The European Union is in crisis. Again.

On May 29th, France is to hold a referendum on the recently drafted EU Constitution. French support for the Constitution has long been taken for granted. No longer. Recent polls show that a clear majority of likely voters intend to vote 'non' in the referendum -- between 51 and 55%, depending on the poll.

And it's not just the polls: a Morgan Stanley analysis from early March gives the Constitution less than a 34% chance of being adopted. As Eric Cheney, Morgan Stanley's chief Europe economist, told Le Monde earlier this week: "If I were to do these calculations today, the result would be worse."

For supporters of European political integration, this is bad news indeed. A 'no' vote would scrap the Constitution and throw into doubt Europe's future. It would also surely lead to political upheaval in France, where the government and both major parties strongly endorse the Constitution.

What, you may be wondering, does any of this have to do with immigration? Everything. Though opposition to the Constitution is complex -- especially on the left -- resistance to eventual Turkish accession to the EU consistently scores first in surveys. The Constitution itself does not address the Turkish quesiton.

French voters, on left and right alike, simply don't see the advantage of inviting an impoverished Muslim state with a rapidly growing population to join their club. As the North Sea Diaries blog put it:

"The nightmare for French politicians has come true. They have singularly failed (so far) to divorce the question of Turkey's membership of Europe from the question of the Constitution. Turkey concerns the French electorate much more than, say, the British; in France, it's believed that a populous, poor Muslim state poses a direct threat to their values and their jobs."

Chirac's government only has itself to blame. Its Turkish policy has consistently run counter to voters' wishes. Should the 'no' vote prevail on May 29th, it will be, among other things, a victory for spite.