Bill Gertz has a worrisome report today about a China sub stalking the USS Kitty Hawk. But one submarine blogger is taking it in stride. Retired submarine officer Bubblehead and his commenters weigh in with an interesting perspective:

[T]he Song-class diesel boat was spotted on the surface about five miles from the Kitty Hawk. So, either the Chinese were trying desperately to let us know that they could get that close to us, or this is another of a series of attempts by the Chinese to send their submarines farther afield where they just can’t seem to stay undetected and/or submerged. Since they have nothing to gain by taunting us like that, I vote for the second option.

For some background: the Chinese were probably interested in checking out preparations for the Annualex 18G exercises taking place south of Kyushu. The media will probably try to make a big deal out of the presence of Asheville and Seawolf in the exercise, and claim that even our vaunted nuclear attack subs couldn’t stop the Chinese sub from approaching the carrier. Even if that is true, it’s more likely that the subs would have been some distance off, tasked with preparing for the exercise. To re-iterate: any decent diesel boat could approach this close to a carrier during peacetime. This doesn’t mean they could do it during periods of heightened tensions. The Chinese Song-class sub is a tiny little 2,250 ton boat that is the first indigenously-designed Chinese boat; it’s probably about two generations behind Western or Russian diesel boats.

Any other submariners care to weigh in?

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Reader Steve e-mails:

I served on a fast attack sub & I concur with the bubblehead who commented. It’s no big deal. However, I am willing to bet that one of our nuclear subs who detected the diesel sub, alerted the carrier (and the anti-sub helicopters) and was actually tracking the diesel.

Steve Brock
USS Lapon SSN661

Reader Rob S.:

As a former submariner (USS Louisville SSN724), I agree with Bubblehead’s analysis. Although China seems to be fielding more capable subs as of late, they are still lagging by a generation or two compared to technological capabilities of our current (although dwindling) sub fleet. I don’t necessarily agree that the Chinese sub’s broaching (inadvertent surfacing) was in this case a function of their lag in technologically; more often it is a lack in shipboard operational proficiency or a tactical understanding of the ocean environment. He is right on about the likelihood of the two “in-theater” boats - the Seawolf and the Asheville - being far off in preps for the exercise, as this is the standard scenario for military exercises involving submarines.

Reader Arnold:

Dear Michelle,

I smiled when I read the newspaper’s account of this Chinese submarine.

First, unless it is wartime what do they expect the US to do when a diesel submarine approaches? Blow it out of the water? US aircraft groups are always shadowed by Russian submarines (or almost always) when they are anywhere near Russian territory. But unless there’s good reason to believe there is about to be an attack, US submarines won’t blow them out of the water. They will, however, take the opportunity to observe and record.

Second, the Navy will not generally comment on whether they detected the Chinese submarine or not. Any decision to do so would have to take place at the level of the Pentagon or higher. The reasoning is simple: you don’t want the enemy to know your vulnerabilities OR your capabilities. The only way to know whether this diesel sub was being tracked or not is to wait until we are at war with China. Even then you might never know since the poor, noisy thing would probably be at the bottom of the sea before it ever got within a dozen miles of a US aircraft carrier group.

If you’re a betting person, put chips on the fact the Chinese sub’s whereabouts were known the second it left Chinese ports. The fact it was able to surface within visual distance of a USS aircraft carrier is due to the simple fact that we are not at war with China — yet. I pity the Chinese sub’s crew if they try that during wartime.

More discussion.

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