Sunday open thread
Busy with family and friends. Talk amongst yourselves.
***
Via 30 pcs of silver and Feebie, longtime commenter A.J. Montana passed away last week of an apparent heart attack. His loyal readership and participation were much appreciated. Condolences to his family and R.I.P.
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PPhil,
Valleygreasers posts are way out there. I read the thread he refers to and it is difficult to imagine what it he was smoking to come to his conclusions about your feelings for the NG and Reserves…
And just for the record, how do you feel about puppies serving in the NG and Reserves?
Thank you WarEagle. I don’t mind people disagreeing with me but but I am up to my ears with relatives and friends who have and are serving in the military. My point was that rich kids typically join the National Guard as a cheap way to use their dads’ political connections to qualify as veterans without having to take the risks that those enlisting in the Army, Navy, Air Force or Marines take. If you are serious about seeing action, you don’t join the National Guard even though they do get deployed. I find it impossible to believe that anyone who has served in any of the non-reserve branches of the military would have a problem with that statement. Many, if not most, of the National Guard are veterans themselves having first served in other branches. Many of my college friends paid their way through college as veterans serving in the National Guard.
Again, thanks for not piling on to me.
Crushed or diced?
No, I said puppies serving. NOT serving puppies! This is how ugly rumors get started!
Wow. Quoting out of context is FUN!!
Phil @8:23 #284
You’ve got it right there – don’t bet against the U.S., but the only glue cementing the global assault is cheap labor. Take away that factor by not buying those products – nevermind consumers actually asking why they have to talk to either India, Mexico, or some other outsourced center is the key. If a U.S. company outsources to another country – let them know you must speak to someone within the borders of the U.S…. If a product is coming from a country you believe is not an asset to our country, don’t buy it. Wash your own windows, mow your own yard, wash your own car – buy only that which American workers have produced.
And, yes, America’s military is the best in the world, but must also be supported and provided the equipment to complete the job assigned them. I’m not at all sure the regime in D.C. has that in mind.
Why don’t you just clear things up by doing so?
So you are the moderator now?
It’s a safe bet that the answer is NO.
I served on Active Duty and later in the Reserve Component and I consider your comments to be too generalized.
I commanded a Reserve Component Infantry Company. Three of my five officers were studying for their doctorates. Four NCO’s were studying for their Masters degrees. None of the officers were there for military benefits. None needed to be there.I cannot remember the NCO’s situation.
All wanted to serve their country while pursuing their civilian careers.
In fewest words, I would ask you to treat RC personnel, including Beau Biden, as “innocent until proven guilty. That’s all I am requesting.
Thanks for the clarification. I was going to ask you for a couple recipes.
Phil, you have restated your view that I had a problem with. Anyone joining the NG or Reserves who thinks they are avoiding risks better do a little reasearch on just who is serving in Iraq and Afghanistan.
That’s a complicated point but I am all for engaging in the global economy but not if it means we have to “flatten” the world (ala Tom Friedman economics) with a new world scheme that over-rides our Constitution. We cannot allow corporations to play the governments they corrupt against each other for their own benefit.
It’s the relentless push for one-world government that really has me worried. It just might be that in fighting another world war, we will be once again fighting for the right to be free Americans as defined by our Constitution. Fortunately, I believe that one-world cabal has been delivered a couple of serious blows in the past couple of months and more are coming.
Breaking up our banks and forcing those big foreign banks to play by OUR rules will be a big step forward. Our banks will argue that they need to be “too big to fail” or they won’t be able to compete against the big, corrupt foreign banks.
Sounds to me like a clarion call to restore the American banking system to what made it the most efficient and productive in the world and level the playing field for them by regulating the foreign banks who want to play with us. We can do that because we are the only indispensable economy on earth. China couldn’t even compete against California if we deported our government and our prisons to Mexico.
Believe me, the America story is far from over.
Phil – “Believe me, the America story is far from over.”
I’m not giving up on Americans. The best is yet to come, this is simply a bump in the road.
We have issues, but if the American populace care enough to maintain their wellbeing they will eventually wake up.
Well Flyoverman, you are misinterpreting what I said. I doubt that your friends were sons of a prominent senator. It’s the privilege that I am cynical about. It’s not that the National Guard or the Reserves were established as a dodge for the privileged, it’s that the privileged have blatantly used them that way. That doesn’t mean that it is dishonorable to serve in the NG or the Reserves.
Like I said, one of my college friends (with I formed a venture company while in college and who later ran for Congress in Texas about twenty years ago) served a term as an Air Force pilot in Korea and joined the Reserves afterward to go to college. Why would anyone have a problem with that?
But to state that a privileged son of a senator is a “veteran” because he joined the National Guard is not the same thing. If he really wanted to serve in Iraq, he would have joined the Army or Marines. Wouldn’t you like to dig into the conditions that got him deployed to Iraq? I would. It is very likely he picked his spot.
Maybe I’m wrong about the guy but I am not inclined to give any Biden the benefit of the doubt. This is about Biden, not the NG or Reserves. But then, valleygreaser knows that but that doesn’t serve his purpose.
And now for something completely different.
O-bow-ma prostrates himself again. What a tool.
And that takes us right back to the Tea Party movement. Well done!
A shovel-ready pothole that will never get fixed till some boyscout fixes it to earn a badge.
I love the headline too. “Why the Hell Would Obama Bow to the Tampa Mayor?”
My guess? She kinda looks like Japanese royalty.
Best comment made today.
Watching the Grammys with my teengage daughter and she just informed me that Lady GaGa is not a…lady.
I’m going to the optometrist first thing Monday morning.
“No Barry, I see no dandruff”
I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that this is a perfect example of who Obowma really is. He is nothing more than an empty vessel, an obsequious sock puppet, who, left to his own devices, simply cannot help but bow and scrape and make a complete fool of himself. If Soros, et al., weren’t pulling his strings like a marionette, he’d probably bow and scrape to the Repubs, too.
Either that, or he’s got some REALLY shiny shoes.
happy2behere,
There was some speculation about Gaga’s gender after an odd fold of fabric or something was seen in a photo.
At least Lady Gaga performed with Elton John in the opening number,
so the ladies were represented.
I had all of the Grammys I could stand,
I’m watching the ProBowl, instead.
When you impune one of us with no clear evidence, you impune all of us. ONE TEAM, ONE FIGHT.
Frankly, I find your attitude no different than the people who used to call me a “baby killer.” The evidence you have against Biden is no better than those who yelled that vile crap at me and my fellow soldiers.
I had to take that garbage then. Now, not so much.
Give us some solid evidence regarding this soldier, who is a Biden by birth, not choice or “cease fire” commenting on his motivation to serve.
Lady GaGa may be no Lady, but she is female. She was born Stefani Joanne Angelina Germanotta.
And:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Gaga_on_Fame_Ball1-edit.jpg
Definitely not a guy.
That was no lady, that was my wife (I wish).
You just called yourself a “baby killer” using the dishonest literary device of “you sound like’ to accuse me of saying something I didn’t say or mean. Are you insane?
Suddenly, I don’t believe that you are veteran. You sound like Frank Rich and all of those libs who keep protesting that Republicans called them unpatriotic when no one said any such thing. You must be drinking from the same punch that valleygreaser and jsm are drinking from.
I have no problem being attacked for what I say but it is dishonest to attack me for something claim YOU heard. I don’t speak in code.
Whew! Thanks. Just that dress may keep me awake. The thought that she is a he/it would require meds and therapy.
Flyoverman,
You are way off the deep end here. If you are looking to be insulted then eventually you will succeed.
I think Phil has pretty clearly stated what he was talking about. If you refuse to accept his fairly clear explanation then frankly it becomes your problem…
For the record, “Joe Biden is using his father’s privilege” is NOT the same as “baby killer.” Not NOW, and not then.
I recommend several drinks…
That’s no limb MtsEdge, you’re on pretty solid ground there.
…and tonight…
The idea that people who serve in the National Guard are somehow not real “veterans,” even if they served in a war zone, is repulsive. I’d expect such attitudes at DU or KOS but I’m shocked to see them here.
LOL
valleygreaser said:
Nobody said that. It’s been suggested that there are some who joined the guard for the sole purpose of a resume enhancement for political purposes. There is nothing to gain over impuning each other on this topic. Stay focused on this November and 2012.
Phil you are right. I am not a veteran. You found me out. I am actually a staffer for Joe Biden. I have also been instrumental the past five years in covering up a torrid, on-going affair between Nancy Pelosi and Barney Frank. Barney is a straight arrow. He acts the way he does as a deception to find out who are all of the right wing bigots.
I am unrelated to Frank Rich, but I am related to George Soros. He funds my activities.
Sorry, someone did. Look at #314. Phil said, “But to state that a privileged son of a senator is a “veteran” because he joined the National Guard is not the same thing.”
Like I said, if you are looking for a reason to be insulted you will eventually find one. I expect this kind of twisted nonsense from some regular posters here.
It has been a while since I saw two people go to extremes to twist something like this.
Frankly, it just isn’t worth discussing. If you want to get yourself in a huff don’t let reason stop you…
aj montana would have said:
Ah ha! A mole. We were warned about this. So Flyman, who is Ellie Light – Really?
Phil, right or wrong maybe you ought to back off. Sometimes you relate things in a way that can seem condescending, even if it’s not your intent. That some use the Guard etc. for personal advantage is a given, but I’d guess it to be a small minority. At any rate, it ain’t worth it.
IMHO – FWIW
Wareagle82,
The son of the Governor of Alaska, who could be the sitting Vice Presient right now, joined the National Guard and his unit deployed to Iraq.
Other than his rank and branch within the Army you tell me what the difference his service is from Beau Biden’s. The answer is ZERO. He showed up. So did Biden. What were Biden’s motives in serving? We do not know.
If we “question” his service without evidence, we are no better than those on the Left who have questioned the service of President Bush.
Scott Brown is/was a JAG officer in the MA ARNG. Did he join just to get his ticket punched to get to the Senate? The evidence that he did is no better or worse than Biden’s.
I see no one on this post questioning Scott Brown’s service. Why not? If Phil is intellectually honest he would have. Thus, logically, he has another motivation.
Biden may be NG, he may be JAG, he is be a Democrat, and Biden’s son. He may support abortion on demand, TARP, The Stimulus, ACORN, cap and trade, national healthcare, and deficit spending.
In regards to his politics he is not doubt a target rich environment. However, he is also a soldier who served honorably, and until any of you prove his service was less than honorable, I have his flank in regards to that facet of his life.
If you don’t like that, sorry.
Since this is the evening to bare my liberal soul. This is Ellie Light.
Off topic:
Obama To Propose $3.8 Trillion Budget
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35173466/ns/politics-white_house
Yeah, MA really changed his thinking alright.
You just can’t get over the issue of “privilege.” Biden was born with a silver spoon in his mouth. Palin’s son wasn’t. Neither was Scott Brown.
Please tell me you see the difference.
And for the record, I have never seen Biden’s service record so I can’t tell you whether he has served honorably or not.
Man your Ma Deuce and lock and load if you want. But, Biden is going to be subject to second guessing as long as he is in politics. And that is all Phil did. He didn’t impugn the whole NG or AR and he didn’t call your mother names or kick your dog…
So you admit that you don’t know Biden’s motives, but refuse to allow Pasadena Phil to speculate? I think WarEagle is right. You’re looking to be insulted.
Anyone that claims I questioned Biden’s branch of service is an idiot. I merely questioned the unsafeness of his JAG job.
Let’s look at Senator John Kerry’s motives for joining the active duty Navy. Do you think it’s ok to question his motives? Do you think it’s ok to question Scott Beauchamp’s motives?
From my politics blog: again, Rifqa Bary is facing serious trouble – her parents are now reneging on the deal made. So if you live in Ohio, please make sure you’re ready to campaign for her defense.
From my comics blog: don’t fall for the latest bait-and-switch tactics DC has in store for the Flash. And Geoff Johns’s being the writer is just one more reason I’d rather stay away today.
And, from my game blog: video of Tumble Pop.
I had read about this,too. The first thing I thought of was surprise, surprise. The next thing that came to mind was taqqiya.
Even if you don’t live in Ohio, you can support her through prayer, financially, and in other ways, see http://www.rifqabary.com.
My pastor is the chaplain of our local NG unit. He is deploying with his unit to Iraq, his second tour, in August. Nothing cheap about his service, or the members of the NG.
One of our former youth members is serving with a NG unit as a MP. He’s deployed in a hot zone in iraq.
Membership in the NG may have saved some buns during VietNam, but it’s not so now. And as I recall, there were NG units, ANG units and some reserve units deployed in Viet Nam. Ask John Kerry.
But you’re entitled to your opinion.
I was reading this morning about an N. Korean airplane that was stopped in Thailand with 35 tons of small weapons, bound for Iran. It shows the hypocrisy of these Islamic leaders. They hate and want to kill infidels, yet they buy weapons and trade from a man who hates all religions. Power is more important than “Allah”. Of course, God “forgives” them for this, because of the ultimate goal.
Are you implying that John Kerry was in a reserve unit prior to his deployment to Vietnam?
My understanding is that he was deployed while active duty Navy.
It is not hypocritical to make a temporary alliance with an enemy in order to take down a stronger enemy.
What is annoying in that story is not Islamic hypocrisy, it is Western ignorance and stupidity in thinking we can contain weapons possessed by rogue states.
Well, that just makes me feel so much better that we’ve downgraded China’s intel status.
(I think maybe they’ll start liking us now)
If Western ignorance and stupidity annoy you now, then whatever you do, don’t click on the link above.
Good grief, Corkie, do you do any research before you post? It took me 5 seconds to look this up…
Kerry enlisted in the USNR.
You truly are an idiot.
He joined the active duty navy and received a reserve commission. The Navy only gave active duty commissions to academy and NROTC grads. Even if you didn’t know this, then you should have noticed that he transferred to the naval reserves later in the 70s – well AFTER he returned from Vietnam.
Kerry was NOT a member of the navy reserves when he deployed to Vietnam.
You truly are an idiot.
I forgot to ask you if you even read your OWN quotes.
“active duty military service…”
“active duty military service…”
“active duty military service…”
“active duty military service…”
“active duty military service…”
Corkie,
You should read your own sources except you obviously CAN’T READ!
It is obvious you know nothing of which you speak and after you prove you know nothing I’ll show you the excerpts that prove you are a moron.
Oh, and BTW, are you still offering lectures on “Corkie-nomics?” Still predicting that major up-tick in the economy and employment? I’m so eagerly awaiting your next round of predictions. You and Hank Paulson and Timmy Geithner should go into business together…
WarEagle82, it’s obvious to everyone reading this thread that I’m accurately conveying Kerry’s branch of service.
You were stupid to challenge me about it. I’ll leave you with this from YOUR source (wikipedia):
“active duty military service…”
I never predicted a major up-tick in the economy and employment.
I predicted a slight up-tick. And yes, I’m still predicting it. And yes, I’m still willing to teach you economics.
Also, I trust that you understand a difference between Paulson and Geithner.
Btw, please keep bringing up my economic predictions. It will make it easier for me to make you look stupid after my predictions are proven correct.
Corkie,
Have you even looked at the actual documents from John Kerry’s service? Obviously NOT! But go ahead and keep proving you know nothing about which you speak. Not that I need to encourage you to do that since you manage that well enough on your own…
Still waiting for that corkie-nomics recovery. I hope you don’t make your living on your predictions…
But do tell, when will unemployment decrease and by how much? I am dying to know…
I’ve looked at plenty of information about Kerry, but the case is quite simple. Kerry served in the active duty navy with a reserve officer commission – which is quite, quite common.
Certainly you aren’t claiming that the USS Gridley was a reserve ship. Are you????????
Some questions for you.
1. Do you think the economy is still receding?
2. If not, do you think the economy (GDP) is at least growing modestly (less than 2% on an annualized basis)?
3. If not, do you think it’s impossible for the economy (GDP) to grow more than 2% (an actual 2%) from its bottom prior to November?
This just in, Lady Gaga was born a female but likes the ladies. I dont care much about that but thankfully my vision is not as bad as I thought.
Slight uptick, Big woop.
Notwithstanding the incredibly sophisticated assessment you’ve provided, I contend that a “slight uptick” can, in fact, be an eventual “Big woop” due to the cyclical nature of the economy.
Think of a sine wave (a baseline model for any cyclical event). The bottom of the wave is merely a slight uptick.
Corkie,
Of course, there are NO USNR officers or sailors on any “active duty” warship at any given moment? Like I said, keep digging the hole deeper. Just make it easier…
And, list all possible definitions of an economic recession. Okay, I’ll make it easier. List three or four definitions. You seem to think that there is only one. You never quite seemed to get that the last time you introduced us to the wonders of “corkie-nomics.” This is what happens when you get your degree from Sears!
USNR officers join and serve in the active duty navy, and in active duty units, all the time. Kerry was NOT in the navy reserves when deployed to Vietnam. Kerry was in the active Navy. Why can’t you understand that? It’s not that difficult.
Your attempt to confuse other readers is shallow. They know I’m credible, and they know you sound like an idiot.
Once more (because I can’t resist). This is from the source you quoted.
“active duty military service…”
There is only one accurate definition. There’s a “recession” when the economy is receding. There might be differing methods for determining when the economy is receding, but that is the only accurate definition.
Now that I’ve again furthered your economic education some questions for you.
1. Do you think the economy is still receding? Don’t be frightened of the question.
2. If not, do you think the economy (GDP) is at least growing modestly (less than 2% on an annualized basis)?
3. If not, do you think it’s impossible for the economy (GDP) to grow more than 2% (an actual 2%) from its bottom prior to November?
Corkie,
So if I were to provide a document clearly showing Kerry’s rank and commission in the USNR, that wouldn’t demonstrate he was a commissioned officer in the USNR, right? What don’t you understand about the USN and the USNR? Evidently an enormous amount…
And you still haven’t answered one simple question about an “economic recession.” I now know you can’t!
Seriously, this is your answer?
Where DID you do your undergrad work in econ? Target? Sears? K-mart? “Head Start?”
Right. It’s pretty pathetic that you’re only right when you’re trying to be sarcastic.
The USNR granted him a commission yet he didn’t serve in the USNR until well AFTER he returned from Vietnam. The USNR immediate gave him to the active duty navy upon commissioning.
I’m very sorry you don’t understand it, but you don’t have to understand it to accept it as fact.
Go back to wikipedia and read all about it.
List of Naval Officer Designators
Here’s a money quote:
Got that. All officers entering the US Navy were awarded Reserve commissions!
Note: While this was true for a period prior to 2005, this wasn’t always true. I think it went into effect in the 1990s or so. Prior to that and for a long period of time, Academy and NROTC grads received active duty commissions. Officer candidate grads, such as John Kerry, entering the active duty navy received USNR commissions.
Again, I’m sorry if you don’t understand it. But I’m sure you fail to understand many truths.
Why are we arguing about John Kerry? He’s a weenie.
Not only did I answer your question. I answered your question accurately.
There’s a “recession” when the economy is receding. We can discuss the methodology to determine whether or not the economy is receding, but it certainly can’t be constrained by a single definition – even if some groups advertise a fix set of criteria.
Now, I start off asking you this question – and YOU haven’t answered.
That’s ok, I’ll repeat the questions for a third time.
1. Do you think the economy is still receding? Don’t be afraid to answer. This isn’t a trick question. I might ask you to explain your answer, but I’m not going to beat you up. You can answer either way depending on how well you back up your answer.
2. If not, do you think the economy (GDP) is at least growing modestly (less than 2% on an annualized basis)?
3. If not, do you think it’s impossible for the economy (GDP) to grow more than 2% (an actual 2%) from its bottom prior to November?
Good question. I stated that it was acceptable to question whether or not Kerry had honorable intentions in serving in the active duty navy.
WarEagle stupidly challenged me claiming that Kerry was never in the active duty navy simply because Kerry held a reserve commission.
He obviously didn’t know that many active duty JUNIOR naval officers retain reserve commissions.
No, Corkie, I stated that John F. Kerry enlisted in the US Navy Reserve. This is beyond dispute.
And I have documents that show he enlisted in the USNR on 18 Feb 1966. And I have documents that he was commissioned as a officer in the USNR and held a reserve commission when he was serving on the USS Gridley in 1968 and 1969.
The documents show he held a commission in the USNR in 1968, 1969, 1970 and 1971. This means that John F. Kerry was in the USNR and called to active duty as a member of the US Navy Reserve just like any other member of the services. But Corkie doesn’t read. And Corkie can’t think.
Instead he shows some silly wikipedia article.
The official documents from John F. Kerry’s service records disagree with your theory, Corkie. You need to learn how to think and then read. And wikipedia is not an authoritative souce…
And the only thing “receding” around here is your IQ.
Oh, and this is the statement that Corkie went “ape” over. He doesn’t understand the concept of reservists being called to active duty.
Kerry enlisted in the USNR in February 1966 and had to report for duty in August 1966.
You have officially gone insane.
Here is my initial and accurate assertion.
Was the USS Gridley a reserve unit? NO!
Kerry was deployed to Vietnam while active duty Navy.
You inaccurately challenged me on this assertion.
As I’ve repeatedly stated Kerry served in the active duty navy on a reserve commission. He didn’t serve in a naval reserve unit until well AFTER he had returned from Vietnam.
For a period of time prior to 2005 all junior officers entering the U.S. Navy were awarded a Reserve commission. Certainly you’re not implying that the active duty navy had no junior officers. Are you?????
I understand everything about a reservists being called to active duty.
That’s not what occurred with Kerry.
You don’t understand anything about receiving a reserve commission for the purpose of immediately being placed, and serving, in the active duty navy.
Corkie,
You are wrong. I have his enlistment papers where he enlisted in the US Navy Reserves. And I have his promotion papers, all of which show he was in the US Navy Reserve.
And, again, your idiotic claim that no reservists were serving on the USS Gridley during the Viet Nam War is well beyond stupid…
I.HAVE.THE.DOCUMENTS!
Prayers for Captain Phil Harris of the Cornellia Marie (Deadliest Catch) who suffered a stroke over the weekend. I would think his career is over now.
WarEagled82,
Both of my original statement are accurate.
John Kerry was not with a reserve unit when deployed to Vietnam.
John Jerry was deployed to Vietnam while active duty navy.
It’s obvious that it doesn’t matter how many papers you have. You don’t understand the system.
Dude, now you’ve gone off the deep end into crazyville. I never made such a statement.
I’ve repeatedly stated that the USS Girdley wasn’t a reserve unit. It wasn’t. That statement is accurate.
WarEagled82,
I’ll just assume that you don’t have a firm enough grasp of economics to confidently answer the 3 basic questions I posed.
But just in case you decide to step-up, I’ll repeat them.
1. Do you think the economy is still receding? Don’t be afraid to answer. This isn’t a trick question. I might ask you to explain your answer, but I’m not going to beat you up. You can answer either way depending on how well you back up your answer.
2. If not, do you think the economy (GDP) is at least growing modestly (less than 2% on an annualized basis)?
3. If not, do you think it’s impossible for the economy (GDP) to grow more than 2% (an actual 2%) from its bottom prior to November?
You mean the “what goes down, must come up” economic model?
Where, in a few posts “slight uptick” becomes “growing modestly” and you accuse me of economic unsophistication? When the out-of-control elevator hits the bottom, there’s always a bounce.
Go ahead, live in your dream world, if it makes you happy.
That’s not what I mean at all. Economic cyclicalities have nothing to do with baseless mean reversion – or as you so eloquently put it, “what goes down, must come up[.]”
Economic cyclicalities are driven by tangible, quantifiable causes.
For example, business owner A invests capital and energy to expand his business IF he believes the market will support it. IF he hears that the recession (a term he might not fully understand) has ended and that the economy is growing, then he has a greater likelihood for believing that the market will support his business expansion. So business owner A purchases equipment (thereby helping the equipment manufacturer and distributor) and hires someone to operate it (thereby creating a job).
Adding together the effects of all business owners like A provides a modest lift in the economy.
Now, business owner B (who is a bit more risk adverse than business owner A) sees a slightly improved economy and feels comfortable expanding his business. This provides an additional lift for the economy.
Now, business owner C (who is a bit more risk adverse than business owner B) sees an even more improved economy and feels comfortable expanding his business…..
Keep in mind, that if we fail to continue defeating Obama’s socialist legislation efforts, then business owners won’t feel confident to invest at all. This will derail the recovery cycle. However, I believe the Massachusetts election has strengthened the resistance to Obama’s socialism. This could all turn on a dime, but for now my prediction remains.
Btw, I don’t live in a dream world. Far from it.
I live in a world which forces me to make predictions, and this is my current prediction.
My prediction might be right, and my prediction might be wrong. But let me ask you this. Are you willing to bet the 2010 election on the prediction being wrong? Because that’s what many conservative pundits are doing. If my prediction is right, then the conservative message going into the election will be severely impaired.
Conservative pundits would be well served to expect modest economic growth and improved unemployment prior to November. If it doesn’t happen, then they can state, “Obama has made things worse than we expected.” But if it does happen, then they can say, “we expected this and are unhappy that the potential growth is being restrained by fears of excessive spending, high taxes, etc.”
So think about it. There’s really no downside to adopting my predictions as official conservative expectations. But there is downside to betting the election on a continuous declining economy.
I AM a business owner (with my husband) and in the last two years we laid off six people. If I had a slight uptick in business, I be too darn busy to blog.
Because the economic downturn was caused by a panoply of villians, enabled by both parties, we’re not willing to bet the economy on any politican or election.
Its US, the small business people coming up with new products and services the world wants, which will bring our country out of the economic pit.
Thanks for that anecdote. But to be frank – it’s both meaningless and wouldn’t counter my argument even if it wasn’t meaningless.
Reread my previous comment. I didn’t say that business owner A decides to expand his business BECAUSE of an uptick in his business. I stated that he decides to expand his business IF he believes the market will support it. IF he hears that the recession has ended and that the economy is growing, then he has a greater likelihood for believing that the market will support his business expansion.
You are obvious not a type A business owner. You’re probably a type C (or even D) business owner. It’s fine that you’re not more aggressive. This is hardly an important question, but would you predict rehiring anyone within the next three quarters?
Do you consider the local grocery store worker that decided to purchase two rental houses in 2005 to be a villain? I don’t, but he certainly contributed to the downturn. In fact, anything that over-inflated the economy led to the downturn. An economy which has expanded excessively quickly must recede – at least temporarily.
1. That will certainly help.
2. Won’t mid-sized business people coming up with new products and services the world wants help, too?
3. Won’t large business people coming up with new products and services the world wants help, too?
4. I know what you mean, but technically our country isn’t in an economic pit. Real GDP is still higher than it was in 2006. Would you say that we were in a economic pit in 2006? The pain is caused by the recent negative growth and high unemployment. Keep in mind, the economy can grow to record highs (at a rate of 2% per year) without unemployment ever improving.
I can’t wait to have Corkie define Type E through Type Z business owners. I am on the edge of my seat!
Then he can tell us how unemployment in 2010 is going to get better while GDP is growing at 2%. And that it will work against conservatives and for the Marxists…
Why do you persist in looking only at a change in GDP when it comes to economic performance? You do realize that GDP is not the only way to measure economic performance?
Do you illustrate your “economic theories” in crayon? Do you make “economic models” in Play-Doh?
I believe the GDP will grow modestly more than 2% prior to November. I believe unemployment can drop to 8% if the GDP grows a real 4% prior to November.
It will unless conservatives incorporate this expecation into their strategy.
I don’t. I’m willing to discuss others if you wish. But you haven’t even answered my three basic questions from early so I’m not expecting much of an exchange from you.
Of course. Do you wish to discuss others? I’m happy to. I’d probably even enjoy if if you drop the attitude.
Now, I’ve answered all your serious questions. Please answer mine. They’re not traps! There are no wrong answers. I just want you to tell me what you think will happen so I can see where exactly we disagree with our predictions.
1. Do you think the economy is still receding?
2. If not, do you think the economy (GDP) is at least growing modestly (less than 2% on an annualized basis)?
3. If not, do you think it’s impossible for the economy (GDP) to grow more than 2% (an actual 2%) from its bottom prior to November?
And there is the reason I won’t discuss economics with you. You know NOTHING about economics and the relationship between a change in GDP and a change in unemployment if you believe this to be true!
Are you completely crazy? I thoroughly understand the correlations between GDP and forces that affect employment. But feel free to offer your views.
Anyone reading this thread would respect my knowledge of economics.
Nobody reading this thread could even guess if you know anything about economics.
You’ve merely told me I’m wrong repeatedly yet haven’t offered up a single speculation.
Do you have anything of any value to state?
My view is that you do not understand the relationship between the change in GDP and the change in unemployment.
Many people reading this thread DO NOT RESPECT YOUR KNOWLEDGE OF ECONOMICS. Go back and read their posts to demonstrate it.
You are wrong and you are so wrong you don’t even know how wrong you are if you believe a 4% change in GDP through the first three quarters of this calendar year will knock unemployment down to 8%.
Reference and explain one widely accepted relationship between changes GDP and employment…
Your view is wrong.
I understand all popular hypotheses regarding the interactions between GDP and employment, but you only get a hint regarding my prediction.
Many hypothesis assume a 2% GDP growth requirement exists for any growth in employment due to average productivity gains.
However, productivity gains often surge during a recession and flatten during the first several quarters of real growth and appreciate at the average rate thereafter. So, I believe we’ll see 4% real growth (which equates to reported quarterly GDP growths of 5.3% – remember these numbers are reported on an annualized basis) without any material productivity gains.
You’re neither bright nor courageous.
If you were bright, you wouldn’t have challenged me about this issue.
If you were courageous, you would offer your own predictions.
I’m done here. Put up or shut up.
More “Corkie-nomics” on display here. You must be on Obama’s CEA team…
What “popular hypothesis” suggests that a 4% real growth of GDP over three quarters will decrease unemployment by 2% or more in 9 months.
THE LARGEST DECREASE IN UNEMPLOYMENT, YEAR TO YEAR, IN THE LAST 10 YEARS IS 1/2 OF 1 PERCENT.
YET YOU CLAIM THAT UNEMPLOYMENT WILL DROP BY 2 PERCENT IN THE NEXT 8 MONTHS?
In fact, the San Francisco Fed says unemployment is likely to be much higher this year. And I quote:
And then take a look at the intrade.com predictions market on unemployment for 2010.
Like I said, you do not understand the relationship between changes in GDP and changes in unemployment.
And you obviously know nothing about economics.
Again, reference and explain one widely accepted relationship between changes GDP and employment…
That is brilliant. Conveniently take the time period in which unemployment levels were moderate to low, note that it does not increase greatly during such periods, and then use that to claim that unemployment levels can’t increase when the base line is HIGH.
If you want to make a fair comparison, why don’t you look at how much unemployment dropped from 1940 to 1941 or from 1941 to 1942 or from 1982 to 1983 or 1983 to 1984 which are the only times in the past 60 years unemployment has been at or around 10%.
Let me save you the trouble. Here is the employment growth rate for each of them:
1940-1941: 4.7% (or .3966% per month)
1941-1942: 5.2% (or .4333% per month)
1982-1983: .1% (or .0083% per month)
1983-1984 2.1% (or .1750% per month)
So… in 3 of the 4 actually relevant comparisons, job growth easily outpaced .5 percent in a year.
Well, that is not what I claimed, Chapster, but now we see how little you know about economics too! Thanks for shining the light on your ignorance yet again.
I picked the last 10 years because that is the data I had handy.
And I’ll let you explain why 40/41 and 41/42 probably aren’t representative of the conditions we will face in the next 8 months, if you can…
Take a look at the delta in real GDP between 40/41 and 41/42 and see how that relates to the point I have been making about the relationship between those two statistics. It would take real GDP growth in the range of 9% to 12% to achieve those employment gains. But thanks for demonstrating my point that 4% annual growth in real GDP is NOT going to change unemployment by 2% in 8 months! But, frankly, I didn’t need your help.
Now, are you going to claim, with the economy in the state it is in, that unemployment is going to be at 8.00% or less by November 2010 as Corkie maintains? Seriously? Do you see any indication that unemployment is going to drop by more than 2.00% in the next 8 months? If so, go to intrade.com and put your money where your mouth is!
Ha ha ha ha.
WarEagle82, is that the best you got?
You’re quoting intrade and the San Fran Fed?
Did either of those sources predict the recession or this high unemployment?
This is why I make money. Lemmings like you refuse to be a thought leader.
We shall see if I’m right.
You’re too chickens**t to make any predictions on your own.
Right, Corkie, break open your piggy bank and go bet your “fortune” on an unemployment rate of 8.00% in November 2010 and real GDP growth of 5.30% for the rest of the year.
I can see the ads now. “When Corkie talks, people roll on the floor in gut-wrenching fits of derisive laughter!”
Never mind that you are obviously unaware of the economic principle I am referring to.
Never mind you are totally clueless about economics. You are too stupid to know how stupid your prognostications are.
Maybe you and the Chapster can go into business together. That should be fun to watch…
People said that about me in November 2006, too. But then it was for the opposite reason.
What’s your prediction?
I clearly stated real GDP growth of 4% and annualized growth of 5.3% (I never stated 5.30% for anything – why would you add a significant digit to my number?).
How could you have screwed that up?
Still waiting for your predictions.
Wow! Well, Corkster, it looks like you have finally “caught” me. I typed “5.30%” instead of “5.3%”. I would never have even thought you knew about “significant digits!” Very good. You have found another elementary school textbook to quote from. Your librarian must be very proud of you.
Explain to me how much unemployment is likely to decrease based on “4%” real GDP growth using the economic principle you evidently can’t name but understand.
And, do the earliest unemployment figures for January 2010 show an increase or a decrease in unemployment? What month will unemployment hit 8%? You only have 9 months left before November.
When are you going to list one of the well accepted economic principals that explains the relation relationship between a change in real GDP and unemployment?
And my prediction is that you are going to continue to prove yourself an ignoramus in 003.00, 002.00, 001.00. Oh, and list all the significant digits in this post…