Mystery missile: Shades of Scare Force One; Update: Was it a missile or not?
Oooookay.
So the Pentagon has no explanation for the mystery missile spotted off the southern California coast last night and reported by CBS News.
“The operative word is ‘unexplainable,’” a Pentagon spokesman said.
I guess they’ll tell us the “system is working.”
Perhaps the most interesting theory: Obama was showing off to Asia while on his jaunt.
So why not just be upfront with the American people and say so?
Well, we know this administration already has a pre-existing problem with leveling with the American people about unidentified flying objects involved in p.r. campaigns.
Remember Scare Force One? That transparency-evading scandal led to the resignation of White House Military Office director Louis Caldera.
Stay tuned…
***
Commenter Aloha Guy in response to the theory that Obama was showing off to Asia: “Perhaps China was showing off to Obama.”
Snort.
***
Update: Hmmmmm. From the Danger Room, Was it a missile or no?
Some folks are seizing on a Navy notice — advising pilots to avoid the area — as evidence that the sea service isn’t lying about the launch. But that notice was issued today, hours after the mystery missile sighting.
Meanwhile, naval analyst Raymond Pritchett makes a smart point: that the mystery itself is becoming a security problem.
“When someone makes an unannounced launch what looks to be a ballistic missile 35 miles from the nations second largest city (at sea in international waters), and 18 hours later NORAD still doesn’t have any answers at all – that complete lack of information represents a credible threat to national security,” he writes. “If NORAD can’t answer the first and last question, then I believe it is time to question every single penny of ballistic missile defense funding in the defense budget. NORTHCOM needs to start talking about what they do know, rather than leaving the focus on what they don’t know.”
To confuse matters even further: that contrail, seen from that CBS news helicopter, might not have been a missile at all. It’s “probably an aircraft contrail seen from a weird angle,” reader WB emails, attaching the photo below from contrailscience.com. It shows a plane plume, photographed on New Year’s Eve above San Clemente, California. It, too, was mistaken for a missile. To WB’s eyes, the ascent from yesterday’s launch was “far too slow to be a missile and the glittering exhaust ‘flame’ is, I believe, sun reflecting off the aircraft’s airframe at altitude.”
Best mystery missile theory from Doug Powers: It was Nancy Pelosi on her last joyride.
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They aren’t scheduled to be assigned to subs until 2011. Try again : )
Not unless, you mean Hillary, while aboard on an undisclosed short sub cruise mistakenly thought she had pushed the reset button.
remember how awesome it was when they took Slim Pickens hostage & tried to get him to crap out the little compass? LOL
hawkeye54–she simply thought she was microwaving her burrito.
If this was an aircraft, leaving LAX for Asia, for example, why wouldn’t NORAD and the FAA be able to say so? I agree that the lack of information is as disquieting as the event itself — more so, since it was heading away from the coast, not toward it. To the notion that this could have been a Chinese sub launching from our waters to give us a scare: if we don’t know where all Chinese boomers are at all times, we’re in bigger doo-doo than I ever expected. This makes Pearl Harbor look like child’s play, if that were true — which I heartily doubt.
I don’t know, but Biden could easily have been the culprit:
What the Military said to Biden was: “Do you want to launch from a sub?”
What Biden heard: “Do you want a sub for lunch?” So he said, “Go ahead, lunch away.”
NORAD knows everything. You just do not have a need to know.
Those are very funny. Maybe better in reverse order.
Watch the other hand!
Sort of like, this country is still a constitutional republic if you look at it from a weird angle.
I am reminded of some missle tests that I have seen video of, especially the ones where the missile flys out of control and smashes into the ground. N Korea just did a couple of those while testing nukes but they did it out in the middle of the ocean. Japan was concerned about the possibility of a wayward launch then.
I don’t think it is wise to launch a missle test 35 miles from a large population center like LA. While it may not have a live warhead, having a missle that size crash into a LA neighborhood could cause major damage and probable loss of life.
Perhaps they had to launch that missle so they could test some of the “defenses” we are implementing. That would also be ludicrous since there are plenty of places along the coast where the prospect of a mislaunch would not endanger a population center.
A plane? Really? Must be not just any plane.
The film footage appears to show something ascending from comparatively low altitude. Question: What kind of aircraft leaves a contrail like that on takeoff? The only takeoff contrails I’ve seen were from planes using JATO packs. But perhaps aside from the Blue Angels C-130, we don’t use those anymore.
This whole thing still smells very fishy, and the “airplane” explanation seems very forced when you look at the video.
I’m not believing anything until Governor Ventura investigates.
It could be a secret government earthquake missile, or an experiment to blot out the sun and end global warming, or maybe it’s a hurricane generator.
Maybe that wasn’t the thing to worry about at all, it was just a distraction! What was going on in the other direction?
Governor, what is it? Or is your life in danger again?
Maybe it is just targeting a UFO.
The AF and USN have range safety officers, with a finger on the self-destruct key, that will destroy any test shot that leaves its flight plan. The destructive charges placed aboard the test missile blow out the top of each rocket motor (a solid propellant rocket can’t be shut down), neutralizing forward thrust, and the missile pieces pinwheel back down to earth and enter the ocean.
<
That was one of the funniest scenes ever! I played that movie for my 24
year old son, and he borrowed it to
play for his buddies back home in South Carolina. They all thought that was the funniest movie they’d ever seen.
2 other problems with that video. Is that another helicopter in that video? Is it closer than the one taking the pictures? Did they get video?
Also, for a news helicopter which should have lots of “film” or live feed on board, thats a very short video. Maybe they didn’t see the beginning of it but with the contrails , they could have zoomed on the origin. Land or sea? Ship or water?
Also, where did it go? Did it keep going up? Did it plunge into the sea? Did it turn left or settle into a flight path? Perhaps that missle was aimed at LA but took a wrong turn. And yeah, officals in charge of our safety didn’t leave a good impression with the clueless remark. Maybe there is another launch coming. This doesn’t sound like a ho hum deal.
Achams’ Razor explanation:
It’s Governor Moonbeam launching garbage into the atmosphere to stop global warming.
1st: The NORAD & DOD certainly know this was a missile launch; but, while they probably don’t know who launched it, they know we “dodged the bullet” – again.
2nd: This scenario is eerily similar to that posed by Joel C. Rosenberg in “Dead Heat” where a missile is launched off the US coast from a commercial vessel by jihadists at one of our major cities.
Scary!
Vandy is near Santa Barbara….
Note to Al Gore, do not light a match in your bathrooms…
3rd: There are aliens living under water off our coast and one of them was recalled to their home planet but moved the clock forward instead of backwards for daylight savings time. They thought it would be dark.
Note to Aliens: Its spring forward and fall back.
I’m waiting for someone to photoshop the still image and change the story to multiple missile launches seen off the coast …
(psst – I too now think it’s just an aeroplane.)
I can’t dismiss the airplane theory because the video is just to short to get a perspective of what I’m looking at plus they’re zooming the shot which gives an illusion that the thing is moving very quickly.
I’m waiting for the un-cut raw video version – HELLO, CBS???
Too bad it wasn’t aimed at Sacramento.
That way, the military’s failure to detect or stop it would’ve at least had a positive impact.
We’re “C‘ing lots of BS, that’s for sure!
Looks like Deputy Fife pulled the bullet out of his pocket just “a little bit too fast there, Andy”.
Not at all. It could have been an aircraft which didn’t file a flight plan, flew IFR, and didn’t use a transponder.
I don’t know who launched it, but maybe we should bomb Iran just to be safe.
We will never know what this was. Just like we don’t know the purpose of that NY flyover that put everyone in a panic. Strange things have been happening ever since Obama took office. I think it has to do with that transparency thingy.
Here’s another looksee, dunno if it’s from the same video or no:
Mysterious missile launched off California coast?
Sounds like a plan to me.
I’d love to hear from both military and commercial pilots, possibly ground support people too. Do contrails ever look like that at takeoff and what type of aircraft would it be, other than some sort of missile?
An AquaRocketeer?
Howard Hughes: That son of a b!tch WILL fly!
How much afterburner was that “commercial aircraft” using to make the visible flames? And, oh yeah, how many single engine commercial aircraft are we flying, these days, since there is only one point of contrail generation?
Yeah, it’s a contrail. From a missile. This isn’t a still photo, it’s a video – and it’s a video with a visible point of combustion, generating a single contrail, and moving like a bat out of hell towards the west.
It’s a missile – period.
That close to LAX and nothing was noted by any other aircraft? I see another craft in purplepeeps link too. Have they come forward with remarks?
“Look, up in the sky!”
“It’s a bird.”
“It’s a plane!”
“It’s W A X M A N !!!!”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Waxman
You must be describing a particular type of missile test. I’ve been involved with a few missile tests and none of them had any self-destruct function at all. They were also self-guided, so once they were fired, they were on their own.
Neither the Navy or AF would test a missile at that location.
RobM1981 – thank you. You made the most sensible case.
Sure as anything, if that had been a loopy takeoff out of LAX, I’d have been on it!
Hate to plug another blogger, but, Captain Dave over at Flightlevel390.blogspot.com is great. He’s a working pilot and will take you along for the ride.
1) No.
2) Al Gore lighting farts.
A contrail is formed when water vapor from the exhaust is exhausted into a cold environment. If the increase in water vapor exceeds the saturation point of the surrounding air you can see the droplets or tiny ice crystals (depending on air temp). Because you need cold air, this usually happens at something like 25,000 feet and higher. Not at takeoff. If the government says it’s a contrail at takeoff, they are lying to you.
Maybe they started filming Ironman 3.
I say nuke them from orbit. It’s the only way to be sure.
having their own personal summer? You should be ashamed of yourself-really.
Let’s see – what in all probability was an unidentified, unannounced at-sea launch of an ICBM, 35 miles off the coast of the United States 2nd largest city, the POTUS out of the country and the Pentagon unable or more likely, unwilling to provide the media with details?
And 90% of the comments I am reading on this blog and others think it is an opportunity to make jokes about sea aliens, doobies, Nancy Pelosi, etc., etc.?
FEAR and DENIAL has a way of affecting people’s sense of humor I guess.
It was, er, swamp gas and the full moon reflecting the light from Venus. Everyone just look into this here flashy thingy…
I guess some folks figure that a joke will have as much impact as running out onto the highway in a screaming panic. Though, I grant you, the screaming panic thing can be fun.
My God! Can’t we all agree to drop the ubiquitous word “pre-existing”? If not, please explain to me the difference between pre-existing and existing.
OK, I have a really stupid question. Why is everyone assuming that because the military isn’t saying anything about this incident, that must mean they don’t know what it is? I didn’t think it was their usual habit to be sharing everything they know with the general public.
Captain Fang of the People’s Missle Sub, when asked about the incident said: “That was California? We thought it was Taiwan!”
Swamp gas. Or a weather balloon. Nothing to see here, folks. Move along, just keep moving….
Captain Fang went on to say, “What is point in having super-sneaky submarine if you don’t show it off to people?”
***
U.S. Army Patriot missiles have been launched at San Nicolas Island years ago. It is East and slightly South of L.A. at about the right distance. However, it’s hard to get the burn time in the video since the “missile” flight is repeated a number of times. Long burn times (minutes) occur for long range missiles–much shorter times for ground to air missiles. Once the burn is over the missiles are usually hard to see.
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I thought all commercial, military, and private planes had to carry IFF transponders. A high target should have IFF “squawk” reports with the aircraft tail number and altitude in the secondary radar downlink data.
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The airport radars also have raw (primary) non transponder data recorded. It should be possible to review the tapes and see what type of target was observed. And if two or more radars got hits on it–the target range and speed can be calculated–even if the radar does not have altitude measurement capability.
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It looked pretty fast for an aircraft.
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John Bibb
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Heh.
Thank Goodness for the fortuitous video wherein we can SEE the rocket motor. Otherwise, this would fade as another instance of the stupid public overreacting to a simple case of a commerical aircraft’s contrail. So, getting down to the question for the POTUS or DOD or whomever: are you lying(again) or just incompetent?
I doubt that is it. I don’t think they took SanFranNan’s broom away from her.
If you look at some of the pictures or the video, the contrail looks like there were a couple of slight course corrections…as a missile would make.
A plane making a course correction would have more of an arc to it rather than the sharper angles shown on the picture.
BUUUUWAAAAHAAAAAAHAAAAAAAA.
That picture is freaking HILARIOUS!
Good point. One would also have to ask, why would an airplane launch 35 miles out in the ocean?
Sounds like what Bite Me would have said to Urkel when he called to let him know what was going on…
“Don’t worry, just some swamp gas reflecting off Uranus.”
It is Matthew Broderick, and company inside the undergrown tunnel-fortified command center for NORAD in a mountain in Colorado playing war games and Tic-tac-toe with the NORAD Computer, or it is Lex Luthor and his associates launching missiles in order to create beach front property in Nevada, and to distract Superman.
No worries.
Superman caught that missile seen in the video clip before it did any damage.
The other one is headed for Washington, D.C. but the Savior of Mankind, The One, The Messiah, Barach Hussein Obama used his Divine powers to neutralize the second missle, and he turned it into flowers.
Now that I see how prepared the US is, I can finally sleep better at night.
That’s one opinion.
Here’s another.
I was looking at the video and where the supposed launch point is, look at the size of the so called contrail. Secondly, anything launched, of this magnitude, would have to be reported to not only SAC/Norad but also the FAA – you cannot launch a high altitude model rocket without getting permission. Also, cannot tell but looks to be going west and if it is heading to Kwajalein this is a Ballistic Missle Test.
Son of Stuxnet III – setting off a missile as a warning to Iran and ObaMao:
We, the people of Israel, don’t appreciate your moronic attempts at controlling our country, so bugger off, Dudes.
My People are sometimes smarter than what’s good for us.
If we really want to know what it was, we need to ask Mr. Transparency.
Shortly after the TWA 800 crash, there was a similar missile theory. I was flying in my small plane one afternoon in the same area south of Long Island, and I saw what looked like a missile streak in front of me. After a quick look around, I looked more carefully to see that the shadow of a high contrail on the water messed up my 3D vision. With some haze on the horizon, it looked like a vertical streak, when it was actually horizontal over a long distance.
If it was an airplane–where did it go?? Where was it coming from??… and what was the flight number??? forget the contrail, how about some basic information to put a stop to all the speculation?? isn’t that what Air Traffic Controllers do??
Something else very interesting happened on monday…
At the Supreme Court…
More here:
It’s Ockham’s Razor, and it really does not apply.
On behalf of the People’s Republic of Tea I claim responsibility for the contrail, bigfoot, and the Loch Ness Monster.
Phoenix?
Honolulu?
US Airways flight 808?
Ok
It can’t be Nancy Pelosi doing one last joyride. If it were, the contrail would spell: “Surrender Dorothy.”
The phenomenon is not unheard of. A similar event occurred last January. See Contrail Science’s overflow page for more information than you may care to read. Or check out AVWEB for a simpler comparison of known aircraft contrails that look like missile launches.
But not being one to leave an anxiety vacuum, check out Spaceweather for a count of potentially hazardous asteroids. And while you’re there, see if you can figure out what happened to Jupiter’s missing band.
Governor Ventura, your thoughts?
On November 11, 2010 at 03:47 pm, TomB said:
Obama found a way to tax it.