Race to Replace Anthony Weiner Update: Poll Finds Republican Leading by 6 Points

By Doug Powers  •  September 10, 2011 02:02 PM

**Written by Doug Powers

The special election to replace the self-proclaimed author of Obamacare and junk-Tweeter extraordinaire Anthony Weiner is Tuesday, and right now it isn’t looking good for the Democrats.

From the New York Times:

The Republican candidate is in a strong position heading into Tuesday’s special election in the heavily Democratic Congressional district formerly represented by Anthony D. Weiner, according to a new poll released on Friday.

Fifty percent of likely voters in New York’s Ninth Congressional District supported the Republican, Bob Turner, compared with 44 percent who supported his Democratic opponent, Assemblyman David I. Weprin, according to the poll, conducted from Tuesday to Thursday by the Siena Research Institute.

Democrats were expecting their party to easily retain the seat Weiner resigned in June, but instead they’re having to spend a substantial amount of money in the district:

Hoping to stave off an embarrassing loss, national Democrats have purchased nearly $500,000 in television advertising and labor unions and other Democratic-affiliated groups are readying a major get out the vote effort they hope might save their candidate.

In 2008, Barack Obama carried New York’s 9th District 55 to 44 percent, so the Dems having to fight to retain a congressional seat where no Republican has ever been elected to the House can’t be a comforting sign for them with 2012 just around the corner (but it won’t be anything they can’t blame Bush or the Tea Party for).

The New York race isn’t the only special election coming up on Tuesday. There’s also one in Nevada, where the Democrats are up against the same problem they’re facing in New York:

In a GOP-leaning Nevada district left vacant when Dean Heller was appointed to the Senate, Republicans are using Obama as a cudgel against Democratic candidate Kate Marshall, featuring him in all of their ads while mostly ignoring her.

Many Democratic strategists are privately blaming Obama for their party’s difficulties in both districts and worry that if his numbers don’t improve he could hurt their chances at retaking the House in 2012.

**Written by Doug Powers

Twitter @ThePowersThatBe

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Posted in: Politicians,Politics

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Comments


  1. #1
    On September 10th, 2011 at 2:21 pm, letget said:

    YOU have just got to love this! bho is making people vote r that probably have never in their life. I bet any person running does not want bho coming to the state or mentioning their name because he has a way of tanking anything the touches, talks about, or gets involved with.
    L

  2. #2
    On September 10th, 2011 at 2:29 pm, cabrerski said:

    (Announcer): In a world gone mad…one small district in New York has a chance to restore sanity to Gotham. Will the voters select the same ol’ thing or will they strike back at the oppressors. Watch as the evil unions try to muscle their candidate to the top. See the coffer-draining government employees take every last dime in taxes. This Sunday…watch That’s Wienerville!. A Robert Altman film featuring Roseanne Barr as Hilary Clinton, Matt Damon as Mayor Bloomburg and Michael Moore as the Democrat mob.

  3. #3
    On September 10th, 2011 at 2:33 pm, happyscrapper said:

    Sweeeeeet!!!!

  4. #4
    On September 10th, 2011 at 2:33 pm, bjc said:

    *There is poison, and then there is the contagion called P-BO1, and it is spreading like wildfire; Gotta love it!
    *Time and the truth shall reveal that liberal logic is an oxymoron, and that progressivism makes a slave of the individual every time it is tried; Out with all the Dems and the RINO’s!

  5. #5
    On September 10th, 2011 at 2:35 pm, BigWolf said:

    Now that the American people have done the job, that the media should have during the presidential campaign, we know who and what he is. Tying Democrat candidates to Obama just makes sense. They are running as D’s with the presumption that they will support the person and his policies who is at the top of their party.
    Wise up NY 9 voters. If you want the economy to turn around and the nation to return to greatness, ditch anyone associated with big government statism. Obamanauts and the like do not value the individual, believing that choices should only be made by “experts.” Believe in yourselves and your own freedoms and chose representatives based those values.

  6. #6
    On September 10th, 2011 at 2:35 pm, peteee said:

    Many Democratic republican strategists are privately openly blaming thanking Obama for their party’s difficulties prospects in both districts the entire country and worry hope that if his numbers don’t improve continue the decline he could hurt help their chances at retaking the House everything in 2012.

    wow, this sounds more like it.

  7. #7
    On September 10th, 2011 at 2:49 pm, BigWolf said:

    peteee,

    Love the corrected paragraph but for one item.

    As Democrats, Rinos and liberals lose, the nation wins.

  8. #8
    On September 10th, 2011 at 2:51 pm, maddmatt3131 said:

    A 6 point lead is not nearly enough to win over the illegal alien vote. It also seems that the Obama administration has now given tacit approval to union thuggery. I could see union thugs intimidating anyone who might look like they vote for a Republican.

  9. #9
    On September 10th, 2011 at 3:09 pm, Stan25 said:

    A defeat of biblical proportions in the offing? I sure hope so. Anyone as toxic as Obama is right now, I don’t see any other scenario. Although a 6 point lead is just a sampling from a pre-election poll; the true showing will be the returns that are counted after the polls close.

  10. #10
    On September 10th, 2011 at 3:15 pm, letget said:

    I read someplace a day or so ago that the Jewish voters will be voting for Turner, who is Catholic, instead of weprin, who is Jewish, because of bho’s stance on Israel? Sorry, I can’t find the link on that.
    L

  11. #11
    On September 10th, 2011 at 3:27 pm, Pasadena Phil said:

    Good thing they aren’t running a Tea Party candidate. Rove would be flooding Brooklyn with anti-Republican ads. It’s always good to defeat a Democrat but that district is likely to produce a Republican to the left of Scott Brown.

  12. #12
    On September 10th, 2011 at 3:41 pm, peteee said:

    Pasadena Phil said:
    Good thing they aren’t running a Tea Party candidate. Rove would be flooding Brooklyn with anti-Republican ads. It’s always good to defeat a Democrat but that district is likely to produce a Republican to the left of Scott Brown.

    john mccain?

  13. #13
    On September 10th, 2011 at 3:45 pm, teachem2 said:

    Apparently Weprin doesn’t even live in the district he wants to represent and has no plans to move even if he does win.

    http://www.ny1.com/content/top_stories/146734/weprin–turner-hold-special-debate-on-ny1

  14. #14
    On September 10th, 2011 at 3:59 pm, tre said:

    Well, the big difference here and in ’94 was you’ve got me.’ We’re going to see how much difference that makes now.”
    Barack Obama

    Right now it looks as if Obummer couldn’t sell a night with Pamela Anderson to Eliot Spitzer.

    But Pasadena Phil has a point. If we end up with another Scott Brown type disapointment then what’s the point?

  15. #15
    On September 10th, 2011 at 4:15 pm, happyscrapper said:

    But Pasadena Phil has a point. If we end up with another Scott Brown type disapointment then what’s the point?

    Perception. A republican win deflates the regressive’s overinflated egos. That alone is worth it until we can get enough Tea Party candidates to run. Right now we don’t have enough. Patience has never been Phil’s strong suit.

  16. #16
    On September 10th, 2011 at 4:22 pm, peteee said:

    tre said:
    Right now it looks as if Obummer couldn’t sell a night with Pamela Anderson to Eliot Spitzer.

    isn’t heidi fleiss more to the spitzer’s liking?

  17. #17
    On September 10th, 2011 at 5:23 pm, sonerai32645 said:

    democrate will win

  18. #18
    On September 10th, 2011 at 5:36 pm, cabrerski said:

    On September 10th, 2011 at 4:15 pm, happyscrapper said:
    Perception. A republican win deflates the regressive’s overinflated egos. That alone is worth it until we can get enough Tea Party candidates to run. Right now we don’t have enough.

    Add to that: The new RINO will at least vote some of the time with the elephants rather that all the time with the donks. We will take what we can get and then destroy the Dems in 2012. I don’t have to like it, but it makes living with it a little easier.

  19. #19
    On September 10th, 2011 at 5:37 pm, swede said:

    Many Democratic strategists are privately blaming Obama for their party’s difficulties in both districts

    Pffftft, ya think?!!?!

    and worry that if his numbers don’t improve he could hurt their chances at retaking the House in 2012.

    You have almost zero chance of retaking the house anyhow, Einsteins.

    BTW, Intrade has the probability of the GOP retaking the Senate at 67.1%. Heh. And FWIW, Barky to be re-elected POTUS is at 50.2%. This is tight folks

    And for grins and giggles, Newtie’s probability of being the GOP candidate is at 1.2% – just behind… Rudy Giulianni at 1.5%! What. A. Shmuck.

  20. #20
    On September 10th, 2011 at 5:42 pm, swede said:

    Many Democratic strategists are privately blaming Obama for their party’s difficulties in both districts

    Pffftft, ya think?!!?!

    and worry that if his numbers don’t improve he could hurt their chances at retaking the House in 2012.

    You have almost zero chance of retaking the house anyhow, Einsteins.

    BTW, Intrade has the probability of the GOP retaking the Senate at 67.1%. Heh. And FWIW, Barky to be re-elected POTUS is at 50.2%. This is tight folks

    And for grins and giggles, Newtie’s probability of being the GOP candidate is at 1.2% – just behind, er… Rudy Giulianni at 1.5%! What. A. Shmuck.

  21. #21
    On September 10th, 2011 at 6:11 pm, J.J. Sefton said:

    I used to live in Forest Hills and changed voting districts after I moved to Manhattan before ’08. Damn! How I would love to pull the lever for Turner.

    My brother, who hates Obama, is a NYC teacher and refuses to vote for Turner because it’s not in his interest. Having no time for remedial life 101, I just threw my hands up.

    Anyway, NY-9 is not like the Upper West Side or the Village. A lot of Russian Jewish immigrants who escaped communism and have no desire to see it re-enacted here. There is a chance for a major upset. Even if he wins, I understand the seat may even be eliminated by redistricting, but the Dems would also give one up as well.

    What a shocker; Weiner’s seat in the deepest of blue citadels taken by a Republican. Even if Turner loses in a close contest, this is a bad sign for the Dems for ’12.

    GO TURNER! NY-9 readers of this blog – get out the vote, and get out and vote

  22. #22
    On September 10th, 2011 at 6:13 pm, yaymm said:

    Labor unions and other Democrat affiliated groups will help with get out the vote efforts……translates to union goons, Move-On.org, black panthers, and dead people will be used in whatever way possible to help the Democrat overcome his Republican rival, even though polls show the Republican to be in the lead.

    Do not count your clucks before they hatch folks. None of our elections from now on are going to be very pretty. The Liberals are getting desperate.

  23. #23
    On September 10th, 2011 at 6:22 pm, yaymm said:

    Labor unions and other Democrat affiliated groups will help with get out the vote efforts……translates to union goons, Move-On.org, black panthers, and people who no longer exist will be used in whatever way possible to help the Democrat overcome his Republican rival, even though polls show the Republican to be in the lead.

    Do not count your clucks before they hatch folks. None of our elections from now on are going to be very pretty. The Liberals are getting desperate.

  24. #24
    On September 10th, 2011 at 7:21 pm, sonerai32645 said:

    dems are not to worry. when people enter the voting booth, they will vote for the usual person. rep will not win

  25. #25
    On September 10th, 2011 at 7:26 pm, maddmatt3131 said:

    yaymm said:

    Labor unions and other Democrat affiliated groups will help with get out the vote efforts……translates to union goons, Move-On.org, black panthers, and people who no longer exist will be used in whatever way possible to help the Democrat overcome his Republican rival, even though polls show the Republican to be in the lead.

    Do not count your clucks before they hatch folks. None of our elections from now on are going to be very pretty. The Liberals are getting desperate.

    Dead on yaymm. Conservatives not only need to vote but also bring a video camera along just in case to catch any intimidation or worse.

  26. #26
    On September 10th, 2011 at 7:52 pm, Straight_Talk_Luigi said:

    This is great news! And yes, be sure to have those video cameras in hand!

  27. #27
    On September 10th, 2011 at 8:50 pm, Pasadena Phil said:

    On September 10th, 2011 at 4:15 pm, happyscrapper said:

    Patience has never been Phil’s strong suit.

    It’s not about patience. It’s about not being stupid. If you keep electing liberal Democrats, and that is all the GOP ever offers, nothing will ever change. How much courage does it take to go further down the ballot and vote for a conservative? Vote conservative! I may not have patience but at least I have brains.

  28. #28
    On September 10th, 2011 at 8:54 pm, Pasadena Phil said:

    Besides, how on earth does a person who wants Tea Party candidates find the patience to vote for an Assistant Democrat knowing that the Rovian progressive machine is the reason CONSERVATIVE Tea Party candidates have no chance to work within the party? How dumb is that?

    How many times do you have to get electrocuted before you learn not to stick your finger in the light socket? I guess enough patience and persistence, you just keep trying the same thing over and over and over again.

  29. #29
    On September 10th, 2011 at 9:40 pm, Virginia Patriot said:

    I don’t know much about Turner, but New York GOP Reps. like Peter King, even though not as conservative as their southern brethren, have been helpful.
    This district has never elected a Republican.
    This would be a huge psychological shock.
    I hope he wins.

  30. #30
    On September 10th, 2011 at 9:57 pm, Virginia Patriot said:

    Phil, I voted for Floyd Bayne, Independent Tea Party candidate last time. He got 7% of the vote and Eric Can’tor/won’t cruised to easy re-election to continue his climb up the establishment ladder. I have no illusions that the GOP will help the Tea Party take Fedzilla down to its Constitutional size when they have helped create it.

    Some times you take what you can get to slow the communists down. That’s what Scott Brown was, a possible roadblock to Obamacare.
    The northeast is never going to give you a Jim DeMint

  31. #31
    On September 10th, 2011 at 10:10 pm, OK_Loyalist said:

    Was reading this at The Hill.

    Obama dragging down Democratic candidates in House special elections.

    “The whole national debate has moved away from what the Republicans have done with Medicare to the national dialogue that the president hasn’t been able to talk about the economy effectively and that hurts congressional Democrats,” said one top Democratic strategist who asked not to be named so he could speak candidly.

    I love this. A top Democratic strategist wanting to keep Medicare in the debate. Guess he/she was gone the day that it was announced that Obamacare is stripping $500 Billion out of Medicare. Most definitely, let’s keep that in the debate.

  32. #32
    On September 10th, 2011 at 10:28 pm, happyscrapper said:

    On September 10th, 2011 at 8:50 pm, Pasadena Phil said:

    Phil…Don’t you get it??? Not every ballot HAS a conservative to vote for!! That is what I was saying! We don’t have enough Tea Party candidates yet. We will have more as we go along. But what the heck are we supposed to do when there is a dem, and republican and NO conservative on the ballot? Vote for a third party independent and give the vote away to a dem? You really are stuck on stupid.

    Bah…I’m going to bed!!!

  33. #33
    On September 11th, 2011 at 9:30 am, 1ConcernedMom said:

    Gotta love this.

    Democrat endorses Republican! Yes!

  34. #34
    On September 12th, 2011 at 11:58 am, RedDog said:

    The special election to replace the self-proclaimed author of Obamacare and junk-Tweeter extraordinaire Anthony Weiner is Tuesday, and right now it isn’t looking good for the Democrats.

    Never underestimate the power of the big D machine to steal the vote.

  35. #35
    On September 12th, 2011 at 12:01 pm, RedDog said:

    In 2008, Barack Obama carried New York’s 9th District 55 to 44 percent, so the Dems having to fight to retain a congressional seat where no Republican has ever been elected to the House can’t be a comforting sign…

    If Turner wins, will Brian Williams and the rest of the Vichy MSM call it a referendum on the Obama regime or will they just go AWOL? I’m betting on AWOL.

  36. #36
    On September 12th, 2011 at 9:04 pm, BK said:

    On September 12th, 2011 at 11:58 am, RedDog said:

    Never underestimate the power of the big D machine to steal the vote.

    Agreed.

    Yoda says “The Marx side, do not underestimate.”

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