“9.4%” unemployment rate — with an asterisk; underemployment at between 16-19 percent, labor force shrinks
How’s the Obama Jobs Death Toll today?
The official release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is right here.
The lower-than-expected jobless rate officially stands at 9.4 percent, with 103,000 new jobs on the rolls.
That’s very good news for those back in the work force.
But.
“It’s a bit of a mixed bag,” said Ryan Sweet, an economist at Moody’s Analytics. Many analysts hoped to see larger job gains, and the drop in the unemployment rate is unlikely to be sustained, he said.
“The labor market ended last year with a bit of a thud,” he said. “But I think things will get much better this year.”
More people were hired in previous months than the government first estimated. The government’s revisions showed the economy added 210,000 jobs in October, above the previous figure of 172,000. November’s total was revised to 71,000, up from 39,000.
Over the past three months, the economy has added an average of 128,000 jobs. That’s just enough to keep up with the population growth. Nearly double is generally needed to significantly reduce the unemployment rate.
But other factors can affect the unemployment rate, at least temporarily. One key reason for the drop was that the government no longer counts people as unemployed when they stop looking for work.
More buts.
Via ZeroHedge, the labor force participation rate has dropped to a quarter-century low:
While today’s unemployment number came at a low 9.4%, well below expectations, the one and only reason for this is that the labor force in America has plunged to a fresh 25 year low. Assuming a reversion to the mean in the long-term average participation rate back to 66%, means that the civilian labor force, which in December came at 153,690, a drop of 260,000 from November, is in reality 157.6 million, a delta of 3.91 million currently unaccounted for. Maybe someone can ask Bernanke during his imminent presentation before Congress what happened to the unemployed population, which would have been 18.4 million if this labor force delta was incorporated, resulting in an unemployment rate of 11.7%.
And according to Gallup, the December underemployment rate rose two points to 19 percent.
Nearly one in five Americans continue to be unemployed or employed part-time looking for full-time work, according to the latest Gallup unemployment report, which states that the underemployment rate in America stood at 19 percent at the end of December, up from 17.2 percent at the end of November.
According to Gallup, seasonally unadjusted unemployment increased to 9.6 percent at the end of December — up from 9.3 percent in mid-December and 8.8 percent at the end of November.
Gallup also reports that 9.4 percent of Americans are working part-time jobs because they can’t find full-time employment. That’s up from 8.4 percent at the end of November.
Today’s BLS release puts the underemployment rate at 16.6 percent, up .3 percent from November — and deteriorating steadily since the start of the second quarter.
Conn Carroll at Heritage: Americans Are Fleeing Obama’s Crony Capitalist Economy…
With the unemployment rate now at 9.4%, this marks the 20th month in a row that the unemployment has been over 9 percent, a post–World War II record. You are going to hear a lot of noise from the White House about how this drop from a 9.8% unemployment rate to 9.4% means the economy is in a strong recovery. This is false. The reality is that the only reason the unemployment rate dropped is because the U.S. labor force decreased by 434,000. More importantly 260,000 Americans dropped out of the labor force entirely. This means that the Obama economy is now driving Americans out of the labor force faster than it is bringing them.
The House GOP has its work cut out for it. The Democrats’ job-killing machine must be unplugged. Stat.
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Categories: Obama Jobs Death Toll
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Some more unexpected BS.
It’s not good news at all.
People gave up looking for work. That’s why the rate dropped. They eliminated people from the universe of people seeking work.
Pretty soon, they’ll all give up and we’ll have full employment. Ain’t that great.
/sarc
Everything is unexpected when you keep changing the criteria!
At first glance the unemployment number looks good but dig deeper and there is no solid reason for optimism.
I’ll bet unemployment went down because people thought they were going to lose their unemployment benefits after 2 years.
We ALL should want America to succeed. We WANT the unemployment rate to go down.
We should not encourage unemployment by extending unemployment benefits, but while DC says “we are going to cut spending” they will cry that they have to extend unemployment again.
The problem is going to be inflation. The Fed has been trying to inflate the economy to protect against deflation. Their primary goal is to get housing to start rising again so all the credit default swaps that all the banks hold won’t force the banks to fail.
When housing starts going up, hyper inflation will be impossible to stop.
Do people really believe any of these unemployment figures? I’m amazed at how the unemployment rate has stayed so static for almost two years–above 9% but never getting over 10.1%. What are the odds?
hmmmm….. unexpected? In December? Could this be temporary seasonal work?
how unexpected will it be when all of these people lose their jobs in January?
don’t worry the best and brightest minds are on it.
Somehow I have NO faith on any numbers that come out of dc! They have a problem with fuzzy math and not telling the truth.
L
The number of jobs adjusted for the number of Americans of working age actually dropped.
But this is a good thing. It means inflation will stay in check. The CPI gets out of control when workers have too much money to spend compared to the amount of product being supplied. No danger of that here.
Our leftist elites have found the winning formula. If inflation starts to pick up, just raise the minimum wage or throw some more regulations on business or shut businesses down outright (like stopping drilling in the Gulf) and thereby put more potential inflation creators out of work.
As long as the workers are too stupid to figure out what’s being done to them, they’ll keep cheering minimum wage raises and greenie destruction of businesses and business and profit bashing all the way to the poorhouse.
And yet there are people who seriously question we’re related to monkeys … because we’re so much smarter??
Hide the Decline.
The housing market won’t get going until…
1) Businesses have the confidence to start moving forward with projects and hiring.
2) The public believes they will get/keep their job.
3) The banks are done covering their own a$$es and lend to “qualified” buyers.
There’s no way in heaven, hell or on earth to just “make the housing market go”. Gov’t rebates advance purchases that we’re already going to happen. They do not create home sales.
A hot economy (and all that implies) is the ONLY thing that will produce a healthy housing market.
What we had from 1998 thru 2008 was not healthy. It was toxic, thanks to Dems and RINO’s. And today, Obama stands in the way of all that will fix the economy. NOTHING he has in his quiver will help. It will in fact only hurt.
Yea, and look for the unemployment rate to jump “unexpectedly” in Jan. This a coverup of massave proportions. Real is 18 to 20% and will stay that way. Frankly, it is going to get worse.
Missing another “t” when it comes to those in the current administration…
#8 On January 7th, 2011 at 10:04 am, letget said:
The numbers will get much better shortly. The Department of Labor is considering revising how the unemployment number is generated. It is Obama’s contention that 6 million Americans are currently collecting unemployment compensation (up to 99 weeks now). These people will now be counted as employees of the government since they are being paid by the government. This will drop the unemployment number from 14 million to 8 million and the true number from 9.4 % to 5.3%. Obama’s unemployment number will now be lower than than in either the Clinton or Bush administrations, proving once again that he is the greatest president ever.
Has anyone ever done a “thought analysis” of how many jobs by sector would open up were there an immediate mass alien deportation? It seems “off-limits” for the media to even project and I can’t Google such either.
James Greenidge
Queens NY
O.T. P.S. To the military mavens here; I’m looking for a site that discusses ultra-unorthodox uber-low collateral injury warfare which could “go around” orders-of-engagement and IUDs and snipers to take out enemies toe-to-toe in utterly novel off-the-envelope ways (like some of Dale Brown’s edge). I can dream up a few effective but maybe not so “ethical” methods myself (ironically, I hope there aren’t such sites to give the enemy ideas!) but I’d appreciate any hints to such a mil site. Thanks!
Good point. After all, it has already been established someone receiving money from the govt doesn’t necessarily have to do anything productive or useful at all to be counted as a govt employee.
Welfare recipients should count as state employees, so the number should go even lower.
Is this how it was calculated in 1937?
If not, what is today’s rate calculated as it was then? And what would be the rate in 1937 using today’s method?
Lies < damn lies < statistics.
Considering that this is the year that the first baby boomers turn 65, I wonder how many of them have retired and are out of the workforce, and if this has some effect on the low participation numbers.
When we’re through with this issue, let’s look at how the government now calculates inflation — by discounting food prices!
Lies, damned lies,…and statistics.
Nothing new here.
Outrageous, yes: changing the denominator – what’s “counted” – so as to obtain the result one wants.
In other words, politicans, bureaucrats, administrators, paper-pushers… lying, cheating, and manipulating…because they know that they can; and they know that they can get away with it..
But new?
Nah….
The mess our country is in is so bad that I doubt that incremental fiddling about the edges is going to accomplish anything.
I think we have such a Gordian knot of problems, of a threat to our very existence as a free country; that a decisive, 180-degree turn of direction, including a change of those in power to those holding a decent, moral, freedom-loving worldview, will be necessary to save us from going over a cliff.
Sorry, you posted that line first.
Too many interruptions while I was composing the post!
Great – how soon can we re-elect the Obamunist?
Of course, I don’t trust the unemployment figures. They are subject to so many variables that the percentage is bogus. But a lot of sleeping fools will celebrate this great news and think Obama and dems are awesome, dude!! I don’t hope for failure of our economy, but I also don’t want anything that makes the traitors in the WH look good. They lie about absolutely everything!! There is NO trust remaining in this government. NONE. I pray for the new congresspeople and senators who have come in with fresh ideas and strong conservative principles. I literally am on my knees for them. I want them to know we have their backs. Write to them and tell them that! They need to know we are pulling for them.
True – they figure you will substitute gruel when hamburger is too expensive, and when gruel goes through the roof, you can always eat your shoes – ergo, no inflation.
***
HI JAMESGREENIDGE–#15. Study the way Israel has handled it’s terrorist problems. They are a small country that can’t spend the tremendous amount of money and personnel that big countries do when attacked. Three examples come to mind:
***
(1) The Entebbe airport rescue. While the world wrung their hands and had giant U.N. and international meetings they approached the problem in a simple and rational manner.
***
One week to study the situation and to come up with a plan of action. One week to implement and practice the plan. And then–when no real action occurred–Israel hit them hard, killed the terrorists, and suffered a few casualties. And brought their people home.
***
Compare Israel’s response to the U.S.A. / Jimmy Carter failed Iranian hostage “rescue” plan. We could have blockaded Iran’s ports and used our Navy and Air Force to destroy their infrastructure and ability to sell oil–as Saddam Hussein was engaging them in his attempt to steal their oil fields.
***
(2) Compare Israel’s response to the Munich Olympics terrorist murder of dozens of Israeli athletes. No big U.N. or Interpol work. Just a lot of spy work identifying and assassinating the murderers when they found them.
***
Most of the murderers of our personnel are still living large in many foreign countries. And we aren’t sending hit teams to wipe them out.
***
(3) How Israel bombed the Osirik reactor in Iran. Or the nascent Syrian reactor they took out. No international U.N. “sanctions”–aka doing nothing. Just a few aircraft and boom–problems solved.
***
Compare the Israeli actions to the failed U.S.A. policies over the years. When your survival is at stake–and you are lead by Holocaust survivors–you think a lot more clearly on how to win–or how not to die.
***
We don’t lack the techniques or personnel to do these jobs. We lack the proper mindset. We had our “head on straight” during WW2–it has been up our rear ends since then!
***
John Bibb
***
We are in the midst of hyperstagflation and hyperunemployment. If there a way out? Absolutely! But not with the policies of the obama administration.
All thinking people know that the only cure for unemployment is to remove the government from the marketplace. Government involvement is the single biggest impediment to economic success of any kind. The Congress and President need to cease and desist unless it involves less taxation and regulation.
It has been said, “Success has a thousand fathers, while failure is an orphan.”
In this case, the failure of our economy to provide jobs has many, many fathers.
NAFTA encouraged too many companies to take jobs to Mejico.
Various labor and environmental laws encouraged even more companies to take jobs to China, India, Vietnam (!), and elsewhere. These laws need to be relaxed for the jobs to return.
If the laws were enforeced and the illegal aliens were deported, the unemployment rate would be cut in half or more. That would require a government that cares about American citizens. Not this government.
Correct me if I am wrong, but didn’t unemployment insurance run out for a bunch of people last month that exhausted their benefits? If that is in fact the cast, then all of those people would no longer be counted on the unemployment rolls.
I just did a google search and according to the Huffington Post 4 million people exhausted their benefits in December 2010 as they were not elegible for the latest extension. That means that those 4 million people fell off the unemployment count last month….
Hannibal#14,
You can not be serious, can you? Does bho think, sorry about think, the American public is THAT stupid to go for this? I guess those who vote for bho will fall for this, but people who are informed won’t.
L
!