Eight days to go before the UK general elections and the New York Times' Adam Nagourney is already calling it: Labour wins by a landslide.

To prove his point, Nagourney offers a fancy graphic of a poll taken last week which gives a 13 point lead to Labour. Recent weeks have seen scores of polls. While none show the Conservatives ahead (the majority have Labour leading by between 5 and 10 points), only one poll -- the poll cited by Nagourney -- puts the Labour advantage at +13.

Gee, I wonder why they chose that one...

As a matter of fact, the election is much closer than the Times' story suggests. Today's Guardian thus leads with news of a private Labour poll showing it with a mere 2 point advantage in contested marginal seats (the seats their opponents hope to win). The latest MORI poll -- the most recent poll to date -- similarly gives Labour only 2 points. As the UK Polling Report blog notes:

The topline figures show Labour support falling and both the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives gaining support. This is the highest level of Lib Dem support, the smallest Labour lead and the lowest Labour share of the vote recorded in any non-internet pollster since the beginning of the campaign.

That makes two polls showing Labour on the ropes. Does this mean Labour will lose the election? Who knows. For the moment, the most one can reasonably say is that, faced with renewed criticism over Iraq and an aggressive Tory push on "character" issues, the Labour campaign is beginning to show cracks.

Back to the Times story. Nagourney would have us believe that the Tories are running a Republican-style "values" campaign. Having set up this false premise, he then cites some implausible polling data to "prove" that it's hurting Tory chances. A Democratic Party pollster seems to agree with him:

"You can't ride the conservative tide from America here," said Stanley Greenberg, a Democratic pollster from the United States who is advising Mr. Blair. "You have the leader of the free world being a self-conscious conservative, but based on ideas that seem foreign in Britain."

Great but I fail to see the point: Howard's not running on Bush themes.

As I note in my most recent piece for VDare, the Tory's decision to put immigration at the center of their campaign has forced Labour to fight an election that most observers assumed would be another landslide for Blair. Bush, for his part, studiously avoided any mention of immigration in the last campaign -- for fear of further alienating his base.

If there's a relationship between this year's Tory campaign and last year's Republican one, it's an inverse one.

Nagourney's story, in short, is just another example of how the Times' filters foreign news through a fundamentally domestic political imaginary. In this game of fantasy politics, the Tories are figured as proxy Republicans about to badly lose a general election. No doubt such pictures satisfy at the psychological level -- an advanced European consciouness (Nagourney/Blair) handing humiliating defeat to the promoters of an atavistic social agenda (Bush/Howard).

Good fantasy, bad journalism.

In the final paragraphs of his story, Nagourney revels at the spectacle of prominent Democrats puffing up the Blair campaign:

While it is hard to walk through Labor Party headquarters without spotting some familiar Democratic Party face who has flown over to help out - Bill Clinton appeared by satellite hookup to speak in support of Mr. Blair at a rally on Sunday - there are few if any American Republicans helping out the Conservatives. Mr. Bush, grateful for Mr. Blair's unwavering support on Iraq, has kept out of the contest.

Mr. Howard appeared exasperated Monday when he was asked what American president was supporting his campaign. "I'm more interested in the backing of the British people than the backing of American presidents," he said.

Howard's right: the British campaign is about Britain, not America. If only the Times could figure that one out.

Besides, he's better off without Bush.

***
Previous:

Labour Seeks to Outflank Tories on Immigration (04/22)
Suppressed Study Reveals 500,000 Illegals (04/17)
UK Elections: Tories Make It a Referendum on Immigration (04/10)
British Democracy Goes "Bananans" (04/07)
Immigration Reform Makes It an Even Closer Race (04/06)
target="new">UK Elections: Immigration Reform Makes It a Race (03/29)