So far there seem to be no real surprises in Nevada — especially since three of the four GOP candidates aren’t even currently in the state — but the caucus voting is still going on:

With a huge lead in polls, Republican front-runner Mitt Romney appeared poised for an easy win in Nevada on Saturday that would put him in firm command of the party’s see-sawing presidential nominating race.

A Nevada victory would be Romney’s second win in a row and his third in the first five contests in the state-by-state battle to find a Republican challenger to President Barack Obama in November’s general election.

Two polls taken this week in Nevada showed the former Massachusetts governor with a lead of 20 points or more over top rival Newt Gingrich after recapturing his front-runner status with a convincing win in Florida on Tuesday.

The caucuses began at many of the 125 sites around Nevada on Saturday morning, although final results were not expected until after 7 p.m. PST (0300 Sunday GMT). A final gathering of voters to accommodate Jews observing the Sabbath on Saturday will begin in Las Vegas at that time.

As for the actual voting, early on it appears to be falling in line with most of the polls.

The day hasn’t been without its problems:

Caucus-goers eager to take on their civic duty today were met with chaos and confusion at Green Valley High School in Henderson.

Frustrated voters tell Action News that some in attendance were given “unofficial” ballots. Several people cast their votes on unauthorized pieces of paper and left before the official blue ballots were handed out.

Witnesses were alarmed that their peers’ votes would go uncounted and blamed the caucus leaders for the disorganization.

For a minute there I thought they were going to say the ballots somehow had Harry Reid’s name pre-checked.

After today’s over, upcoming caucuses are Maine, Colorado and Minnesota. Super Tuesday is just over a month away. Who will be left standing?

I’ll post an update later when there are some solid numbers in.

Update: Fox5 has the latest. No surprises here:

The Nevada Republican Party announced the first results of the state’s presidential caucus Saturday, showing former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney with the early lead.

Romney scored victories in rural Eureka County, as well as Humboldt, Storey, Churchill and Pershing counties.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich won Mineral County, while Texas Rep. Ron Paul easily won Nye County with 46 percent of the vote and scored a second victory by winning neighboring Esmeralda County.

Also, Business Insider reports that tonight Newt Gingrich will “lay out a delegate-based strategy that will allow him to make good on his promise to stay in the race until the Republican National Convention this summer.”

Update II: This was about as surprising as finding out Harry Reid doesn’t plan to propose a budget this year: ABC calls it for Romney.

The chase for runner-up between Gingrich and Paul is still too close to call. Santorum will finish fourth.

Update III: The latest numbers:

**Written by Doug Powers

Twitter @ThePowersThatBe

Fifty delegates are at stake in today’s winner-take-all Florida primary. The polls close at 8 p.m. EST. Let’s kick off an open thread for comments on the results as they come in. As of 9:15 p.m. with 78% of the precincts reporting, Romney is up on Gingrich 47% to 32% Santorum has 13%, Paul is at 7%, and in Palm Beach County I’m told there were three five accidental votes for Pat Buchanan.

CNN has an up-to-the-minute vote tally and county results here. No word yet on who’s ahead in the cracker counties.

We’ll have updates as soon as anything worth mentioning happens. Feel free to talk amongst yourselves!

Update: Networks saying they’ll be able to call it at 8 p.m. Romney it is.

Update II: CNN calls it for Romney. Ditto for Fox News.

Delegate count after tonight with 1144 needed: Romney-84, Gingrich-27, Santorum-10, Paul-8 (h/t Curtis Kalin). The WSJ has it slightly different but you get the gist.

A little near future speculation on the delegate front:

With Mitt Romney’s win in Florida tonight, he has won all of the state’s 50 delegates – although there is some chance the outcome could be disputed because Florida’s winner-take-all allocation is technically in violation of Republican party rules.

But assume that the outcome holds, and that Mr. Romney also wins Virginia on Mar. 6, where only he and Ron Paul are on the ballot. Virginia awards all of its delegates to the winner if he or she gets at least 50 percent of the vote. By definition, the winner in a two-way race will have at least 50 percent of the vote, and the winner is likely to be Mr. Romney in a head-to-head contest against Mr. Paul.

That would give Mr. Romney a total of 96 delegates between Florida and Virginia alone (Virginia has 49 delegates, but three of them are automatic delegates, often called super delegates). Although this represents only 8 percent of the delegates that Mr. Romney would eventually need to cinch the Republican race, it would nevertheless constitute a tangible advantage in the event of a close back-and-forth race against Mr. Gingrich.

A reporter caught up with Gingrich to ask if he still sees a path to the nomination. “Of course…” (h/t HAP):

Update III: Good news: Rick Santorum said his daughter is doing much better after being hospitalized with a serious condition.

**Written by Doug Powers

Twitter @ThePowersThatBe

You can peruse my Twitter page for highlights and lowlights of the CNN GOP debate in Florida, but this basically sums it up:

Wolf Blitzer went all Oprah/TMZ with his fishing into the candidates’ wives’ lives.

Newt doubled down on open-borders stupid and gave an indignant defense of illegal alien grandmothers that the SEIU and La Raza would love. To which Romney aptly replied: “The problem isn’t 11 million illegal alien grandmothers.”

Rick Santorum and Ron Paul sparred over Latin American dictators and freedom-fighters. Paul supporters the former. Santorum supports the latter.

Paul shined where he’s strongest — providing a clarion stand against government bailouts. Santorum landed solid blows on health care and the individual mandate supported by both Romney and Gingrich. Romney failed to defend his painfully exposed Achilles’ heel, Romneycare — and bizarrely argued that we needn’t “get angry about it.” Smile while your budgets are hemorrhaging…

Santorum also said encouraging things about the need to get entitlements under control instead of spending on pie-in-the-sky moon missions. Then again, this is a guy who supported the massive prescription drug entitlement under Bush.

Sigh.

Blitzer devoted an embarrassing amount of time to Gingrich’s moon colonization plan, prompting Paul (here I am saying something positive about Paul again!) to jibe that the only people we need to send to the moon are some politicians.

Score.

I was glad to take my nose plugs off for a fleeting moment and appreciate some lively, substantive debate — even if it happened unintentionally between bouts of Wolf Blitzer-led bloviations and special interest-pandering. There was no Macarena, but Wolf and the candidates came pretty close.

Big loser: Gingrich.

Big gainer: Santorum.

Big surprise: Paul’s likeability factor, even if he is completely on the moon when it comes to Israel, jihadists, and national security.

Big, unchanged reality: Big Government Romney, Big Government Gingrich, and Not As Big A Government As He Voted For When He Was in the Senate But Still Too Big Government Santorum.

The journey/march/slog (towards a brokered convention??????) continues…

Tonight will mark the 17th Republican debate (but it doesn’t feel like it’s been a day over 16 debates). It comes just as Mitt Romney’s 22 point lead in Florida has disappeared, and Rasmussen now has Newt Gingrich with an 11 point lead on Romney with a week to go before the Sunshine State primary. As for Florida’s 50 convention delegates, it’s winner take all, and they know it:

Before the Tampa debate started, Romney went after Gingrich in person and on the Florida airwaves.

At a campaign stop, Romney likened Gingrich to a pinball machine and suggested the former House speaker engaged in “potentially wrongful activity” in his consulting work over the past decade.

Romney then released his first negative ad of the campaign.

“While Florida families lost everything in the housing crisis, Newt Gingrich cashed in,” the TV ad says, noting that the former speaker made more than $1.6 million working for Freddie Mac. “Gingrich resigned from Congress in disgrace and then cashed in as a D.C. insider.”
[...]
Gingrich, meanwhile, is showing no signs of backing down.

During an appearance on ABC’s “Good Morning America,” he referred to Romney as “somebody who has released none of his business records, who has decided to make a stand on transparency without being transparent.” After initially balking, Romney is set to release personal tax records on Tuesday.

The debate starts at 9 p.m. EST on NBC. Moderator Brian Williams last seen putting an athletic cup in place in preparation for any potential fallout from his first question to Newt. You can watch live online here. I might throw in a comment or two on my Twitter feed while it’s going on.

Romney recently started airing his first anti-Newt ad in Florida. Here’s a preview of what you can expect from the recently put-on-his-heels “only electable candidate” tonight:

Related update: Sheldon Adelson drops another $5 million on pro-Gingrich super-PAC.

**Written by Doug Powers

Twitter @ThePowersThatBe

(Note: Scroll down for updates)

It’s finally the Palmetto State’s turn to weigh in:

Primary day at hand, fast-climbing Newt Gingrich told South Carolinians on Saturday that he was “the only practical conservative vote” able to stop front-runner Mitt Romney in the GOP presidential race. Romney acknowledged the first-in-the-South contest “could be real close” and prepared for an extended fight by agreeing to two more debates in Florida, next on the election calendar.

Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum braced for a setback and looked ahead to the Jan. 31 contest after getting the most votes in Iowa and besting Gingrich in New Hampshire. Texas Rep. Ron Paul made plans to focus on states where his libertarian, Internet-driven message might find more of a reception with voters; his campaign said it had purchased a substantial ad buy in Nevada and Minnesota, which hold caucuses next month.

The first contest without Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who dropped out this past week and endorsed Gingrich, was seen as Romney’s to lose just days ago. Instead, the gap closed quickly between the Massachusetts governor who portrays himself as the Republicans best positioned to defeat President Barack Obama and Gingrich, the confrontational former House speaker from Georgia.

Gingrich not only closed the gap quickly in S.C., but in a couple of polls I’ve seen he’s surpassed Romney:

According to an American Research Group survey released Saturday morning, 40% of people likely to vote in South Carolina’s GOP contest say they are backing the former House speaker, with 26% supporting former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 18% backing Rep. Ron Paul of Texas and 13% supporting former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania.

Will those numbers play out tonight? We’ll see. Any predictions? I think Newt will win, but not by that broad of a margin. Put me down for Gingrich 34 and Romney 30… maybe closer. Results should start coming in at 7:30 or 8 p.m. EST. I won’t be back home until about 10, so feel free to help keep everybody updated in comments if you’re watching.

Meanwhile, Drudge is reporting that Gingrich has canceled an appearance tomorrow morning on ABC’s This Week. Gee, I wonder why.

Update: That ARG poll cited above was pretty much spot–on. Fox News is reporting that with all precincts in, Gingrich had 40%, Romney 28%, Santorum 17% and Paul 13%.

DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz issued a statement after Gingrich’s win, and it’s clear the Democrats are still convinced Romney is going to be the nominee, because DWS didn’t even mention Newt:

“If tonight proved one thing, it’s that the central rationale of Mitt Romney’s campaign is cratering. He came into South Carolina with a 20-point lead — a state where jobs and the economy is the No. 1 issue — and the candidate who hung his entire candidacy on these issues, Mitt Romney, saw his support collapse.

Why? Because Mitt Romney’s been exposed as being out of touch with the middle class, and voters are seeing that he lives by another set of rules. He’s refused to level with voters, and now he’s in trouble. Anyone who goes into a state with a significant double-digit lead yet ends up losing that support in a week, is someone who is failing to connect.”

National Journal: Gingrich bound for Disney World. I guess Newt wasn’t kidding about trailing Obama around the country wherever he goes.

What was the reason for Newt’s late S.C. surge? Among other things, maybe we shouldn’t discount the Sarah Palin nod a few days ago.

Here’s Gingrich addressing supporters after his win:

**Written by Doug Powers

Twitter @ThePowersThatBe

Phew. So, it turns out:

Rick Santorum won the Iowa caucus.

Newt Gingrich’s ex-wife, Marianne, is getting her revenge. Live by scorched-earth. Die by scorched-earth, eh, Newt?

And Rick Perry is reportedly set to drop out today — removing another body from another GOP debate tonight in South Carolina and freeing up more time for more liberal media bashing, potential Romney gaffes, Ron Paul foreign policy screeds.

Looks like he is set to follow RedState founder Erick Erickson’s advice and endorse Newt:

While closer to Perry than Romney on some points, Perry campaigned on reducing the size and scope of Washington, privatizing social security, and fixing entitlements. Endorsing Santorum may leave Perry in good stead with his fellow evangelicals, but it would fly in the face of the limited government principles he outlines both on the campaign trail and in his national bestseller Fed Up!

Then there is the man who wrote the introduction to Fed Up!, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich.

I’m willing to bet that among activists in Texas, Newt Gingrich is more popular than Romney. His message has been rather consistent to Perry’s, including a man on a mission to gut Washington, D.C. While Gingrich lacks Perry’s limited government bona fides, he is the only other candidate in the race emphasizing that business as usual in Washington is not acceptable if the nation we love is going to survive – as Gingrich wrote in his introduction: “Devolving power out of Washington is critical to our long-term survival.” And that’s the truth.

But Erickson wrote the truth back in 2009, when he expressed deep-seated grass-roots conservative discontent and distrust of Newt:

Newt endorsing Scozzafava aligns him with Markos Moulitsas who declared Dede the most liberal candidate in the race.

That aligns Newt with ACORN, which has twice endorsed Dede.

That aligns Newt with Planned Parenthood and NARAL, active supporters of Dede.

That aligns Newt with the SEIU, the AFL-CIO, and a host of other left wing interest groups including the gay marriage lobby.

Today Newt Gingrich stands athwart history and pees on the legacy of 1994, where it is no longer about principles, ideas, ideals, and integrity, but the raw acquisition of power for the sake of power. He aligns with a candidate to the left of the Democrat.

The GOP will not take back power until it repents of its sins that caused it to lose power. And chief among those sins was the abandonment of principle for the sake of power. But when a political party stands for nothing, it fails to stand.

At least we can thank Newt today for declaring himself out of the 2012 race. Or, should he stay in, conservatives at least no longer have to feel under any obligation to stick with him, since he makes clear in NY-23 as he did in MD-01 that he feels under no obligation to stick with conservatives.

Here is the awful GOP conundrum. We have a liberal Northeastern Republican front-runner, Mitt Romney, who can’t articulate conservative principles. And we have a Beltway insider with massive moral baggage, Newt Gingrich, who believes he’s above living conservative principles. Via Hot Air:

[Ex-wife Marianne Gingrich] kind of guessed it, of course. Women usually do. But did she know the woman was in her apartment, eating off her plates, sleeping in her bed?

She called a minister they both trusted. He came over to the house the next day and worked with them the whole weekend, but Gingrich just kept saying she was a Jaguar and all he wanted was a Chevrolet. “‘I can’t handle a Jaguar right now.’ He said that many times. ‘All I want is a Chevrolet.’”

He asked her to just tolerate the affair, an offer she refused.

He’d just returned from Erie, Pennsylvania, where he’d given a speech full of high sentiments about compassion and family values.

The next night, they sat talking out on their back patio in Georgia. She said, “How do you give that speech and do what you’re doing?”

“It doesn’t matter what I do,” he answered. “People need to hear what I have to say. There’s no one else who can say what I can say. It doesn’t matter what I live.”

Noseplugs, anyone?

***

Perry post-mortem: I see that Team Perry is already blaming “fringe” pundits for exercising inordinate influence on voters.

Newsflash: Perry did himself in. All by himself.

***

Should be quite a Final Four debate tonight. Will the Non-Romneys focus more on each other? Or the lib CNN moderators? More SuperPAC-a-palooza whining? Submit your debate questions here.

***

Update 11am Eastern Rick Perry announces suspension of his campaign. Throws endorsement, as expected, to Newt Gingrich. Absolves him for not being “perfect” and preaches redemption ahead of Marianne Gingrich “open marriage” interview with ABC News.

Perry: Newt is a “visionary” who can “transform our country.”

How about less transformation and more restoration?

Perry’s last words: “I have just begun to fight” for conservatism.

Good to know.

And now…Rick Perry can now make Washington more inconsequential in Americans’ lives — by making it more inconsequential in his.

***

Flashback video via Drudge Report: Perry slams marital cheaters. “If you cheat on your wife, you’ll cheat on your business partner:”

Another Republican debate showdown. Fox News Channel hosts the final five GOP in Myrtle Beach, S.C. starting at 9pm Eastern.

The hosts: Bret Baier of Fox News’ ‘Special Report’ and Gerald Seib of the Wall Street Journal.

You can watch live online here.

Twitter users can play “#dodge” or “#answer” .

Seven more GOP debates from now through March 19.

Have we reached an over-saturation point?

January 19, 2012 8pm ET on CNN
Location: Charleston, SC
Sponsor: CNN and the Southern Republican Leadership Conference
Participants: Romney, Gingrich, Santorum, Paul, Perry*

March 19, 2012 9pm ET on PBS
Location: Portland, OR
Sponsor: Oregon Public Broadcasting, NPR, PBS, The Washington Times and the Oregon Republican Party
Participants: TBD

The silver lining? No more smarmy Huntsman.

***

Update: The Non-Romneys tried to recover from their utter incompetence last week. They backed away from the most extreme Occupier rhetoric on Bain Capital, and instead carped about SuperPAC ads. (Newt learned from last debate not to hide behind NYTimes. Invoked Wall Street Journal instead.)

Santorum curiously made his stand in favor of ex-felons voting and complained about a SuperPAC ad that mentioned his Senate record on that issue.

Perry dodged a question about his “vulture capitalism” rhetoric by calling on Romney to release his income tax returns.

Rick Santorum tried to rationalize voting against right-to-work by explaining it’s because he was representing Pennsylvania.

Not exactly the kind of “bold leadership” skills he accuses his opponents of lacking.

Perry’s best moment: Taking on Obama over voter/photo ID fight with South Carolina. Gov. Nikki Haley, Romney supporter, applauded.

Romney stutters on question about his vote for assault weapons ban, whether he has hunted since 2007.

Skipped Ron Paul foreign policy screed.

Gingrich whines about SuperPACs. Romney complains about SuperPACs.

Romney admits: “McCain Feingold was a disaster.”

(But hey, he’s proud of his BigGovRepub McCain endorsement!)

Gingrich and Perry supporters on Twitter are over the moon. (Vid of Gingrich vs. Juan Williams on welfare and standing ovation from crowd here.)

Exit question: Too little, too late?

Inconvenient reminder of core incompetencies. Good debate nights can’t fix those.

***

Washington Times, Joseph Curl: Goodbye, Newt, and good riddance

***

Romney endorser Nikki Haley tweeted tonight: “Great debate tonight in South Carolina! The energy of the people in the state is electric!”

FNC’s Sean Hannity agreed.

Transcript of the debate via @FoxNewsInsider here.

The South Carolina primary is a week from tomorrow, and according to Rasmussen, Newt Gingrich is, as Ron Paul might say, nibbling at Romney’s heels:

Mitt Romney still holds first place in the South Carolina Primary field, while his opponents jockey for second with the voting eight days away.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in South Carolina finds Romney ahead with 28% support, but now former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is in second place with 21% of the vote. Support for former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum who was in second a week ago has fallen back to 16%, putting him dead even with Texas Congressman Ron Paul who also earns 16%.

Maybe the “dog on the roof” ads have been working. I’m told by unreliable sources that the Newt camp is producing two other anti-Romney ads along the same lines entitled “bunny on the bike rack” and “cute kitten in the glove compartment.”

Newt’s latest ad against Romney leaves the dog behind and instead unleashes a little French taunting:

(h/t Allahpundit)

**Written by Doug Powers

Twitter @ThePowersThatBe

Romney and McCain: The GOP Frenemies’ Club
by Michelle Malkin
Creators Syndicate
Copyright 2012

Michael Corleone said to “keep your friends close, but your enemies closer.” But what, pray tell, do we do with our frenemies? This is the awful, election-year quandary of movement conservatives. And everything you need to know about our heartache can be summed up in one image:

2008 presidential election loser John McCain and Mitt Romney together on the campaign trail.

When they’re together, they look like they’re holding each other (and the rest of us) hostage. Their toxic chemistry makes seething, ex-newlyweds Kim Kardashian and Kris Humphries look like Fred and Ginger. In New Hampshire last week after Romney’s Iowa caucus squeaker, an overly giddy McCain mocked his endorsee for his “landslide victory.” Awkward.

Then in South Carolina on Friday, McCain mistakenly referred to Romney as “President Obama” – as Romney and South Carolina GOP governor Nikki Haley rushed to correct the gaffe. Freudian slip? Senior moment? Sabotage? All of the above?

Of course, if you choose to pal around with a double-talking, big government barnacle, you get what you deserve.

McCain is the entrenched incumbent Arizona senator/war hero who lost to a neophyte, radical leftist community organizer from Chicago. The “straight-talk” GOP candidate flip-flopped on everything from illegal immigration to global warming to offshore drilling to closing Gitmo. He pandered to minority grievance-mongers and the liberal media. He proposed massive government interventions bigger than Obama’s.

This Beltway fossil who now poses as a Tea Party hero proudly teamed with Big Government liberals Teddy Kennedy and Russ Feingold. He’s the “maverick” who supported the $700 billion TARP bailout, the $25 billion auto bailout, the first $85 billion AIG bailout, and a $300 billion mortgage bailout – yet, who now carps about “record deficits and debt.”

A career politician for the past 30 years, McCain set the stage for the suicidal anti-capitalist rhetoric now polluting the GOP primary. Four years ago this month during a GOP primary debate held at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, it was McCain up on stage denigrating Romney’s private-sector experience. Asked whether he thought Romney’s record as CEO made him qualified to lead, McCain snarked: “I know how to lead. I led the largest squadron in the United States Navy. And I did it out of patriotism, not for profit.”

Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, and Jon Huntsman have all followed suit, bashing Romney’s venture-capitalist past at Bain Capital with Occupy Wall Street-style zeal.

It’s one thing to carefully dissect Romney’s investments, as the Wall Street Journal did, and weigh his wins against his losses. (The paper found that “in total, Bain produced about $2.5 billion in gains for its investors in the 77 deals, on about $1.1 billion invested. Overall, Bain recorded roughly 50% to 80% annual gains in this period, which experts said was among the best track records for buyout firms in that era.”)

It’s quite another to shamelessly disparage those who work in private equities as immoral corporate raiders and avaricious job-killers, as the three aforementioned GOP Occupiers have done. If they keep it up, they’ll soon be chaining themselves together with bike locks performing “mic checks” and “down twinkles” at the next GOP debate.

Gingrich has pushed McCain’s profit-bashing line the furthest. Backed by a super PAC (the very campaign finance vehicle he was whining about last week) flush with $5 million from casino mogul Sheldon Adelson, the vendetta-driven former House Speaker accused Romney and a “handful of rich people” of “looting” companies. Channeling left-wing propagandist Michael Moore, Gingrich railed that Bain “manipulate[d] the lives of thousands of other people.” Gingrich – who raked in millions consulting for the taxpayer-subsidized Freddie Mac racket — also served on the advisory board of private equities firm and leveraged buyout experts Forstmann Little.

But, hey, it’s only “looting” if it doesn’t line your own pockets.

Mitt Romney’s chronic flip-flopping political career is teeming with reasons for grass-roots conservatives to oppose his nomination — from his support for racial preferences and government funding of abortion, liberal judges, global warming enviro-nitwittery, TARP, auto bailouts, the Obama stimulus, gun control, and of course, the Massachusetts individual health insurance mandates that presaged Obamacare. But instead of focusing on his long political record of expedience, incompetent non-Romneys have borrowed from McCain’s 2008 playbook and thrown wealth creators of all kinds who take risks in the private marketplace under the bus.

With frenemies like these, who needs Democrats?

Place your bets, cross your fingers, hold your breath, clip your noses. Whatever it takes. Most polls will close shortly at 8pm Eastern.

According to this tweet from the NYT’s Brian Stelter, “Network execs privately say they expect to be able to call NH for Romney at 8pm sharp. The race for 2nd will take longer.”

The Union Leader says turnout has been slow and steady.

You’ll find up-to-date vote totals here.

In other campaign-related news, the abysmal incompetence of the non-Romneys continues to shine: Jon Huntsman failed to qualify for the Arizona ballot. And via Allahpundit, here’s a graphic representation of GOP non-Romney epic fail.

***

Update 8pm Eastern: And just as predicted, the nets have already called the race for Romney. Non-Romneys standing by.

With 14 percent of precincts reporting, it’s:

Romney 36%
Paul 24%
Huntsman 18%
Gingrich 10%
Santorum 10%
Perry 1%

Who wants nose plugs?

Photoshop: Reader Jimmy D.

***

Update 9:13pm Eastern Ron Paul is spiking his isolationist/class warfare/bring all the troops home now football.

Oy.

With 30% of precincts reporting in New Hampshire, Romney (36%) leads Paul (25%) and Huntsman (17%).

Update 9:34pm: Huntsman places third, declares “we are in the hunt.”

Santorum in fourth says he’ll go on to South Carolina. Ditto Newt, who vows to “shock” the country.

Oy.

Jim DeMint tells Mark Levin that Romney will win S.C.

Update 10:17pm Eastern: Bottom of the barrel-scraper Rick Perry is still occupying Occupy Wall Street land, blasting Bain’s “vulture capitalism.” Nuts.

Sigh. Let me say that again: Siiiiiiiiiiiiiigh.

If you were unfortunate enough to watch Saturday night’s GOP debate in New Hampshire, you saw a pageant of feckless non-Romneys fail to step up to the plate and forcefully challenge Mitt Romney’s presumptive claim to the GOP presidential nomination. Newt Gingrich, who has spent the last week whining about the liberal media, hid behind the liberal media when asked about attacks of Romney’s private-sector record at Bain Capital:

NEWT GINGRICH (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Well, I — I haven’t seen the film, but it does reflect “The New York Times” story two days ago about one particular company. And I think people should look at the film and decide. If it’s factually accurate, it raises questions.

GINGRICH: That was, I think, “The New York Times” story two days ago. They took one specific company. They walked through in detail. They showed what they bought it for, how much they took out of it and the 1,700 people they left unemployed. Now that’s — check “The New York Times” story, but that’s their story.

Leaning on the Fishwrap of Record as a crutch instead of owning up? This isn’t just cartoon-ish behavior. It’s poltroon-ish behavior.

With his incessant bashing of how the private equity industry works in the real world, Newt (along with Rick Perry) is morphing into an Occupy Wall Street zealot.

Or a David Axelrod:

His rivals have sought to turn his Bain tenure against him. Rick Perry has run an ad saying Mr. Romney “made millions buying companies and laying off workers.” Newt Gingrich has said Mr. Romney should “give back all the money he’s earned from bankrupting companies and laying off employees over his years at Bain.”

Mr. Gingrich laced into Mr. Romney at this weekend’s debates, and a group associated with the former House Speaker plans to release a 28-minute documentary blistering Mr. Romney’s Bain tenure. Meanwhile, on ABC on Sunday, Obama strategist David Axelrod criticized Mr. Romney as “a corporate raider.”

Mr. Romney describes job losses and bankruptcies as an inevitable byproduct of the capitalist system, and has said that in some cases, eliminating some jobs may save the rest of the company. In response to Mr. Gingrich, Mr. Romney said: “Doesn’t he understand how the economy works? In the real economy, some businesses succeed and some fail.”

Asked in an interview about Bain’s bankruptcy and failure rate, Mr. Romney said that in buyout deals, “our orientation was by and large to acquire businesses that were out of favor and in some cases in trouble.” He added that Bain wasn’t the type of firm that stripped companies and fired workers, but instead, “our approach was to try to build a business. We were not always successful.”

FYI, the Wall Street Journal analysis of Bain’s mixed record during Romney’s tenure is here. Takeaway:

The Wall Street Journal, aiming for a comprehensive assessment, examined 77 businesses Bain invested in while Mr. Romney led the firm from its 1984 start until early 1999, to see how they fared during Bain’s involvement and shortly afterward.

Among the findings: 22% either filed for bankruptcy reorganization or closed their doors by the end of the eighth year after Bain first invested, sometimes with substantial job losses. An additional 8% ran into so much trouble that all of the money Bain invested was lost.

Another finding was that Bain produced stellar returns for its investors—yet the bulk of these came from just a small number of its investments. Ten deals produced more than 70% of the dollar gains.

…The Journal analysis shows that in total, Bain produced about $2.5 billion in gains for its investors in the 77 deals, on about $1.1 billion invested. Overall, Bain recorded roughly 50% to 80% annual gains in this period, which experts said was among the best track records for buyout firms in that era.

All of that will get lost as the Occupy rhetoric seeps into attack ads by Republicans that will send tingles down the legs of anti-capitalists everywhere from Gingrich’s new favorite newspaper, the New York Times, on down. Click on that link to read about the $5 million boost to a pro-Gingrich super PAC (yes, super PACs — those evil entities that Gingrich was whining about last week after his Iowa drubbing) that will saturate South Carolina with Occupy-style demagoguery. With Newt’s explicit approval and endorsement.

The latest evolution of anti-capitalism bashing by pathetic GOP candidates? Distorting Romney’s remarks about the private-sector ability to fire people who aren’t doing their job:

CBS News reports via Twitter:

Huntsman tells reporters in Concord: “Governor Romney enjoys firing people; I enjoy creating jobs.”

It’s a reference to this:

Mitt Romney, who’s under attack for his business record, said Monday that he likes to have the option of firing people.

“I like being able to fire people who provide services to me,” he told business executives from the Nashua Greater Chamber of Commerce, adding if he isn’t getting a “good service, I want to say, I’m going to get someone else.”

The point will get lost down the demagogic rabbit hole:

He added: “You know, if someone doesn’t give me the good service I need, I want to say, ‘You know, I’m going to get someone else to provide that service to me.’”

Mitt Romney’s chronic flip-flopping political career is teeming with reasons to oppose his nomination — from his support for racial preferences, to government funding of abortion, liberal judges, global warming enviro-nitwittery, TARP, auto bailouts, the Obama stimulus, gun control, and of course, individual health insurance mandates that presaged Obamacare.

Instead of focusing on his long political record of expedience, incompetent non-Romneys have morphed into Michael Moore propagandists — throwing not just Bain Capital under the bus, but wealth creators of all kinds who take risks in the private marketplace.

We’re screwed.

***

More…

Lori Ziganto advises: “Fight like a girl or lose, candidates!”

Kurt Schlichter nails the depressing conundrum:

“Romney ought to turn Bain to his advantage. It should be a plus. But then, he’s handicapped by being Romney.”

My friend Jeff Emanuel makes a point that Bain is a general weakness for Romney in a jobs/class warfare general election race with Obama — and several other Twitter friends point out that it is useful for Romney to be forced to answer Bain-bashing attacks now rather than later — but Jeff also acknowledges that “pro-market Republicans aren’t the ones who should be beating” the anti-capitalism drum.

Jim Pethokoukis: Romney has nothing to apologize for in his Bain career…

Of course, Romney and Bain weren’t in the game to create jobs. They were in it to make money for their investors and themselves. Then again, the same would go for Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Michael Dell, Warren Buffett, and just about every other successful entrepreneur and investor you could name. But that is the miracle of free-market capitalism. The pursuit of profits by creating value benefits the rest of society through higher incomes, more jobs, and better products and services. This isn’t “destructive creation”—like, say, crippling U.S. fossil fuel production before “clean energy” sources are viable—but “creative destruction” where innovation and efficiency sweep away the old and replace it with a more productive and wealthier society.

Update: Good for Rick Santorum…

Leaving the frozen event, Santorum also declined to take a shot at Romney over a remark earlier from the front-runner that he “likes to fire” workers who are not doing a good job.

“We try to hire good people, we try to keep them employed. If someone if obviously not performing their duty and their mission, obviously a business has a responsibility for the greater good of the business and the other employees to make sure that everybody there is pulling their weight,” Santorum said.

Asked whether Romney’s corporate takeover experience at Bain Capital would be a liability, Santorum said: “I’m not making it a liability. I believe in the private sector.”

Via The Right Scoop, Rush Limbaugh takes Newt to task.

Heckuva job, non-Romneys…

National Journal headline via Allahpundit: Capitalism Comes Under Fire in Republican Primary Campaign

***

Via The Right Scoop on MRC, here’s a Fox News video montage of the Occupy Republicans:

Phew. Are you ready? There are an estimated 614,000 active registered Republicans in Iowa. A small fraction of them will turn out tonight to vote in the first-in-the-nation GOP presidential caucus. The anticipated top three placers are a toss-up. Sunday’s PPP poll had it 20/19/18 for Paul, Romney and Santorum. Election Projection’s Scott Elliott posts his predictions:

Rick Santorum – 24%
Mitt Romney – 23%
Ron Paul – 22%
Rick Perry – 15%
Newt Gingrich – 9%
Michele Bachmann – 6%
Jon Huntsman – 1%

Traditionally, the Iowa caucus winnows down crowded fields.

But — egad — will any of the back-benchers actually drop out after tonight?

Jon Huntsman’s anemic vanity campaign has the support of Vogue Magazine, his wife and children, his deep-pocketed father, and very, very few others. But he’s not budging yet. He skipped Iowa to concentrate on New Hampshire, which holds its primary on Jan. 10. This means he’ll get to bloviate again about the need for moooooderation and civility during two more debates this coming Saturday and Sunday in Manchester. Despite his failure to organize a competent effort to get on the ballot in Virginia, he is publicly deluding himself (but certainly not New Hampshire voters) that he can “steam” ahead to South Carolina, Florida, and beyond.

Michele Bachmann is promising a “miracle” in Iowa tonight, but her numbers look dismal and the glow of her long-ago Ames straw poll win is a distant memory buried by a series of unfortunate campaign staff debacles/defections. Whatever the outcome, she said Monday she has no intention of dropping out and will fly straight to South Carolina.

Rick Perry, who followed Bachmann’s sizzle-and-fizzle footsteps in Iowa, will also follow her to South Carolina in hopes of a defibrillator-like campaign recharge. Perry says Santorum can’t beat Obama. But this comes from a guy whose “epic failure” in Virginia exposed utter incompetence — and whose first instinct was to sue the state (along with fellow Virginia ballot botcher Newt Gingrich) instead of accepting the consequences.

As for Newt Gingrich, he’s blaming Romney, a staffer that he hired, money, and, yes, his own reasonableness for his burst bubble. Newt’s been way past his expiration date for years. He’ll cling bitterly to this presidential campaign vehicle until the next p.r. ride comes along.

And then there’s this:

Well, I think that’s possible, although we have these two debates next weekend in New Hampshire. Candidates might hold on for those. Those have been great opportunities for people to make a stand and take advantage of somebody else’s mistakes.

So it’s possible that we’ll see the candidates go on for just a little while longer. The fact is, we might see these candidates go for quite a bit longer given the changes in Republican rules this time. We haven’t really focused on this. But, you know, we’ve become accustomed to Republican races that get settled pretty quick by those Super Tuesday contests.

Mathematically, they have pushed all those — pushed some big contests back. They’re requiring proportional representation in the contests that come before April 1. And that could have the effect of pushing this contest into April and May, maybe even into those final primaries into June.

A refresher on those rule changes:

Rule change #1: Except for Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada, no state can hold a binding primary or caucus before March 6, 2012. Any state that does, loses half its delegates to the national convention.

Consequence: In previous years, dozens of winner-take-all primaries took place early in the calendar, so the presumptive nominee was often clear after Super Tuesday or shortly thereafter. This cycle, most of the states holding primaries earlier than April changed their system so that delegates are split up proportionally instead of all being given to the candidate with the most votes. This could lengthen the nomination process because even if a candidate “wins” a particular state, that candidate may not strike a decisive blow in garnering delegates.

In any case, we’ll update you as things get underway tonight. The process kicks off at 8pm Eastern.

You can catch up on Iowa Caucus primers galore and more here:

Des Moines Register
CBS News
Real Clear Politics
By the numbers
Iowa’s Sound and Fury – Michael Walsh, NYPost
Stacy McCain on Santorum’s surge

Many members of the punditocracy on the left and right are lamenting the Iowa caucus process and deriding Iowa voters.

I’d have no problem with a rotating first-in-the-nation slot and other systematic tweaks. But there’s a distinct air of sore-loser-dom in some of the complaints. Undecided voters in Iowa are simply reflecting the wider discontent among grass-roots conservatives and Tea Party activists with the current Pageant of the Imperfects. I told you these would come in handy, didn’t I?

Photoshop: Reader Jimmy D.

On the other side of the aisle, this USA Today headline is snort-worthy:

“Obama readying for re-election bid.”

When has the perpetual campaigner-in-chief ever not been in re-election bid mode?

Ouch. Sure, Gingrich is recognized in some circles as the “smartest” in the field, but, as George Coote once advised, every family should have three children — that way if one of them turns out to be a genius the other two can support him. Or in this case, get him on the Virginia ballot:

Former House speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas Gov. Rick Perry failed to submit enough valid signatures to qualify for the Virginia primary ballot, state GOP officials said Friday evening and early Saturday.

The Republican Party of Virginia announced early Saturday that Gingrich and Perry failed to submit 10,000 signatures of registered voters required to get their names on the ballot for the March 6 primary.

“After verification, RPV has determined that Newt Gingrich did not submit required 10k signatures and has not qualified for the VA primary,” the party announced on Twitter.
[...]
Earlier Friday, the Republican Party of Virginia certified former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and Rep. Ron Paul (Texas) to appear on the ballot.

Bachmann, Huntsman and Santorum also failed to qualify to appear on the Virginia ballot.

At last glance Gingrich had a slight lead over Romney in Virginia.

The Gingrich campaign says Virginia has a “failed system” and will now pursue a write-in campaign. Look for Newt to challenge Republican Party of Virginia officials to a series of Lincoln/Douglas-style debates.

**Written by Doug Powers

Twitter @ThePowersThatBe

Either there’s another Republican debate tonight or the one that started the other day hasn’t ended yet.

The Fox News debate is the last go-around before the Iowa Caucuses, after which the Hawkeye State can return to normal until the 2016 candidates start to nose around, which will be, oh, about three weeks after Inauguration Day 2012.

The latest Rasmussen poll shows Gingrich slipping:

According to Rasmussen, Romney is now in first place at 23 percent, while Gingrich has slipped to 20 percent. Texas Congressman Ron Paul comes in third at 18 percent.

The RCP poll average still shows Gingrich up by a few points over Romney followed closely by Paul.

If you’re not around a TV you can watch live online here. Start time is 9 p.m. EST.

So let’s get it started and throw the floor open for discussion. Tonight’s special drinking game rule: Double shot whenever any candidate jokes about making a bet with Mitt.

Update: Michelle’s Tweeting here.

I’ll have a few Twitter ramblings here.

**Written by Doug Powers

Twitter @ThePowersThatBe

Yes, I’m still struggling. Like many of you, I am still carefully weighing all the costs and benefits of each declared GOP candidate. As the candidates continue highlighting each other’s unsavory left-wing alliances, I thought it might be helpful to compile a Hold Your Nose Tracker of the current top four front-runners. I’m just giving it to you straight. One way or the other, the plugs will come in handy. This is the hand we’ve been dealt, alas. Same as it ever was. (Flashback February 2008: The John McCain Nose Plugs.)

Update: Latest Rasmussen numbers are out. Cain: 43. Obama: 41. “Cain is tied with Romney for the lead in the race for the GOP presidential nomination. Nobody else is even close at the moment.”

***

Newt Gingrich. This weekend, Gingrich called out Mitt Romney’s liberal Northeast Republican record. All well and good. But let’s not pretend away Newt’s own very recent strayings from mainstream conservatism. He snuggled up to Nancy Pelosi and Al Gore in 2008 (and laughably tried to spin the humiliating lovefest as a “debate”).

He went on tour with Obama Education Secretary Arne Duncan and race hustler Al Sharpton in September 2009 and again in November 2009:

He endorsed ACORN-friendly, Big Labor-backing, tax-and-spend abortion radical Dede Scozzafava in the NY-23 debacle in October 2009, prompting rank-and-file conservatives to send back his book and GOP solicitations like this one from reader Barnaby, who sent back his crossed-out Republican solicitation forms with a “NO RINOS” sticky note for Newt Gingrich:

He’s played footsie with Hillary Clinton on health care, backed an individual health care mandate and aspects of Romneycare, and vigorously attacked Paul Ryan’s free-market-based Medicare reform plan.

And a friendly reminder for grass-roots Tea Party activists who were against the government bailouts before it was cool: When push came to shove, Gingrich supported TARP.

***

Herman Cain. His endorsement of pal Alan Greenspan’s Fed tenure shows too much trust for the central banking bureaucrats who helped inflate the housing bubble and who, like Naked Emperor Henry Paulson, engineered the era of endless bailouts.

For all his Tea Party cred and outside-the-Beltway status, Cain fell for the gun-to-our-heads, Chicken Little propaganda and supported TARP — vigorously — when America needed every consistent fiscal conservative voice possible to try and stop the predictable, all-purpose morphing of the bank bailout before it started.

***

Rick Perry. He tried to embarrass rival GOP gubernatorial candidate Kay Bailey Hutchison in September 2009 by painting her as soft on radical community organizing/fraud outfit ACORN — only to watch the attack wither after conservative opponents found him championing the group’s government shakedowns at a pro-ACORN bill-signing in 2005.

He has adopted the illegal alien DREAM Act agenda and echoed their attacks on opponents as “heartless:”

(Texans, by the way, are revolting against Perry’s lax attitude. Texas A&M students are petitioning Perry to call a special session to repeal the DREAM Act. Texas Tea Party leaders want Perry to come home and address illegal alien sanctuary cities now.)

He’s knee-deep in crony Merck lobbying ties and cash, a pair of massive government subsidy slush funds for friends and donors, and his own Solyndra-style penchant for picking taxpayer “investment” winners and losers.

And yes, he was for, then against, the government-knows-best TARP intervention. This weaseling about his position on a core Tea Party issue is typical Beltway behavior:

***

Mitt Romney . He embraced Nanny State Sen. Edward Kennedy and the federal dollars Uncle Teddy brought to the table to help subsidize Romneycare.

He put Romneycare/Obamacare architect Jonathan Gruber on the map.

He took environmental advice from global warming zealot, eugenics/population control freak John Holdren, among other eco-command-and-controllers.

He stood by and watched NJ GOP Gov. Chris Christie smear Romneycare critics as “intellectually dishonest.”

Oh, and yeah: He supported TARP, too. And defends it today.

***

Gah.

***

As all of these candidates’ campaigns remind us — endlessly — there’s no such thing as a perfect candidate.

Yep, don’t we all know it? Politics is the Pageant of the Imperfects.

Every single one of these front-runners is a pro-TARP interventionist with a variety of problematic Big Biz/Big Government impulses and alliances.

Which one will do the least worst job against Obama in the debates, on the campaign trail, and ultimately in the White House? Which one will insult the base the least? Which one will actually have the energy, competence, and credibility to directly challenge Obama’s corruption, profligacy, class-warfare demagoguery, progressive pandering, and epidemic failures?

Watching, waiting, hoping, praying. And yes, preparing the nose plugs however this race turns out…

***

GOP debate viewership is nearly double the last presidential cycle’s.

The next one’s on Tuesday in Las Vegas, organized again by CNN.

Would be nice to get more conservatives to Occupy GOP Debates next time around.

I dream.