolations in the initial estimate implied a reduction in deficits in the 2020–2029 period that would be in a broad range around one-half percent of GDP. The imprecision of these calculations reflects the even greater degree of uncertainty that attends to them, compared with CBO’s 10-year budget estimates. The expected reduction in deficits would represent a small share of the total deficits that would be likely to arise in that decade under current policies.
Based on this extrapolation, CBO expects that Medicare spending under the legislation would increase at an average annual rate of roughly 6 percent during the next two decades—well below the roughly 8 percent annual growth rate of the past two decades (excluding the effect of establishing the Medicare prescription drug benefit). Adjusting for inflation, Medicare spending per beneficiary under the legislation would increase at an average annual rate of roughly 2 percent during the next two decades—well below the roughly 4 percent annual growth rate of the past two decades. It is unclear whether such a reduction in the growth rate could be achieved, and if so, whether it would be accomplished through greater efficiencies in the delivery of health care or would reduce access to care or diminish the quality of care.
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Categories: Health care
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Day late cbo. Those in the senate are going to vote for this come h#ll or high water. They DO NOT CARE! Control over us American’s is the name of the game.
L
These projections are nothing more than wishful thinking. The Democrat Party’s takeover of Healthcare will be a travesty on all counts, human and fiscal. And they know it.
Tis way to late, the democraps have now captured about 25% of the economy with banks, auto and now health care – next is energy [cap and tax] – then as the famous rabbit said ‘that’s all folks’, welcome to the United Socialist Rathole.
Haste makes math mistakes.
PLENTY of math mistakes.
I have seen this happen before.
How dare this Congress not realize that, nor care.
Enjoy your jobs in McDonalds come time for your re-elections. If, that is, McDonalds is hiring seniors anymore.
One of the great things that has happned regarding this whole process is we have seen how Obama has politicized the CBO office. Any idea that it is clean and free from influence is now gone.
The projection of 2% growth is all anyone needs to know.
What they are really saying is that there will be no further improvement in medical care. No new technologies, and over time, no new drugs. This is the undisclosed cost of this type of legislation. The elimination of medical achievements. That precious little thing that was once called American Exceptionalism will no longer be a part of the health care industry.
In 2030, health care will look the same as it does today. There will be no further improvements because there will be no market to sell them in.
“In 2030, health care will look the same as it does today.”
Sorry but you know this how?
Countries with full blown socialized medicine do not look like they did 50 years ago.
How much of that dubious reduction in the federal budget deficit gets absorbed by the states in the form of unfunded federal mandates? That’s even worse. Government is bankrupting itself from the bottom up. Localities go belly up first by order of El Presidente and his enabling Congressional eunuchs.
Clear thinking people know that voting on this bill at 1:00 am on Monday morning before Christmas is a sham. It is going to pass but what is the rush?
Multiply by ten.
I think Nelson will vote “no”
It’s already quite clear to some of us who’ve lived in other countries, e.g. UK, Canada.
they won’t get one there, their precious illegal aliens have those jobs sewn up….
Elmendorf probably cooked the books worse than the accountants for Enron and WorldCom. I’m sure the fascists in the current administration can’t wait to open up the cost reducing medical/detention centers for the senior citizens of this country. There will be nothing to worry about folks just head into the showers, where have I heard that before in human history?
*Elmendorf has made a few trips to the White House; Perhaps he has not heard that P-BO is “keeping score”; Expect him to make another visit this week!
*As I always say with politicians and any government agency, “Don’t trust, then verify why”; You will never be disappointed!
***
Sounds like GLOBULL WARMING math to me! What a sham. And they know it quite well.
***
John Bibb
***
The CBO get its numbers from thin air. I don’t believe them any more that I believe the EPA, CDC or any other gov agency because they all get funded from the gov. What the gov giveth, the gov can take away.
I wonder if there is enough knowledge of history for the Obama/Democrats to remember what happened to Fascist Mussolini during the forties. The Dems really don’t care about this country.
Surprise, surprise the CBO has finally looked ten years ahead and still gotten the math wrong.
Like it matters what the CBO says about it. Anybody who can read can see that NO federal spending or entitlement program has EVER come in at or under budget.
This Congress is going to ram this down our throats if it is at all possible for them. We’ll be paying for abortions with our tax dollars too. I can’t say it loud enough, often enough or clearly enough. Do EVERYTHING YOU CAN to push the criminals in Washington to doing what they are supposed to do, what we want them to.
Then do EVERYTHING YOU CAN to see that conservatives retake the Congress in 2010. Contribute time, contribute money, write letters, post signs, whatever!
Now that is hilarious!
When has any government run program ever provided greater efficiencies in the delivery of its product or service than what could be provided by the private sector? Answer: with the exception of the military and, to a lesser extent, state and local agencies involved with policing and firefighting, NEVER!
The CBO is lying about deficit reduction from this healthcare plan. The correct answer is there will be no deficit reduction. There will be a huge deficit expansion combined with a lower quality of healthcare, resulting in millions of premature deaths. This will be a LOSE-LOSE proposition of the highest order.
They expect a cost reduction simply because they plan on denying medical care to seniors – the group that requires the bulk of spending. That’s going to make their Social Security numbers look a lot healthier, too.
You beat me to it.
Well done.
Thank you.
Absolutely correct.
To translate and summarize the socialists’ BS and lies:
Blah, blah, blah…higher taxes…blah, blah, blah…more votes for us…blah, blah, blah…CBO bu!!$h!t…blah, blah, blah…power…blah, blah, blah…control…blah, blah, blah…higher costs…blah, blah, blah…decline in quality of medical care – except for us, of course…blah, blah, blah…fooled those g_ddamn fool voters again – how good is that?!…blah, blah, blah, blah….
And it didn’t even take me 2,000 pages.
Orwellian.
The question is: Did the CBO score the actual bill in its entirety (that no one has seen) or did they just start with a number and proceed by adding and subtracting based on the revisions (the only part anyone has seen)?
Oh Boy, count me in. Regarding these letters we are to write, should they be strongly worded letters or pleading letters?
And about the signs, should they be in crayon or ink, on paper or plastic?
I just can’t wait. /sarc
now that the “law” is being passed, our black robed gods will interpret it to mean abortion is a right, insurance is a right, and only those who actually produce something in this world will have to pay for this mess. sounds fair to me. AMERICA’S NEW NAME OBAMAVILLE!
I wonder if anyone has ever done a study of how often the CBO’s estimates match the reality?