Why did Beau Biden really drop out?; Update: Cook Political Report classifies DE-Sen. race “Solid Republican”
Daddy has been grooming Beau Biden for the Senate from time immemorial.
To smooth his son’s path, Joe Biden installed his old crony aide, Edward Kaufman, as a placeholder when he gave up his seat to take the vice presidency.
Today, the son flipped the father — and the Democrat Party — the bird:
In more bad political news for Congressional Democrats, Beau Biden, the vice president’s son and the party’s top choice for a Senate candidacy in Delaware, announced to his backers Monday morning that he would not seek the Senate seat vacated by his father, Joseph R. Biden Jr., last year.
The decision followed a confused story out of Delaware Sunday that first had the vice president saying his son, currently the state’s attorney general, was showing little interest in the race. The vice president’s office then challenged that account, but clearly the younger Biden was on the verge of announcing his plans.
In an e-mail message to his backers, the attorney general suggested that he was remaining in his state post in order to continue pursuing an on-going child abuse case.
“My first responsibilities are here in Delaware,” Mr. Biden’s statement said. “I have a duty to fulfill as attorney general – and the immediate need to focus on a case of great consequence. And that is what I must do. Therefore I cannot and will not run for the United States Senate in 2010. I will run for reelection as attorney general.”
One party official said that Mr. Biden’s decision was a personal one and not a reflection of the challenging climate for Democrats. But his move to remain as attorney general leaves Representative Mike Castle, a popular former Republican governor, in command of the race and offers the Republican Party a chance to take over a seat that has been securely under Democratic control.
Do you buy his stated rationale — that he needs to stay in Delaware to prosecute child abuse cases? It seems as doubtful and as calculated as Bill Ritter’s stated rationale for dropping out of the Colorado gubernatorial race. I am quite sure there are plenty of passionate, staff lawyers at the Delaware state attorney general’s office handling the actual prosecutions. But as with Ritter, who invoked a variant of the Doing It For the Children card, this rationale is designed to deflect deeper probing into the real reasons for bailing.
It’s possible he really just doesn’t want to do his father’s bidding — and jumped at the chance to avoid becoming another lifelong entrenched incumbent like Dad. (If so, he fooled a lot of people at the DSCC.)
Or maybe there’s something else.
More than ever, the public is paying attention to the culture of corruption. A bruising Senate campaign in the Era of the Tea Party — and in the wake of the Massachusetts miracle — would bring uncomfortable light to bear on Biden family cronyism.
“Average Joe” Biden wants you to believe he hangs with the regular guys at Home Depot. But the BFFs (Best Friends Forever!) of the Bidens wear pin-striped suits, not coveralls. They carry briefcases, not toolboxes. And you can bet they’re not driving pick-up trucks.
One lucrative cloud seeded by “rainmaker” William Oldaker showered generous benefits on both Hunter Biden and his dad. In 2005–06, the Chicago-based personal injury law firm of Cooney and Conway paid Oldaker, Biden & Belair $220,000 to push its tort reform proposals. At the same time, Cooney and Conway gave Senator Biden’s political campaigns more than $70,000. The firm’s founding co-partner John Cooney told the Chicago Daily Law Bulletin that he struck up a friendship with Biden in 2004 over a legislative battle before Biden’s Senate Judiciary Committee. Cooney was part of a small group that strategized with Biden on campaign matters at his Delaware home. Cooney and Conway represent clients claiming asbestos-related injuries. Biden sided with the trial lawyers, actively opposing measures to reduce frivolous lawsuits and reduce the returns on future lawsuits.
Other heavy-hitting law firms that pitched in to Biden’s campaigns: Baltimore-based Peter Angelos, whose law firm gave Biden $156,250; Wilmington-based Young Conaway Stargatt & Taylor, which kicked in $127, 979; and Pachulski Stang Zielhl & Jones, which donated $145,625, according to The American Lawyer. Philip Howard, author and founder of Common Good, a bipartisan coalition that advocates for legal reform, summed up his record: “Senator Biden has a pretty clear record of being close to the trial lawyers. To people who are interested in restoring reliability to the legal system, he’s probably unlikely to be the champion.”
Disgraced trial lawyer Richard Scruggs donated $11,500 to Biden in 2008. After Scruggs was convicted of attempting to bribe a federal judge, Biden tried to show his ethical bona fides by donating the money to a worthy charity. But Biden couldn’t steer clear of nepotism. The money ended up with the National Prostate Cancer Coalition—a charity where, The American Lawyer pointed out, Biden’s son Hunter sits on the board of directors.
Another Biden family pal in the trial lawyers’ community: Jeff Cooper. With his partner John Simmons, the 39-year-old Cooper built one of the biggest asbestos litigation firms in the country. SimmonsCooper, based in Madison County, Illinois, has donated a whopping $196,050 to Biden’s campaigns since 2003, according to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics in Washington, D.C. In that same time frame, the firm poured $6.5 million into lobbying against the same tort reform bill that fellow asbestos litigators Cooney and Conway opposed—and which Senator Biden worked hard to defeat. Without a hint of irony, Cooper extolled Biden’s anti-tort reform stance: “He understands the plight of the little guy and is against huge corporate interest.” But what Biden did was help fuel lucrative business for the tort bar. When courts in SimmonsCooper’s home base in Illinois finally started cracking down on what had become “America’s No. 1 judicial hellhole” for filing out-of-control tort claims, the firm turned East. And in Joe Biden’s Delaware, they created a new sanctuary. The Wall Street Journal explained:
SimmonsCooper is a big asbestos player, and Madison County was until recently one of America’s meccas for jackpot justice. But the story gets better: Mr. Biden has been helping the tort bar turn his home state of Delaware into a statewide Madison County.
SimmonsCooper made hundreds of millions of dollars on asbestos cases in Madison County, but that started to change in 2004. The business community helped to elect conservative Lloyd Karmeier to the Illinois Supreme Court. Madison County Circuit Judge Daniel Stack also took over the asbestos docket, was determined to clean house, and began dismissing suits filed by residents outside his jurisdiction.
SimmonsCooper and other firms started shopping for a new legal goldmine. And where better than Delaware? Many companies incorporate there, which means a list of defendants usually includes a Delaware target. Beginning in mid-2005, SimmonsCooper began transferring its suits to Bidenland.
The trial bar’s strategy has been to overwhelm Delaware’s once-sensible legal system, taking advantage of rules that pressure companies to settle. In the 22 months following SimmonsCooper’s first asbestos filing in Delaware, the state was hit with 412 suits, primarily from SimmonsCooper and fellow asbestos giant Baron & Budd.According to the Madison County Record—a legal journal that has doggedly followed this story—clerks in Wilmington were “working nights and weekends to keep up” with the filings. The trial lawyers drew sympathetic judges that have already overseen big verdicts against defendants, primarily Detroit auto makers. Plaintiffs have obtained certain procedures that raise the costs of defense, and restrict defendants’ ability to take discovery.
Cooper first befriended Biden’s sons, Hunter and Beau, before deepening his financial and political relationship with their dad. There’s a personal connection: Cooper’s wife went to high school with Hunter Biden’s wife, Kathleen. And as Biden the Elder was carrying water for the trial lawyers in the U.S. Senate, SimmonsCooper was working another Biden channel through the Wilmington, Delaware, law firm of Bifferato, Gentilotti & Biden, where Joe’s son and Hunter’s brother, Beau, was a partner. SimmonsCooper found Delaware an attractive new magnet for its asbestos litigation racket because many of the firm’s defendants included clients who had incorporated in the state.
SimmonsCooper recruited Beau’s firm to work as co-counsel on Delaware asbestos litigation cases. The Illinois firm steered dozens of cases Beau Biden’s way. He dropped an asbestos defense client to accommodate his deep-pocketed family friend. SimmonsCooper then forked over $35,000 to Beau Biden’s successful run for state attorney general in 2006. Steve Hantler, president of the American Justice Partnership Foundation, observed, “Delaware is fast becoming asbestos lawsuit central.…A tsunami of lawsuits being filed by the SimmonsCooper firm, along with the flow of campaign dollars to Delaware politicians is quite the troubling coincidence.”
Even more troubling was the financial partnership Hunter Biden and his Uncle James (Senator Biden’s brother) attempted to forge with SimmonsCooper. The Bidens approached SimmonsCooper with a proposition: Team up with the family to buy a hedge fund investment firm for $21 million. Cooper agreed to chip in $2 million in exchange for 10 percent interest. The Bidens negotiated the hedge fund buyout of Paradigm Global Advisors with business partner Anthony Lotito Jr. in 2006. As Paradigm chairman, Hunter Biden oversaw half a billion dollars of client money invested in hedge funds while remaining a lobbyist at Oldaker, Biden & Belair.
But things fell apart. In their haste to clean up the Biden image, they ended up with dirtier hands. According to Lotito, the Bidens pursued the venture to help get Hunter Biden out of the lobbying business before Dad launched another presidential campaign. The Madison County Record, which tracked the dealings of the Bidens and SimmonsCooper closely, laid out the timeline:
According to court records filed by Lotito, Joe Biden wanted Hunter Biden to find a different line of work because he couldn’t afford to run for president as father of a lobbyist.Lotito claims he and James Biden discussed Hunter Biden’s job prospects.
Lotito met James Biden in 2002 and they invested together in 2005, according to Lotito.
Lotito introduced James Biden and Hunter Biden to lawyer John Fascian[a], and the four began planning to buy Paradigm Capital Management.
Majority owner James Parks had started Paradigm in 1991 and successfully promoted it as less volatile than most hedge funds.
Everyone agreed that the Bidens and Lotito would form a corporation to buy 54 percent of Paradigm for $21.3 million in cash.
They would install Hunter Biden as chief executive officer at a salary of $1.2 million.
In April 2006, they formed LBB Limited Liability Corporation.
In May 2006, SimmonsCooper invested $1 million.
In June 2006, according to Lotito, the Bidens told him to stay away.
In August 2006, according to Lotito, the Bidens formed a corporation, executed a promissory note for $8.1 million, and purchased Paradigm’s assets.
In September 2006, Lotito signed an agreement relinquishing his third of LBB.
He sued the Bidens in January 2007, alleging fraud and breach of fiduciary duty.
Lie down with shady partners, get up with a public relations nightmare. Lotito maintained that the Bidens cut a secret deal and tried to fraudulently trick him into signing away his interest in the LLC that they had formed together. In court filings, Lotito’s lawyer asserted that the Bidens used their political clout to intimidate his client: “Ultimately, the Bidens threatened to use their alleged connections with a former U.S. Senator to retaliate against counsel for insisting that his bill be paid, claiming that the former Senator was prepared to use his influence with a federal judge to disadvantage counsel in a proceeding then pending before that court.”
The Bidens shot back that Lotito had neglected to mention that the lawyer he connected them with, John Fasciana, was a crook. Fasciana had been convicted in July 2005 on federal charges of conspiracy and wire and mail fraud over a scheme to cheat Electronic Data Systems (Ross Perot’s computer services company) of millions of dollars. Fasciana was sentenced in 2008 to four years in prison, but has appealed the case. He sued the Bidens for nearly $200,000 in legal fees; they countersued Fasciana for overbilling him and committing fraud by concealing his criminal conviction. Hunter and James Biden also countersued Lotito in February 2007 seeking $10 million. The Bidens asserted that Lotito “hid debts and falsely claimed he held securities licenses to lure them as partners in the planned $21.3 million acquisition,” the Washington Post reported. “Had James and Hunter Biden known the truth about Anthony Lotito, they never would have gone into business with him,” their complaint alleged.
Where did this leave SimmonsCooper, which had kicked in half of a $2 million investment at the request of the Bidens? The Illinois firm had withdrawn from the deal after watching $1 million of its investment allegedly squandered by Lotito. The investment “converted to debt,” which Hunter and James Biden then attempted to shift to Lotito. A New York judge didn’t go along with the Bidens’ attempt to play the victim card. In May 2008, he rejected their bid after concluding they should have vetted the fund more carefully and performed their own due diligence. Cutting through the ploy, the judge ruled that the Bidens’ counterclaims “seek only to foment uncertainty and chaos between the parties in the event that plaintiff is successful in presenting the main claims.…Such pleading will not be countenanced.” Moreover, he ruled, “Certainly defendants do not claim that the law permits sophisticated investors to rely on whatever representations a potential advisor makes without the need for a diligent inquiry by defendants, and that such representations are actionable if they wind up to have been faulty.”
In January 2009, court papers announced that the legal fracas had been settled confidentially —preventing any disclosure or discussion whatsoever regarding the nature of the settlement or the subject matter of the action. The record did note that the lawsuit was resolved “without cost to any party.” For anyone paying close attention, however, the cost to the Biden family’s “just folks” reputation was clear. Alas, the settlement didn’t end the sordid story for the Bidens…
Beau Biden is young. Perhaps he’s taking a pass on 2010 and biding his time ’til public disgust over Beltway back-scratching and backroom deals dies down.
Hopefully, he’ll be waiting a long time.
***
Update: Bye, bye, Biden dynasty. The Cook Political Report now classifies the DE-Senate race a “Solid Republican” win.
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If he is as inept as his father, I think we know why. At least he was smart enough to see the writing on the wall.
Why did Beau Biden drop out?
I suppose speculation and assigning motive to others is one way to go, but until more is uncovered, his reason, believable or not, will just have to stand.
Maybe another shoe will drop.
Perhaps the lad does not want to get “Browned”. If the heavyweights in Massachusetts could not hold a Kennedy Throne could a Biden Lightweight in Delaware do better? As with the Bush family I wish these Imperial Dynasties would go the way of the Hapsburgs.
I think they must believe that as a double negative makes a positive a double incompetent makes a competent. Yes Baby Joe stay in Delaware and prosecute child abuse cases.
Maybe Beau decided his soul was not for sale.
……………..Naaah! Hahahahahaha!
I’d like to give him the benefit of the doubt but if the old adage of “the apple doesn’t fall far from the tree” is true, he should stay in Delaware.
That, plus Joe Biden himself may be getting ready to reclaim his old seat; with the administration’s poll numbers declining daily, a near midterm turnover of Biden with Hillary is entirely possible.
Both compelling theories as to his reasons, but another obvious reason is that he would likely lose and a sure job as state attorney general is better than unemployment.
Note that the polls in the link are 2 to 6 months old. After the MA election he is toast.
I reserve the right to be delusional…
The notion of Biden staying to prosecute child abuse cases is a laugh. Many years ago, I was a child abuse social worker. Whenever I would take children out of the “home”, the very last thing ANY state prosecuter wanted was to be a part of it. At best I might get a “conference” with the child’s court appointed attorney outside the court room, just about 2 minutes before the hearing was to start. And judges never seemed too interested in deciding to remove the children, for as best I could ever determine, they didn’t want to be seen as “destroying families.”
Word on the street is that he too has a love child with Rielle Hunter.
Hillary is the one with hair? She ain’t no way tired is she? Time for a reset I guess-worked so well in Russia.
Better than with Helen Thomas I suppose. Who do these people think they are-NBA players?
Like most trust babies, he is used to waltzing in to opportunities like an inheriting prince. He might actually have to fight this time. Nah. Pass. Just “biden” his time for things to cool off.
I had no idea most trust babies join the National Guard and deploy to Iraq.
I’m betting poll numbers show that Beau could lose and they don’t want to give Republicans the headlines that it was a referendum against the VP and Obama.
The thought did cross my mind too that Joe could be preparing to resign and try to claim his old seat. Obama could very well be encouraging this if they really don’t get along, although I’d be watching for Obama to double-cross him and see to it that he loses to keep him as far away from the administration as possible. I don’t think Obama minds losing a few seats this year to Republicans. He knows his policies aren’t resonating with the American people and he needs someone else to blame. If Dems hold the Senate but by fewer seats, Obama can look like he’s really trying in 2011 and 2012, but it’s Republican obstructionism along with gutless moderate Democrats that’s holding him back. This sets the stage for a progressive surge in 2012 that will allow him to push forward on a far-left agenda with no holds barred. He won’t have re-election to worry about and he doesn’t really care about anyone else’s prospects as long as they help his legacy.
Between the deepened lines, swollen eyes and haggard expression, Hillary truly does look worn, defeated and over her head; but the Obama ad may think she’d shore up their sagging appeal among libs and women in time for 2012 if they move her into the VP slot now.
He may have simply decided that he enjoys what he is doing.
One other comment. Joe Biden is a liberal Democrat and he does gaffe, but I have always felt he is an American in his heart. Thus, while I disagree with him, I have no problem with him.
And yes Chap, young Mr. Biden did his duty above and beyond. Thank you for pointing that out.
Yeah, it must have come as a shock to him to be deployed to Iraq. If he wanted to see action, he would have joined the army in the first place.
Oh come on, even the British royals join their nation’s armed services! It’s hardly a novel “we’re-one-of-you” statement.
Are you really trying to denigrate JAG service?
Maybe he had a love child with Ellie Light.
I am denigrating the very concept of “honor” among Bidens. Everything they do involved lining their pockets behind a veneer of public service and personal honor. These guys don’t take gambles unless they have arranged the end result. There are no “Alamos” in the Biden history. It’s all “San Juan Hill”. They hunt big game in big game sanctuaries with photographers at the ready.
I hate to break this to you, but there have not been any “reservists” since 1976. There are full time soldiers and part time soldiers, but every Army NG and Reserve unit has had a wartime mission since the late 70′s.
An Army NG Infantry BN from my state was in Iraq longer than any other unit in the entire force structure.
When you sign up in the Guard or Reserve you should have no illusions about being deployed.
So he was shocked at being deployed to Iraq, yet doesn’t do anything unless the end result is already arranged?
Chap, I am sure Phil knows the insurgents were instructed never to place IED’s on any road he was traveling, shoot at any helicopters he rode in, or rocket/mortar the bases he was quartered on.
Yep, all arranged.
I’ll believe that there was honor involved when I see the proof. I just don’t see a Biden leading a landing at Omaha Beach on D-Day. These guys are in it for themselves.
Chappie and Flyoverman. I seem to have struck a nerve with you guys. Are you by chance trust babies?
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!
Oh…excuse me.
Dude, I went to Head Start as a kid, grew up on a small dairy farm, had a mother that loaded cardboard into machines at a box-making plant before she ruined the use of her hands (and back) and did not have one cent of my college or law school paid for by anyone other than me and my merit-based scholarships.
The nerve you struck was one that reacts poorly to manufactured cynicism and inane definitions of “honor.”
My comment of 12:07 p.m. says all that needs to be said.
He voluntarily showed up in a war zone where everyone is a potential target.
And yes you did stike a nerve, not because of your attitude about Biden but your implication that Reservists and National Guardsmen aren’t REAL soldiers.
Allow me to express my support for the National Guard and Reserve troops, all volunteers, who risk, and often give, their lives for our country.
Shame on anyone who denigrates their service.
You can’t lay the sins of the father on the son.
Unless it is a Kennedy, of course…
For some time now I have suspected that Phil was a fake conservative – a shill whose real purpose was to undermine support for true conservative leaders. He has now accidently exposed his hand. No true patriotic conservative would belittle the service of the thousands of Guard and Reservists who have bourn much of the burden of our wars in the Middle East.
Hmm, I think he needs to stay in the AG position because the next AG might want to send the whole family to prison.
It’s amazing how rich you can end up on a politician’s salary.
Yes, I do own the Brooklyn Bridge.
How did you end up a Democrat?
The booze, man…the booze.
Fine, you go to Home Depot, I’ll go to Payless, first one to see a Biden, call!
Now that’s what we like! Real Ted Kennedy enthusiasm right there!
I GIVE BEAU CREDIT FOR HIS SERVICE, BUT I ALSO SEE A HELL OF A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BEING AN 11b GRUNT, AND A JAG OFFICER.
I propose a toast to Chap!
It’s stupid to claim that his reason will have to stand.
They don’t.
What does that have to do with Pasadena Phil’s comment?
What does joining the National Guard have to do with waltzing in to opportunities?
It belies the notion that he only does things if they are easy or safe.
No it doesn’t.
There’s nothing difficult about a lawyer joining the JAG Corps. Unless, you know something about that knife and fork military training that I don’t. And what’s unsafe about being a JAG officer? Seriously, what are the actuary numbers?
Well, you get shipped off to Iraq, for starters. Maybe you think being separated from your family and home for 12 months, in a hostile country, is easy and safe.
Hopefully the Tea Party movement will keep this thing moving to the right. Complacency in the past has handed election after election to liberals and phony conservatives.
Brown was a good move for Massachusetts just as Christie was for New Jersey, but it cannot stop there. The next move must be further to the right, not back to the left.
RWR
http://www.rightwingrocker.com
I’m sorry. What percentage of JAG officers haven’t been safe if Iraq? Seriously, what are the percentages? How many have been through there and how many had their safety compromised?
That depends how much you like your family.
Of course it’s not easy for the family, but don’t try to change the word easy to unpleasant.
Encountering a buried, unexploded 155mm arty round wired to a battery or an incoming 82MM mortar round with “To Whom it may Concern” written on it.
Here is a serviceman in a “safe” profession. If he was in civilian life he would be in Facilities Management.
http://www.militarycity.com/valor/4463237.html
His loss is no less grevious.
Btw, use real logic when thinking about the dangers for a JAG officer in Iraq.
Please don’t use worried mother logic.
Don’t make me link to domestic construction worker deaths last week.
Kennedy dynastyBiden dynastyThank God!
Did you even bother to google “JAG officers killed” before you wrote that?
This took me all of 2 seconds to find.
Are you f–ing kidding me? Seriously?
I didn’t know we had a problem with IED’s killing domestic workers driving between locations. How often do domestic workers’ homes get mortared? Have you contacted OSHA?
Tell you what. You can go to Arlington sometime and mark the graves of everyone buried there who did not die a death worthy of your standards.
Give ‘em hell, Chap.
Did you actually think I assumed ZERO JAG officers had been killed in Iraq? How many have been through there? Why are you fixated on one side of the safety equation???? Seriously?
Of course I’m not kidding you. Deployments are always difficult for the family members, but deployments are often less difficult for the military member than their home life since they are suddenly only forced to take care of themselves.
That doesn’t mean that family separation isn’t unpleasant for the military member.
Seriously, you haven’t succeeded in making your point about Pasadena Phil’s original comment.
Are you implying that IED’s are the only risks to safety?
Are you implying that falling to one’s death is somehow safer than being killed by an IED?
Okay. What is your definition of “safe”, corkie? Your obvious implication is that being a JAG is safe. Or is it only relatively so? And in that case what are the percentages of lawyers that were killed in the line of working at a cushy private practice or as an AG? Even IF the two examples above were the only ones, dollars to doughnuts that is still a much higher freaking percentage than the lawyers who DON’T volunteer for service.
If we want to play the inane semantics game, corkie, “less difficult” does not equal “easy,” now does it?
You think members of the military on deployment that leave family back home are only taking care of themselves? Absurd. The only difference is that they are forced to try to take care of their family from 7,000 miles away, over spotty cell and internet connections.
Slices, bunkers and sand traps?
But the military is the sum of it’s parts-all are necessary. Those hero helicopter pilots who brought supplies and evacuated the wounded? It took an awful lot of “yard birds” to keep those hero pilots flying. It was a Signal Corp Officer-LTC who directed the defense of parts of Tay Nihn during the Tet Offensive of 1968. That would be a Signal Officer commanding cooks, mechanics, telephone/telegraph operators and such. They did a great job and stacked the dead.
All are necessary-the Army Infantry is just the better looking I might say.
The is a TAD bit of difference between jobsite hazards and a job where in addition to the inherent hazards of the job, there are people running around actively trying to kill you.
So yes, mitigating the hazards of a fall is different than mitigating the hazards of an IED backed up by an ambush patrol that rips through the area with 7.62 mm rounds and RPG’s after the IED explodes.
I almost died or escaped serious injury three times in training accidents as a Reservist in the U.S. and those experiences were NOTHING compared to the risks faced each day by those deployed.
True, true…..
One spends his life crawling around in the mud and slime, the other is an infantryman.
I’m a Delaware voter and I don’t have a favorable opinion of Beau Biden’s politics but I think he had to have had the words “that’s not Teddy Kennedy’s seat” resonate. I definitely don’t think Beau’s stupid enough to think the anti-incumbent sentiment couldn’t impact him.
As far as I know, his only accomplishment as AG to date (besides his JAG service overseas, which is a credit) is that he had Larry Sinclair arrested on charges from Delaware in June 2008. Soon after Joe was picked for veep, the charges were dismissed. Chicago has the “Chicago Way,” and Delaware has the (“don’t you know who I am?”) “Delaware way”.
I have a big problem with Rep Mike Castle (R*) though, despite the Cook report saying Delaware’s “solid Republican,” Castle isn’t solid in my view. *He takes pride in being a “moderate” and has done some no-no’s as far as I’m concerned.
Castle authored the new Semiautomatic weapons ban, wanted fed funding for stem cell research, and strongly favored Cap-and-Tax. So Delaware is very much at risk of a case of Michelle’s aptly-named “McCain Regression Syndrome”.
My guess is that 9/12′ers and TEA partiers feel the same way about him. I’m not sure if I can “hold my nose and vote GOP” for Mike Castle.
You mean the explanation that he is passionate about government service but believes that he is so crucial as a state AG that he cannot be spared for the Senate?
What must you be smoking to treat that howler with respect?
Flyoverman- Well said AND there aren’t all that many of us
Not sure if you were just intentionally playing on that phrase or not, but just in case you weren’t, the “solid Republican” only refers to the likelihood of them taking the seat in the election, not the strength of the candidate’s politics.
Everything about these people stink to the high heavens. Enough said.
Much higher difference? Puuleeze. It would be a rounding error.
It doesn’t matter if it’s “different.” From a measured safety perspective, the only thing that matters are the actuary numbers.
Doubtful the families of those two JAGs that were ripped to shreds would think so.
From what I can glean from the various sources, corkie, a JAG has at least a .05% chance of being killed in Iraq.
Extrapolate that over the number practicing in the US (about 1,143,000) that would mean that, unless you can come up with about 57,000 lawyers that have been killed since March 2003 here in the US for doing their job, Beau chose a more dangerous course.
Never join the Army. Your troops will frag you.
It doesn’t matter if those families think so or not.
Their grief doesn’t change the actuary numbers.
Well you didn’t glean well. There’s no way the number is that high.
You’re applying your incorrect number incorrectly. Existing death rates for lawyers need to be subtracted from that number in order to derive the additional risk of a lawyer deploying to Iraq.
I’ll stick to leading Marines into battle notwithstanding your stupid claim about Army troops.
Then again, nothing you stated about this topic made any sense so I wouldn’t expect this be any different.
If Corkie led Marines into battle I’m the captain of the starship Enterprise. Anyone who spent a day in basic training has more respect for his fellow servicemen than Corkie.
Come now valley,
Before corkie led his marines into battle he gave a stirring speech whereby he proved mathematically, with actuarial charts and powerpoint presentation in tow, exactly his many of them would have to get shot before they were as courageous as the average potato farmer back home.
It is being favorably compared to not only Patton, but also that awesome speech from Braveheart.
To equate civilan jobs in the United States with operations in a combat zone based on actuary tables is naive.
You take your tables and go visit the families of my old Command Sergeant Major, one of my unit’s First Sergents, one of my Scout Squad leaders, and two other former enlisted people from my battalion. You can’t visit the soldiers, because they are all dead. They did not die in a combat zone. But all of them had the same complaints, all died of cancer, and all had repeated exposure to Agent Orange.
They don’t show in any table, their names will never be remembered on The Wall, but they all died of a bloodless wound in Vietnam. Men who never took hostile fire were exposed to that deadly checmical and never knew it.
There are thousands who served in the Gulf who took the cocktail of anti- nerve gas drugs and mosquito repellent and suffer from Gulf War Syndrome. They are not listed as casualties either. Only recently was ths condition finally acknowledged.
In another five years we will start to learn what suprises are in store for this generation.
A combat zone is filled with hazards, diseases, stress, and risks beyond the obvious that never show up in your tables. That’s why anyone, civilian or military, who serve in those areas are worthy of our respect. They have mine
He probably uses Vista….
What does my specific quantification of safety have to do with my respect for servicemen?
Do you believe that the servicemen that make such official calculations for the military disrespect themselves? Do you think their job is evil or something?
The accuracy of my statements have nothing to do with whether or not those statements could be used to motivate spear tip warriors.
Or should I evaluate the accuracy of all your statements using the warrior motivation standard?
The fact that you grew up on a dairy farm couldn’t be used to motivate anyone so it’s obviously not true!
I get it.
If the hazard results in a death or injury then it sure as hell shows up in the tables.
Are you disconnected enough to think that I would disagree?
Your statement is true. Unfortunately, your true statement doesn’t support any of your factually inaccurate statements.
Well hot shot then take your comprehensive tables, use the data, write your Congressmen and get my soldiers who died of Agent Orange on The Wall and give their wives a death benefit, because their being in a combat zone caused their premature deaths. If they had not gone there, they would not be dead now.
And no I don’t think you give a d@mn about those who serve because to you they are an actuarial entry.
Having been in over 100 insurance companies, I have dealt with actuaries at length. You would definately fit in.
One other thing Corkie, remember the warning from Mark Twain:
“A statistic is like a woman of the night. Once you put it down you can do most anything you want with it.”
The entire Global Warming “consensus” is based on tables. The data is junk, but the tables are pretty.
Want to see the tables from 1961 on how “safe” Thalidomide was?
I’m sorry about these guys, but this has nothing to do with my statements.
Btw, let me know if you’d like to have a discussion about the statistical double edge sword such cases present.
I’ll tell all my buddies about this idiotic opinion of yours. I’m sure we’ll all get a good laugh.
What does it mean to be “in” an insurance company?
Why? Because I’m smart enough to understand the sound mathematical methodologies that are often used? Because I’m smart enough to understand the mistakes their making even if they don’t?
Or do you think they’re evil, and are implying I’m evil because I’d fit in?
No, it’s not.
What does junk global warming data have to do with my previous, factual statements?
Let’s discuss adverse drug effect studies. Let’s discuss techniques used to identify statistically insignificant adverse effects which are caused by a drug. I’ll make you look like an even bigger buffoon if you think the hyper-analysis of data isn’t excruciatingly important in this field.
How the hell many Army JAGs do you think we have over there, corkie?
Don’t like my figure? Fine. Say it is half that. Find 28,500 lawyers that have been killed doing their job in the US since 2003. Still too high? Fine. Divide it by 10. Find 5,700 lawyers. Hell, divide it by 20, come back with the names of 2,850 lawyers that have been killed. Maybe then we can discuss how easy and safe it is to be deployed to Iraq as compared to staying in an oh so perilous AG position in that den of danger and sin known as Wilmington.
Wrong question. You should question the number of JAGs that have been over there.
You don’t think 2,850 lawyers have died since March 2003?
Statistics after the fact don’t address the fact that no one could predict in advance what unforseen events could bring. Anyone being deployed to a war zone is being put at significant risk of death or injury, no matter what their job may be. Those who accept that risk and serve their country deserve our respect. Those who refuse to give them that respect deserve our scorn.
Dont be obtuse. How many lawyers died total is irrelevant. I want to know how many were killed as a direct result of their occupation. Which is the only rational basis of comparison and which I made perfectly clear.
I wish I knew how many have been over there total. I am, however, spotting you the absurdly high number of 80,000 and asking you merely to come up with a scant 2850 names of lawyers killed in action over here.
You’re spotting me 80,000 JAGs having been in-country and claiming that it equates to 2,850 lawyers dying out of 1,143,000?
Are you assuming that 200 JAGs have died in country? That number doesn’t make any sense.
Nope. It doesn’t. I forgot I was multiplying by a percent.
But very well, your job is now that much easier. I will take the names of 29 lawyers that have been shot down, blown up, stabbed, beheaded, etc… as a direct and proximate result of their chosen profession since 2003 here in the US. Of course, we both know not nearly 80K Jags have been through Iraq.
Or let me put it this way…if you had a daughter you would feel absolutely no different in sending her to the University of Green Zone, Baghdad as opposed to the University of Delaware, Wilmington?
You don’t think occupational deaths need to be compared to other deaths to see if the number is statistically relevant? That’s crazy.
Let’s get this thread back on track.
The case Biden is presumably working on has caused a sensation in Delaware, so he may have figured that no one would want to change horses midstream and the AG job is his if he wants it. Child predators are big news in this area because, almost on the same day, 11-year-old Sarah Foxwell disappeared and was found murdered on Christmas Day just across the Maryland line.
Meanwhile, Mike Castle is 70 years old and not in the best of health so finishing out the Senate term would likely be a capstone to his career. It leaves the younger Biden in a position to transition directly from AG to Senator four years hence while building up a resume of high-profile cases.
Michael Swartz
http://www.monoblogue.us
Oh really.
Your whole premise is based on a comparison of mortality tables bewtween dometic workers and military personnel in a combat zone.
These dead soldiers I served with do not appear in anyones “tables.” However, they are in fact COMBAT DEATHS. Thus, since they are dead, becasue of their time in Vietnam and they are not in the precious tables you defend, your tables are skewed and thus false.
That has been the point of your detractors from the beginning. There are so many data points you fail to include in your “calculations” if you call them that that your algorithms cannot have any relevance.
Now throw in the fact that your primary assumption that working in Peoria, IL is the same as working in Ramadi, Iraq and work site conditions are the same with people in the area using military weapons trying to actively kill you and the whole discussion becomes totally ludicrous.
But keep patting yourself on the back for your brilliance.
Please provide us links to your data sources as well.
I could probably come up with 29, but I agree that 80k is too high of an assumption. We have to redo the math from scratch.
I’d rather she be a JAG deployed to Iraq than a student at the University of Delaware, Wilmington.
Does that answer that?
That statement is true but irrelevant.
The 7 years of statistics describe very aggressively the risk of deploying to Iraq. One can argue that the risks are much LOWER now.
Again, I agree with this statement, but it’s irrelevant.
Are you somehow implying that anyone that quantifies battlefield risk refuse to give the members of our military respect?
Are you implying that there are deaths caused by deployment to Iraq which aren’t accurately being considered deaths?
If so, then please elaborate.
No, actually. It hasn’t.
Tell me what data points aren’t included.
Better yet, let’s discuss adverse drug effect studies.
Not irrelevant at all. The issue is not how statistically safe or unsafe a JAG deploying to Iraq might be; the issue is the level of honor and courage of those that accept this unknownable risk. In a place rife with targeted assisinations, suicide bombers, the threat of a biological or chemical attack and the possibility of a Tet-style offensive it shows courage and dedication to voluntarily serve one’s country. As far as one deploying under these circumstances could guess, casualties for their kind might be extremely high. What is irrelevant is statistics after the fact that show casuality rates that were lower than they might have been under other case scenarios. As a conservative Republican, I’m sure I could find plenty reasons to vote against Beau Biden for the U.S. Senate but his military service is somthing to be honored and any suggestion that he was playing it “safe” by voluntarily serving in any branch of the U.S. military, in any capacity, is despicable.